Tag: Orchestra

Epsom Derby Day Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Oaks day proved to be extremely profitable despite Ihtimal failing to reach the frame in the big race. Taghrooda (5-1) more than covered our stakes on the Godolphin filly and we also scored with Thistle Bird (7-2), French Navy (13-2) and Abseil (5-2). I hope that some of you had them linked up in doubles and trebles!

It is going to be difficult to follow that on Derby day but we’ll do our best. At the time of writing, the going is something of a mystery. It was drying out to good to firm on Friday evening but the forecasts are for heavy thundery rain tomorrow so it’s pretty much anybody’s guess. The safest option is probably to keep the soft ground horses on your side.

William Haggas has his stable in great form and saddles two in the opener (just to complicate things!). Of the two, I prefer the filly Flippant who has twice battled back to win races that it would have been easier to lose. She was past and looked beaten at Haydock last autumn but refused to give and switched around the leaders to get back up and win. She displayed the same qualities in winning over a mile at Chepstow last time and I think the mile and a quarter will be right up her street.

Not many two-year-olds get completely shut off in the home straight and still get up to win on the bridle. Baitha Alga did exactly that at the May meeting and could present Frankie Dettori with a Derby day winner in the Woodcote Stakes. She was quickly away and did everything right at Chester so should handle the Epsom downhill run without any problems.

Cirrus Des Aigles looks a class above his rivals in the Coronation Cup and should prove a very popular winner. He has already beaten Treve this season and it’s hard to imagine any of his rivals doing that. There seems to be confidence behind Flintshire but he’ll need to improve to beat the eight-year-old.

I previewed the Derby earlier in the week and believe that the Chester Vase could prove to have been a decent trial. A (very) long time ago I watched Quest For Fame beat Belmez in the same race and they proved to be pretty useful. Having gone for Orchestra (each-way) it would be foolish not to have a small bet on Romsdal at 28-1 after Mr G won the Oaks today in such fine style. We still have our ante-post bet on Kingston Hill so hopefully on of them will sneak a place at least.

Flippant 1.35 Epsom at 8-1 Paddy Power

Baitha Alga 2.05 Epsom at 11-4 Coral, Stan James

Cirrus Des Aigles 2.40 Epsom at Evens 888Sport

Kingston Hill 4.00 Epsom 10-1*

Orchestra 4.00 Epsom 16-1*

Romsdal 4.00 Epsom 28-1 BetVictor

*Ante-post

 

 

 

Epsom Derby 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Derby market has been dominated for months by Aidan O’Brien’s Australia, although we can expect to see his price drift towards 2-1 as the race nears. The fact that Ballydoyle run their usual mob of horses raises the usual questions and Ryan Moore complicated things further by choosing Geoffrey Chaucer over Chester Vase winner Orchestra.

Australia does have the best form in the book with his third in the 2000 Guineas but I wouldn’t be going overboard to back him at silly prices. Camelot came here after winning the Guineas in workmanlike fashion but it turned out to be a weak Derby. This year’s race is hard to weigh up but at least there is a decent turn-out.

The race won on a disqualification by Fascinating Rock is open to all forms of interpretation. The winner was not suited by the slow gallop, the runner-up Ebanoran quickened impressively but the vibes from the stable are weak. Geoffrey Chaucer didn’t get a great run up the rail but did no more than stay on to my eyes and I cannot see why he is suddenly all the rage.

The Chester Vase looked as though Orchestra was about to emerge as a strong second favourite for the Derby when he cruised around the home turn to take up the running. Whether it was greenness or lack of stamina I don’t know but he wandered in the closing stages and just held off Romsdal. If you had frozen the tape at the home turn you’d have said Orchestra would win by five lengths. I am still inclined to support him at an each-way price in preference to his stable companions.

I believe that Romsdal was flattered to get so close and I don’t like Western Hymn. He put in a laboured performance last time and I’m not convinced that he’s up to this task. The Grey Gatsby’s French Derby (I still don’t believe it is worthy of the name over a mile and a quarter) has convinced some scribes that the Dante form is top class. I felt that True Story ran like a non-stayer while Arod showed his inexperience and could be a Leger prospect.

Our only surviving ante-post bet is on Kingston Hill. The saving grace with him is that Roger Varian has his stable in great form. He won’t mind a bit of cut in the ground either but he is not certain to stay. The Lingfield Trial looked distinctly ordinary so we’ll add Orchestra to Kingston Hill and hope to upset the favourite.

Kingston Hill at 10-1 (ante-post)

Orchestra at 16-1 (Paddy Power)