Tag: Oaks

Epsom Friday Preview

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It is Oaks day on Friday at Epsom and the supporting card provides plenty of additional interest. Ihtimal carries our hopes in the classic with our 20-1 ante-post selection down to less than half of those odds. I still believe she is excellent each-way value at around 10-1 and expect to see her price shorten before the off.

The support for Marvellous has meant that Taghrooda has eased out to 4-1 and she is my idea of the biggest threat to the Godolphin filly. John Gosden suffered a near-miss with Kingman in the 2000 Guineas before gaining compensation in Ireland and he has another live classic contender here. She may ease out towards 5-1 and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t make the frame.

Thistle Bird is a great favourite of the Roger Charlton stable and she can bounce back to form in the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes. She won this prize 12 months ago and looked as though she needed the outing when only sixth at York last time. Frankie Dettori was not hard on her once her chance had gone and I expect the mare to gain revenge on Odeliz and Mango Diva who both finished ahead of her that day.

Tres Coronas did us a favour when winning at Chester last month and again ran well behind Clever Cookie at York. His handicap mark has risen as a result and I just prefer the bottom weight Air Pilot in the second race at 2.10. Ralph Beckett’s horse has had only three starts but looked value for more last time when he hit the front too soon.

Gregorian is the best on form in the Diomed Stakes but I am just put off by his lack of a recent outing. He usually goes well fresh but French Navy and Windhoek may have a fitness advantage in a tricky little contest. I just feel that French Navy offers better value at 9-2 than Gregorian at 5-2.

Abseil was beaten by the draw at Chester last time when his fate was sealed by missing the break. He did well to get to within give lengths of the heavily backed Here Comes When and should enjoy the step up to a mile in the 3.20. He has been backed ante-post for the Royal Hunt Cup so ought to win this if he is to justify that support.

Thistle Bird 1.35 Epsom at 3-1 Ladbrokes

Air Pilot 2.10 Epsom at 8-1 William Hill

French Navy 2.45 Epsom at 9-2 Bet365

Abseil 3.20 Epsom at 9-4 Coral, Totesport

Ihtimal 4.00 Epsom at 9-1 William Hill

Taghrooda 4.00 Epsom at 4-1 William Hill

 

Epsom Oaks 2014 Preview

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Regular readers of this column will know that I have pinned my colours firmly to Ihtimal for the Epsom Oaks some time ago. I followed the filly as a two-year-old and was convinced that she was given an ill-judged ride when third on her final start.

She came out in Dubai and blitzed her rivals in the UAE Guineas and Oaks but still failed to capture the imagination of British punters and was available at double figure prices in the build-up to Newmarket. She ran a cracking race on the day but could not quite get to the front two. She more than covered our ante-post advice at 16-1 for the Guineas and we are clutching our 20-1 Oaks vouchers in anticipation of another big run on Friday.

Her pedigree, running style and dosage index all suggest that she will get the mile and a half. Silvestre De Sousa must be wondering exactly what he did to deserve being dropped for the classic in favour of Kieren Fallon but strange things are happening with Godolphin these days. Ihtimal has always struck me as an easy-moving filly that will handle Epsom and I wouldn’t put anyone off having another go at around 10-1 each-way.

Taghrooda is the only other filly that I would have entertained for this race but I missed the value with her. I wrote a lengthy article about the maiden race she won last autumn from which six or seven horses can out and won next time. By the time she reappeared at Newmarket for the Pretty Polly she was already down to around 6-1 and those odds were promptly halved after her easy success.

I believe that she has eased simply because the odds were a little cramped and she is my biggest concern. I’m always wary of Irish classic winners running in the Oaks or Derby. It always feels like an after-thought to me and I also felt that Marvellous was being scrubbed along far too early at the Curragh to be comfortable on the Epsom Downs. Tarfasha is still not a certain runner while connections ponder the conditions and none of the others have done anything to suggest that they can win a classic.

Amazing Maria has not raced this season but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see her run into a place.

Ihtimal (Epsom Oaks) at 9-1 William Hill

Goodwood Thursday Preview

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The Oaks form of Taghrooda comes under the microscope at Goodwood tomorrow in the Height Of Fashion Stakes.

John Gosden’s filly romped to a six-length victory in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket and has been favourite for the Epsom Oaks ever since. The trainer suffered frustration in the 2000 Guineas with Kingman being beaten narrowly and will be hoping to have better luck on Oaks day.

