Fast Pitch, Pink Ball Welcome Pakistan to Australia

Pakistan has arrived in Australia for a three-match test series, beginning with a day-night test in Brisbane. We take a look at the main talking points ahead of the match and give our tips for finding the best betting options.

The Last Time These Two Met

In the 2014/15 series, Australia was deeply embarrassed. The Australians caved to spin in the UAE, but as is often the case in matchups between these two sides, the home side usually prevails – so Australia is well and truly expected to bounce back from that 2-0 series defeat two years ago.

Both games were bossed by Pakistan. By 221 runs and 356 runs. Expect none of the same here, and more of the same of Pakistan’s last trip to Australia – they lost all nine games across the three formats including a 3-0 clean sweep in the test matches.

The Teams

Australia (likely):

1 David Warner, 2 Matt Renshaw, 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Peter Handscomb, 6 Nic Maddinson, 7 Matthew Wade, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Josh Hazlewood, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jackson Bird.

The Australians will be unchanged from the side that saved some face and beat South Africa in the third test of that series. Despite several of the personnel changing the group will also be on a high after sweeping New Zealand in the interruptive ODI series.

Pakistan (from):

Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), Azhar Ali, Sami Aslam, Sharjeel Khan, Younis Khan, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), Mohammad Rizwan, Yasir Shah, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Amir, Wahab Riaz, Rahat Ali, Sohail Khan, Imran Khan.

Pakistan hasn’t shown their hand yet, but they have retained the same group of players that were soundly beaten by New Zealand recently. While competitive at times in that series, their batsman lacked runs and made things incredibly hard for their talented bowling unit. They’ll need more from the likes of Misbah, Ali and Sami Aslam.

The Key Players

Australia: Josh Hazlewood is the completely unregarded, humble and quiet achieving lynchpin of the Australian fast bowling stocks that rarely gets the credit he deserves. His accuracy and patience traits pale in comparison to the speed and swing of Mitchell Starc, however, they are arguably more important to his team’s chances. He’s unrelenting and the perfect foil for Starc, especially as players relax a touch when they don’t have Starc screaming in at them. Look out for Hazlewood to have a big impact on this series.

Pakistan: The fast Australian pitches could suit one player more than any other in the Pakistan squad, and that’s Sarfraz Ahmed. The wicketkeeper-batsman loves to play his shots; hit through the line. Consistent bounce and with a bit of speed behind the ball (especially at the GABBA) could suit his game immeasurably. He could thrive with the extra bounce unlike some of his teammates who may struggle.

The Match Odds

Australia – $1.38 at Unibet.

Pakistan – $6.60 at Betfair.

Draw – $7.40 at Betfair.

The Prediction

Australia will be far too strong over the three games let alone the series opener. They’ll boss the tempo of the game, so expect huge totals and twenty wickets. Australia to carry on their revitalisation and get their second straight win with the exciting and young squad.

The Best Bets

Usman Khawaja to top score at $4.50 from William Hill looks like good money. He loves batting in Australian conditions and generally turns hundreds into really big ones.

Wahab Riaz may enjoy the extra pace of the GABBA if he gets a chance to play. Cricket fans all over the world will remember his spell during the World Cup to Shane Watson and if he can generate anywhere near the same sort of pace and discomfort in spells here he could easily be the top Pakistan bowler. $4.50 again at William Hill.

Pakistan Braced for Another Chilly Reception

More seam and swing is expected in Hamilton for the second test between New Zealand and Pakistan starting today. Green pitches that offer support to the bowlers was once a tried and tested formula for matches hosted in New Zealand as the home side looked to utilise their home advantage to put touring batsman under pressure. After a brief departure from the formula, NZ Cricket has returned to seaming conditions. And it worked excellently in game one of this series.

Will it work again? Or will Pakistan win a crucial toss and flip the script?

Find out our prediction and betting tips below:

The Last Time These Two Met

The rain affected first test in Christchurch threw up little by way of surprises. The Pakistan batsmen were always expected to struggle in swinging conditions, and debutant Colin de Grandhomme took full advantage to take the game away from Pakistan on the second morning. New Zealand ended up taking the spoils by a comfortable eight wickets.

