Tag: Paul Nicholls

Racing Preview 23rd November

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The eight runners have stood their ground for the Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday and it promises to be a cracker. There has been virtually no change in the market other than for Bobs Worth to ease out to a top price of 11-4.

Earlier in the week I recommended Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste against the favourite. All three are having their first outing of the new season so it is difficult to be too confident. The Gold Cup market is certainly in for a shake up on Saturday night.

Lie Forrit’s price in the Fixed Brush Hurdle has tumbled from 14-1 to 9-1 and I’m hopeful of a good run. It’s a tricky race with Gullinbursti reverting to hurdles after winning by 27 lengths over fences and a number of other fancied runners.

Far West was beaten by Melodic Rendezvous on his comeback race a couple of weeks ago but should strip fitter at Haydock tomorrow. He holds Rolling Star on their previous clash in the Triumph Hurdle and should give Nick Scholfield another high-profile winner in his new roles as stable number 2 jockey to Paul Nicholls.

Home Run was a 40-1 shot when triggering a four-timer for David Pipe last Sunday and turns out again quickly off bottom weight. Kieron Edgar again claims 7lbs off his back and he looks weighted to go close in a competitive race.

Ascot’s card has cut up badly and there are only seven runners in total for the two feature races. Whether this is the timing of the meeting I am not sure but I would have thought the sponsors will be less than pleased.

With betting opportunities somewhat limited, I’m going to keep faith with another Nicholls runner in Zarkandar for the Coral Hurdle. Annie Power is coming over from Ireland with a huge reputation but she’s never met anything of Zarkandar’s class and 7-4 looks too good to refuse.

Far West 12.45 Haydock 5-4 Bet365

Home Run 1.50 Haydock 6-1 BetVictor

Lie Forrit 2.25 Haydock *14-1 Ante-post

Silviniaco Conti 3.00 Haydock *5-2 Ante-post

Dynaste 3.00 Haydock *7-1 Ante-post

Zarkandar 2.40 Ascot 7-4 Coral

Haydock Fixed Brush Hurdle Preview

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As well as a recognised Gold Cup Trial in the Betfair Chase, Haydock’s Saturday card also features the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle. This race has been won by some very useful sorts in its 8-year history, notably Halcon Genelardais, Grands Crus and Dynaste.

The last two of those were trained by the in-form David Pipe who saddled a four-timer at Cheltenham on Sunday paying over 5,000-1. His representative this year is a full-brother to Grands Crus in the useful Gevrey Chambertin.

The grey was heavily backed to win the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival in March but was never travelling and was eventually pulled up. He reappeared at Aintree but again weakened quickly in the home straight in the race won by At Fishers Cross. It may well be that he can bounce back to form here but it doesn’t look a risk worth taking at 7-1.

Paul Nicholls had to endure a frustrating weekend at Cheltenham last week with only one winner to show for his troubles. He looked sure to collect with Sametegal in the Greatwood Hurdle and again when Salubrious and Southfield Theatre battled out the finish of the staying handicap hurdle. Both were passed late on but the latter lost nothing in defeat and could turn out again here off the same mark. He travelled well throughout the race and makes plenty of appeal at the current prices.

Another I like here is Lucinda Russell’s Lie Forrit who returned to something like his best at Wetherby recently. He was a decent staying hurdler back in 2009 and won off a mark a few pounds higher than he is set to race off on Saturday. He made the running at Wetherby and, not surprisingly for a horse that had been over fences, he ballooned a couple of the early flights. He warmed to his task as the race went on and should run well again this weekend.

Alan King likes to get one ready for this and it would be no surprise to see Two Rockers run well whilst Gullinbursti is tough and comes from another in-form yard, that of Emma Lavelle. Trustan Times ran well last time but has a lot of weight to carry and Ely Brown is useful but would probably like it softer.

Southfield Theatre (each-way) 11-1 888Sport

Lie Forrit (each-way) 14-1 William Hill, Stan James

Betfair Chase Preview

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Cheltenham’s Open meeting ended in frustration with Sametegal just touched off in the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday. That was a terrific run under a big weight and he will surely pick up a decent prize before too long.

If that meeting has blown away the cobwebs for National Hunt fans, they can now look forward to the return of the Gold Cup winner in Haydock’s Betfair Chase on Saturday. This race has been dominated by Paul Nicholls, largely with the help of a certain Kauto Star but also with Silviniaco Conti winning last year.

