Tag: Nicky Henderson

Cheltenham New Year’s Day Preview

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Punters won’t want to be nursing too much of a hangover with Cheltenham getting under way at 12.10 on New Year’s Day. There is some top quality National Hunt action to greet 2015 and there could be plenty of festival clues throughout the card.

There are some decent staying novice hurdlers in the opener and I see no reason to desert Brother Tedd after two easy victories for Philip Hobbs. The market suggests that Different Gravey and Zeroeshadesofgrey will fight out the finish but I am surprised to see Brother Tedd as big as 11-2. Assuming all eight stand their ground, he looks a rock solid each-way bet at those odds.

The second race will take some sorting out and the Aintree race won by Oscar Time may hold the key. Alfie Spinner would probably come out on top on the bare form but I liked the way that Our Father travelled into the race before lack of fitness told in the closing stages. The grey was a top novice a couple of seasons ago and David Pipe knows how to get them ready for competitive races like this.

Ptit Zig was very impressive at Ascot and can beat Champagne West in the Dipper Novices’ Chase at 1.20. He looks a classy recruit to fences and was thought good enough to contest the Champion Hurdle last season. The only slight concern is that it is his first sight of the Cheltenham fences but he should have too much speed for the Philip Hobbs runner.

The big handicap chase of the day at 1.55 looks wide open. I studied the form for this race in some detail before concluding that Splash Of Ginge could be the value bet. I was disappointed to see the bookies chalk him up as favourite but it is fatal to change your mind. The best odds guarantee will come in useful if he goes bigger than 6-1 on the day.

Knight Of Noir is the selection in the handicap hurdle at 2.30 after his promising first run of the season. He travelled well throughout but was just out-sprinted from the last by Morito Du Berlais. That horse has gone on to run well in top handicaps since so Knight Of Noir should go well despite a 5lbs weights rise.

Finally, I am siding with Rock On Ruby in the two and a half-mile hurdle over the Henderson duo of Vaniteux and Beat That. I am a great admirer of Beat That but this trip looks short of his best and it may be significant that Geraghty prefers Vaniteux. Rock On Ruby loves it here and always looked in control last time out.

Brother Tedd 12.10 @11-2 Skybet

Our Father 12.45 @7-1 Paddy Power

Ptit Zig 1.20 @11-8 William Hill

Splash Of Ginge 1.55 @6-1 William Hill

Knight Of Noir 2.30 @5-1 Ladbrokes

Rock On Ruby 3.05 @3-1 Coral

Newbury Monday Preview

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We had to settle for second place in both of the big Christmas features with Dynaste (King George 8-1) and Benvolio (Welsh National 14-1). The show moves on to Newbury on Monday with a decent card featuring the Challow Hurdle and the Mandarin Chase.

The Grade 1 Challow Hurdle has attracted a top quality field with the more established novices Blaklion, Parlour Games and Vyta Du Roc taken on by Arpege D’Alene. It should be close between Parlour Games and Blaklion on Cheltenham form but I am going to take a chance on the lightly-raced Arpege D’Alene. It looked a decent race that he won decisively at Ascot last month despite drifting out to 12-1. This will obviously be a tougher test but Newbury is one of the fairest tracks in the country and he can spring a surprise.

The Mandarin Chase can go the way of Alan King’s Ziga Boy who beat Silver Commander at Wincanton last time out. That was only the sixth start of his career so there is plenty of scope for improvement and a 9lbs rise may not stop him. The main danger is probably the consistent Knockranrawley.

Morito Du Berlais will have plenty of supporters after finishing third in a hot race at Haydock last time. He did not hurdle with any great fluency up the home straight so it was no disgrace to finish less than three lengths behind On Tour. I am going to oppose him with Wincanton winner Polamco who showed signs of inexperience before drawing clear of Muckle Roe. He has also gone up in the handicap but receives 7lbs from the Nicholls runner and that could prove significant.

The handicap chase at 1.05 is going to take some sorting out but I’m siding with Phone Home who should have won here last time out. He held a good lead at the last but lost concentration in front and allowed Bertie Boru to get up and beat him. I expect Brendan Powell to hold on to him a little longer this time before delivering his challenge.

Nicky Henderson can land a first and last race double with Top Notch and Clean Sheet. Both are exciting additions to the powerful Lambourn yard and have Cheltenham aspirations. Top Notch won both of his races in France comfortably while Clean Sheet was only beaten through fitness at Sandown last time out. Nicholls can also complete a double on the day with Far West in the 2.45 after a couple of promising efforts over fences.

