Tag: NRL

NRL Grand Final Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Forty-three years of heartache has been replaced by an epic hangover for Michael MacGuire’s Rabbitohs team after they demolished (on the scoreboard at least, the actual game was slightly closer) the Bulldogs in Sunday’s NRL Grand Final.

The win reduced Greg Inglis to tears and Sam Burgess’ face to smithereens, but crucially it ends a dramatic drought in South Sydney silverware. The game itself always felt like it was going in South Sydney’s favour. They dominated possession; completed their sets well; looked more dangerous with ball in hand (in particular centres Walker and Auva’a). They even crossed for a disallowed try before finally getting on the score sheet through punters favourite Alex Johnston.

Despite dominating, Souths did not take all of their chances. Things were actually quite tight and still 6-6 after 55 minutes until George Burgess scored. For what it is worth, I actually thought George Burgess was better than Clive Churchill Medal brother Sam in this game. George too suffered the indignity of a head injury yet still managed a huge workload in just over 60 minutes.

George Burgess – 18 Hit Ups for 200m. 3 Tackle Busts. 1 Try. 21 Tackles

Sam Burgess – 22 Hit Ups for 207m. 31 Tackles.

Other than some Tony Williams busts the Bulldogs showed little penetration in attack. Trent Hodkinson went missing, and Josh Reynolds confused the times to run / kick. The weight of pressure eventually told on the Blue and White’s; as a result they fell away significantly in the final quarter. Souths were able to expose some big holes in the middle of the Bulldog’s defence, past a tiring James Graham and co who were struggling without the fortification provided by Mick Ennis.

The Rabbits win is a fair reflection on a great season; a deserved NRL Grand Final win. The turnaround from the 2006 wooden spoon season is nothing short of miraculous. Granted, Russell Crowe has thrown a load of money at the club (and its rumoured James Packer will too if he buys a stake), but take nothing away form a clearly dedicated team who appear to like each other and get on well. The post game emotion outlines a deep respect for the club members, and is in stark contrast to the dressing room scenes described by Kevin Pietersen in the England cricket team, proving camaraderie can heighten performance.

The bookies won’t be at all surprised by the result of the NRL Grand Final. They would have expected to pay out on the Rabbitohs, and on Sam Burgess taking home the Clive Churchill medal. Of my predictions last week none of them were useful; George Burgess scored the second try (not the first I had him for) meaning some sites may have offered money back; Adam Reynolds let us down, and the Bulldogs couldn’t muster first half points.

Souths’ victory brings an NRL season to an end, however the Four Nations tournament begins October 25.  I’ll report back in closer to the time with some tips for the tournament featuring Australia, NZ, England and Samoa.

NRL Grand Final Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It has arrived. The conclusion to a competition that is consistently viewed as one of the most even in the World. The end of the constant headlines that the players attract for off field antics (think Mitchell Pearce, The ASADA Sharks, Todd Carney). And sans State of Origin, the pièce de résistance, of the Rugby League calendar.

The Grand Final.

South Sydney and Canterbury are both worthy finalists. They have been the epitome of finals footy. Calm, professional, dedicated and passionate. Despite paving a very different path to the finals; the Rabbitohs qualified third and even earned themselves a week off in the finals; the Bulldogs however stumbled into the playoffs when results went their way, but have fought back strongly to beat the Melbourne, Manly and Penrith; both teams are in with a chance of taking home the Provan-Summons Trophy.

Injury and suspension have added to the drama, and possibly gone some way as to even the scale. Isaac Luke who in my view is one of the most underrated rugby league players on the planet is suspended. Mick Ennis it seems has broken every bone in his foot. The manner in which the teams respond to the loss of their hooker’s may have a massive bearing on this game.

The talking points:

Rabbitohs: The Rabbitohs haven’t won an NRL Grand Final since 1971. Despite assembling an impressive squad over the past few seasons they are yet to put it together and deliver the silverware their members demand. 2014 might be one of their best opportunities if losing Ben Te’o is any indicator. The mix of seasoned professionals (Greg Inglis, Lote Tuqiri, Sam Burgess) and young guns (Luke Keary, Dylan Walker, Alex Johnston) has allowed the Rabbitohs to play an exciting brand of football, one that should be able to run over the Bulldogs in the second half. The only question marks I can see are over their ability to control the ruck without Isaac Luke, and the lack of big game experience (just Inglis and Tuqiri have played in grand finals).

Bulldogs: Des Hasler may end being the best NRL coach of all time. His ability to get the best out of ball playing forwards has been the basis of strong finals runs for both his former Manly side and current Bulldogs crop. James Graham and Josh Jackson are prime examples of the types of players that work well in Dessies setup. But they’ll need a fast start to conquer the strong second half abilities of the Rabbitohs. That task gets though only gets harder without Ennis’ tackling and leadership. Carrying the weight will inevitably fall on the halves pairing of Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson. Their battle with Adam Reynolds will also have a big influence on the result.

