Tag: Nocturn

Ascot 2013 – Each Way Betting Though The Card

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

I have been having some fun at Ascot this year by betting each way through the card. My fellow tipsters think I am crazy but I have already turned a profit of £300. The way I have been playing this madness is by studying the form of the races one by one and picking out the following.

1. Has the horse placed in its last three run out?
2. Has the horse run the distance in its last three run outs?
3. Whats the distance compared to the Racing Post Top Speed rating?
4. Who the stable is and jockey?
5. What is the Racing Post rating for the horse?
6. Has the horse run on this ground before and placed or won?
7. Is the price good for a mega EW accumulator or EW single.

Has the horse placed in its last three run out?

I always look for a horse that has shown it can run the race its been entered in for. I then look for if its been placed in the last three of its races. This gives me confidence that this horse can place again. With the right jockey and ground it will give me the place if its got a track record of placing and winning.

Has the horse run the distance in its last three run outs?

If the horse has never run the distance then it has to be a horse that is showing some improvement. But to be honest for this type of bet you really need to lower the odds and select a horse that has run in the same or a better class race and has placed or run over the distance or more.

Who the stable is and jockey?

It is very important to know that Jockeys do have a major impact of the performance of a horse when it is racing. The Jockey will know how to ride the horse and get the best from the horse. Simple things like riding the horse in to the areas of the track which best suit the horses form, so getting the horse running in a more firmer part of the track rather than a softer part. Plus he will know when to push the horse so it can kick on to the finish. You will see the top jockeys know there horses and will ride the horse a few times in meetings before the race you are about to bet in. If a top jockey is going to ride a horse and swop from one stable to another that’s a good sign that this horse has a chance to place.

What is the Racing Post rating for the horse?

The Racing Post rating give you an indication of the quality of the horse and who its has run against and beat or placed. Its a good indication of the class of the horse and if its worth a punt in a race or just been entered so it gains a better rating in future races. Don’t be fooled by the Racing Post Rating it can sometimes be blown apart if a good horse is having a bad day and a new up and coming horse is having a good day. So air with caution when picking horses just on the Racing Post Ratings.

Has the horse run on this ground before and placed or won?

The ground does play a big part in a horses performance. Some horses really like soft ground and will run in mud and win. Some like it hard and will bounce off hard ground as if it was like rubber. You should always look if a horse has run and won or placed consistently on its preferred ground. The great horses can run on anything and win but they are very few and far between. You should always be cautious of horses that run on AW and then switch to turf as they are two different types of surface and not many horse cross between both and win or place. Stables will enter there horses in to All Weather races so give them a run out plus to keep them in the ratings. So don’t be put off by bad form if the horse is a Turf runner and has a bad day or night on the All Weather track.

Is the price good for a mega EW accumulator or EW single.

My final and foremost thing I look for is the value for my accumulator. I am looking for over 6/1 as then it will form a very good accumulator across the card. Don’t take SP always take the price and with a bookie that gives you Best Odds Guaranteed.

So here are my horses for the final day at Ascot 2013. I would suggest you pick and choose and make up small £1 EW bets throughout the day or maybe do a placepot or scoop6 on Totesport.

Have fun punting and don’t forget to join our mailing list for great tips on all sports.

Ascot – 2:30

Somewhat – 7/2 Will Hill
Bureau – 20/1 20/1 Will Hill
Freedom Square – 12/1 Ladbrokes
Bunker – 3/1 Coral
Friendship – 9/1 Skybet
Autumn Lily – 8/1 Paddy Power

Ascot – 3:05

Aiken – 10/1 Coral
Noble Mission – 12/1 Coral
Thomas Chippingdale – 11/1 Coral

Ascot – 3:45

Lethal Force – 10/1 Bet365
Maarek – 20/1 Will Hill
Dandy Boy – 12/1 Bet365

Ascot – 4:25

Gabriels Lad – 10/1 Will Hill
Pooles Harbour – 18/1 Ladbrokes
Royal Rock – 20/1 Coral
Nocturn – 11/1 Paddypower
Arnold Lane – 28/1 Coral
Prodigality – 22/1 Coral

Ascot – 5:00

The Tiger – 20/1 Bet365
Carvan Rolls – 7/1 Will Hill
Stencive – 8/1 Skybet
Rye House – 6/1 Coral
Beaumonts Party – 14/1 Skybet
Ustura – 9/1 Ladbrokes
Voddoo Prince – 20/1 Will Hill

Ascot – 5:35

Junior – 12/1 Bet365
Stopped Out – 14/1 Coral

Horse Racing Preview Saturday 8th June

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Haydock has put together a decent card on Saturday with the feature race being the Timeform Jury Stakes, a Group 3 seven-furlong race better known as The John Of Gaunt Stakes. Previous winners include Decorated Hero and Main Aim and it is ideal for those horses that fall between sprinter and miler.

