Tag: premier league betting

Liverpool vs. Burnley: Could Joey Barton be the Difference?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Burnley vs. Liverpool produced an early Premier League upset that few people saw coming back in August, but can Sean Dyche’s men put in a repeat performance on March 12?

Since that fateful afternoon back in August, it’s fair to say the two teams have had contrasting fortunes. While an early setback for Liverpool might have had some fans fearing the worst, 4th place after 27 games have made a place in the next Champions League look like a strong possibility. For Burnley, 14 losses and just nine wins have left them battling for mid-table mediocrity in 12th place after 27 games.

Naturally, if you’re a Burnley fan, 12th place in the Premier League ahead of teams such as Watford, Middlesbrough and defending champions Leicester City isn’t such a bad thing. However, the current state of affairs might not look so positive when you’ve got to travel to Anfield for another crack at Liverpool.

The Facts Favour Liverpool

Indeed, with Jurgen Klopp seemingly over the tactical blunders that plagued the early part of Liverpool’s season, it looks as Burnley would have to produce something special to clinch another 2-0 win. Of course, the power of a previous win can’t be underestimated, especially when you consider Liverpool’s recent run hasn’t exactly been spectacular. Three losses, a draw and two wins in their last six certainly doesn’t smack of a team currently pushing Tottenham for second place in the league.

However, even with all the confidence in the world, Burnley can’t deny the facts. In 115 showdowns, Liverpool has come away with at least a point on 78 occasions, while Burnley has managed just 37 wins. Add to that, the fact The Clarets have only won one in their last six and it’s easy to see why Sun Bets has the home side as 2/9 favourites.

Of course, stats don’t mean anything when the tackles start to fly and Burnley will be hoping a dose of tough Northern resolve will see them through the match. In fact, according to manager Dyche, Joey Barton could be the man to help dish out some of the physicality his side may need to get a result on Sunday.

Joey Barton and the Jekyll and Hyde Effect

Prior to the match, Barton was expected to go before an FA disciplinary hearing. However, with the case postponed, Barton is eligible for selection and could prove decisive one way or another. Looking on the positive side of things, Barton will be one of the most experienced players on the pitch at 34-years-old. In games where a strong presence is needed to help overcome a skill deficit, players like Barton can often come into their own.

The counter argument to this is Barton’s discipline or, more accurately, lack of it against Liverpool. The lifelong Everton fan has never been welcomed to Anfield with open arms and it’s a dynamic that seems to bring out the beast in him. Red cards against Liverpool when he was with Manchester City and Newcastle United suggest he’s not the best at controlling his emotions at Anfield.

When you add to this the potential needle he may receive during the game because of his impending FA hearing, it looks as though Barton’s presence could hinder rather than help Burnley. Now, if you’re a neutral and simply looking for the best bets, then Barton could make things interesting. A quick look through BetVictor’s Premier League bets has Barton to receive the first card of the game at 9/1.

Along the same line, bet365 is offering an Asian betting line on the number of cards awarded in the game. Over 3.5 is currently 1.875 while the under is 1.925. Given what we know about Barton, the over on this bet looks as though it could offer some value if he does play.

If Cards Aren’t an Issue then a Liverpool Win is the Way to Go

But, if Barton doesn’t get the nod, then a safer option would be to focus on the ways Liverpool are going to win. Yes, Burnley has a shot at getting a result and 5/1 on the draw with Sun Bets isn’t a bad price.

However, if you really want the best chance of a return on Sunday, Sadio Mane to score first at 7/2 isn’t a bad shout with Roberto Firmino an injury doubt. Failing that, Liverpool halftime/fulltime (both at Sun Bets) isn’t a bad price.

As Premier League games go, this one looks as though it won’t produce too much unexpected drama, unless Barton is thrown into the mix. If this happens, get your red card bets ready and watch out for fireworks.

Tottenham v Everton Preview: Hedge Your Bets on this One

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“We’ve had good results against really good teams and that gives everyone the confidence to get a good result on Sunday.” That’s what Everton manager Ronald Koeman recently told the club’s official website when asked about their impending clash with second-place Tottenham.

Reviewing the Toffees’ season-to-date, a season that’s seen them beat Manchester City, Arsenal and pick up a point against Manchester United, Koeman is confident his players have the skills to win on March 5. However, as buoyed by these results as Koeman may be, Mark Lawrenson can’t see Everton maintaining their current streak of nine games unbeaten.