Top Notch 12.30 @10-11 Paddy Power

Phone Home 1.05 @5-1 Paddy Power

Ziga Boy 1.35 @5-2 Ladbrokes

Arpege D’Alene 2.10 @6-1 Ladbrokes

Far West 2.45 @9-4 Bet365

Polamco 3.15 @5-1 Coral

Clean Sheet 3.50 @10-11 Paddy Power

Tara can spark Sandown double for Nicholls

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Sandown warms up for Saturday’s Tingle Creek Chase card with six races on Friday opening at 12.50 with a juvenile hurdle.

The form horse here has to be Baraka De Thaix after his fine third in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham last month. He made a bad mistake at the second last but stuck on gamely up the hill behind Golden Doyen. There aren’t many better four-year-olds on the scene at the moment and David Pipe’s grey should score.

The one I fear most is the Andrew Balding-trained newcomer Storm Force Ten. He was a decent handicapper on the flat, winning a good prize at the Chester May meeting. If he transfers that form to the jumps, he could make up into a decent prospect in the famous Waley-Cohen colours of Long Run.

The Grade 2 Winter Hurdle has attracted only five runners but four of them are unbeaten over hurdles. Nicky Henderson’s Vyta Du Roc is the obvious favourite after winning at Cheltenham last time but I am more taken with Tara Point. The grey is a daughter of Kayf Tara and has not been off the bridle to win her two starts for Paul Nicholls. It won’t be plain sailing with Ordo Ab Chao and Shantou Bob also in the field but Tara Point looks worth a bet at around 3-1.

The Nicholls and Twiston-Davies combination could make a quick return to the winners’ enclosure in the following handicap chase with Black Thunder. He was a promising novice last season and put up an excellent effort when second at Ascot in the United House Handicap Chase. He had the subsequent Hennessy Gold Cup third Merry King behind him that day.

He was beaten fair and square by Corrin Wood at Warwick last season but I am not convinced that he was at his best in the heavy ground. He looked far happier at Ascot last time and can make his fitness count against the McCain horse who is having his first run since the RSA Chase in March.

The final race on the card looks booked for Henderson’s Theinval who escapes a penalty for a win in a Conditional Jockeys’ race at Kempton last time. That was a big improvement on his first run, a common theme with Henderson’s horses this season. The one I fear most is Coup De Grace who ran on well to finish fourth at Cheltenham in a competitive handicap last time. He could be worth an each-way bet at a decent price.

Baraka De Thaix 12.50 @4-7 Betfair

Tara Point 1.55 @3-1 Coral

Black Thunder 2.30 @8-11 Skybet

Theinval 3.30 @9-4 Coral

Coup de Grace @8-1 Coral each-way

Racing Preview November 29th

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Our ante-post advice for the Hennessy Gold Cup was to go each-way on Smad Place and Many Clouds. I’m pleased to say that both horses are set to go in Saturday’s feature race at Newbury in a typically competitive renewal.

Denis O’Regan takes over in the saddle on Smad Place with both of Alan King’s regular riders side-lined through injury. The grey should run well and I haven’t lost any confidence in Many Clouds, despite his slight drift out to 9-1 in the betting. I am not a particular fan of Djakadam or Fingal Bay in the race with their limited jumping experience so I’m hopeful that we will get at least one of our runners in the frame.

Nicky Henderson has not had the best of weeks having had to admit defeat in his efforts to have Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig ready for their respective December targets. He has also admitted that he has been caught out by the soft ground with many of his top-of-the-ground horses in action at present. I am surprised that he has declared Triolo D’Alene for the Hennessy having frequently warned that the horse needs good ground. I tipped him last year at 14-1 but I’d be very surprised if he were to follow up this season.

Henderson could still have something to smile about on Saturday as Hammersly Lake can go one better than at the Cheltenham Open meeting. He was only beaten in a photograph by Roman Flight having travelled well throughout and he should go close off a 4lbs higher mark. David Pipe’s Home Run could be the danger as he was full of running when tripping up at Market Rasen last time out.

The Long Distance Hurdle should be a cakewalk for More Of That but I shall be watching the run of Shotgun Paddy with interest. He looks tailor-made for the Welsh National and this will tell us how fit he is for the Chepstow marathon next month.

Venetia Williams has her string in terrific form at present and is averaging a winner a day. The Clock Leary made a very impressive fencing debut at Ascot and runs in the 12.50 at Newbury on Saturday. The handicapper has lumped 12lbs extra on him for that win but a follow up looks extremely likely. Tara Road could be the main danger after winning on the bridle at Ffos Las. The handicapper didn’t miss him either and he is up 13lbs.

