Tag: Paul Nicholls

Ascot Saturday Preview

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As a mixture of rain, sleet and snow batter against the window it is hard to imagine that racing is going ahead at Ascot and Haydock this weekend. Amazingly, both courses report confidence that the meetings will go ahead.

We have reviewed the Grand National Trial at Haydock in some depth and pinned our hopes to Hawkes Point and Merry King. It will be fascinating to see how Mr McCoy gets along with Merry King but I am not expecting miracles. Although the jockey has seemingly ridden millions of winners, I seem to have a negative impact on his chances more often than not!

Both Hawkes Point and Our Father have entries at Ascot and Haydock and I am assuming that they will be heading north if both meetings survive. At the moment they are prominent in the betting at both courses so the market at Ascot is likely to change radically.

Course specialist Houblon Des Obeaux looks to have a difficult task with 11st 10lb while Teaforthree is using this as a stepping-stone to the Grand National. Chance Du Roy ran really poorly at Haydock last time after winning at Aintree. Highland Lodge and Night Alliance both pulled up last time so this is going to be a difficult to predict. With bookmakers likely to take a hefty deduction for the non-runners, the race is probably best left alone.

The two and a half mile handicap hurdle at 3.15 looks extremely competitive. David Pipe’s Heath Hunter is likely to be popular but it is difficult to get too excited about an easy Sedgefield winner, particularly as he emerged from a total fog that day. Like Minded ran extremely well last time out but is unlikely to be improving at the age of ten.

Kaylif Aramis was heavily backed for the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton but dropped away in the closing stages behind Saphir Du Rheu. He had previously finished sixth in the Ladbroke here and perhaps needs this trip to bring out his best.

Nicky Henderson’s Lough Kent is the dark horse here having his first race for the stable. He was a decent sort on the flat in France and won a Conditions chase in October. Bourne has run well here before but his victories are few and far between. It’s a really difficult race to be confident about but Kaylif Aramis makes each-way appeal at around 12-1.

Kaylif Aramis (each-way) at 12-1 William Hill

Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post update

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Twenty-nine horses have been left in the Betfair Hurdle including both Irish Saint and Irving from the Paul Nicholls stable. The Trainer has warned that Irving is unlikely to run if the going is extremely testing and that seems to be heavy hint as to the direction our cash should be going in.

Irish Saint bolted up in the mud at Ascot last time and has been raised 12lbs by the handicapper. Because of the conditions of Saturday’s race, he gets in here with only a 5lbs penalty so is theoretically 7lb’s well in at the weights.

These handicap good things don’t always win but, with the going currently soft and heavy in places, the omens are good for Irish Saint. Noel Fehily keeps the ride and I imagine that he couldn’t believe how well he was going at Ascot on this horse. He had previously run in the Ladbroke and got bogged down in the middle of the chasing pack.

That race may also hold the key to his biggest danger as David Pipe’s Dell’ Arca was still in touch when unseating his rider three out. The form for the big two-mile handicaps is really hard to fathom this season with neither the Greatwood nor the Ladbroke being boosted since. I backed Sametegal (2nd) in the Greatwood but he was slaughtered up at Musselburgh on Sunday.

It is difficult to be too confident about how Dell’ Arca will run as Pipe has had a couple of notable disappointments with Dynaste and The Liquidator. The victory of Red Sherlock recovered a bit of faith so we’ll give Dell’ Arca an each-way chance here.

Alan King’s Montbazon was on my horse to follow list a couple of seasons ago but has been out injured since finishing fourth at the festival behind Cinders And Ashes. This would be a very ambitious place to start him off by King has entered him in the Champion Hurdle so obviously believes the talent is still there. With the stable still recovering from the virus, I can’t support him here but I shall be keeping a close eye on him.

Of the others, Cheltenian is another that has had his problems and is hard to weigh up on a win in a poor race at Uttoxeter. His trainer managed to get that good hurdler Snap Tie back to win a big prize a couple of seasons ago so you cannot rule him out here.

Irish Saint at 7-1 Bet365

Dell’ Arca (each-way) at 9-1 Coral

¼ odds 1,2,3,4

Betfair Hurdle Preview

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The weather is continuing to play havoc with the racing programme in the UK and it is not looking that great for the weekend. The bookmakers have not even bothered pricing up the Saturday races so perhaps they know something we don’t?

