Southampton, fresh from their EFL final loss to Man United last Sunday, travel to Watford for this mid-table clash.
Watford
After a turbulent run of form over the festive period, leading some to ask whether they might be dragged into the relegation dogfight, Watford are looking all but safe with 31 points, 9 points clear of the zone. Walter Mazzarri will be looking to capitalise on a light February schedule of only 3 games, and a run of fixtures against Southampton, Palace and Sunderland in March to pick up the points needed to put any question of relegation to bed for the season. The Italian will also want to make amends for last Saturday’s somewhat disappointing result against West Ham, having led from 3 minutes in and against ten men, they went on to concede a goal and the win in the last quarter of the match.
The big news for Watford is new signing Mauro Zarate picking up a cruciate ligament injury, putting him out of action until August. They will also be without first choice keeper Costel Pantilimon, Nordin Amrabat, Roberto Pereyra. Daryl Janmaat and Christian Kabasele are both in doubt.
Southampton
A terrific performance against United in the EFL final last weekend saw the Saints come within 5 minutes of extra time, having brought the game back from 2:0 down, with a goal unfairly ruled out, Southampton will be justifiably devastated with the outcome. They will have to put the result out of their heads and concentrate on recreating some of their great play from the final for the game against Watford.
Sitting a point behind Watford, Southampton are 8 points above the relegation zone in 13th place, but having dropped out of every other competition they will be able to focus everything they have on their league finish; 14 points is an all but impossible gap between them and Everton in the Europa League spots. The EFL fixture brought some confusion to the scheduling, but they will likely have to play Arsenal, Tottenham and United again in the next month or so. Picking up 3 points in this game would be important insulation going into a tough run.
Claude Puel has a few long term injuries to contend with, Matthew Targett, Charlie Austin and Virgil Van Dijk all scheduled to return next month. Jeremy Pied and Alex McCarthy are both lacking match fitness after long absences.
The value
Looking at the head to head stats, there doesn’t seem to be much between the two. The corresponding fixture in August at St Mary’s ended 1:1. Last season saw them draw 0:0 and Southampton win 2:0 at home. You would have to go back to 2008 to see Watford beat Southampton.
Overall, I would be somewhat wary of picking a winner in this game and am instead looking to the goal markets. The last 5 Southampton games have seen over 2.5 goals, and 4/5 of Watford’s last premier league home games have seen both teams score. Bet 365 have BTTS at 19/20, and Bet Victor have Over 2.5 at 13/10, both of which seem to be good value.
