Tag: premier league tips

Manchester City vs Chelsea: The Title Decider?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s certainly too early to call this weekends’ showdown between Manchester City and Chelsea a “title decider”. Despite this, we will still be able to gain some important indicators from this match as to who the likely champions will be. We have a lot more data to go on when it comes to predicting the champions than we had back in August. For example, Manchester United will clearly not be champions this season, and we don’t need to wait until it is mathematically certain to see why.

When Statistics Reveal the Answers

Quite often, statistics get to the very heart of the matter and reveal the truth. The league champions usually finish with a total of around 85pts. The points’ totals of City, Chelsea and Liverpool so far clearly indicate that this figure will be reached this season. United have 20pts from 13 games. Clearly, given their current level of performance, they will not amass 65pts from their remaining 25 matches. So what do the statistics reveal for the Manchester City vs Chelsea encounter?

Chelsea made a solid start to the season in August. They won all three of their league games. Looking back on these three games and how they played out revealed that all wasn’t well with the Chelsea system. All three of Chelsea’s opponents were relatively weak and this papered over the cracks. This led to a poor September where Chelsea only took one point from a possible nine. A home defeat to Liverpool and a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal highlighted the shortcomings in the Chelsea team.

The Trend is up

Analysing form in football betting usually means looking at trends. Chelsea had a total of 10pts from six matches after September. Since then they have taken maximum points from seven matches. This includes wins over Manchester United, Everton and Tottenham. Antonio Conte has turned things around very rapidly. They are becoming very difficult to score against and should they win at the Etihad this weekend, they will become serious title challengers and favourites.

The current trend is favouring Chelsea, and Manchester City’s recent form has been patchy. If we take away the great start to the season by City and the mediocre one by Chelsea then the difference in their recent form clearly gives the Blues a significant edge. Manchester City can be backed at 11/10 with Bet365.

Their recent home draws to Southampton, Everton and Middlesbrough seem to indicate that 11/10 is too short. Far too short when you consider that the visitors are possible champions elect. Stan James offers 13/5 on the draw with Betfred quoting 5/2 for a Chelsea win. Both teams may be happy with a point and so the value bet seems to indicate the draw at 13/5.

Manchester United vs West Ham: Two Bosses under Pressure

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Manchester United take on West Ham on Sunday in the Premier League. Both managers are under pressure and need a win. After the successes of last season, Slaven Bilic and the West Ham fans would not have expected to be just one place above the drop zone in November.

In fact, a defeat at Old Trafford on Sunday could see them in the bottom three. A large part of their current situation can be blamed on the move to the new stadium. Their results in the impressive Olympic Stadium have been patchy, to say the least.

Any team in the Premier League is going to struggle if they are continually getting mediocre results at home. West Ham played with such energy and passion last season that you tend to wonder where it has all gone wrong. Injuries to key players haven’t helped. Andy Carroll is still some way off being fully fit, and he has only played once all season. West Ham certainly misses his potent threat up front.

Misfiring Reds

The question needs to be asked if Manchester United’s title chances have already vanished this season. Some people argue that it’s too early to say that. Consider the facts. They trail Chelsea by 9pts, and they are behind three teams that are playing much better than them in Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. All of their big name acquisitions have been misfiring this season. Wayne Rooney has been well below his best.

These are four big reasons why the 9pt gap will likely grow larger rather than contract. You simply cannot underperform for half a season and expect to win the league. The big test for United is to finish in the top four. Jose Mourinho is certainly under pressure, but then again why shouldn’t he be?

United are Still No Better

We can argue about the merits of style but the league position and the stats don’t lie. United are no better off under Mourinho than they were under Moyes and Van Gaal. The bookies now have United at 25/1 for the title. Those odds are not too far short of bookmaker spiel for “no chance”.

As for their game with the Hammers on Sunday, they will start as favourites and rightly so. One negative point for United could be their Europa League tie against Feyenoord on Thursday. What will their energy levels be like against West Ham? Mourinho has openly stated that he is taking the Europa League very seriously this season.

He may need to if they miss out on the top four in the league. Winning the Europa League would then be United’s only chance of playing in the Champions League next season. You can get odds of 1-2 with Stan James for a Man United win. You can also get 7-2 with SkyBet for the draw and a tasty 15-2 with BetFred for a West Ham upset.

Best Bets Ahead of a Premier League Super Sunday

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

WE’VE finally got a real “Super Sunday” in the Premier League this weekend and the first match sees title favourites Manchester City host in-form Southampton at the Etihad.