Darryl Holland rode Pastoral Player to victory here 12 months ago and Graham Lee is in the saddle tomorrow as the six-year-old bids to win it for a second time. Hughie Morrison’s gelding looked a shade unlucky when fourth behind Eton Forever here last month and that form has since been boosted by the Diomed Stakes win of Gregorian. He will need to reverse the placings with both the winner and Red Jazz (3rd) but I think the quicker ground will help.

Ambivalent is likely to be sent off favourite for the Pinnacle Stakes after finishing second to the useful Dalkala at York. She ran quite freely there and I’m not entirely convinced that she will be suited by this step up in trip. I’m prepared to take the 9-2 available about Godolphin’s Prussian. Her latest effort when second in Meydan was possibly flattering but a similar display would see her home in this grade.

Hoyam and Hayley Turner will be a popular choice for the Cecil Frail Stakes after just losing out at Nottingham last time. This looks a difficult little race but I’m going for City Girl to provide Ralph Beckett with another decent prize. She was well beaten by Zanetto at Newbury last time but had a smart performer in Ninjago behind in third and she must rate a fair bet at 8-1.

The Listed Sandy Lane Stakes looks like set to go the way of Richard Hannon’s The Professor. He was an easy winner at Ascot and can follow up here at the expense of Irish raider Clancy Avenue.

Over at Newmarket there is a decent sprint with Sir Michael Stoute’s Enrol and Nocturn set to clash over six furlongs. I have backed Nocturn ante-post for the Wokingham but neither horse looks certain to get a run at this stage. I liked his performance at York and am reluctant to pass him over off only a 3lbs higher mark. However, Enrol also impressed me when winning at Doncaster under hands and heels and looks destined for better things. Backing favourites in sprint handicaps may be the quick way to the poor house but I think 11-4 is a decent bet.

Niceofyoutotellme was widely touted ahead of the big Epsom meeting but was withdrawn from his intended engagement. He did produce a good burst of speed to win last time and I would not be surprised to see him sent off favourite but Ehtedaam strikes me as another horse going the right way. His rider did not need to resort to the whip to see off Nabucco last time and I can’t see the result being any different here.

Newmarket
Ehtedaam 3-1 Ladbrokes
Enrol 11-4 William Hill

Haydock
Prussian 9-2 Bet365
Pastoral Player 3-1 Ladbrokes
City Girl 8-1 Bet365
The Professor 6-4 William Hill

Royal Ascot Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It may seem a bit early to be thinking about Royal Ascot but the bookmakers have already started pricing up many of the races. The perils of ante-post betting were illustrated this week when the ground at Haydock was considered too fast for my two leading fancies in the Silver Bowl. From my vantage point in Scotland I must admit that I had never even considered the prospect of firm ground! Hopefully there will be no such concerns for the Royal meeting next month.

My first dabble in the ante-post market is on the Ascot Gold Cup. There does not appear to be an outstanding stayer about at the moment. So far this season we have seen an impressive win for the Queen’s Estimate and a shock winner of the Yorkshire Cup. But the one to catch my eye is Irish raider Simenon.

Last year, Simenon notched two victories at the Royal meeting and is now ready to step up from handicap class to the stayers’ championship. He took his chance under 9st 10lb in the Chester Cup and endured a nightmare run under Johnny Murtagh. Held up towards the rear, he bowled around on the inside but could not get out in time to catch the leaders. He made up plenty of ground in the straight and flew home in fourth. It takes a good horse to lump that sort of weight around in the Chester Cup and, if he arrives at Ascot in the same form as 12 months ago, 16-1 could be good value.

My second selection is Chapter Seven in the Royal Hunt Cup. These mile handicaps can take a lot of sorting out and the draw often comes along to scupper the best laid plans. However, Chapter Seven is available at 20-1 and is worth a punt at those odds. He has caught the eye by staying on at the end of all three starts this season, notably when an unlucky third in the Newbury Spring Cup. He had previously been sixth in the Lincoln and deserves to pick up one of the big prizes.

My third selection is for the Wokingham Handicap. Admittedly a sharp pin on the day of the race is sometimes as good a way as any to solve this particular puzzle but I’m prepared to take a chance with Jeremy Noseda’s Nocturn. He was just denied at York last time out when he was caught by a horse flashing home on his outside. I felt that he was a little unlucky there and could still be improving.

Royal Ascot

Simenon Gold Cup 16-1 Coral
Chapter Seven Hunt Cup 20-1 Totesport
Nocturn Wokingham 25-1 Coral

York Dante Meeting Day 2 Preview

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Nocturn’s narrow defeat on the opening day was a bit of a sickener. Everything went to plan until the last 50 yards when Mass Rally appeared fast and late on the opposite side to foil the gamble. Having worked out that his tendency to hang left would be negated by his low draw I was feeling quite pleased with myself as he looked set to complete his hat-trick. Hopefully there will be other days for this promising sprinter.

I was also left wondering what might have been after the Duke of York Stakes when Hawkeyethenoo was a fast finishing fourth, the fate of all good each-way bets. Jockey Graham Lee has looked a natural since switching to the flat from jumps but this was not one of his better-judged races. He passed up a couple of opportunities to switch his mount into the clear on the outside in favour of taking the more congested inside route. By the time he got a clear run it was too late.