Where’s The Money? The money is on the Rabbits. Punters have put down double the amount on the Rabbits ($1.42) than the Bulldogs ($3) to win the NRL Grand Final. This is pretty surprising given the teams shared one win each during the regular season match-ups and both were settled by less than 8 points. Lots of money being placed on the Clive Churchill medal winner too. Sam Burgess is the joint-favourite at $4, but Greg Inglis has received plenty of attention at $4 too.

Our Pick: I really want there to be a reason to pick the Bulldogs. I like the odds. I like the way their forwards play. However, I also know that grand finals are often won by moments of brilliance (Benji Marhsall, Keiran Foran) and not pure grit. South Sydney have the x-factor; the players capable of blowing a game open. They’ve also been hugely impressive in the last few weeks. Although I think the Bulldogs is worth a punt if you have a spare tenner, save the big money for the Rabbitohs. By 12.

Cheeky: Adam Reynolds for Clive Churchill at $9. George Burgess for first try at $21. Bulldogs at half time, Rabbitohs at full time $6.50.

*Odds courtesy of TAB.

NRL Week Three Finals Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Preliminary finals time in the NRL means another exciting week of NRL and another week of potential bookmaker payouts.

The final four almost mirrors the table at the conclusion of the regular season with the only exception the Bulldogs making it through from 7th place at the expense of the Manly Sea Eagles.

After last week’s thrillers it is very difficult to separate the four remaining teams. Picking a winner this week could be tougher than dinner with the in-laws, and just imagine how tricky next week’s grand final will be too.

Let’s look at the games individually.

Roosters v Rabbitohs

The Rabbitohs will lazily head to ANZ stadium as the favourites in my view. I say lazily as the week off would have given them an opportunity to put their feat up and watch last week’s nail biting from a distance. Although the teams have already met twice this year and shared the spoils the Rabbitohs have appeared more composed in their finals performances thus far. They closed out Manly expertly, whereas the Roosters have struggled with leads in bug games. Having said that the last time these sides met the Roosters targeted the Rabbitohs up front, in particular Sam Burgess. While some of their tactics were questionable (Dylan Napa was shoulder charging everything in sight) it did upset the Rabbitohs powerful forward pack.

There remain some question marks over Adam Reynolds’ finals caliber – Can he lead his team around the park as well as he did against Manly? Equally though Anthony Minichiello has mistakes in him, and Sonny Bill Williams has been either rocks or diamonds every time he’s carried the ball in this finals series.

Odds courtesy of Tom Waterhouse:

South Sydney Rabbitohs $1.76

Sydney Roosters $2.10

Rabbitohs by 7.

 

Panthers v Bulldogs

Some would argue that the Panthers got in the way of what could have been the greatest Grand Final the sport has ever seen when they knocked over the Roosters in week one of the finals. The truth is they deserve their spot in the last four. They play with passion and dedication. Ivan Clearly and Phil Gould have galvanized this club to the point where they are very much in contention.   In Matt Moylan, Jamal Idris and Josh Mansour they have three game changing backs who could run rings around the Bulldogs relatively inexperienced backline.

The Bulldogs on the other hand run most of their set plays through big Englishman James Graham. With his ability to mix brutality with deft distribution he can set the likes of Tony Williams and Josh Jackson on to the so-called defensive frailties of Jamie Soward.

Penrith Panthers $2.15

Bulldogs $1.73

Bulldogs by 10.

 

Random Tip – A multi on draws at half time in both games ($11 and $23 respectively).

 

NRL Week Two Finals Review 2014

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

As sports seasons draw to a close writers have usually exhausted most of their superlatives, commentators have generally already proclaimed events to be the ‘best ever’, and newspapers have previously run their best headlines.

But then Friday night’s game comes along.

Reigning premiers meet perennial underdogs.   World’s best Rugby League player (RLPA Players’ Award) meets (arguably) World’s best crossover rugby player. 30-Nil after thirty minutes. 30 all after 57 minutes. 31-30 full time after a winning try in the final minutes is ruled out.

Therein lies the hallmarks of an absolute classic. A game that deserves the superlatives, the headlines and the title of best ever. This was an absolute classic and the more I watch this seasons NRL the more I feel each and every single game from here on in is going to go the same way.

Saturday’s game was exactly the same. Who would have predicted both semi finals being settled by a solitary point?

Here’s a review of the action from Week Two of the NRL Finals 2014:

Roosters v Cowboys

The unlucky Cowboys may rue the performance of Gavin Badger and the video ref in denying what would have been a game-winning try, but the truth is there were a number of moments that cost them this one. A horror start had the cowboys down by thirty after a flat start and a number of Michael Morgan mistakes. Much like the Cowboys did to the Broncos the weak before, the Roosters were dominant with James Maloney scoring one and having a hand in three others.

