Tag: Patriots

Super Bowl prop bets: the good, the bad, the crazy

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Super Bowl is sure to be one of the biggest betting events of 2017 and NFL fans are by no means restricted to betting on traditional lines like outright winner, point spread and points total. In the buildup to the big game the leading bookmakers compete to offer the weirdest and most wonderful prop bets (special bets) to make headlines and win business. Getting involved can be great fun, but also a good way to waste your money, so here we have rounded up the good, the bad and the crazy from this year’s prop bets:

The Good

The obvious bets are outright winner (the New England Patriots should win it), point spread (the Atlanta Falcons might sneak this as it is forecast to be close) and points totals (under 58.5 looks good thanks to the strength of the Pats’ defence). But a really important prop bet can be added to that mix: Super Bowl MVP. In the last 15 years a quarterback has won it nine times, a wide receiver three times, a wide receiver twice and a safety once. Chances are it will be won by a quarterback again and that pits Tom Brady against Matt Ryan. History is in Brady’s favour as he has already won Super Bowl MVP three times and is a big game player. Matt Ryan is the hottest QB in the league right now, but that might not be enough to stop Brady. He is odds-on favourite at 10/11 with Paddy Power, while Ryan is 15/8 with Sky Bet.

One spanner in the works could be Julio Jones, Atlanta’s beast of a receiver, who looks interesting at 16/1 with William Hill and Bet365. He also looks a good option at 8/1 to score the first touchdown. Another good prop bet is half-time/full-time. If you fancy the Patriots to dominate, you can get 11/8 with Ladbrokes on them winning half-time/full-time, better than the 4/6 available on them winning outright. The 8/9 on New England winning more turnovers looks great too. LaGarette Blount at 4/1 for most rushing yards looks an interesting bet as the Pats will try to grind the Falcons down, and he is another good bet for first touchdown at 8/1 with Bet365.

The Bad

You can get 18/1 on the winner successfully defending the Super Bowl next season, but Brady is ageing and the Falcons probably won’t reach the big game again, so this looks best avoided. The 5/2 on a kicker missing an extra point looks a terrible idea. The 66/1 on someone achieving a Hail Mary looks tempting, but again best avoided, as is the 4/1 on a defensive touchdown being given away and the 13/1 on a kick return touchdown as these defences are too good for that.

The Crazy

Here we go. This year you can bet on: the primary colour of Joe Buck’s tie, the pattern of his tie, the extent of his facial hair, the amount of times Robert Kraft is shown on TV, the likelihood of a halftime sound malfunction, a wardrobe malfunction, Lady Gaga’s outfit, her hair colour and song choice, the visibility of her belly button, someone catching fire at the halftime show, how long the national anthem will take, Gaga getting booed, who will air the first commercial, who will win best commercial, anti-Trump speeches being made, whether a snake will make an appearance and many, many more. Most are fun if you’re only throwing small change on them, but two that could be interesting are: going over the over/under weight (249.5 lbs) of the heaviest player to score a touchdown as Blount is over, and the 7/4 on the first mention of Deflategate being in the first quarter.

Super Bowl contestants’ strengths, weaknesses and recent history analysed

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The countdown is on to Super Bowl LI and the bookmakers have made the New England Patriots clear favourites to beat the Atlanta Falcons. But this should prove to be a ferocious battle between the league’s best offence and its best defence and it really could go either way. It promises to be a great game, and we have compiled some essential information to arm yourself with before placing your wager:

Form

Without a doubt, New England has been the best team in the league this season. They were without Tom Brady for the first four games due to suspension but still went on to finish 14-2 in the regular season. New England simply breezed the playoffs, winning by 18 points in the Divisional Round and 19 points in the Conference Championship. Atlanta won their final four games of the regular season to finish 11-5 and qualify as second seeds to the playoffs. They also annihilated the competition, winning by 16 points and then 23 points despite facing two very tricky opponents.

Strengths

The Falcons have had by far and away the best offence in the league this season. In fact, their regular season offensive record is the eighth best in the history of the NFL, with 33.8 points per game. In the playoffs they kept it going, beating the Seahawks 36-20 and the Packers 44-21. New England has the league’s best defence by a considerable distance. They gave up just 15.6 points per game in the regular season, so it really is a case of unstoppable force meets immovable object.