His nearest pursuer was Luca Cumani’s Jordan Princess but at a respectful distance with Uchenna further back in fourth. It will be fascinating to see how they perform in a race that also tests the value of the Cheshire Oaks form.

Feedyah is another interesting runner having been thrashed twice by Ihtimal in Dubai. That filly is my ante-post wager for the classic and I notice that Kieren Fallon has taken over from De Sousa. There are some strange goings on with Godolphin and their jockey plans at the moment.

I watched the performance of Psychometry that day with interest and she shaped well enough. As with most of Sir Michael Stoute’s horses, she needed the run to put her straight and I will side with her to improve enough to take this. Strictly on the book, she should not beat Secret Pursuit but that filly will be having her fifth start of the season tomorrow.

There are plenty of betting opportunities on a good card and I like the chances of Emef Diamond in the 2.40. Mick Channon’s horse ran well enough at Nottingham to suggest he can feature here. There are several dark horses to worry about including Fast Delivery who won easily on the all-weather but Emef Diamond is attractively priced.

Presto Volante can land the stayers handicap for Amanda Perrett despite the money being for stable companion Lion Beacon. You have to think that Ryan Moore’s booking is significant on the latter but Presto Volante could be picked out travelling best a long way from home at Kempton and he is only up 6lbs.

The Stoute bandwagon can roll on in the 3.50 with Russian Realm, a colt out of classic winner Russian Rhythm. He may not have her class but he ought to be up to taking this. The Rectifier may be a threat after a fine run at Haydock along with Roger Charlton’s So Beloved.

Emef Diamond 2.40 Goodwood at 14-1 BetVictor

Presto Volante 3.15 Goodwood at 15-2 BetVictor

Russian Realm 3.50 Goodwood at 9-4 William Hill

Psychometry 4.25 Goodwood at 5-1 Paddy Power

Epsom Preview Friday 31st May

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The Oaks is the feature race of Epsom’s opening day with Secret Gesture set to go off favourite. Ralph Beckett’s filly has replaced Moth at the head of the market and the midweek rain can only have improved her chances. The rain could also help my each-way selection The Lark so I’m looking forward to the race with optimism.

The meeting opens with a tricky looking contest for the Princess Elizabeth Stakes. I’ve been following Sentaril throughout her career and she started her campaign with a promising run at Goodwood. She was held up by Graham Lee but he found himself trapped on the rails when the pace quickened and he had to wait to deliver his challenge. Sentaril ran on well enough but the winner had first run and held off her late challenge. You can make a case for most of the runners here but I’ll keep faith with Sentaril at 6-1.

I picked out Niceofyoutotellme when the 2.10 was priced up earlier in the week but he is now a non-runner. The money during the week seems to have been for Blue Surf, trained by Amanda Perrett. The four-year-old has not been seen since disappointing in the November Handicap so I can only guess that they have him ready first time out.

The Diomed Stakes is another trappy little race where it is difficult to be too confident. I’m going to side with Gregorian who produced some top class form last season and looked as they he would be sharpened up by his outing at Haydock recently. I respect the claims of Producer who has won all four previous starts at Epsom and that’s a stat that it is difficult to ignore.

I will probably regret overlooking Gabrial. He did this column a good turn when winning the Doncaster Mile but then failed to go through with his effort at Chester. He looked a difficult ride that day and ran like a sidewinder up the straight. If Spencer can preserve his finishing kick he could probably run diagonally across the course and still win but I’m not prepared to take the chance.

Andrew Balding withdrew Here Comes When from the Silver Bowl on account of the firm ground and he has been re-routed to the Listed race at 4.45. His main rival looks to be Hasopop who was behind him at Newbury earlier in the season. He has since won a decent six furlong handicap at Newmarket and is the best part of a stone better off than at Newbury for two lengths.

Strictly speaking, Hasopop should be the selection but Here Comes When won at Chester with a bit in hand. The bookmakers have priced them up at 9-4 and 7-2 and I’m very confident that the race concerns these two. Earlier this week I fancied Heeraat at Beverley and rated Hamza the only danger. I don’t want to make the same mistake again here so I recommend splitting stakes on the pair.

