Tag: Opinion

York Ebor Meeting Day 4 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The 40-1 shock win of Jwala in the Nunthorpe just about sums up the week so far on the Knavesmire! Moviesta had won the King George at Goodwood with Jwala finishing last but this time it was the other way around. Apparently Jwala had banged her head leaving the stalls last time and was probably suffering from concussion. After three days of York, I know the feeling!

I thought at least Simenon would get a few pounds back in the Lonsdale but I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw him take up the running under Murtagh. I’d put the Irishman in the top half dozen riders at present but it hadn’t occurred to me that he’d be doing anything other than holding Simenon up for a late run against a fairly one-paced bunch. Not surprisingly, he found one staying on well enough to struggle past him in the long home straight.

Saturday’s card doesn’t exactly look like an easy way to get back on level terms with the Ebor backed up by an equally open looking Melrose Handicap. Havana Cooler looked like damned hard work at Goodwood when staying on to be third and I wouldn’t even be sure of him confirming the form with Van Percy and Elidor (fourth and fifth).

I think the bit of give in the ground may suit Van Percy more than some of these and the 7lb claimer puts him in on a good weight. He has also got a decent draw whereas a lot of the fancied runners are out wide so 14-1 with Stan James looks a fair each-way bet.

A couple of weeks ago I tipped Sun Central for the Ebor but the change of going and being lumbered with top weight don’t bode well for his chances. A number of leading contenders are absent and Opinion now has an obvious chance under Ryan Moore. He never saw daylight in the slowly run Old Newton Cup and did well to finish as close as he did in fifth.

I may have been tempted to back Genzy who looked desperately unlucky not to catch Bishop Roko on his penultimate start. He was mixing it with some decent stayers at Newbury in the Geoffrey Freer and did well to finish fourth but he is drawn in the car park in stall 22. One who could run well at a huge price is Amanda Perrett’s Blue Surf. He has been fancied a couple of times this season but failed to land a blow and the ease in the ground may see some improvement.

He was actually joint-favourite for a competitive race at Goodwood last time but found himself trapped on the inside when the pace quickened and could only plod on at the one pace. He’s got a bit further to travel here but should be able to lie handy from stall 10 and rates a decent each-way alternative to the favourite.

Van Percy 14-1 Stan James

Opinion 6-1 Paddy Power

Blue Surf 33-1 Ladbrokes

Haydock Old Newton Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The good news is that our ante-post bets for the weekend all still stand after the 48 hour declarations. That includes 20-1 about Mars in the Eclipse who will be partnered by Ryan Moore. I think I probably deserve a free bet for managing to correctly guess which race Aidan O’Brien would run him in!

The Ballydoyle maestro pulled another rabbit out of the that this week by announcing that Declaration of War would join Mars in the race. In his defence, the horse has winning form over a mile and a quarter so it is not like he is running a sprinter. Wouldn’t it be typical if he turns out to be the one to beat Mars!

Anyway, moving over to Haydock and the Old Newton Cup. I tried to fathom this one out earlier in the week but decided to put it in the “too difficult” tray until the running plans are known. The Highclere team has decided to let Opinion take his chance under top weight but I remain sceptical about the form of the Ascot race.

Ustura certainly did nothing for the form this week and it is going to take a mighty effort under 9st 10lb. I am convinced that Mark Johnston’s horses are coming into peak form ahead of the Newmarket July meeting and Glorious Goodwood. Nothing unusual about that of course but I was hoping he would help me out by reducing his entries for this race.

No such luck! He has left all five in the race. I thought Scatter Dice put in an eye-catching run in the Northumberland Plate last week and briefly looked to have gone ahead in the dash to the line. Fennell Bay is another tough nut to pass on his day but both horses seem to have been running every week. Star Lahib must also have a squeak after some consistent efforts but none of them scream out at you.

I fancied Quixote for last week’s Plate as a lively outsider but Clive Brittain decided to divert him here instead. Hayley Turner is an interesting booking having last ridden him at Southwell last year. His run against Montaser was sound enough and he could be worth each-way support.

I just cannot work up any enthusiasm for Luca Cumani’s Franciscan and Strictly Silver might have had a chance but for a lousy draw. I am going to have an each-way on Scatter Dice, a name that seems wholly appropriate for a mind-boggling race!

Quixote 16-1 Ladbrokes
Scatter Dice 20-1 Skybet

Haydock Park July 6th Ante-Post Preview

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Prices are now up on the two feature races at Haydock on Saturday, the Lancashire Oaks and the Old Newton Cup. The latest going reports suggest that it is good, good to firm in places but we can take nothing for granted after last week’s Northumberland Plate fiasco. When was the last time you had horses being withdrawn from the same race because it was too firm and too soft!

Assuming we avoid both extremes, we should be set for some excellent racing. I have mixed feelings about Opinion because I had tipped his stable companion Rye House at Ascot. It was a bit galling to see Ryan Moore switch to Opinion when Rye House was withdrawn and then proceed to bolt up.

Moore is on duty at Sandown on Saturday so Keiren Fallon has been provisionally booked for the ride. At the time of writing he is not yet a confirmed starter but I have about as much luck backing Fallon as I do with Jamie Spencer (i.e. none) so I’m inclined to pass him over. Only Camborne stands between Opinion and top weight and I’m not convinced that it was the greatest handicap ever run at Royal Ascot.

Behind Opinion were Ustura, Blue Surf, Hanoverian Baron and Highland Castle. You can forget the finishing position of Highland Castle as he never saw daylight at any stage. Luca Cumani loves preparing one for this race but I’m not sure that Franciscan fits his usual profile. It is true that he ran his best race for a long time at Carlisle last time but it was still only Carlisle. I think I will pass this race over until running plans are confirmed.

The one that interests me in the Lancashire Oaks is Godolphin’s Albasharah. She reeled off three victories before being pitched into a competitive handicap at the Royal meeting. She was sent off as favourite despite a 16lb hike in the weights and may well have won if she had got any sort of run in the race. De Sousa has been riding well but, for whatever reason, Albasharah never had a chance and did well to stay on strongly into fifth. This represents another step up in class but she could be good enough.

Wild Coco and Songbird are not yet certain runners from Lady Cecil’s stable and Banoffee didn’t settle properly in the Oaks or at Chester and may struggle to last home. Moment In Time and Midnight Soprano also have chances but I’ll take a chance on Albasharah at 6-1.

Lancashire Oaks
Albasharah 6-1 BetVictor