Weaknesses

Atlanta’s defence has not been great this season. It caused them to lose five games in the regular season, and even when they were winning they were conceding a lot of points and scraping victories thanks to the strength of their offence. But their defensive form improved considerably in the playoffs and they kept two excellent offences relatively quiet. For the Patriots, there are no real weaknesses. Their defence is superb, but so is their offence. The only worry for Pats fans might be the absence of Rob Gronkowski, the record-breaking tight end who misses the game through injury.

Star Players

Leading the charge for New England is Brady, widely accepted as the best quarterback of all time. He has the experience, having led his team to seven Super Bowls, winning three of them, and he has the skill to take this questionable Falcons defence apart. Defensively, Malcolm Butler and Ron Ninkovich will make life extremely difficult for the Falcons. Atlanta’s star is undoubtedly Matt Ryan. He led the Falcons to 580 regular season points, putting them 71 clear of the second best team offensively, the Saints, and he did it with exceptional consistency and stats that lead all QBs in the league this season. But he has a lot of help from Julio Jones, who is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL and a key part of this offence.

Key clashes

The obvious clash is between the league’s two outstanding QBs. Ryan leads Brady in passing yards, passing touchdowns and pass completion this season, but Brady has that vital experience and has a higher all-time passer rating. The clash that determines it could be Butler v Jones. Butler has shut down many of the league’s best wide receivers this season and if he does a similar job on Jones the Super Bowl is New England’s. This is old hat for Pats coach Bill Belichick, coaching his seventh Super Bowl, and he has great tactical nous, but Falcons coach Dan Quinn will come at him, and that is the best way to take on New England, so it should prove a tremendous tactical battle.

History

What can the history books tell us about who might win this game? While Atlanta is the league’s hottest team right now, the Pats are historically the best team in the business. Belichick and Brady can be trusted in the big games, while there are more question marks over Ryan and Quinn. In four previous games, Brady has never lost to the Falcons, so he goes in with the perfect record. The Pats should win but expect a tight game. The favourite failed to cover the spread in five of Brady-Belichick’s six previous Super Bowls, and if you are looking at spread betting history is with Atlanta (who are -3), as the underdog has covered the spread in 13 of the past 16 Super Bowls.

NFL Super Bowl: Early Lines Make Patriots Favourites

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Bowl LI is looming and bookmakers have released early lines on the biggest sporting event in the American calendar. The New England Patriots are early favourites to win it for a fifth time, but face stern competition from the Atlanta Falcons and there is plenty of value to be had for NFL fans ahead of what promises to be a ferocious battle.

Early Lines

Leading bookmakers have made the New England Patriots the favourites and understandably so as they have been the most impressive team in the league this season. They breezed through the regular season with the league’s best record, despite missing QB Tom Brady for the first four games through suspension over the Deflategate fiasco, and have been untroubled in reaching the Super Bowl. They are expected to win it and the prices being touted are pretty good: Bet365, Ladbrokes and Boyle Sports are offering 20/31, Sky Bet, Coral and Betfred have 8/13 and William Hill has 5/8. You can make a healthy margin by jumping on the Patriots if you think they have what it takes. Atlanta is serious underdogs here and William Hill is offering the best price: 7/5 on a win for the Falcons.

Las Vegas has set the point spread at +3 for the Pats (-3 for the Falcons) and many bookmakers, including Bet365, have 10/11 on both outcomes. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and William Hill are all offering 5/6 on the Falcons +3 and even money on New England -3. Vegas expects it to be an exceptionally high-scoring game and has set one of the highest points totals lines in recent memory at 58 points. Sky Bet has the best odds on over 58.5 (evens), while Betfred and William Hill have the best price for under 58.5 (10/11).

Projections

If you take the season averages of the Pats and Falcons, they are on 61 points combined per game. But while the Falcons have the league’s highest scoring offence (and the Pats are not far behind on 27.6 points per game), the Patriots have the best defensive record, having given away just 15.6 points per game in the regular season. The Falcons’ defence has also hit form at just the right time, conceding far fewer points in recent weeks than they did earlier in the season. For that reason, the under 58.5 points looks good with Betfred and William Hill.

It promises to be a fantastic game, with two great offences going up against one another, and solid defences making life difficult for them. In Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, it pits two genuine superstars up against one another. They have been two of the best quarterbacks in the league this season and both deserve a Super Bowl berth. It is likely to be a close game. But when push comes to shove, the Patriots should have just a bit too much offensively for the Falcons and can outscore them.