Ante-Post Oaks
Secret Gesture 4-1
The Lark (each-way) 33-1

1.35 Sentaril 6-1 William Hill
2.45 Gregorian 7-2 Paddy Power, Producer 4-1 William Hill
4.45 Hasopop 9-4 William Hill, Here Comes When 7-2 Bet Victor

Epsom Ante-Post Update

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The latest news on the Derby is that Magician is thought to be unlikely to take part in Saturday’s classic. If this is confirmed on Friday, it is unlikely to have too much of an impact on the market with bookmakers having been offering NR/No Bet this week.

The attention of the media seems to have been side-tracked by the saga of whether or not Frankie Dettori will be allowed to ride in the race following his drugs ban. Personally I would much rather concentrate on the horses. I have advised interest in the French and German raiders, Ocovango and Chopin at 9-1 and 12-1 respectively. I don’t see any value in backing the favourite at around even money given his stamina concerns and none of the other runners have really impressed me. However, both horses would appreciate a little bit of cut so I may be forced to do a rain dance later in the week!

The market for the Oaks is also unchanged after eleven horses were declared for Friday’s race. Secret Gesture (4-1) has been my selection here since she bolted up in the Lingfield Oaks trial. Moth and Liber Nauticus are challenging her in the betting but I just think she will have more gears than they do. I’ve also taken an each-way interest in The Lark (33-1), a half-sister to 2009 Oaks winner Sariska and open to plenty of improvement.

The bookmakers have now started pricing up the other races at the meeting and there are a couple in the handicaps that could be worth supporting. The first is Ralph Beckett’s progressive handicapper Niceofyoutotellme. I am not usually a fan of form from the polytrack but the style of his victory at Kempton suggests that there is a lot more to come from this son of Hernando. He was always travelling easily and picked up very well to cut down the field and win by a head. He is racing off only a 5lb higher mark on Friday and stands out in an otherwise moderate field.

My second selection is more speculative but has some sound reasoning behind it. You could hardly have a more difficult race to unravel than the Epsom Dash on Saturday but I think La Fortunata is overpriced at 20-1. The mare looked certain to win over course and distance last month only to be caught in the very last stride by Ajjaadd. Early speed is essential in this race above all others and she loves to bowl along in front. Her Epsom form reads 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 2nd. By my reckoning that makes her a fair each-way bet at 20-1.

Friday – Niceofyoutotellme 11-2 Paddy Power
Saturday – La Fortunata 20-1 Bet365

Horse Racing Preview 29th May

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The midweek racing is not the greatest, as you would expect with the Epsom Derby meeting coming up on Friday. Wednesday’s evening meeting at Beverley offers the best quality of the day with some speedy two-year-olds set to clash in the Hilary Needler Trophy.

With so many meetings these days I must admit that I don’t follow the two-year-old form until after Royal Ascot. York winner Beldale Memory is the only youngster to have impressed me so far so I will be giving the Beverley race a miss. My nap of the day is in the following event; a Conditions race over five furlongs. The one that I want to be on is Heeraat who finished fourth in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket last time.

The form of that race received a boost when runner-up Kingsgate Native won the Temple Stakes at Haydock. Heeraat was bang there with a chance a furlong out and this drop back to five furlongs should prove ideal. Hamza looks the one to give the favourite most to do but 7-4 with William Hill is worth taking.

The weather has taken a downturn after the weekend heatwave and rain has reached the Epsom area today and the going is now good, good to soft in places. There is plenty of time for the weather to go either way but I’ll be happy with anything other than firm ground for my ante-post selections Secret Gesture (4-1 Oaks) and Ocovango (9-1 Derby). With most bookmakers now offering NR/No bet on both races, now is a good time to pick off the last of the each-way value.

There has been a lot written about the stamina doubts of Dawn Approach and we will have to wait until much later in the week before we know whether Magician will take part. One horse that will definitely line up is the German raider Chopin, supplemented for £75,000 by his wealthy owners this week. I’ve studied his races and there is no doubting that he is a smart colt. His pedigree suggests that he will stay the trip and the rain will be good news for his supporters. I think that 12-1 represents a decent price against rivals that have plenty of questions to answer.

Chopin has been bought by Qatar Racing and they have given themselves a decent shout at the Oaks/Derby double by buying a 50% share in Secret Gesture. Trainer Ralph Beckett reports her to be in great nick going into the race and I’m optimistic. One filly that could still offer a little each-way value is The Lark. She was not at all suited by a slow pace at Newbury first time out and stayed on into third after being outpaced. Michael Bell expects her to improve a lot for that and I could see her running into a place.

Heeraat 7-4 William Hill
Chopin 12-1 Stan James
The Lark 33-1 Coral