Despite acknowledging the quality of the side, Tottenham’s defensive abilities and their desire to bounce back from a disappointing Europa League exit will be enough to tip the balance according to Lawro.

“Generally Spurs are very good defensively and, at the other end, they just ripped the Potters apart last week – Harry Kane’s hat-trick was top drawer. I know Everton are nine games unbeaten in the league, but going to White Hart Lane and continuing that run is a huge ask,” Lawrenson told BBC sport.

The Battle Between the Physical and the Mental

Ahead of the match, it seems as though one of two factors could decide this game. On the one hand, those in favour of Tottenham can look towards the team’s superior physical skills. With Harry Kane currently banging in goals for fun and leading the Premier League’s top scorer race, there’s no doubt Everton will be under pressure from the off. In fact, when you factor in the loss of defensive midfielder Muhamed Besic due to an injury, Everton may be forced into their shell in a bid to stop Kane from running riot.

On the other hand, Everton supporters could feasibly claim that their players will have the psychological edge heading into the match. As Koeman has pointed out, big results from big games this season bodes well for the upcoming fixture. Add to that the fact Everton picked up a point against Spurs the last time they met on top of a nine-run win streak and supporters have every right to be confident. There’s no doubt the absence of Besic and Yannick Bolasie will hurt, but maybe the team’s mindset can overcome this hurdle.

Indeed, with Tottenham’s Toby Alderweireld, Jan Vertonghen, Danny Rose and Erik Lamela all looking unlikely, the time may be right for Everton to do a bit better than a point. If the boys in blue can ride this wave of confidence, 9/2 on a win with Sun Bets looks to be a strong price. On the flip side, those with the confidence that physical skills will overcome mental agility can find odds of 4/6 on Tottenham at Coral.

Double Your Bets for a Chance to Win Twice

For those looking to sniff out a bargain, Paddy Power’s weekend “2 Up” offer may be worth taking. If Spurs can bag a couple of quick goals, you’ll be paid out instantly at 8/13 regardless of the end result. Given that we could easily see Everton fight back and earn a point as they did last time out, this could be a great way to hedge your bets. By combining Paddy Power’s offer with Coral’s 3/1 on the draw you to pick up two wins on what looks to be a highly likely outcome.

With both teams playing well and positives on both sides, Tottenham v Everton looks set to be an entertaining but close game. Current league standings would suggest the home side will just edge it. However, if you’re willing to double your bets and use some online offers, the draw could be the wisest move you’ll make this weekend.

Can United Surge into the Top Four?

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Manchester United certainly seem to be picking up momentum. Their recent unbeaten run seems to prove that. While they could have played better in the EFL Cup final on Sunday, a trophy will certainly have boosted confidence at Old Trafford. Roy Keane has recently commented on how he feels United haven’t made progress from last season. This is clearly wrong and is probably biased based on his bitter departure from the club.

United look well placed to reach the top four. Liverpool is looking like a team low in confidence. Their 3-1 loss at Leicester opens the door for United to move above them. United are only 2pts behind Arsenal. Apart from Chelsea, it is clear that United are playing the best football in the league at the moment.

Bournemouth are in Trouble

United host Bournemouth on Saturday in what looks like an easy three points for the Reds. Eddie Howe has got a big job on his hands to try to arrest the slide that his team have suffered in recent weeks. Bournemouth is now only 4pts above the drop zone. Recent good results for the bottom clubs have closed the gap on them even more.

Bournemouth was very poor in their 6-3 thrashing at Everton. They are still awaiting their first win of 2017. The rot seemed to set in when they capitulated from a 3-0 lead at home to Arsenal to draw 3-3. That result came on the 3rd of January and they haven’t played well since.

These are clearly troubled times and Bournemouth badly needs to start winning soon. That is unlikely to happen as Jose Mourinho now has further trophies in his sight as well as getting into the top four. Ibrahimovic and Pogba are really starting to play well and United look like a really fluent team. It is going to take either a very good side or a very lucky side to beat United at the moment.