The Teams

New Zealand (likely):

1 Jeet Raval, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson (capt.), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Henry Nicholls, 6 Colin de Grandhomme, 7 BJ Watling (wk), 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Neil Wagner, 11 Matt Henry

For the Black Caps, Trent Boult has been ruled out, paving the way for impressive seamer Matt Henry to resume his stop-start test career. Mitchell Santner also returns to the side after breaking a hand in the nets. He replaces Todd Astle. There were some concerns over an eye problem for Ross Taylor, but he will play and have surgery after the test series.

Pakistan (likely):

1 Sami Aslam, 2 Azhar Ali (capt.), 3 Babar Azam, 4 Younis Khan, 5 Mohammad Rizwan, 6 Asad Shafiq, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Yasir Shah, 10 Mohammad Amir, 11 Sohail Khan

Pakistan may opt for Mohammad Rizwan instead of Sharjeel Khan. While What Riaz could replace Rahat Ali. The two bowling changes will help the side to take twenty wickets on a surface expected to give plenty of assistance, but they don’t fix an already long tail.

The Key Players

New Zealand

Tim Southee – A slightly odd highlight for a bowler that has been without his best for some time. The former spearhead has lost speed, swing and rhythm since Alan Donald and then Shane Bond left the NZ coaching group. However, in this test, without Trent Would, he’s needed more than ever. He’s the main swing bowler in the group (Wagner and Henry are much more into the pitch bowlers) and in favourable conditions needs to take charge and make the batsmen uncomfortable.

Pakistan

Azhar Ali – The Pakistani captain was solid in Christchurch without being spectacular. He batted for 173 balls in the second innings to blunt the NZ bowling group at the start of the second dig, but a better approach to turning over the strike is now required. Bowlers get too comfortable bowling to one player and not conceding runs, the pressure goes on the batsman and not the bowler. Ali should be looking to help out his fellow batsman and keep the scoreboard ticking over, because once he falls, the team has a penchant to collapse. He’s especially crucial given Misbah will miss the match.

The Match Odds

New Zealand – $2.40 at Unibet.

Pakistan – $5.10 at Unibet.

Draw – $2.54 at Unibet.

The Prediction

It’s hard to see Pakistan putting up more of a fight than they did in Christchurch. That’s not implying their not good enough or mentally prepared to tough it out, it’s simply an indication of the unfamiliarity of the cold, bowler friendly conditions. Without Misbah the challenge looks too great. New Zealand by five wickets or 150 runs.

The Best Bets

If you believe in batsmen being “due” to score runs, then the money on Ross Taylor is attractive. He’s paying $5 to be New Zealand best batsman. He’s had his recent struggles but has traditionally been pretty consistent against Pakistan.

Cricket World Cup: Australia v Pakistan – QF 3 Preview

Australia v Pakistan duels are generally separated by home form and away form.  Very rarely does the touring team perform well in the home countries’ conditions.  This was true in the most recent test series the teams played where Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq made a mockery of Mitchell Johnson and co.  However, the one day game is the ultimate leveller, and results in the ODI format have not been as intertwined with the conditions.

That said, we’re not giving Pakistan much of a chance against the most complete team of the World Cup.  Australia have every facet covered, including a bona fide spin option in Glenn Maxwell.  Even with that prediction we would prefer a close match that rewards the fans with the type of cricket that each is capable off.

The Last Time These Two Met

After blowing the Australian test team out of the water in October last year, the Pakistan ODI side suffered a reversal when they were completely outplayed to lose the one day series 3-0.  The Sharjah and Dubai hosted series became famous for the final one-dater when Glenn Maxwell bowled a double wicket maiden in the final over to see Australia home by 1 run.  Hopefully, today’s match is equally as exciting.

The Teams

Australia (likely): 1 Aaron Finch, 2 David Warner, 3 Steven Smith, 4 Michael Clarke (capt), 5 Shane Watson, 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 James Faulkner, 9 Mitchell Johnson, 10 Mitchell Starc, 11 Pat Cummins/Josh Hazlewood

Australia are relatively well-settled now that Shane Watson performed in his new number 6 role.  His runs against Sri Lanka and wickets against Scotland have all but assured him of the nod ahead of Mitchell Marsh.  The decision between Cummins and Hazlewood might be the only one for the selectors.

