Tag: Outstrip

Newmarket Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

After months of anticipation, Guineas weekend is upon us! I broke with tradition by placing two bets on the 2000 Guineas before June was out last summer and both have made it to the final line up. That is an achievement in itself but I’m very confident that Kingman can win the season’s first classic.

2000 Guineas

Our ante-post book looks remarkably healthy. Kingman was advised in this column at 14-1 after his impressive debut while War Command was tipped at 10-1 after Royal Ascot. The latter has been overshadowed by stable companion Australia in the build-up but his price has contracted significantly in recent days and it would not surprise me to see him prove the pick of the O’Brien runners.

I topped off our portfolio last week by suggesting that Outstrip was over-priced at 56-1 with Betfair. The grey has a great finishing kick as he showed in the Breeders’ Cup and a repeat of that performance would certainly put him in the frame here.

There are plenty of dangers, notably Craven winner Toormore who remains unbeaten. He could only beat what was put in front of him that day and is closely matched with Outstrip on Goodwood form from last season. I’m happy to let our horses run with adding any further investment.

Kingman 14-1*

War Command 10-1*

Outstrip 56-1*

1000 Guineas

A huge field of 19 go to post for the fillies classic on Sunday and our hopes are firmly pinned to the Ihtimal mast. My regular followers will know that she has done us proud in the past and I see no reason to desert her now.

Her victory in the UAE Oaks was very impressive, quickening clear in the style of a smart performer. For some reason she has not captured the imagination of the betting public and is still available at an each-way price. I first tipped her at 16-1 and then followed up at 10-1 last week.

I did consider Rizeena last season but felt that Ihtimal was more likely to truly stay the Newmarket mile. I still cannot see how Rizeena can be less than half of the price of Ihtimal. Miss France was bitterly disappointing first time out and Vorda looks like a sprinter for all the world. Tapestry and Bracelet are more likely dangers but I remain confident in Ihtimal.

Ihtimal at 16-1 and 10-1*

*Ante-post advice

2000 Guineas Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The 2000 Guineas picture has been pretty static since Kingman annihilated his field in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury. He is a best priced 11-8 at the moment and I cannot see him getting much bigger than that.

I tipped Kingman at 14-1 after his win in a Newmarket maiden back in June last year. I remember questioning my sanity at the time as I had already re-invested some of my Royal Ascot winnings on War Command. I cannot ever remember backing horses so early for the 2000 Guineas.

In the case of War Command, you’d have thought that going on to win a Dewhurst would have ensured his place among the favourites but not a bit of it. Aidan O’Brien’s glowing praise of Australia has left him as the clear stable favourite with War Command eased out to around 16-1. Hopefully he will still take his chance but there has not been much in the way of confidence emanating from Ballydoyle about his chances.

Toormore’s Craven victory was workmanlike rather than spectacular and he has been easy to back at around 7-1 since. You could make a good case for him as an each-way bet at those odds. He may not have been suited by having to make his own pace that day and at least we know that he is fit. However, his run just did not excite onlookers in the way that Kingman did.

There is one strange anomaly in the ante-post betting and that is that Betfair are showing 56-1 about Godolphin’s Outstrip. There appears to be a cool dismissal about the Godolphin horses as I cannot believe that Ihtimal is still such a big price for the Guineas and Oaks after her brilliant Meydan win in the UAE Oaks.

Outstrip was unlucky to be caught by Toormore at Goodwood as he hit the front plenty soon enough. Richard Hughes made the victory look far easier than it actually was and I don’t believe there will ultimately prove to be much between the pair as three-year-olds. Outstrip went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a late swoop and that is the style of racing that suits the grey best. He may prove no match for Kingman but he is no 56-1 chance.

Outstrip at 56-1 Betfair

*Kingman at 14-1

*War Command at 10-1

*Ante-post advice

St Leger Day Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

We are on a roll after Lightning Thunder (5-2), The Lark (15-8) and Ihtimal (13-8). Followers of my regular column for a well-known bookmaker may have helped themselves to five consecutive winners on Friday including 10-1 shot Sir Reginald! If anyone had them in an accumulator donations are welcome!

That heaps the pressure on for the final day of the St Leger meeting. I would love to have stuck with the girls after the three flying fillies so far this week but I am entrusting the nap vote to a colt on Saturday. The horse in question is Godolphin’s Outstrip in the opening Champagne Stakes.

Anyone who saw the grey horse’s debut at Newmarket in June cannot fail to have been impressed. After a tardy start, he swept through the field to defeat stable companion True Story by a length and a half. But it was his second outing at Goodwood that marks him out as a seriously talented colt.