Finding the Best Value Bets

The basic fact is that United are highly likely to win this match. Bournemouth is woeful at the moment. The odds of 1-4 for a United victory from SkyBet don’t really fire the imagination. Neither does picking up a string of losing bets backing the draw or Bournemouth to cause an upset.

The value seems to be in finding alternate bets. BetFred is a best-priced 4-5 for United to be ahead at half time and full time. This is by far the best value of all the bets that are on offer. Jose Mourinho will expect and demand a reaction from their EFL Cup final win where United was mediocre for large periods of the game. That is likely to happen against Eddie Howes’ boys and expect United to start quickly and on the front foot.

Sunderland Simply Must Start Winning

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David Moyes is a man under pressure. Sunderland is rooted to the bottom of the Premier League with only thirteen games to go. The arrival of Moyes at the Stadium of Light was seen as a move that would bring solidity to Sunderland. The reality has been much different. A procession of near misses in recent seasons with regards to relegation has taken its toll.

Whether the blame is with Moyes or with the Sunderland board is unclear. It has been slightly surprising to see Moyes still in a job in February. The demand to stay in the Premier League has never been higher. A creditable goalless draw with Tottenham and a 4-0 thumping of Crystal Palace were deceiving.

Is Sunderland Good Enough?

This is a big question? They were humiliated at home to Southampton with most of their crowd leaving early. With several relegation candidates picking up points recently, Sunderland is clearly under pressure. If they don’t begin to pick up points soon, it is tough to see David Moyes surviving until the end of the season.

Sunderland travels to Everton in what appears to be a really challenging encounter. Everton is clearly the best team in the Premier League outside of the top six. Ronald Koeman has done a fantastic job of pulling them together. They work to a really solid system that suits them. What Sunderland need is a couple of easier fixtures. Goodison Park certainly isn’t on that list.

Can we Back Sunderland to win?

Sunderland is a best priced 13/2 with SkyBET but even at those odds, it is difficult to see them winning. Sunderland just looks so poor at the moment. Everton is currently 2/5 with William Hill and that is almost like buying money.

The Black Cats are still in the hunt for survival and are only two points adrift of the safety zone. It is this that has kept David Moyes in a job. If that gap increases to five points or more then we can expect the board to take action. Bet365 are a best priced 17/4 for the draw and that is a good bet too.

So the decision is whether to bet on the draw or the home win? The better option is the home win. Sunderland simply doesn’t appear to be capable of getting a result against a top seven side away from home. Their 0-0 draw with Tottenham was misleading. The look of despair on Moyes’ face during their display against Southampton said it all. That was the look of a man who knew his team are in trouble.

Liverpool vs. Tottenham: Is a Win Too Much to Expect?

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If Tottenham is going to pull off an upset and leapfrog Chelsea to win the Premier League this season, they’ll have to start by winning what’s certain to be a tough test at Anfield on February 11. Despite a gap of four points and three league places, Spurs aren’t necessarily the favourites heading into what will be a crunch match.

Now, before we run through the odds and see exactly where the bookmakers’ sympathies lay, there are two important facts to point out. The first is that Tottenham hasn’t won at Anfield since 2011. In the last eight games between Liverpool and Tottenham at Anfield, the former have won five and drawn three. To make things worse for the visitors, Anfield is the place they’ve lost the most frequently in the Premier League (15 losses from 24 games).

History Doesn’t Favour Spurs

For all intents and purposes, Spurs don’t seem to like travelling north to play Liverpool. In fact, manager Mauricio Pochettino doesn’t seem to like playing against Liverpool anywhere as he’s never beaten them with a Tottenham team. However, as bad as history has been to the London club, those that like to live in the moment will be buoyed by our second significant fact: Liverpool hasn’t won in the Premier League in 2017.

If we discount an FA win at Plymouth Argyle, Liverpool seems to have perfected the art of losing to “lesser teams” and drawing with top opposition. For example, the Reds went from a well-earned draw against Chelsea to losing 2-0 to Hull City. Aside from being a surprising turn of events, this run of results seems to suggest that Liverpool is inconsistent.

Naturally, if you’re going to win the Premier League, you have to be consistent; especially after Christmas. However, we’re not talking about the title race; we’re looking at Liverpool vs. Tottenham in isolation. Based on this recent run, the data would suggest that Liverpool will enter the game as favourites (from a historical standpoint), but the end result will be a draw. If you’re inclined to follow this logic, 23/10 on a draw with Sun Bets isn’t a bad price. However, for our money, Liverpool half-time and a draw full-time at 14/1 with Sky Bet is hard to ignore.