Day two features the Dante Stakes and the latest raid by team O’Brien on the Derby trials. The Chester Vase and Dee Stakes looked particularly weak affairs whilst the Lingfield Derby trial was reduced to a virtual walkover for Nevis following the defection of Greatwood. O’Brien saddles Indian Chief here, an easy winner of his maiden last time out and currently available at 20-1 for Epsom. The stable also has Mars and Battle Of Marengo to consider. The Derby is in danger of becoming a straight fight between Dawn Approach and Team O’Brien unless the Dante can throw up a rival contender.

Sir Michael Stoute withdrew Telescope from the race with a minor infection and it now seems that the colt will have to go straight to Epsom. He runs in the same colours of Greatwood who could prove an able deputy on Thursday after a highly promising run at Newmarket. He was finishing best of all behind Windhoek that day and shaped as though a mile and a half would suit him even better. Soft ground was put forward as the reason for his absence at Lingfield but I am slightly concerned that he may already find this mile and a quarter a little sharp. Luca Cumani knows how to train a Derby winner and I think this likeable colt could enter the picture tomorrow. William Hill offer 5-1 for the Dante and 25-1 for the Derby so I shall take a little of both and hope that he puts in a bold showing.

The Hambleton Handicap has always been one of the best mile handicaps of the season, often providing clues to races such as the Hunt Cup and Goodwood’s Golden Mile. Tomorrow’s race does not appear to have quite the same quality about it but I am intrigued by David O’Meara’s two runners. Two For Two and Anderiego finished third and second respectively in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, both coming from way off the pace. Two For Two was knocked sideways by St Moritz early on and it is not surprising to see him chalked up favourite. It would be tempting fate not to have a saver on Anderiego and both should run well.

In the stayers race I am siding with Hidden Justice who has been transformed by a spell over hurdles. He won easily at Pontefract on his return to the flat and could be up to defying a 10lb rise in the weights tomorrow.

Greatwood 5-1 Dante William Hill, 25-1 (each-way) Derby William Hill
Two For Two 9-2 William Hill
Anderiego 9-1 (each-way) William Hill
Hidden Justice 5-1 Ladbrokes

York Dante Meeting Day 1 Preview May 15th

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York’s Dante meeting provides the last real chance for anything to emerge to challenge Dawn Approach in the ante-post market for the Epsom Derby. Aidan O’Brien has been busily mopping up the Derby trials over the past couple of weeks and currently has six possible runners headed by Battle Of Marengo. He saddles Indian Chief for the Dante on Wednesday where he is set to clash with Greatwood and Windhoek.

Sir Michael Stoute’s intended Dante runner Telescope has been forced to miss the race due to a minor infection and connections hope that he will still make it to Epsom. Bookmakers are offering him at 6-1 with a run. The Oaks chances of Telescope’s stable companion Liber Nauticus are put to the test on the opening day of the meeting when she lines up for the Musidora Stakes. The Azamour filly didn’t really know what it was all about on her only run as a two-year-old but responded well to pressure to win her maiden at Goodwood.

Her inexperience would usually be a cause for concern in stepping up to this grade but this does not look the strongest renewal. In fact, her main market rival also has only one race under her belt, a win on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. Woodland Aria quickened up well that day but is freely available at 25-1 for the Oaks, suggesting that the stable are not expecting great things from her.

I was most impressed with Secret Gesture at Lingfield on Saturday. Ladbrokes went 6-1 after the race but that quickly disappeared and the best price now is 4-1 with Sporting Bet. I would be very surprised if anything puts in a better display than that before Epsom and believe that she would be 7-4 if she was trained at one of the bigger yards. It could be argued that the opposition did not amount to much but she could have won by 20 lengths if she had been asked to do so and I think there is still some value left at 4’s.

Tuesday’s other feature race is the Duke of York Stakes with top sprinters Mince and Tickled Pink expected to fight out the finish over six furlongs. They have plenty of opposition, most notably from Society Rock and Hawkeyethenoo. I thought that the latter shaped very encouragingly first time out and will improve on that effort and could be worth each-way support at 16-1.

The meeting opens with a tricky looking handicap but I’m interested in Prompter who switches back to the flat after competing in hurdle races for Jonjo O’Neill. He won at Bangor-on-Dee with his head in his chest before being beaten at odds-on at Worcester recently. He was useful on the flat for Michael Bell and ran a good race here when close up behind Crackentorp. Ryan Moore has been booked and that could be significant. The 12-1 on offer with William Hill looks worth taking.

In the 2.15 Nocturn goes for a quick hat-trick after two victories at Windsor. He hung badly left-handed last time under Graham Lee but a good draw in three should enable him to grab the far rail. If he settles well he could be up to defying a 6lb penalty and it is worth taking the risk at odds of around 7-1.

Secret Gesture 4-1 Oaks Sportingbet
Prompter 12-1 (each-way) William Hill
Nocturn 7-1 Ladbrokes
Hawkeyethenoo 16-1 (each-way) Ladbrokes