Enter Johnathan Thurston (Matt Scott wasn’t bad either).   Thurston got the Cowboys back into the contest with a spirited display of leadership, but in his own view contributed a couple of mistakes that may have influenced the game. He had the option of two points just before half time that in the end proved crucial, and he failed to see Morgan on his inside when he made a break in the second half which would have led to an inevitable 6 points. To marginalise Thurston though is unfair. Games of this ilk do not need villains, they simply need appreciation and no doubt this game had that by the bucket load.

Manly v Bulldogs 

This season the Bulldogs have been the masters of the one point victory. On three occasions, in fact on three consecutive occasions, the Bulldogs have escaped thanks to the boot of Trent Hodkinson or Josh Reynolds and Saturday night was no different. Trent Hodkinson kicked a golden point field goal (his second of the night) to separate his team from the Manly Sea Eagles in another pulsating encounter.

Mirroring the earlier game, the Bulldogs made a fast start but as the Sea Eagles came back strongly, a Mick Ennis brain snap almost had the Brookvale outfit entering yet another finals series. Englishman James Graham enjoyed another silky skilled outing, as did the back three for the Bulldogs who all got their name on the scoresheet. Sam Perrett’s unlikely heroism (he also set up a try for Corey Thompson) means he’ll get another week on centre stage at the expense of Manly’s Brett Stewart who also scored in his 200th NRL match. Although Sam Perrett’s singing voice (YouTube it if you don’t believe me) is worth centre stage by itself.

In the end, Manly simply missed both Watmough and a quality hooker to help control the ruck. Their battling spirit kept them alive but not so far as to meet Penrith next week.

Check back in next week to see the odds on two more one-point results.

NRL Week One Finals Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

I must admit. I didn’t give Penrith much of chance against the Roosters.  I was of the belief that the Roosters would be too strong for their relative unknown pack given their dismantling of Sam Burgess’ Rabbitohs the week prior.

But that’s the beauty of the NRL year after year. Upsets occur as regularly as Taylor Swift breakups. The Bulldogs too surprised the perennial champions Melbourne at AAMI Park.

Here’s our take on week one of the finals.

Rabbitohs v Manly

Riding the pocket of a dominant forward performance Adam Reynolds dazzled in scoring 20 of Souths’ 40 points. Centres Dylan Walker and Kirisome Auva’a wrecked havoc on the edge and Greg Inglis enjoyed space in freedom in an impressive running display.

For Manly it appears the in-house fighting that has been widely reported involving Watmough, Cherry-Evans, Matai and Glenn Stewart has started to affect their footy. Cherry-Evans and Jamie Lyon had their worst games for some time and they’ll need to find a quick fix if their to have any chance against the Bulldogs in week 2.

Penrith v Roosters

In what can only be described as a freakish last minute play Dallin Watene-Zelezniak tiptoed the touchline to provide an assist for Dean Whare to tie the scores and lay the platform for some Jamie Soward field goal heroics. The heavily religious Watene-Zelezniak who is considering an NRL hiatus to head out on a Mormon mission, epitomized the Panthers new found dedication under Ivan Cleary. The unheralded Panthers could match their 2003 efforts and go all the way.

Cowboys v Broncos

The Broncos have always been my favourite Fantasy NRL team. Their forward pack is made up almost entirely of Fantasy keepers. Parker, McCullough, McGuire, Gillett are all heavy scorers, but it counted for nothing in Townsville on Saturday. The Cowboys started quickly and could not be caught. Thurston paved the way and expertly guided big forwards Jason Taumalolo and Gavin Cooper through a weak Broncos right side. The 18-0 lead after just 18 minutes was a bridge too far the Broncos who will turn their attention to the return of Wayne Benefit (and probably Darius Boyd too who is never far from his Skeletor lookalike father figure). The Cowboys on the other hand are one step closer to giving future immortal Thurston a deserved Championship ring.

Storm v Bulldogs

All the talk before the game was whether Cameron Smith would front for the Storm. He did but he couldn’t prevent a dominant Bulldogs side from piling on 24 unanswered points before the Storm finally crossed some 50 minutes in. They crossed shortly after in one of the all time great tries only for it to be ruled out in contentious fashion. It’s a shame the video ref took the wind out of their sails just as the Storm were starting to wrestle back some momentum.

The rest is Tim Lafai (hat-trick).

 

Next Week sees the Roosters v Cowboys in one Semi-Final and the Sea Eagles v Bulldogs in the other.   Check back in at the end of the week to see a detailed preview of the matchups, and some useful predictions.