The Chappell-Hadlee series is already a lost cause for the Black Caps. Heavy losses in games one and two mean the men in black are left playing for pride in the final game of the series in Melbourne tomorrow.
Pride is important though given the magnitude of the losses so far. Especially when you consider the lack of enthusiasm the Black Caps have played with, the uncharacteristic mistakes they’ve made in the field and the strange decision they made behind closed doors (toss decisions and batting order).
We expect the Black Caps to be more competitive in game three, but can they overcome the gulf in class between them and the in-form Australians.
The Series So Far
Australia has already sealed the Chappell-Hadlee series thanks to dominant wins in the opening two games. In both matches, the hosts have scored over 300 runs in impressive batting displays, and in both matches, the Black Caps haven’t got close to getting near their chasing targets.
In Sydney, Australia was led by a huge Steve Smith century. The captain survived a close LBW shout and a difficult dropped catch to bring up ODI century number 7. In reply, only four New Zealanders got themselves to double figures (albeit one of them was the ultra impressive Martin Guptill who scored 114) and the final margin was 68 runs.
In Canberra, it was David Warner’s turn to bring up a personal milestone and provide the backbone of the Australian effort. The nuggety opener scored 119 and was ably supported by Smith, Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh. New Zealand was ragged with ball in hand, sloppy in the field, and ultimately left to rue their decision to bowl first. Despite runs from Guptill, James Neesham and Kane Williamson, the Black Caps lost by 116 runs.
The Teams
Australia (from):
David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steven Smith (capt), George Bailey, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Matthew Wade (wk), James Faulkner, Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood.
Maxwell is likely to miss out again. But Adam Zampa could return on the ground he plays his Big Bash cricket on.
Aaron Finch and George Bailey are the batsmen with the most to prove after missing out in the series so far.
New Zealand (likely):
Kane Williamson (capt), Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson, Martin Guptill, Colin de Grandhomme, Tom Latham, Colin Munro, Henry Nicholls, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, BJ Watling (wk).
Jimmy Neesham might miss out after taking a blow to his arm from Mitchell Starc. Lockie Ferguson could also get another opportunity at the expensive of the disappointing Matt Henry.
The Key Players
Australia
David Warner and Steve Smith- If the Black Caps can get Warner and Smith cheaply they’ll win the game. Okay, it’s not that simple, but these two have scored a combined total of 2386 runs this year – Warner with 1232 and Smith with 1154. Their importance to an Australia win is immense. For Smith, Australia lost nine of those 11 matches when he scored 30 runs or less. For Warner, Australia lost five of those 11 when he scored less than 25. The Black Caps must find a way to stop them if they’re to have any chance in Melbourne.
New Zealand
Martin Guptill – The middle of Martin Guptill’s bat must have taken a battering in the two matches thus far. The Kiwi opener has middled everything and looked the best player in black by the size of some of his sixes. Take the white clothing off him and he’s a freakishly good player. Expect more of the same from him in game three. If he can turn in a Steve Smith type performance – a really big hundred – New Zealand could get the 350+ total they’ll need to avoid a series whitewash.
The Match Odds
Australia – $1.29 at Betstar.
New Zealand – $3.75 at Bookmaker.
The Prediction
It’s not just the first two games in the series that Australia has dominated. They’ve dominated everyone who has travelled to Australia for ODI games over the last two years. Extending the winning run to 17 of the last 18 games at home, Australia has forged a formidable home ground advantage. Expect that to continue in the final match of the series.
The Best Bets
Not much money on Smith, Warner or Guptill to top score here, so you might have to think outside the box to get a decent win banked. Consider Pat Cummins to be in the wickets again, he’s paying $5 to be Australia’s leading wicket taker.
On the New Zealand side, Tim Southee at $4 looks decent odds given he’s the most experienced New Zealand death bowler and could get some cheapie in the slog overs.