Not everyone was convinced by Silviniaco Conti, even though he hardly put a foot wrong on his way through to the festival. His unfortunate tumble at the third last left a load of unanswered questions and we could get some answers this weekend. It certainly appeared as though he was travelling as well as anything at the time but it was too far out to make a confident judgement. Nicholls admitted to being gutted whilst Ruby Walsh was his usual unflappable self and refused to be drawn on whether or not he’d have won.

With Walsh now enjoying a rich harvest for Willie Mullins in Ireland and Daryl Jacob riding at Ascot, it falls to Noel Fehily to partner the gelding on Saturday. The trainer has stressed that it is only logical that Jacob rides Zarkandar and Al Ferof and points out that Fehily has ridden the horse to victory earlier in his career.

Bobs Worth only appeared twice last season, winning the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. For those of us who are old enough to remember, it revives memories of Henderson’s training of See You Then prior to his Champion Hurdle victories. We won’t be seeing much more of Bobs Worth this season but it seems safe to assume he will be fit enough.

Looking beyond the big two, you have to respect Dynaste after David Pipe’s Sunday four-timer. His horses seemed to keep finding extra, reminiscent of Pipe senior in his glory days. This is a cracking race as I see Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste as the two horses most likely to give Bobs Worth a run for his money at Cheltenham in March.

Tidal Bay is an intriguing runner after his fine win over hurdles at Wetherby but will need everything to go right to win this. Long Run is best watched after his poor run first time out whilst I am still not convinced that Cue Card will stay this trip. I think 11-4 is a fair price for Silviniaco Conti and 7-1 is too big for Dynaste with Pipe in flying form so I’ll take those two against the field.

Silviniaco Conti 11-4 BetVictor

Dynaste 7-1 Coral

Greatwood Hurdle Preview

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The second big prize of the Open meeting at Cheltenham this weekend is the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday. The favourite is a horse that was a rare failure for the Nicky Henderson stable last season who failed to go on after finishing runner-up behind Olofi in this race.

Cash and Go revives painful memories as I had backed him at Ascot for the Ladbroke Hurdle on the strength of his performance in the Greatwood. Barry Geraghty is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished jump jockeys around but I think even he would admit that he got it all wrong on that occasion. He took a pull early on and practically left his horse blinded towards the rear of the 21-runner field. I’m sure that he was guessing at his hurdles and it was no surprise when Geraghty slid out of the side door after a mistake at the fourth.

The fact that he is favourite this year owes nothing to his subsequent efforts so I can only presume that he has been showing a lot more at home. Pine Creek won the William Hill Hurdle at Ascot last time out and certainly cruised into the race in good style. He did not win quite so easily as seemed likely and I’m not convinced that it was the greatest race. Neither of the front two makes any appeal at odds of around 6-1.

I have much more time for Sametegal at nearly twice the price, trained by Paul Nicholls. On the face of it he has a tough task under 11st 7lb having beaten Bayan by only a neck here last month. However, he had previous winner Handazan stone cold with half a mile to go and would have been more impressive with a stronger pace. He was a respectable third in the Triumph Hurdle and should run well.

My second selection is Kashmir Peak. He was beaten a mile in the Triumph but that was as a result of an early mistake and he is better judged on two meetings with Sametegal last season. He beat that rival by a length at Doncaster and was set to do so again at Musselburgh before unseating his rider four out. His four races on the flat have resulted in three placed efforts including a fine head second to Thomas Hobson at Newbury last month. If he transfers that improvement to hurdles he must have a good each-way chance.

I am also adding a second long-shot to my Paddy Power Gold Cup selection in the form of Astracad. Nigel Twiston-Davies has stated that he will run as long as the ground doesn’t turn soft and he also looks generously priced at 33-1.

Paddy Power Gold Cup Astracad (each-way) 33-1 888Sport

Greatwood Hurdle Kashmir Peak 12-1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor

Greatwood Hurdle Sametegal 10-1 Coral, Bet365

 

Racing Preview 9th November

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Clearly I was tempting fate by hoping for a favourable draw for my ante-post selections in the November Handicap! Communicator has been drawn in stall 17 with Conduct even further out in stall 21. A quick delve into the history books reveals that a high draw isn’t necessarily fatal with nine of the past eleven winners being drawn in double-figure stalls. Even so, my confidence has certainly taken a knock for tomorrow’s race. The gamble of the race is a horse called Rhombus. I can’t see it winning myself but good luck to whoever is behind the midweek plunge.

