Tag: Premier League

Arsenal vs. Burnley: Will Wenger’s Men Prove Too Strong?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If you’re a Burnley fan, or just a canny punter looking for a bargain bet, you may be prepping yourself for a tough match on Sunday. Heading to Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium is never fun for any team, so when you’re a relatively small club like Burnley, this sort of fixture is always going to be tough.

However, just before you hold your hands up in despair, it’s worth noting that Burnley’s record against the Gunners isn’t that bad. In fact, since the two clubs first locked horns in 1896, Burnley has won 38 games, drawn 21 and lost 48. The optimistic among you will have already spotted that these stats mean Burnley have come away with at least a point on more occasions than they haven’t.

Recent Results Mean More than History as a Whole

Now, it’s fair to say that most of the positive results were recorded a few years ago (quite a few in some cases) and in recent times the Clarets haven’t fared as well. In fact, the last five meetings between the two clubs have all gone Arsenal’s way. With this being the case, the question for all betting bods then becomes: can Burnley roll back the clock and produce a vintage performance on January 22, or will Arsenal reconfirm their modern superiority?

Before we answer that question, let’s take a quick look at the outright betting markets. As it stands, Arsenal will start the game as favourites according to Sun Bets. With the home side a commanding 2/11 and the visitors way out of town at 12/1, the odds would suggest this match is only going to go one way. However, despite the betting markets not favouring the northern side, Sean Dyche’s men are far from pushovers.

Burnley Have Pushed the Top Dogs on Numerous Occasions

Yes, Turf Moor has been something of a fortress and provided the majority of Burnley’s best performances this season, but the club’s away form hasn’t been terrible. In fact, over the last five games, Burnley has only lost twice to Tottenham away (2-1) and Manchester City away (2-1). Narrow losses to two of the top sides in the country on their home patches are nothing to be ashamed of.

Of course, prior form against top competition on the road doesn’t necessarily mean Dyche and his men can do the same against Arsenal. But, if we’re going to put our necks on the line, at least one goal for Burnley isn’t out of the question. Now, stopping the likes of Ozil and Giroud from scoring two or more won’t be easy, but the least we can expect is Burnley to bring the pressure.

Odds Favour Arsenal but there’s Value in Burnley

From a betting perspective, Paddy Power’s 4/9 on over 2.5 goals isn’t a bad shout, but Joey Barton to score anytime at 13/2 with Coral looks to be the value bet of the day. With a goal against Southampton in the side’s last Premier League outing, Barton proved that he’s not quite done with top flight football just yet.

Yes, there was a deflection on the free-kick, but his effort in the middle of the park throughout the game was impressive (especially at 34-years-old) and that could earn him an opportunity at the Emirates. However, if we accept Barton to score anytime as a punt with some value, then a “banker” bet for this match looks something like Arsenal to win 2-1. Sun Bets currently has that result priced at 17/2, while the similar (and possibly more likely) 2-0 is 11/2.

Overall, it’s hard to see passed Arsenal in this one. With a 4-0 win last time out against Swansea, Arsene Wenger’s men are certainly fighting hard for second place this season. This sort of form, combined with previous results and a clear gap in quality, should see Arsenal secure a comfortable win. The question, on this occasion, is by how many goals.

Man United vs. Liverpool: Will United Make a Comeback?

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Man United vs. Liverpool is a proverbial titans clash, and one of the most hotly contested derby matches in world football looks set to be another screamer on January 15. Heading into the match, Liverpool is certainly the form team. However, despite four places separating them in the Premier League, the gulf between the two teams might not be as wide as some would think.

In overall terms, Liverpool is currently outpacing their Premier League rivals with 44 points to 39. Now, as any football aficionado will tell you, a six-point gap after 20 games might as well be 60 points when you’re fighting for the title. With the top teams barely losing more than a handful of games each season, hoping to secure two wins while your closest rival slips twice are almost futile.