Brady and co took apart a very strong Steelers defence in such a clinical fashion in the Conference Championship game, and it augurs well going into the Super Bowl for them. Atlanta’s defence has improved in recent weeks but has still been allowing some high points scores (21 against the Packers, 20 against the Seahawks, 32 against the Saints) and New England are better offensively than those teams. The Pats have been superb defensively, giving away just three points against the Broncos and then against the Jets towards the close of the regular season. They will concede more points against a formidable Falcons offence – containing Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman and Devont Freeman – but the team with the better defence usually wins the Super Bowl and this year that is New England. Either way, it should prove to be a tight game decided by a slender margin, so it looks better to play New England outright rather than on the spread right now as 20/31 still offers good value.

Patriots to Beat Steelers but Pittsburgh to Beat the Spread

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The New England Patriots have breezed to a record sixth consecutive AFC Championship game and now just the Pittsburgh Steelers stand between them and the Super Bowl. It will be a really tall order for Pittsburgh to win this one as the Pats have looked the best team in the league by some distance this season and are 11/8 favourites to win the Super Bowl (Sky Bet).

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers closed the regular season with seven straight wins to finish 11-5, winning the NFC North and qualifying as third seeds for the playoffs. They destroyed the Miami Dolphins in the Wildcard Round and then went on to face second-seeded Kansas City in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs were favourites and we tipped it to be a very close game but said the Steelers would steal it, and that is exactly what happened as they ran out 18-16 winners in a tense affair. Steelers kicker set a postseason record by scoring six field goals to edge it for Pittsburgh by the slenderest of margins. They go into the championship game as underdogs, but they will be emboldened by their recent form.

New England Patriots

New England has had the clearest run to the championship game than any of the other teams still left in the playoffs. QB Tom Brady was suspended for the first four games of the season over his role in the Deflategate fiasco, but it mattered little as the Pats powered to a 14-2 record, the best in the league. It left them as first seed in the AFC – a valuable position they squandered last season – and they sat out the Wildcard Round before securing an easy home game against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round.

Houston finished 9-7 and only scraped through thanks to an injury crisis at Oakland, and Brady duly picked them off. New England ran out 34-16 winners, covering the largest point spread in playoff history, as we suggested they would. Patriots RB Dion Lewis looked sensational as he used his lightning pace to become the first player to score on a rush, a catch and a kick return in a postseason game. With him and Brady firing on all cylinders, the Pats look invincible at present.

Projections

The Patriots beat the Steelers 27-16 in October in the regular season, but you should not read too much into that as Pittsburgh were missing QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is now back at full strength, and the Pats were blessed with the talents of star receiver Rob Gronkowski, who is now injured. The Steelers finished the regular season with the 12th best defence and have conceded just 28 points in two playoff games. Offensively they are superb as Roethlisberger has lots of great passing options, which creates gaps of space all over the field. In Le’Veon Bell they also have one of the league’s best RBs, and he has been sensational in the postseason. New England will need to shut him down to have any chance of winning.

The Steelers, meanwhile, will have to do their best to make Brady uncomfortable, as he is on a roll and has proven himself time and time again in the postseason. It looks like being a really close encounter that the Pats should just about shade, so the 5/12 on offer at Paddy Power on a New England win in front of their home crowd looks a decent bet, despite not providing a great deal of value. To get more bang for your buck, you will have to consider spread betting, and then it gets more complicated. It is not hard to imagine the Pats winning this by around three points, so they might not cover the spread and the 7/10 Bet365 has on Pittsburgh +6.5 looks a really good option as they are a competitive, battling team.

Super Bowl Favourites New England Face Huge Spread in Playoffs

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Just eight teams remain in the NFL playoffs and they are a mere two games away from reaching the Super Bowl, so it’s all getting excruciatingly tense Stateside. First up is an intriguing showdown between the Seahawks and the Falcons, before Super Bowl favourites the Patriots start their postseason campaign against the Texans.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Seattle made short work of the Lions in the Wildcard Round, routing them 26-6 in front of their home fans, but they face a much sterner test now. The Falcons finished the regular season with four wins in a row to go 11-5 and steal second seed spot ahead of the Seahawks, who ended up 10-5-1 after losing two of their final four regular season games. That means Atlanta have home field advantage, which could prove crucial here. These two teams met earlier in the season and it was a nail-biter as the Seahawks ran out 26-24 winners in Seattle in October. It is a source of great contention for the Falcons due to a pass interference call the referee missed when they were on a fourth down play late in the fourth. You would think that win would give the Seahawks confidence, but it is worth bearing in mind two things: on that day they had home field advantage and they had Earl Thomas. In Divisional Round they will have neither.