If the weather relents by the following weekend, the Betfair Handicap Hurdle is scheduled for Newbury. Last year’s runaway success for My Tent Or Yours seems to have put everyone in the mind-set that a smart novice is what is required to win this. Admittedly Darlan was travelling ominously well the year before when he fell but he was exceptional too. What a shame that his life was so cruelly cut short.

The “talking horse” this year is Irving, trained by Paul Nicholls. He is currently vying for favouritism in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and there is no doubt that he is pretty smart. Having said that, he is not exactly thrown in on 11st 2lb against some seasoned handicappers.

Although I tipped him when he won impressively at Ascot last time, I’d be worried about those that he beat. Prince Siegfried had not yet been shaken off when he fell and he ran deplorably next time. The third and fourth have also been well beaten so I don’t think we should rushing to take 7-1 in a race like this.

Having mapped out this race for Irving, you get the feeling that Nicholls was taken slightly by surprise when Irish Saint romped home at Ascot in the heavy ground. It is true that he expected some improvement but he won so easily that the trainer is almost obliged to run him here under a 5lb penalty. The handicapper has stuck him up 12lbs for winning that race so he is officially 7lbs better off here.

The doubts are whether he will be so effective over this shorter trip and on potentially better ground. I’d also wonder whether he will get such a free run here as they tend to go like a bat out of hell in this race and we’ve seen him struggle in similar contests. If the field cuts up and the going rides heavy, then Irish Saint would be a logical choice.

I was really impressed by Flaxen Flare’s run in the Boylesports hurdle at Leopardstown last week. I had gone through that race inside out and come to the conclusion that he was just too high in the handicap but he ran a blinder to finish second to Gilgamboa. The vibes are that the winner will miss this and head to Cheltenham but I have no idea whether Flaxen Flare will have a crack at this race.

Cheltenian has been through the wars since winning the Cheltenham bumper in 2011 and it’s hard to fancy him on the back of an easy win in an egg-and-spoon race at Uttoxeter. He did hit a few hurdles there and this will be a different kettle of fish if we get a big field.

With several trainers holding multiple entries, the sensible policy at the moment is to sit tight and wait for the next acceptance stage. The weights could go up and change the complexion of the race completely. Watch this space!

Le Rocher value at 12-1 for Triumph Hurdle

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The weekend trials at Cheltenham and Doncaster did not exactly go to plan. I was looking for a big run from Rocky Creek in the Argento Chase but he went out very tamely when pressed by The Giant Bolster. Connections are apparently considering The Grand National instead of the Gold Cup after that display but I won’t be rushing to back him.

The biggest talking point of the weekend was the defeat of Big Buck’s in the Cleeve Hurdle. After a layoff of 420 days, it was surprising that Sam Twiston-Davies elected to have the horse so prominent from the start. Paul Nicholls has said that he told his jockey to be positive but most observers felt that he was in front far too early. Having said that, it was an encouraging run and he looks the one to beat in the World Hurdle.

The runner that impressed me most was the performance put up by Le Rocher in the Triumph Hurdle trial. There has hardly been a performance of note from the four-year-olds this season but Le Rocher looks the pick of the bunch on this evidence.

Vicenzo Mio was the first of several beaten favourites for the Nicholls team on the day but Le Rocher was backing up a Grade 1 win at Chepstow. Most impressively, he stretched a two and a half-length winning margin over Kentucky Hayden at the Welsh track to ten lengths here. Trainer Nick Williams has no doubt that the horse is capable of winning at the festival and I’m pretty confident that he will persuade the owners to go for the big one.

The going was very testing on Saturday so it would obviously be helpful if the going is soft in March but he also has form on a better surface in France. Ladbrokes have gone out on a limb by sticking to 12-1 and I feel that price cannot last long. He is around 8-1 generally and that is a far more realistic price.

Goodwood Mirage hardly lifted his feet over the last two hurdles when scraping home on his debut and he was little better here. I would imagine he would be heavily schooled and then given a confidence-booster before a trip to Aintree rather than Cheltenham. I cannot see him handling the hustle and bustle of a Triumph Hurdle.

Le Rocher (each-way) at 12-1 Ladbrokes

Cheltenham Saturday Preview

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Rocky Creek’s task has been made easier on Saturday by the withdrawal of both Triolo D’Alene and Theatre Guide. I had my suspicions that Nicky Henderson would be reluctant to risk his Grand National hope on soft ground around here so our 5-2 bet is now in to 6-4. It’s still going to be a decent test for Rocky Creek but he should be up to the task.