Pakistan (likely):  1 Ahmed Shehzad, 2 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 3 Haris Sohail, 4 Misbah-ul-Haq (capt.), 5 Umar Akmal, 6 Sohaib Maqsood, 7 Shahid Afridi, 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Sohail Khan, 10 Rahat Ali, 11 Ehsan Adil/Yasir Shah

The loss of Mohammad Irfan is a big one for Pakistan.  His awkwardness might have posed a challenge for the Australian top order.  Ehsan Adil will play an important role in replacing him.

The Key Players

Steven Smith – The Australians have the most powerful batting line-up in the tournament.  Warner, Finch, Faulkner, Maxwell and Watson are all power hitters.  But the work of the more subtle Steven Smith is crucially important.  The glue of the middle order has flourished at number three and looks to be back to his pre Christmas form.  Amongst all the fanfare of the in your face Australians, we think it will be the quiet achieving Steven Smith that steals the show today.

The Match Odds*

Australia – $1.16

Pakistan – $5.50

*Courtesy of Ladbrokes Australia.

The Prediction

We sense that all quarterfinals are going to follow the for guide and end up being awfully one-sided.  We see this one no differently to the two qaurter-finals thus far and are predicting a big Australian win.  By 7 wickets or 80 runs.

The Best Bets

As above, Steven Smith to Top Score @ $5.00

Mitchell Starc as Man of the Match @ $7.00

Cricket World Cup Day 29 Recap

The Cricket World Cup has officially reached knockout stages after the Pool games wrapped up yesterday.  The West Indies and Ireland sealed the final two quarterfinal spots in Pool B with effortless wins against UAE and Ireland respectively.

The quarterfinals are now confirmed as:

Sri Lanka v South Africa

India v Bangladesh

Australia v Pakistan

New Zealand v West Indies

Here’s how yesterday’s games panned out.

Day 29 Results

1. West Indies v UAE

The West Indies put their indifferent form and the threat of Cyclone Pam behind them to comfortably seal their place in the Cricket World Cup quarterfinals with a win over the UAE in Napier.

Needing to progress their net run rate and beat impending rain, the West Indies did everything right after winning the toss and dismissing the UAE quickly.  It could well have been even quicker after the associates were 6/46; Jason Holder doing most of the damage.

There was a slight recovery.  Amjad Javed and Nasir Aziz were the architects; the pair adding 107 for the 7th wicket and extending the match for the brave souls that did turn out to a rather grey McLean Park.  Aziz’s innings was particularly surprising given his highest first class score is just 4.  Both Aziz and Javed notched fifties, delaying the inevitable, and causing the West Indies to nervously glance skywards as the partnership progressed.

The West Indies easily reach the mediocre target.  They needed to chase it within 33 overs to ensure a playoff position (barring a tie on the later Adelaide game), and managed to do with 3 overs to spare.  The relatively unused extended squad members, Johnson Charles and Jonathan Carter, did the bulk of the scoring.  Charles looked frenetic, Carter composed as their fifties atoned for Chris Gayle’s absence.

The West Indies set a date with New Zealand in Wellington where they’ll believe anything can happen.

West Indies 176 for 4 (Charles 55, Carter 50*) beat UAE 175 (Aziz 60, Javed 56, Holder 4-27) by six wickets

2. Pakistan v Ireland

Ireland’s fairytale run in the Cricket World Cup came to an abrupt end when they were well-beaten by Pakistan in the final Pool game of the tournament.

After witnessing the West Indies dispatch the UAE, Ireland needed at least a tie to make it through to a knockout match but failed to summon the batting performance necessary to test a vulnerable Pakistan batting unit.  William Porterfield (107) fought bravely, but lacked support in a total that appeared to be 50 short of a competitive score based on the surface, and 80 short based on the Irish bowling attack.  What Riaz the best bowler with three wickets, with the other 7 shared amongst Sohail Khan and Rahat Ali, and others.

