Tag: Nicky Henderson

Welsh National Ante-Post Preview

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The Hennessy Gold Cup provided us with a 25-1 winner in Triolo D’Alene on Saturday and I believe that it may also have given us a clue to the outcome of the Welsh National.

Trying to second guess the running plans of the leading National Hunt stables is a gamble in itself but we got it right with Nicky Henderson’s runner. Apparently jockey Barry Geraghty had been pleading with the Lambourn trainer to keep Triolo D’Alene for the Grand National but he’s likely to be faced with a steep rise in the weights now. Geraghty tried to convince a group of journalists that a 3-4lb rise would be sufficient for Saturday’s victory but the general consensus is that he will go up by 10lbs.

There is one potential loophole for Henderson and that is the possibility of running Long Run. As a former Gold Cup winner he would automatically get top weight and Triolo D’Alene might get in off around 11 stone. As a previous winner of the Becher Chase, he has got a proper Aintree pedigree so I’m going to invest a little of Saturday’s winnings at 20-1 for Aintree.

Moving on to the prospect of a slog around Chepstow over Christmas and my eye-catcher from Newbury was Merry King. Jonjo O’Neill is a great supporter of the Welsh National and won it with Mini Sensation and Synchronised. In Merry King I believe that he as another ideal candidate.

I first noted him last season when he produced a gutsy display to finish second in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock. He refused to give in and just kept battling away right to the line, losing out on the nod to Cannington Brook. On his seasonal debut he ran on from midfield to finish second to Houblon Des Obeaux with Triolo D’Alene behind in third.

I always wondered if he would quite have the pace for the Hennessy and he was outpaced when they turned for home, plugging on at the one pace to finish fifth. The only horse that put up a more promising run with regards to the Welsh National was Rocky Creek but connections have stated their intention to run him in the Lexus Chase instead.

Another stable with multiple options is the in-form yard of Lucinda Russell. She has Silver By Nature and Nuts N Bolts entered and both ran well at Haydock recently. It appears that she is leaning towards running the former in Ireland but Nuts N Bolts would also be a leading contender here. Sydney Paget is the early favourite after winning easily at Haydock but he has gone up in the weights and is another with alternative engagements.

Grand National – Triolo D’Alene 20-1 Bet365, Coral

Welsh National – Merry King 14-1 Bet365, Coral

Newcastle Saturday Preview

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My Tent Or Yours is the headline horse at Newcastle on Saturday as he starts his Champion Hurdle campaign for Nicky Henderson. He runs in the colours of leading National Hunt owner JP McManus and will be partnered by champion jockey Tony McCoy.

Melodic Rendezvous looks his only serious rival but, as tough as he is, he does not look to have the speed to match the Henderson gelding. It would not surprise me to see the favourite put up an impressive display and be clear favourite for Cheltenham by the end of the day.

The Lambourn trainer came under intense pressure to supplement him for the Champion Hurdle in March after he had bolted up in the competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. He stuck to his original plan of going for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but was surprisingly held by Champagne Fever. I’m not quite sure whether the hill found him out that day but he oozed class when winning at Aintree next time and he is expected to win tomorrow.

It looks like being a good card for favourite backers with several strong favourites. Lucinda Russell has her string in fine form and can start the ball rolling at 12.05 with Green Flag. This one is on a hat-trick after an effortless victory at Ayr and he can follow up off a 6lb higher mark.

The second “banker” of the day is Oscar Rock in the 1.05. This one joined Malcolm Jefferson after winning two bumper races for Martin Fry last season and he looked like Cheltenham material on his hurdling bow. After pulling hard early on, he eased to the front before quickening clear to win by 19 lengths at Wetherby. There will be some long faces in the Jefferson camp if he is beaten tomorrow.

Tony McCoy should double up when he partners Full Shift for Henderson in the closing event. This one cost JP £170,000 after recording the best time of the day in his point-to-point. He is held in some regard and he is expected to bring the famous green and gold colours home in front on Saturday.

Although it will be hard to get even money about any of these, it may be worth throwing in an accumulator.

Green Flag 4-5 Bet365, Ladbrokes

Oscar Rock 5-6 Ladbrokes

My Tent Or Yours 4-5 Totesport, Betfred

+ accumulator above four

Full Shift

Hennessy Gold Cup 2013 Preview

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Last weekend’s Betfair Chase did not quite go to plan with Cue Card holding off Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti. All credit to anyone who kept faith in Cue Card but I just could not see him keeping up the gallop over the three mile and one furlong trip. His only previous effort had ended with a leg-weary fifth in the King George but the going was very testing that day.