Of course, overcoming a six-point gap is not impossible, it’s just improbable. Just how improbable? Well, according to Sun Bets experts, the chances of United overtaking Liverpool and the rest of the top five is 16/1. In contrast, Jurgen Klopp’s men are currently the 9/2 second-favourites for the title behind Chelsea (3/4).

It’s Closer than You Think

So, if United’s chances of closing the gap are just improbable and not impossible, it also stands to reason that they have a chance of winning on Sunday. Before we break down the best bets, let’s take a quick look at the numbers. Yes, Liverpool has opened up a sizeable points gap. But, when you look at the individual numbers, United isn’t that far off the pace.

Liverpool’s 13 wins aren’t drastically better than United’s 11. Similarly, United’s three losses are only one more than Liverpool’s two. In fact, when we look at goals against, United actually have the upper hand with 19 against vs. 23 against. OK, so what does this tell us? Well, the first thing to note is that things aren’t as bad at United as people may have first assumed.

Thanks to an unfortunate combination of past achievements, current expectations and sensationalist media coverage, United’s drop in form over the last season or so has been characterised as disastrous. While it’s fair to say it’s a far cry from the Ferguson glory days, it’s also true that it’s not a disaster.

In fact, if we accept this fact and remove our emotions from the situation, it quickly becomes clear that United has a chance in this match. Moreover, when we factor in that this match will take place at Old Trafford, it seems any initial assumptions that this will be a comfortable win for Liverpool seem to fade away.

Odds Favour United

If nothing else, Man United vs. Liverpool will be a close, competitive match. In fact, the bookmakers seem to agree. Despite the Premier League table, recent form and fan fever suggesting Liverpool is primed to clinch the latest derby match, the odds tell a different story. For those wanting the best outright price in the current conditions, William Hill is offering 11/4 on Liverpool and 23/20 on United.

A tenner on the former at that price would return you £37.50, while the same on the latter would give you £21.50. Of course, with the gap between the two teams being tighter than many would assume, a draw could also be on the cards this weekend. Coral’s odds makers are offering 9/4 on a stalemate, as is William Hill. For a touch more value, Sun Bets will give you 23/10 on a draw, which means £10 could be worth £33.

Look for the Sensational Comeback

However, with this match promising to deliver on all fronts, it seems wise to look beyond the outrights and towards some specifics. Both teams to score at 3/4 with Sun Bets looks a strong, if not fairly uninspiring shout.

For our money, though, United to win from behind looks a tasty proposition. There’s no doubt Liverpool is going to travel to Manchester with the bit between their teeth. Recent form and Premier League superiority will allow Klopp’s men to come out firing, and if likes of Firmino can start strong, an early goal is a distinct possibility.

However, with United on a run of five wins and the home crowd backing them, a comeback will always be likely. Yes, it could end in a draw, but with odds of 10/1 on United coming from behind to win, it seems that it’s worth taking a punt on the more outlandish outcome.

Whatever the result, Man United vs. Liverpool will be another high-octane match. But, if you’re looking for a cheeky punt, a few quid on United to steal the show should give you a few more reasons to smile come the final whistle.

Can Tottenham Maintain their Great Title Form?

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Tottenham fans simply cannot forget how they let the title slip last season. What made matters even worse was in how they were eventually overtaken by close neighbours Arsenal and finished third. Those wounds still run deep around White Hart Lane. Tottenham struggled to come to terms with playing at Wembley and were subsequently dumped out of the Champions League a few weeks ago.

Their form in the Premier League has been excellent. They currently have 42pts from 20 games and should that form continue until the end of the season, they will surely make the top four. Tottenham is currently 7pts behind leaders Chelsea. Their impressive 2-0 win against The Blues last week took some momentum out of the Chelsea title charge. It also dragged Spurs back into the race.

Tottenham Simply Must Win

If Tottenham really is going to contest the title race then they must surely beat West Brom at home. With a seven-point deficit to overcome, securing three points at home to middle of the table teams is a necessity. Tottenham has started 2017 with a bang. They thumped Watford 4-1 away and then recorded back-to-back 2-0 home victories against Chelsea and Aston Villa in the FA Cup.