In reply, Pakistan never threatened to let nerves get the better of them.  They chased the total with remarkable ease to set up a quarterfinal against tournament favourites Australia.  Sarfraz was the star of the show.  He made a mature hundred to anchor the chase, after the bulk of the total was knocked off by him and Ahmed Shehzad (63).  Sarfraz has made an excellent contribution in the two games he has featured in, with both bat and gloves.  6 dismissals and 150 runs is an excellent return from two games, and he has likely secured a place in the starting team for the Australian match also in Adelaide.

Pakistan 241 for 3 (Sarfraz 101*, Shehzad 63) beat Ireland 237 (Porterfield 107, Wahab 3-54) by seven wickets

 

Cricket World Cup: Day 28 Recap and Day 29 Preview

Day 28 Results

1. India v Zimbabwe

Brendon Taylor’s final game for Zimbabwe almost followed the script.  The final innings hundred was there – an incredible collection of reverse sweeps, powerful lofts, and cheeky ramps – and at 93/4 the victory looked a possibility too.  Unfortunately, India’s powerful middle order covered over the top order cracks and completed victory by 6 wickets and 8 balls remaining.  The crux of the chase was an unbeaten 196 run partnership between Suresh Raina and MS Dhoni.  The pair rescuing a dire situation for the unbeaten Indian side, after the top order had collapsed to 93/4.

Earlier, Taylor had thrilled a large Auckland crowd with a final international innings of the highest quality. He scored 138, including 70 from his final 29 balls.  He was supported by Sean Williams in the most significant partnership of the innings, before Sikandar Raza added a quickfire 28 just as the momentum threatened to collapse.

Eden Park is always a difficult ground to defend totals on, and it proved too tricky for the Zimbabwe bowlers as Raina and Dhoni maturely saw India to their sixth World Cup win.

India 288 for 4 (Raina 110, Dhoni 85) beat Zimbabwe 287 (Taylor 138, Williams 50, Yadav 3-43, Mohit 3-48, Shami 3-48) by 6 wickets

 

2. Australia v Scotland

Australia comfortably beat Scotland and the rain to wrap up second spot in Pool A.

Opting to bowl first to beat the rain, Australia quickly gained the ascendancy with quick wickets to all of the bowlers.  In fairness, the Scottish batsman, who have struggled all tournament, contributed to their own demise with a host of rash shots and an unusually aggressive mindset.  In all, Scotland made just 130, with a brief break in the play for weather not able to save them from somewhat of a humiliation.

Mitchell Starc took 4 wickets to leap to the top of the wickettaker charts, Cummins had three, and Watson, Johnson and Maxwell all got in on the action.

Australia then used the chase to give Michael Clarke an extended bat.  He opened and made 47, and Finch, Watson, Faulkner and Warner all pitched in with handy efforts at better than a run a ball.  The win sets up a quarterfinal against the winner of todays Ireland v Pakistan match.

Australia 133 for 3 (Clarke 47) beat Scotland 130 (Machan 40, Starc 4-14, Cummins 3-42) by seven wickets

 

Day 29 Matches

1. West Indies v UAE, McLean Park (Napier – cloudy, windy, chance of rain), starts 11:00am local time

West Indies – $1.04

UAE – $11.00

West Indies must beat the UAE today and then await the result of the Pakistan / Ireland game from Adelaide.  Task number one will be tricky given the cyclone from Vanuatu threatening to bring adverse conditions to the East Coast of New Zealand.  It might also be tough if Chris Gayle is passed unfit to compete; his back still a big worry.

The final chance for UAE to register a win comes at the familiar location of Napier where they have based themselves for much of the tournament.  They’re coming off a relatively poor showing against South Africa, so they’ll need to improve if they are to crash the West Indies party.

2. Pakistan v Ireland, Adelaide Oval (Adelaide – partly cloudy), starts 2:00pm local time

Pakistan – $1.27

Ireland – $3.82

Ireland’s most important Cricket World Cup game in history will settle a tense Pool B.  Ireland need a win to make it through to the knockout stages for the first time (they have previously made the Super 8’s in 2007).  They could also hope for an abandoned game in Napier, but they would much prefer to be the masters of their own destiny.