It could be argued that he had improved for his seasonal debut when a disappointing third behind Somersby at Exeter. I noted Kumbeshwar running on to finish under a length down on Cue Card that day but he ran like a hairy goat in the Paddy Power Gold Cup! I can only assume that Cue Card improved a stone between Exeter and Haydock.

As far as the Cheltenham Gold Cup goes, I’d still back the second and third to beat Cue Card. Both will be entitled to improve a few pounds and won’t be unduly concerned if the going turns soft. In the more immediate future, the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday has attracted 23 runners at the five-day stage.

The weights are set to rise by about a stone following the withdrawal of Tidal Bay. The Hennessy has become something of a Gold Cup trial in recent seasons but it is hard to imagine there being too many clues this year. The top weight Cape Tribulation is rated 22lbs inferior to Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth so it is going to take a spectacular performance to earn a quote for the festival’s biggest prize.

There are some promising second season chasers here, notably Invictus who is bidding to overcome an absence of almost 20 months. I’m surprised to see him at the head of the market, even if he did count Bobs Worth among his victims in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot. It will be hats off to Alan King if he can get him fit enough to win this first time out.

Rocky Creek has also been well supported but I’ve been slightly disappointed with some of the Nicholls horses this season. He has acknowledged that they are needing a run to put them straight and Rocky Creek has always been workmanlike rather than spectacular. I much prefer the claims of Hadrian’s Approach who almost upset Unioniste here last season.

He recovered from a bad mistake to finish with a flourish that day, suggesting that a big prize would come his way before too long. He has continued to throw in the odd costly mistake and did so again at Kempton on his return. The bare form of that run is nothing to get excited about but it should have put him spot on. I remember a horse called Arctic Call winning this and he was prone to the odd blunder. More often than not, you can get away with them at Newbury and he looks a decent bet at 11-1.

After David Pipe’s recent successes, I’m respectful of the grey Our Father who seems to run his best races when fresh. It may be a shrewd move by Pipe to go straight for a big prize with this one. Jonjo O’Neill is never one to disclose his plans but it seems that Merry King has been aimed at this race. He ran well at Ascot when second to Houblon Des Obeaux and has a big pull in the weights. So too does the third horse Triolo D’Alene, the second string of Nicky Henderson. He looks far too big at 25-1 2ith Betfair.

Hadrian’s Approach 11-1 888Sport

Triolo D’Alene 25-1 Betfair

Greatwood Hurdle Preview

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The second big prize of the Open meeting at Cheltenham this weekend is the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday. The favourite is a horse that was a rare failure for the Nicky Henderson stable last season who failed to go on after finishing runner-up behind Olofi in this race.

Cash and Go revives painful memories as I had backed him at Ascot for the Ladbroke Hurdle on the strength of his performance in the Greatwood. Barry Geraghty is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished jump jockeys around but I think even he would admit that he got it all wrong on that occasion. He took a pull early on and practically left his horse blinded towards the rear of the 21-runner field. I’m sure that he was guessing at his hurdles and it was no surprise when Geraghty slid out of the side door after a mistake at the fourth.

The fact that he is favourite this year owes nothing to his subsequent efforts so I can only presume that he has been showing a lot more at home. Pine Creek won the William Hill Hurdle at Ascot last time out and certainly cruised into the race in good style. He did not win quite so easily as seemed likely and I’m not convinced that it was the greatest race. Neither of the front two makes any appeal at odds of around 6-1.

I have much more time for Sametegal at nearly twice the price, trained by Paul Nicholls. On the face of it he has a tough task under 11st 7lb having beaten Bayan by only a neck here last month. However, he had previous winner Handazan stone cold with half a mile to go and would have been more impressive with a stronger pace. He was a respectable third in the Triumph Hurdle and should run well.

My second selection is Kashmir Peak. He was beaten a mile in the Triumph but that was as a result of an early mistake and he is better judged on two meetings with Sametegal last season. He beat that rival by a length at Doncaster and was set to do so again at Musselburgh before unseating his rider four out. His four races on the flat have resulted in three placed efforts including a fine head second to Thomas Hobson at Newbury last month. If he transfers that improvement to hurdles he must have a good each-way chance.

I am also adding a second long-shot to my Paddy Power Gold Cup selection in the form of Astracad. Nigel Twiston-Davies has stated that he will run as long as the ground doesn’t turn soft and he also looks generously priced at 33-1.