Sprint handicaps at the end of the season are notoriously difficult but Eton Rifles arrives at Doncaster fresher than most. He won the Wentworth Stakes last year and bids for a repeat on his favoured soft ground. He was just denied by Steps in a handicap at Ascot last month after looking the likely winner with a furlong to travel. He stays seven furlongs so should certainly be staying on at the finish. I take him at 6-1 to get the better of the consistent Highland Colori and Jack Dexter.

The jumping season is getting into top gear now and grabbed the spotlight with McCoy’s 4000th winner this week. The action moves on to Wincanton tomorrow and Paul Nicholls introduces two horses that I’ve very much been looking forward to seeing.

Far West went into the Triumph Hurdle as one of the favourites but was left trailing by Our Conor’s extraordinary performance. Time will tell whether Our Conor is exceptional or whether it was a weak renewal of the juvenile championship. The Paul Nicholls-trained four-year-old looked a bit short of a change of gear at times last season and will presumably be up with the pace tomorrow. Melodic Rendezvous is the obvious danger but he is returning after suffering an injury that ruled him out of Cheltenham and Aintree and may just be a bit ring rusty.

My nap of the day is stable companion Wonderful Charm who looks a possible RSA Chase prospect. Nicholls thought enough of the gelding to run him in the World Hurdle last March but he has always had chasing in mind. He didn’t put a foot wrong on his debut and can chalk up a second victory at the expense of Alan King’s Meister Eckhart.

(Doncaster) 2.25 Eton Rifles 6-1 Bet Victor

(Wincanton) 2.05 Far West 7-2 Ladbrokes

(Wincanton) 3.15 Wonderful Charm 7-4 William Hill

Grand National Meeting Day 1 Preview

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In theory, picking winners at Aintree is a lot easier than picking winners at Cheltenham. The fields tend to be smaller and the Cheltenham festival form ought to stand up. Of course it is not always that simple but it is a reasonable place to start.

The opening race of the meeting Liverpool’s version of the Triumph Hurdle. There is no Our Conor on show here but disappointing favourite Rolling Star bids to redeem his reputation. Nicky Henderson’s French import was sent off 5-2 favourite for the Triumph but never really looked like justifying the plunge. Even allowing for the exceptional winner, it was surprising that he could do no better than sixth place. On his previous outing he had beaten the Paul Nicholls-trained Irish Saint by two and a quarter lengths and that horse has been saved for this meeting. Nicholls had been considering going for a 2 ½ mile novice event with him and I just wonder whether he will have enough pace for Aintree’s flat two miles. although there is a question mark about whether he will be fast enough over 2 miles here. Flaxen Flare won the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle decisively but had been well beaten on his two previous starts.

Silviniaco Conti looks like nap material in the Betfred Bowl (2.30). He looked certain to be involved in the finish of the Gold Cup before he fell at the third last and he also has winning form at Aintree. Nicholls had been quite bullish about his prospects before the race and had always emphasised that he would come on a great deal for his victory at Newbury. Had he stood up, I’m sure he would have finished ahead of The Giant Bolster and Cape Tribulation at the festival. Mouse Morris wanted to run First Lieutenant in the Gold Cup and the horse was left flat footed by Cue Card in the Ryanair. He may again have to settle for second place.

The Aintree Hurdle (3.05) looks like being a classic but I’m staying loyal to Champion Hurdle form with Countrywide Flame. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner ran a fine third at the festival and holds Zarkandar on that form. Nicholls is applying blinkers to the latter whilst Grandouet is difficult to weigh up after an early fall in the Champion. I am surprised that The New One is the ante-post favourite and am yet to be convinced that he is a Champion hurdler. I still think that anything over 4-1 is a steal for Countrywide Flame.

I don’t usually bet on Hunter Chase races and I’ll be giving The Foxhunters Chase (3.40) a swerve. Nicky Henderson has chances in the last three races with Kid Cassidy (4.15), Captain Conan (4.50) and Ericht (5.25). Kid Cassidy finished second to Alderwood in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham but has to carry top weight here. I haven’t previously been a fan of Captain Conan but I thought he ran a good race behind Benefficient whilst Ericht finished fifth in a huge field in the Coral Hurdle. It could be worth putting them together with Rolling Star in the hope that the Henderson team has a field day. Stranger things have happened!

Silviniaco Conti (Nap) Even money with Totesport
Countrywide Flame (n.b.) 9-2 with Paddy Power

Henderson Super Yankee:
Rolling Star 5-2 with Bet Victor
Kid Cassidy 13-2 with Totesport
Captain Conan 15-8 with William Hill
Ericht 14-1 with Bet365