Racing keenly over seven furlongs in the Group 2 Veuve Cliquot Champagne Stakes at Goodwood, he was driven into the lead over a furlong out and quickly went two lengths clear. Richard Hughes was still on a high from Toronado’s Sussex Stakes victory and galvanised Toormore to cut down Outstrip on the line by a neck. Richard Fahey’s Parbold was staying on well in third place in going officially described as good to soft.

Parbold has since finished a close third in the Gimcrack Stakes at York whilst the fourth and fifth have both run respectably at Town Moor this week. One of his main rivals could be another imposing grey in the form of The Great Gatsby. He seemed to run in snatches at York last time and was possibly a little flattered by his proximity to Treaty Of Paris at the line. The betting suggests that The Great Gatsby will finish in front here but I wouldn’t be too sure.

Anjaal did nothing wrong when winning the July Stakes at Newmarket but that form has been let down since and all of his form is on a faster surface. Cable Bay ran on well in the Gimcrack and could be better suited by the extra furlong here but I feel that Outstrip will have too much dash for these if he is delivered late.

Our ante-post bet on Excess Knowledge at 7-1 has at least made it to the day of the race and it’s all in the capable hands of James Doyle. Good luck to him on his first classic ride in the famous Abdullah silks.

Outstrip 9-4 Totesport, Betfred

Horse Racing Preview – Saturday 13th July

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

On Friday we suffered a bad case of Seconditis. The “Big Two” didn’t really fire after their victories at Royal Ascot. Rizeena seemed to hang fire and lug to her left when Doyle asked her to quicken. Perhaps the ground was too fast for her.

I’m not quite sure what to make of the Falmouth Stakes. As I mentioned in my preview, it is simply amazing how much trouble a jockey can find in a small field in the wide open spaces of Newmarket. There is no doubt that Elusive Kate would have been disqualified a few years ago for carrying Sky Lantern across the track. Apart from it being impossible to overtake something travelling diagonally in your path, the whip-cracking across the horse’s face just about put the tin hat on it!

You don’t realise how often this goes on until you see the head on footage. A classic case in point was the closing race of the Royal meeting when Shahwardi was swiped across the head by an exaggerated whipping action from Jimmy Fortune on the eventual winner. Apparently it is an accepted part of race riding. Because the jockey is facing forward, they are deemed to be unaware that they are smacking a rival over the face.

Anyway, not content with two seconds we finished off with Moviesta looking certain to win the sprint handicap and yet somehow failing to do so. Whether Mulrennan was over-confident I’m not sure but I suppose you have to hand it to Fahey’s filly, Heaven’s Guest. She has been on the go all season and just gives everything she’s got.

Our Saturday ante-post bets are on Shea Shea at 9-2 in the July Cup and Niceofyoutotellme at 12-1 in the Magnet Cup. I think the race planners have gone in for overkill this weekend as there is top quality racing at Newmarket, York and Ascot. The Magnet Cup is playing second fiddle to Newmarket which means Ascot’s Summer Mile gets third billing.

Aljamaaheer has been a good friend of mine, remarkable considering that he has still only won two races. I’ve backed him at big prices in the Lockinge and Queen Anne and collected handsomely on the each-way bet. Tomorrow he’s got to go and win a race and, on past experience, he will come second!

Godolphin’s two-year-olds are starting to get into overdrive and I think Outstrip could be one of the better ones. The horse he beat here last time bolted up on Friday and he should follow suit on Saturday.

I could write a book about the runners in the Bunbury Cup! There’s Brae Hill who seemingly likes to be alone in his races (as when winning last year), Dance And Dance trying to make up for being balloted out of the Hunt Cup and Excellent Guest who pops up when you least expect it. But I’m siding with the Irish raider Burn The Boats. He landed a gamble at the Curragh, stays a mile and could be less exposed than some of these.

Ascot also stages a £100,000 sprint handicap to open the card and last year’s 1,2,3 are back for more. I’m torn between Barnet Fair and Taajub as both ran eye-catching prep races last time out. I’m just going to go with Barnet Fair because he seems to finish his races better than Taajub.

Channel 4 are covering 10 races tomorrow. Apart from the fact that we get more racing, we also get less waffle!

Ante-Post
Niceofyoutotellme 12-1
Shea Shea 9-2

Aljamaaheer 5-2 William Hill
Outstrip 3-1 Coral
Burn The Boats 10-1 William Hill
Barnet Fair 10-1 Coral