Frys.com Preview – PGA Tour

No sooner has the bunker dust from the FedEx Cup Playoffs and Ryder Cup settled, than the first tournament of the new PGA Tour season is thrust upon us.   The Frys.com open is held in the Napa Valley, California. The field features an interesting mix of seasoned Americans and Web.com Tour graduates all looking to make a fast start in the FedEx Cup.

While the field is not the strongest, there will be plenty of interest in how the Rookies get on. It’s also worth checking to see if anyone can make a Jimmy Walker-esque start to the season.   Notables in the field include Ryder Cup players Lee Westwood, Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar, Hunter Mahan; champion cancer survivor Jarrod Lyle; and youngsters Chesson Hadley, and Carlos Ortiz.

It’s not fair to suggest the field is weak. That simply does not happen on the PGA Tour. However, all things considered, this a great opportunity for players to grab some cheap points (500 on offer for the winner).

This week’s Frys.com tournament is being held at the Silverado Resort, unused on the PGA TOUR since 1980. The par-72 North Course will play 7,203 yards; it is a favourite of commentator Johnny Miller. Not only did he win two titles here, he also helped redesign it.

Players have the winning score somewhere between 10 and 12 under. Lee Westwood saying “there’s a decent bit of rough and the greens are very quick and severe in places. … I think it’s a difficult test.”

Top Picks

Picking a winner on the PGA Tour is never easy. Here’s a look at some of the players who I expect to be there or thereabouts come Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama – $21 – Unibet

Cameron Tringale – $26 – Unibet

Brooks Koepka – $15 – Totesport

Matt Kuchar – $17 – Sportsbet

Sang-Moon Bae – $26 – Bet365

If I had to stick my neck out and pick a Frys.com winner, I would go for Sang-Moon Bae. Good odds; had a win in 2013, and six top 25’s last year.

 

The Tour Championship and PGA Tour Review

The culmination to the PGA Tour season is always a confusing affair. With all the talk about bubbles and projected standings it can get a little tricky working out whether your favourite player has the opportunity to win the coveted FedEx Cup, not to mention if they’ll even make it through to the next event.

Luckily, with Billy Horschel’s win in the season ending Tour Championship we don’t need to worry anymore. Instead we can look forward to the passion and prestige of the Ryder Cup, set to begin at Gleneagles on the 23rd of September.

But before we start predicting whether the USA can prevent a Europe three peat, let’s take a look at the Tour Championship and review the 2013-14 PGA Tour season. 

The Tour Championship 

Held at Eastlake in Georgia the final event of the season is played by only the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings and comes with an excellent purse of $8 million. (The FedEx Cup too comes with a $10 million bonus.)

The Eastlake course was the home of the legendary golfer Bobby Jones, and while none of the current field have reached his lofty heights (seven majors), two players playing pretty great golf of late were locked in a gripping final round battle.

Coming in to the final event at number 2 and number 4 in the FedEx Cup standings, Billy Horschel and Rory McIlroy could both get their hands on the FedEx Cup with a win. Paired together for the final day the two were expected to buck the trend of 4th round conservatism. However, with only Jim Furyk (and he hasn’t had a win since 2010) offering any real challenge the two could play match play of sorts – winner takes all. Rory’s challenged was effectively over on the sixth when he found water and when Horschel signed for a 12th consecutive round in the 60’s the double was his.

It was, on reflection, a wonderful achievement from a guy who started the playoffs in 69th position and before today was best known for being a bit of a hot head. Today’s win makes him a good pick for next year’s events and a sleeper for the majors.

The PGA Tour Season

It’s admittedly hard to think back to October 2013 when the season started, not because of too many gold rum and cokes, simply because of the sheer number of tournaments and the musical chair winner’s circle that the PGA Tour entails. Having said that there were some players and some moments that stood out.

Jimmy Walker dominated the early stages thanks to thee wins (at the Frys.com Open, the Sony Open, and the AT&T at Pebble Beach) and sat in pole position for the post-season events. Bubba Watson won twice including his second Masters title. Lots of Aussies enjoyed wins (Adam Scott, John Senden, Matt Jones, Jason Day, Steven Bowditch, Geoff Ogilvy, and as a nation they won the World Cup of Golf). Tiger spent most of season on the operating title, and Rory dominated every golf story in the latter part of the season, both for his golf and for the abrupt halt to his engagement.

Outside of the golf, Dustin Johnson had his ‘issues’. Adam Scott got married in secret and broke the hearts of a host of female fans. McIlroy’s dad, Gerry, got in on the action too by netting a huge payout from a ten-year-old bet, predicting his son would win an Open Championship.

Looking ahead to 2014-15 here are a few predictions:

  • Tiger won’t win a major. Rickie Fowler will.
  • Anthony Kim (remember him) will return to the game. But will be terrible.
  • More pros will throw away their anchored putters in preparation for the 2016 ban.

US PGA Championship Preview

The US PGA Championship is not only the last major of the season; it is also last in terms of importance. A major is a major and that’s not to decry any golfer who has won it in the past. I’m sure that Lee Westwood or Luke Donald would happily put their name to it right now! The Masters has its own special brand of golf on the manicured greens with the flowery backdrop, the British Open is the oldest and best and the Americans are entitled to their own US Open…but the PGA?

If I were to ask anyone but a complete golfing anorak who won the PGA in 2002 and 2009 I very much doubt many of you would know? The answers are Rich Beem and YE Yang. Enough said.

Of course, such scepticism carries little weight with the bookmakers who have all the usual suspects priced up at the top of the market. Tiger Woods is entrenched in his role as automatic favourite and is even shorter after strolling around Firestone at the weekend. Phil Mickelson is second favourite after scooping the Scottish and British Opens on a profitable little stopover in the UK. By the way, his tax bill was a cool £900,000 for that weekend alone!

I have already previewed the event in some depth at golfbettingtip.com and have selected five against the field. With the bookies paying ¼ the odds down to sixth place and Woods very short at 4-1 there could still be some each-way value in the long shots.

The last winner at this year’s venue of Oak Hill was Shaun Micheel in 2003. He was 169th in the rankings at the time. That victory elevated him into the top 50 but where is he ten years on? Well, think of a number and double it…337! With that in mind, I’m going to have a bit of fun with some long shots and hope that one of them can sneak into the frame.

First up is last year’ Open champion Ernie Els. He didn’t do too badly defending his title but 26th place never really raised any hopes of victory. The reason he is worth a flutter here is that he finished 5th at Oak Hill in 2003 so he knows better than most what to expect this week. He is surely overpriced at 90-1.

My second choice is AT & T winner Bill Haas. He played well at Firestone last week to finish tied for seventh place. His form is slightly erratic with a mixture of top ten finishes and missed cuts but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see his name on the leaderboard at some stage.

My third selection is less of a long shot having put together a sequence of tied 2nd, tied 6th (Open) and tied 4th. Zach Johnson had his moments at Muirfield and is clearly in fine form. He is playing like one of the top six golfers in the world and 55-1 is surely on the generous side.

Finally, Australian Jason Day has yet to win this year but has hauled in $2.7million! Nice work if you can get it! At the Masters he was trying some kind of weird brain gadget but I’m not sure what his state of mind is at the moment. If he’s tuned it into the most valuable tournaments of the year he’s not doing a bad job.

Ernie Els 90-1 Paddy Power, 112-1 Betfair
Bill Haas 66-1 Paddy Power
Zach Johnson 55-1 Youwin
Jason Day 50-1 Paddy Power, 55-1 Betfair