The media love to chuck around phrases like “Super Saturday” and apparently that is what we are in for this weekend. It is probably more reasonable to describe it as Trial’s day with some serious Cheltenham hopes in action at both Cheltenham and Doncaster.

Paul Nicholls has runners all over the place, headed by Big Buck’s In the Cleeve Hurdle. The bookies have pushed the four-time World Hurdle winner out to even money to overcome his lengthy absence. The vibes have been good and hopefully he can extend his winning sequence to 19 but there is bound to be some anxiety in the Nicholls camp.

A better betting proposition is Double Ross in the handicap at 1.50. Nigel Twiston-Davies is not shy about his horses and I detect plenty of confidence in this one on Saturday. He laughed off a 7lbs increase last time to beat Cedre Bleu on a miserable wet day and is up another 8lbs here. Cedre Bleu has since finished second at Ascot after looking likely to win jumping the last. He seems a bit of a monkey to me and I don’t think he will turn the form around on the revised terms.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Nicholls chalk up five or six winners on Saturday. Vicenzo Mio won by 17 lengths at Kempton and could become a leading contender for the Triumph if he wins the opener. I’m not too sure what he beat that day but the Triumph market is strangely subdued for this late in January and needs a shot in the arm.

I followed Goodwood Mirage on the flat last season and he always looked like he would be better as a four-year-old. He was snapped up for a small fortune to go hurdling and won despite failing to jump the last two on his debut. It was quite an achievement to get up and win having stopped to a virtual standstill. If Jonjo has managed to teach him to hurdle fluently he will be a danger.

Nicholls also has a squeak with Dark Lover in the novices handicap chase. He looked set to win at Newbury recently but didn’t quite find the acceleration needed. Cheltenham brings out the best in him but I’m put off by his weight of 11st 10lb.

David Pipe has suffered a couple of setbacks with incredibly bad runs from Dynaste (King George) and The Liquidator (Tolworth). He will be hoping that Red Sherlock does not fluff his lines tomorrow when he goes for win number 6. I have a feeling that he may have to play second fiddle to the Irish raider Rathvinden who was not done with when falling at Warwick. The race was won by Deputy Dan and that’s pretty smart form.

1.50 Double Ross at 7-2 William Hill

2.25 Rocky Creek at 5-2 ante-post

3.00 Rathvinden at 9-4 Totesport, Betfred

Sky Bet Chase Preview

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The combination of Paul Nicholls and Harry Derham teamed up to provide us with a nice winner in Saphir Du Rheu two weeks ago and could be worth following at Doncaster on Saturday. Derham is a very capable rider and claims a useful 5lbs off the Nicholls runner in the featured Sky Bet Chase.

Unioniste is a typical French import in that he jumped like an old hand from the moment he joined Nicholls. He landed a significant gamble for the stable when he won the December Gold Cup in desperate ground in 2012 with Derham riding a confident race. The going is currently described as soft but there is plenty of rain around and conditions are bound to be testing.

Unioniste made a satisfactory start to his season when a fair third at Wetherby, especially as many of the Nicholls horses were in need of their first run. He then won at Aintree where his jumping improved when given a clear sight of his fences. He was then pitched in at the deep end in the Lexus Chase and ran well before being outpaced as the runners headed for home.

That defeat suggests that a Gold Cup entry is rather ambitious but he is a smart chaser in this grade and this does not look a particularly strong field. Roberto Goldback has become very frustrating since winning well on his first start for Henderson and the Grand National winner Aurora’s Encore will surely do well to get close to Unioniste in receipt of just 2lbs after Derham’s claim.

The two horses that catch my eye as possible dangers are Donald McCain’s Kruzhlinin and Keith Reveley’s Night In Milan. Both won well last time and appear fairly treated by the handicapper. Kruzhlinin has won twice at Kelso and has gone up just 6lbs for his latest triumph. I just prefer him as an each-way alternative because he will probably handle the ground better than Night In Milan.

I was not convinced that Night In Milan’s race here was the greatest handicap of the season, although Mart Lane came out and won next time. The handicapper has given him a hefty 10lbs hike for that, a win achieved in first time blinkers. That means that Night In Milan meets him on the same terms as when thrashing him here previously.

Gullinbursti is tough and consistent but I can’t help thinking is too close to Unioniste in the handicap. He will probably run his usual game race but may struggle for a turn of foot in the closing stages. Time For Rupert was fifth in the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup but has only been on the track twice since.

Unioniste at 5-1 BetVictor

Kruzhlinin at 9-1 BetVictor