Paddy Power Gold Cup Astracad (each-way) 33-1 888Sport

Greatwood Hurdle Kashmir Peak 12-1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor

Greatwood Hurdle Sametegal 10-1 Coral, Bet365

 

Geelong Cup Preview

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There were some long faces in Lambourn when Forgotten Voice missed out on his intended engagement in the Caulfield Cup last weekend. Plan B was hastily put into action with the nine-year-old now set to go in the Geelong Cup on Wednesday.

Nicky Henderson’s dual-purpose performer will have to produce something special to get a penalty large enough to get into the Melbourne Cup but he does look to have an outstanding chance of success. He is well known in England for being a much better horse on good ground so it is of some concern that the going is described as “dead” at Geelong with showers forecast.

From what I can understand, dead equates to no worse than good to soft in the UK which would make it a borderline decision whether Forgotten Voice will handle it. With the bookmakers in Australia offering only around 6-4 about the English raider, it is certainly worth holding off until you know the going at race time.

The Geelong Cup has become an important trial for the Melbourne Cup with Media Puzzle, Americain and Dunaden all scoring here on their way to Flemington. Last year, the former John Gosden trained Gatewood won this race in a last ditch attempt to qualify for the Cup. Others on that well-trodden path are Tanby, Brigantin, Ibicenco, Polish Knight and Moudre.

The trouble is that it is very hard to make a case for anything against the favourite. All of his rivals have been running poorly of late with the possible exception of Crafty Cruiser. He is the only one to have put in a half-decent effort when finishing fourth behind Araldo and Sea Moon at Flemington. He had previously won on heavy ground and would be an automatic choice if the heavens opened.

Forgotten Voice has a good draw in stall 6 and Brett Pebble should have no problems in holding him just off the pace. He has won on a variety of tracks and is currently rated 110 in the UK, 5lbs higher than the peak achieved by Verdant in his European racing days.

Provided that the rain stays away, Forgotten Voice should have too much class for this field. But keep an eye on the skies!

Forgotten Voice (Geelong Cup) 6-4 Sportingbet

Grand National Day Preview

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I’m pleased to be back in profit after a successful day 2 at Aintree. I hope that a few of you took a chance on the four-timer! Both of Alan King’s hurdlers rewarded each-way support at nice prices and only Tartak let the side down when tipping up in the Topham. Now for the big one!

I’ve long been a fan of On His Own for the Grand National and I see no reason to desert him at this stage. The 10-1 on offer with William Hill still looks like a fair bet to me. He probably would have liked a bit more rain as he did seem to be slowly away last year. Having said that, he could hardly have a better pilot than Ruby Walsh and he should be able to keep him in touch. I’ve also advised a little of the 40-1 each-way on Always Waining. Trainer Peter Bowen seems a little pessimistic about his chances of staying the trip but he is well used to the hurly burly of the National course and those odds are too good to pass up.

After Nicky Henderson fired off another four winners on Friday, you have to take him seriously when he suggests that Roberto Goldback is not without a chance. Henderson is too good a trainer to run horses in the National just for the sake of it and the horse definitely has the ground in his favour. He ran sweetly for Barry Geraghty at Ascot first time out and if he is that sort of mood the 33-1 with Coral might be worth a punt.

Friday’s card was all about favourites but Saturday looks far more testing. The Maghull Novices’ Chase at 2.15 will show whether Baily Green is as good as his Arkle second to Simonsig suggests. Overturn was on a hiding to nothing that day but will find this easier track much more to his liking and Alderwood steps out of handicap company after winning the Grand Annual. Whilst all three have obvious chances, the better value bet may be to take a chance on Sire De Grugy at 8-1. He was a decent hurdler but has always had the scope to make a chaser and, unlike his rivals, does not come here after a hard race at the festival.

The Grade 1 John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle over three miles puts the World Hurdle form under the spotlight with Solwhit, Celestial Halo and Smad Place meeting again. I expect the placings to be confirmed but I am more interested in Alan King’s Medinas, winner of the Coral Cup at the festival. He may be built like a pony but he has the heart of a lion and defied 11st 10lb at the festival under a great ride from Wayne Hutchinson. With Smad Place being the stable number one, Richard Johnson steps in for the ride and I’m hopeful that he can make it into the first three. Odds of 14-1 seems terrific each-way value. I also have a healthy respect for African Gold but he looks like a chaser in the making and may find this course a bit sharp.

On His Own 10-1 William Hill
Always Waining 40-1 Paddy Power
Roberto Goldback 33-1 Coral
Sire De Grugy 8-1 Bet365
Medinas 14-1 Paddy Power