West Brom on the other hand, is a very resilient team under Tony Pulis. They have also had an impressive first half to the season. With an impressive 29pts recorded so far, West Brom currently sits eighth in the table. They may have lost at home to Derby County in the FA Cup last weekend, but that won’t have bothered Tony Pulis too much.

Where are the Best Bets?

Despite Tottenham arguably having one of the best squads in the league, their odds in this match are prohibitive. William Hill offers the stand out odds of 4-11 for a Spurs home win. You can also get an attractive 10-1 from Ladbrokes for an away win for West Brom. While Tottenham may be in decent form, they have drawn a lot of games this season and especially during the opening twelve matches.

This means that the 9-2 offered by BetFred may tempt a few people should you predict a Tottenham slip up. The chances are that Tottenham will win but the value is thin at best with odds of 4-11. While the 10-1 from Ladbrokes for an away victory does seem tempting, you will lose your money a significant number of times placing bets like these given how well Tottenham are playing at the moment. The recommended bet here would be to back Tottenham while placing a quarter of your stake on the draw as a safeguard.

Goals Expected At Anfield

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2016 ends with what looks a Premier League classic on Saturday evening when Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield.

This clash between two of the best entertainers in England’s top flight promises to be one of the best games of the year as a defeat for either side is unthinkable.

Chelsea will lead the table going into 2017 and these two sides are the nearest pursuers to the Blues’ in the title race and both Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp will be well aware that a defeat for their side could see them out of the title race in January.

The bookies make Liverpool their 11/8 favourites with pretty much every layer and with three successive wins after a mini blip at the start of the month they are proving a popular selection.

City arrives in Merseyside in form as well, with three wins on the spin also; they are priced up at 13/5 across the board, and with a draw no good for either side, they will be going all out for the victory.

Where Do We Profit From This Match-up?

This is as tough as it gets to find a winner, and for me, the value plays lie far away from the match outcome, and the areas we have to concentrate instead for the winners are on the goals markets.

In eight of Liverpool’s last 12 matches, both teams have scored and that is exactly the same record at City; the 8/15 on both teams scoring again with William Hills is a banker for the NY Eve BTTS coupon, or for any big staking clients in a single.

Over 2.5 goals has also come in as a winner in four of the last five Liverpool matches and in four of the last six over at City, and again that looks another banker at the general 8/13 that is with all the bookies.

This match sees two of the best attacking sides in the Premier League, with equally poor defenses having to go all out for the win and with goals looking a certainty for smaller punters the over 3.5 goals in the match and the over 4.5 goals at 7/4 and 4/1 again with William Hills should be played.

Sergio Aguero returns for City after missing four games through suspension, which strengthens the goals claim and the Argentinian is 5.00 to score the opening goal on his return in a game where goals are expected the 2.10 on him to score at any time looks a nice play.

Southampton vs. West Brom – Tense, Exciting Battle for Mid-Table

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Two teams in solid form coming together in what will be a tactical and potentially cagey mid-table battle between two effective and organised squads.

Clash of the Overachievers

Southampton and West Brom have undoubtedly been two of the surprise packages of the season so far. Having seen second summer of transfer raids on St Mary’s, and a third managerial regime change in 3 successive seasons, Southampton were being tipped at the beginning of this season for possible decline.

Currently sitting in 7th place after a good run of form, taking 10 points in the last 5, and progressing in the EFL Cup with a 2:0 win away to Arsenal, Claude Puel is proving those critics wrong. A poor showing in the Europa League could end up being a mixed blessing for a side looking to finish in a solid Premier League position while competing in 2 domestic cups. Southampton has a game in hand over West Brom, playing Tottenham on Wednesday night in their post-Christmas fixture. This will be an important game for Puel, as a defeat here could spell the end of any hopes for his team to finish in a top 6 position, while a victory will see them keep pace while doing damage to an immediate rival.