Manchester City vs. Southampton

Pep Guardiola had a homecoming to forget after his former side Barcelona inflicted a 4-0 Champions League midweek defeat on City; this was the Spaniard’s heaviest loss in management, and in the middle of a difficult time at present he faces a tough challenge again at the weekend.

After a perfect 10 match winning start to the new season, City are just clinging on to top spot after four matches without a success, and they offer little value to win at just 1.55 with Coral.

Southampton’s season is a polar opposite to City’s; The Saints’ failed to win in their opening four matches, but they arrive in the blue half of Manchester flying without a loss in their last seven.

Claude Puel’s side are 7.00 to continue their winning form, and even though that does look very tempting on paper, six successive loses in this fixture is putting me off having a small wager on them.

Sergio Aguero was amazingly rested at the Camp Nou. The Argentinian looks certain to lead the line and he will be up against another in-form striker in Southampton’s Charlie Austin. With those two in excellent goalscoring form, I like both teams to score at 1.80 with BoyleSports for the sixth time in the last seven years in this fixture.

Chelsea vs. Manchester United

ALL eyes will be on the “special one” Jose Mourinho when he returns to Stamford Bridge for the first time since being sacked last season, with his new Manchester United to take on Chelsea.

I was staggered when I looked at the prices for this and saw that Chelsea were just 2.10 for the win. Why?

The Blues’ did produce their best performance of the season last time out with a 3-0 win against Leicester. But the Foxes’ were dreadful, and prior to that win, Antonio Conte’s side had only won just once in their last five, and the Italian was backed into odds-on favourite to be the next Premier League manager to lose his job.

Mourinho produced a tactical masterclass to frustrate Liverpool at Anfield on Monday, and I can see him doing the same again, cranking up the mind games in the press conferences before Sunday.

United are in very good form arriving in West London unbeaten in their last five matches, and why they are 3.75 for the win with Betfred is staggering.

I can’t see Mourinho walking away as a loser and if you are not tempted by the price on United to win the match, then 2.50 on them on the draw no bet market also makes a lot of appeal.

Goals might be hard to come by if United’s tactics at Anfield are anything to go by, and in seven of the last eight matches between these two rivals, under 2.5 goals has been a winning bet. At 1.91 again with Betfred, throwing in the “Mourinho” factor as well, that looks an obvious play.

Close on Paper but Watford Holds the Value against Middlesbrough

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Middlesbrough takes on Watford at the Riverside on Sunday in what is a game that both sides believe equally they can win, but what’s the word in football betting circles? Both teams have had decent starts to the campaign but Boro has lagged of late. They have slipped to only two points above the drop zone and haven’t won in their last three league games.

Watford, on the other hand, has 8pts from their opening seven games which isn’t a bad return. They will travel to the Riverside fully believing that they can win this match and pick up all three points. This term, Middlesbrough have had something of a problem in finding the net. Just seven goals in seven games aren’t going to cut it at this level.

A Potent Threat

Watford on the other hand, seem to carry a much more potent threat going forward. The key question is where is the value? Do you think each team will cancel each other out? If so then back the draw! On paper, there isn’t really much to choose between these two teams. William Hill goes 23/20 on a home Middlesbrough win, while other firms like Stan James and BetVictor are 5/4.

We think the value though is in opposing Middlesbrough. They just don’t seem consistent and don’t seem to have the traditional home side edge. Watford is a good price 27/10 with Unibet as an away win. We feel that this bet perhaps linked with a draw could be the value.

Betbright is a best priced 12/5 for the draw. So a multiple bet on the draw and a Watford win should produce a nice profit.

Head to Head Stats

Watford just may have the psychological edge against Middlesbrough. This could be a key factor. Take into account the vital head-to-head stats for a minute. In the past five encounters, Middlesbrough has yet to beat The Hornets.

This even includes three matches at home where they have either drawn (twice) or been beaten. Also, Middlesbrough has only scored four times in those five games. They seem to be somewhat of a goal per game type of team. So if Watford scores, it is difficult to see Middlesbrough scoring twice, even at home.

The key to getting consistent results in the Premier League is in the chance conversion strike rate. Middlesbrough has a history of not scoring enough goals and this type of stat always puts the away team in with a shout.

Watford Always Score

Now here is a great stat for you. Watford always score! Yes, that’s right because in 15 out of the past 16 games vs Middlesbrough…..Watford has found the net! This all points to opposing Middlesbrough on Sunday. They do seem to be perhaps the most vulnerable of all the teams that are at home this weekend in the Premier League.

Only die hard Middlesbrough fans will be fancying their chances. The keen punters though will be looking at Watford and seeing them as one of the weekend’s value bets.