Thomas was a beast for the Seahawks this season. The Seattle safety limited Tom Brady and Drew Brees to just one touchdown pass combined over two games. The Seahawks defence only gave up seven touchdown passes in the 11 games he was on the field (albeit three of them were against Atlanta in that 26-24 win). Since his injury, they have lost three of seven and have not looked at all as solid. They are 3-4-1 on the road compared to 8-1 at home and it is hard to imagine them travelling all the way to Atlanta and getting the win. The best odds you can get on Atlanta are at around the 4/9 mark with Sky Bet, so for more value, back Atlanta -3.5 at 3/4 with Bet365.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

The Pats have been devastating this season, qualifying for the playoffs with the best record in the league at 14-2. The Texans, less so. They limped into the playoffs as fourth seed on 9-7 with the same record as the Titans but qualified as they had a better record against comparative teams. They benefited from a lucky draw in the Wildcard round as they hosted an Oakland Raiders team deprived of their star quarterback and his understudy due to an injury crisis, and went through. They are the weakest team left in the playoffs and this is expected to be a complete mismatch.

The Pats are 7/4 favourites to win the Super Bowl, while the Texans are rank outsiders at 66/1. The bookmakers have completely given up on Houston: the Texans are a massive 10/1 to win this with Boylesports, while the Pats are as low as 1/20 but best priced at 1/12 with Bet Victor. There is no value there, but the point spread is the largest in 18 years of playoff games, as Vegas has made Houston 16-point underdogs. The teams met earlier in the season on Week 3, when New England won 27-0 with a third string quarterback. This time Brady will be in the team and the Texans will be crushed. New England have covered some massive spreads in recent weeks and they can get the job done here, so the evens Paddy Power is offering on the Patriots -15.5 looks a good bet.

Patriots and Raiders battling it out for AFC top spot

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The final chapter in the regular NFL season begins on New Year’s Day and fans can look forward to an action-packed schedule full of intrigue. In the AFC the New England Patriots and the Oakland Raiders are locked in a fierce battle to emerge as number one seed and enjoy the home-field advantage that comes with it. If New England beat the Miami Dolphins, they will clinch that valuable status, but it will be easier said than done. The Raiders travel to the Denver Broncos, knowing they could end up as number one seed or fall to number five, so that is another crucial game.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

The Pats are on a six-game winning streak and have the best record in the league, leading the bookmakers to install them as favourites for the Super Bowl. William Hill has the best price, 15/8, with the Cowboys back on 4/1. New England is huge favourites to win the AFC, odds-on with all bookmakers, with 8/11 about the best price you can find with the likes of Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes. But the path to the Super Bowl will be made a lot easier for them if they earn top seed spot. Last season they blew number one spot with back-to-back losses in their last two games, against the Jets and Dolphins. The result was a tricky playoff schedule that saw them crash out to eventual Super Bowl champions the Denver Broncos.

They will be desperate to not make the same mistake this season and they know that a win over the Dolphins in their final game will clinch it. The Dolphins laboured badly against the Buffalo Bills in their last game but won it in overtime to secure a playoff berth. They are currently sixth seeds and will face the most difficult schedule, but if they win and the Chiefs lose, they move up to fifth and will avoid the Steelers in the playoffs, securing an easier tie against the Texans. They will be well up for this game, and it should prove to be a thriller. Many expect it to be close, but Dolphins’ quarterback Matt Moore is likely to struggle against the Pats’ outstanding defence, and New England can cover a -7 spread at 8/13 with Sky Bet after easily covering a record spread against the Jets last week.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Raiders are in the postseason for the first time since 2002 and went 12-3 with a 33-25 win over the Colts in week 16, but it came at a huge cost. Derek Carr’s broken fibula is a brutal blow for Oakland fans, who have waited so long for a return to the playoffs and rightly had Super Bowl dreams with Carr leading the charge. Now they have to make do with fourth-year pro Matt McGloin as his replacement and the odds on them winning the Super Bowl went out sharply. They are now as long as 28/1 to win it with Ladbrokes and nobody is giving them much of a chance. But a win at the already eliminated Broncos, whose Super Bowl defence went out with a whimper with a 33-10 defeat in Kansas City, would give McGloin confidence, and it is essential for the Raiders to get the win as the Chiefs are still in with a great chance of pipping them to the AFC West. William Hill has 4/5 on them covering a -3 spread and that looks a good bet as the Broncos are on a three-game losing streak and playing poorly.