Against West Brom, the Frenchman will have to deal with some absences: with Jordy Clasie definitely out and Alex McCarthy in doubt, as well as long-term injuries for Charlie Austin and Matt Targett. Having only 3 days between their previous game, as opposed to West Brom’s 5, could have an impact on overall squad fitness.

Getting back to their best

West Brom is currently 8th, only one point behind Southampton, having played one more. The Baggies will be looking to pick up important points in a game they have every reason to believe they can win, or at least take points. Tony Pulis’ squad have had some tough recent fixtures, playing Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea in the last four, with their win against Swansea the only bright point in a gruelling winter period. A closer look at those games, however, demonstrates an organised and capable West Brom side. Against both Arsenal and Chelsea, they only lost by one goal conceded in the last 10 minutes, and they weren’t exactly overwhelmed by United. Pulis generally puts his back to the wall against the bigger clubs, while targeting teams below or around him to try for consolidated results, and he will very much want to take 3 points in this last game of December.

West Brom is amongst the fittest squads in the League, with all first team players available, apart from Saido Berhino who hasn’t played a role so far this season.

Where is the value?

We have seen a clean sheet in the last eight games these two have played, and the last nine games split evenly with each team taking 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. Picking a result seems to be quite a challenge, with West Brom having the edge in fitness, but Southampton having the home advantage.

It’s very hard to imagine this being a particularly high scoring game; Southampton has one of the lowest BTTS ratings in the league, as well as a good run of home clean sheets. BTTS/No and Under 2.5 goals looking like solid picks, they are both at 8/13 on Bet365. Some outside bets on a correct score could be interesting, with Southampton 1:0 and 2:0 at 19/4 and 7/1 respectively on BetVictor.

 

Tottenham Looking to End Poor Away Form Against Southampton

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Southampton and Tottenham return to Premier League business on Wednesday evening when they clash at St. Mary’s following a welcome 10-day break from action for both clubs.

The match does, however, signal the start of a busy festive period in the top division as Saints prepare for three matches in just six days while Spurs contemplate three fixtures in a slightly more favourable eight days.

Claude Puel’s team will be looking to extend their impressive home form which has seen them lose just once in eight matches on home soil in the league this season to Premier League pacesetters Chelsea.

Tottenham, lying fifth in the table meanwhile, will be seeking to end a poor run of away form which has seen them collect just three points on the road from their last five league matches.

Mauricio Pochettino returns to the south coast for only the second time since his acrimonious departure from Southampton for White Hart Lane in the summer of 2014. And the Argentine will be hoping his team can close the gap on the teams above them in the table with all three points, just as he did on his maiden return to his former employers last December.

Southampton boss Puel will be without top goalscorer Charlie Austin who has gone under the knife for surgery on a shoulder injury which is likely to keep him sidelined for anything up to four months. Austin’s absence could give Jay Rodriguez another opportunity to start after his brace of goals last time out inspired Southampton to a 3-1 win over local rivals Bournemouth.

Spurs, on the other hand, go into the match boasting an almost full strength squad with former Saints defender Toby Alderweireld and Dutch forward Vincent Janssen back to fitness, leaving just Erik Lamela still unavailable as he nurses a long-term hip injury.

Despite their iffy away form, Spurs will go into the match boasting a strong recent record at St. Mary’s. Three wins and a draw from their last four trips to the south coast should give Pochettino confidence that his team can finally turn around their dismal recent away form. Southampton though has to go all the way back to 2005 for their last home victory over Spurs.

Southampton with eight goals in eight home matches this season, and Spurs, who despite their poor recent record have still notched 10 goals on their travels, gives great value to the both teams to score market at Yes 1.80 on Betway.

Elsewhere, with Harry Kane starting to find the net with increasing regularity for the North London outfit recently, the England international is tempting at 9/2 with bet365 to net first on Wednesday evening.