Over at Newcastle, I hope to see Irving get his Champion Hurdle campaign back on track after falling at Wincanton. It isn’t the greatest Fighting Fifth Hurdle ever run and he’ll need to win this if he has any chance at the festival in March.

Newbury

12.50 The Clock Leary @7-2 Bet365

1.50 Hammersly Lake @4-1 William Hill

3.00 Smad Place @10-1*

Many Clouds @9-1 Betfair

*Ante-post

Newcastle

2.05 Irving @Evens Betbright, Stan James

Greatwood Hurdle Preview

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The Greatwood Hurdle is the big betting race at Cheltenham on Sunday, for which the bookmakers have made Nicky Henderson’s Vaniteux the clear favourite.

Their odds are based on his excellent third behind Vautour in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the festival meeting in March. Many pundits consider Vautour a live prospect for the Champion Hurdle this season so it is easy to understand their reasoning.

It looked a good quality renewal of the Supreme with Josses Hill, a stable companion of Vaniteux, finishing in second and Irving and Gilgamboa among those well beaten. Henderson rates Vaniteux very highly but it may be worth remembering that he has only raced four times for Henderson and must carry top weight of 11st 12lb.

With the going certain to be testing, I would rather side with something at the other end of the handicap and Clondaw Warrior catches the eye. He is trained by Willie Mullins and won the November Handicap on the flat on his most recent start. That victory was off a mark 34lbs higher than his official rating when joining the Mullins stable.

He is yet to race over hurdles for his new stable but if he shows anything like the same improvement as he has displayed on the flat, he looks very leniently treated. Mullins has also declared Daneking but most bookmakers are offering non-runner/no bet on the race. He makes plenty of each-way appeal here at 8-1.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Goodwood Mirage tended to walk through his hurdles last season but showed more respect for them under a good ride from McCoy at Wetherby on his seasonal debut. He was useful on the flat but just seems too close to the top weight after a hefty 9lbs rise. Garde Le Victoire is also prone to clout a couple of flights and did so again when beaten by Hawk High at Aintree last time.

David Pipe relies on Imperial Cup winner Baltimore Rock but he is now 15lbs higher in the weights than when winning at Sandown. Pearl Swan was a promising novice for Paul Nicholls a couple of seasons ago but surely cannot overcome an absence of almost two years. His stable companion Katgary ran poorly at Aintree and will need to improve to figure here.

Vaniteux should run well but I am siding with Clondaw Warrior to make the weight tell in the closing stages and take the prize back to Ireland.

Clondaw Warrior @8-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Punchestown Wednesday Preview

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The highlight of day 2 of the Punchestown festival is the Gold Cup at 5.30. Unlucky Cheltenham runner-up On His Own is tackled by stable companion Boston Bob who steps back up to three miles after his Aintree victory.

Willie Mullins has never lost faith in Boston Bob but decided to go for the Ryanair rather than the Gold Cup after a poor preparation. He ran well but found the two and a half miles too sharp. I felt he would struggle to improve on that effort at Aintree but the leaders wilted in the closing stages and he surged through to grab the spoils.

It is interesting that stable jockey Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride him in preference to On His Own on Wednesday. The jury is still out on the Cheltenham Gold Cup form with so many horses involved at the finish. It is difficult to believe that On His Own came within a short head of lifting the Gold Cup if you go back to the start of the campaign where he was well beaten in an Aintree handicap. We’ll side with Ruby Walsh on this occasion and hope that his judgement proves correct.

I also like the look of Beat That for Nicky Henderson in the three-mile novice hurdle. The Albert Bartlett first and third are in opposition but that race also had form students scratching their heads. Very Wood ran out a 33-1 winner but Briar Hill fell and Kings Palace ran a lifeless race.

Henderson was on a roll at Aintree and you could have named Beat That the winner a mile from home. Barry Geraghty always looked to have plenty in hand but did not want to let him go too soon for his first time over three miles. He strode away to win well and I take him to beat the Cheltenham form on Wednesday.

There is also some good quality flat action at Ascot including the Sagaro Stakes. Our old friend Simenon is back on his favourite track having won twice here at the Royal meeting in 2012 and running Estimate to a quarter of a length in the Gold Cup last year. He’s been around the globe since then, finishing fourth in the Melbourne Cup. I’d love to see him bounce back here, although it will be tough against Tac De Boistron and Harris Tweed.

Graphic should confirm Doncaster Mile form with Fencing in the Paradise Stakes at 4.15. The winning margin was only a neck last time but the result was never in doubt and there could be more to come from this consistent performer.

Beat That 4.55 Punchestown at 2-1 Bet365

Boston Bob 5.30 Punchestown at 3-1 Bet365

Graphic 4.15 Ascot at 4-1 Bet365