Confidence Will Help Liverpool, but Tottenham Remain a Threat

There’s no doubt Liverpool will start the match full of confidence. Even if we ignore history, Anfield is always a fortress and with the side desperate to give the home fans a win in 2017, they’ll no doubt come out all guns blazing. A single goal before half-time is more than possible, but with Tottenham showing a propensity to score, there’s every chance they’ll come back in the second half.

In fact, as goal hungry as Tottenham have been in recent weeks, Liverpool have also shown they’re no strangers to the back of the net. 52 goals in 24 Premier League matches is better than anyone (except Arsenal who also has 52 goals) and if the Reds can continue this form, we could be in for a high-scoring draw. 2-2 is currently 12/1 at Coral which, when you consider 3-3 is 50/1, doesn’t look to be a bad bet.

It Could be Too Close to Call

Why haven’t we mentioned the odds on a win?

Well, it should come as no secret that we’re pushing our chips towards a draw on this one. However, if you’re looking to back the historical stats, 6/5 is the price on a Liverpool win at Sun Bets. In contrast, if current form is more important, then 11/5 is the going rate at Coral. Either way, the odds makers have it close, which is why we’re hedging our bets on a stalemate.

Does that mean there won’t be goals and drama? Certainly not. However, if both teams play to their potential, then there should be very little to choose between them on this occasion.

Man United vs. Watford – Return of the Giant Slayers

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This Saturday sees Manchester United entertaining a resurgent Watford, and Walter Mazzari will be eager for a repeat of last week’s shock win against Arsenal at the Emirates. United are unbeaten in the league since October and are looking to preserve that run.

Man United

Coming off the back of 3 consecutive league draws, Sunday’s win away against Champions Leicester came as welcome relief for the United faithful. An impressive display from Mourinho’s men, if somewhat emphasised by Leicester’s complete lack of quality, sees them keep pace with the pack chasing 4th place. Currently sitting in 6th with 45 points, they are only 5 points behind Tottenham in second place; both Liverpool and Arsenal’s campaigns have fallen into disarray, and United now have a solid chance of claiming a Champions League spot next year. Their last Premier League loss was 4:0 against Chelsea in October, at a time when many were writing them off and declaring Mourinho to be past it. Since then, United have rallied under the Portuguese, quietly consolidating themselves into a position where they can mount a challenge on 4th place.

Watford

Watford had gone 7 league games without a win when they were dumped out of the FA Cup by League 1 Millwall. After that particularly poor performance, many were asking whether Watford would backslide into the expanding relegation fight. Their quality shone through against Arsenal, however, and they followed it up with a home win against Burnley. With 8 points in 4 games pushing them up to 10th, Watford is looking to be pretty much safe from the drop, bar a really shocking decline of form.

Head to Head

These two teams have played each other 3 times in recent years, United winning both games last season. This season, Watford have the opportunity to do the double against the Manchester giants, as the corresponding fixture at Vicarage Road in September saw Watford win 3:1, a game that brought as many plaudits down on Watford as harsh criticisms of United. Mourinho will be keen to avenge that result and score a victory against Mazzari, a man he once called “a hard working donkey” who would “never become a thoroughbred”. Mazzari will be eager to slay two giants in two weeks and get another one up on an old rival from Serie A.

Injuries

Marcos Rojo, Phill Jones and Timothy Fosu-Mensah are all in doubt for Saturday, and Wayne Rooney is currently suffering from an illness. For Watford, Costel Pantilimon, Christian Kabesele, Robert Pereya and Nordin Amrabat will all likely miss the game.

The Value

Despite Watford’s improving form and capacity for beating the top teams, I expect United to wear them down over 90 minutes. Dropping home points against Hull will be fresh in Mourinho’s mind and he won’t want to let it happen again here, and they will be all the warier after that defeat all those months ago. At 2/9 on Bet365, there is really very little value in backing a straight home win, but United to Win and BTTS/No at 2/1 might be worth a go.

Watford does have the potential to cause an upset, however, and backing them on a Double Chance at 5/2 with William Hill could be worth a pop.