Irelands’s poor net run rate is their major issue heading into the final match.  They’ve done commendably to beat UAE, West Indies and Zimbabwe but need to muster every ounce of skill and self-belief to do the unthinkable.

 

Day 29 Multi

The “Gayle Force Upset” Multi

Chris Gayle loves McLean Park, a test 197* springs to mind as evidence of his love of the small ground, but he’s also doubtful with a bad back.  If he plays we’re backing him to perform amongst the cyclone.

Gale To Top Score at $2.88 + Ireland winning Head-to-Head at $3.82 = $11.00

Odds courtesy of Sportsbet Australia.

Cricket World Cup: Day 21 Recap

Saturday’s cricketing action saw Betcirca come good on a number of bets.  We successfully predicted runs for Brendon Taylor and Seam Williams despite Zimbabwe falling a few runs short against Ireland.  In the other match, Pakistan caused a major shock by beating World Cup frontrunners South Africa.

Day 21 Results

1. Pakistan v South Africa

Pakistan’s bowlers delivered an unexpected win in their rain shortened World Cup match against South Africa overnight.  The win sees Pakistan move to third in Pool B and level with South Africa and Ireland on 6 points.

It came courtesy of their bowlers.  Seamers, Rahat Ali; Wahab Riaz; and Mohammed Irfan all took three wickets each in an excellent display of disciplined yet aggressive short pitched bowling.  South Africa’s batsman were reckless with their wickets, and gifted nine catches out of the ten wickets to fall.

Batting first, Pakistan made it to 222, largely thanks to another half century by Misbah ul-Haq (56) and a mature first World Cup knock form reinstated keeper Sarfraz Ahmed (49).  Useful contributions also came from Younis Khan and Shahid Afridi in difficult conditions of wind and rain.  The total was unusually small for Eden Park but was more than Australia almost managed to defend against New Zealand a week earlier.

It proved to be enough.  South Africa imploding to be all out for 202.  A spate of rash strokes gave them little chance of handling the total.  No one taking the requisite responsibility to see them through to their total or providing AB de Villers with support.

AB de Villiers commented after the match that “he had nothing good to say about his team”, but he probably had a few kind words for himself.  He was the South African side’s only hope as he smashed his way to 77 off 58 balls – in the process enjoying the small square boundaries at Eden Park.

Certainly a boil-over, one that was terrific for Pool B.  But not one that will affect the semi-finalists in our view.

Pakistan 222 (Misbah 56, Steyn 3-30) beat South Africa 202 (de Villiers 77, Rahat 3-40, Wahab 3-45, Irfan 3-52) by 29 runs (D/L method)

2. Zimbabwe v Ireland

The second Pool B match of the day featured too similar sides.  Ireland and Zimbabwe are not within the top echelon of world cricket teams, but they have both handled themselves nicely in this World Cup.  Competitive in most of their matches, just lacking a little bit of death bowling nous or luck to stop the huge totals against them.

Today’s game again featured huge totals.  Ireland made 331 for 8 form their allotment.  Ed Joyce and Andre Balbirnie were the mainstays of the innings – Joyce getting to a hundred, and Balbirnie narrowly missing out.

In response Zimbabwe looked on course for much of the game led by World Cup standouts Brendon Taylor and Sean Williams.  Taylor had 121 from just 91 balls before he tried one lofted shot too many.  However, with Sean Williams still going along nicely, Zimbabwe were a firm chance.  If Sean Williams had batted the 50 overs they might have got home.  Unfortunately, he was given out on 96, caught on the boundary by John Mooney in a moment of YouTube notoriety.  The controversy surrounded whether Mooney had touched the boundary rope when completing the catch.  Replays suggested some portion may have been touching the rope, but there was an additional complication from the shadow of the boot.

Who really knows?  And at the end of the day the newspapers reported a 5 run win to Ireland.

Ireland 331 for 8 (Joyce 112, Balbirnie 97, Chatara 3-61) beat Zimbabwe 326 (Taylor 121, Williams 96, Cusack 4-32) by five runs