Tag: Puissance De Lune

PB Lawrence Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Saturday’s Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes sees the eagerly awaited return of Puissance De Lune. The galloping grey won this race last year to cement his position as favourite for the Melbourne Cup but things did not go his way during the course of the season.

His ran well in defeat in the Makybe Diva Stakes and the Turnbull Stakes and many still had faith in him for Flemington until he was struck by injury on his fourth start. At first it was thought that he was simply lame but scans revealed lesions on both front tendons. For a while it seemed that we may have seen the last of him on the racecourse but connections have brought him back in search of a Group 1 victory.

Their target is the Makybe Diva in which he was narrowly beaten by Foreteller last season. Reading between the lines, he is expected to need this race and they would be delighted to see him finishing strongly in the first four or five. The bookmakers aren’t taking any chances by chalking him up at around 2-1 but there must be better value elsewhere.

Foreteller also suffered an injury when disappointing in The BMW at Rosehill Gardens and he is another on the road to recovery for Chris Waller. Blarney Stakes winner Lidari usually goes well first time up and Peter Moody has entered him in the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. He is quite short in the betting at around 4-1 and I prefer the claims of former UK middle-distance performer Spillway.

Spillway joined David Hayes after running well in Group 2 and Group 3 races, notably when placed in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. He also ran creditably when fourth to Telescope in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He won his second start in Australia in the Group 3 Japan Racing Association Plate at Royal Randwick in April. His fitness is also open to question.

A couple who are race fit are Gig and Zamorar. Gig was second to Thiamandi at Caulfield last month in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes and could again sneak into the frame. Zamorar was third to Tiger Tees in the Group 3 Aurie’s Star Handicap last weekend under Katelyn Mallyon. The young jockey is looking for her first taste of Group race victory and could be in the money with fitness doubts over so many of her rivals.

Zamorar @8.0 Ladbrokes

Gig @15.0 Ladbrokes

Each-way 1/5 odds, 1,2,3

Cox Plate Preview

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The sad news that Atlantic Jewel has suffered a career-ending injury ahead of Saturday’s Cox Plate may have detracted slightly from the race but it is still a high class event. The bookies have reacted by bracketing leading Melbourne Cup hopes Fiorente and Puissance de Lune with Its A Dundeel at 7-2 and the value could lie with the latter.

I have the greatest respect for both Cup horses but this race is over six furlongs shorter and that must surely give It’s A Dundeel a big advantage. He narrowly defeated Atlantic Jewel on his most recent outing before a minor injury interrupted his campaign but recent track work has confirmed his well-being.

The snag is that he has drawn stall 12 but Fiorente is still outside him in 14 and Puissance de Lune will be produced late from stall 7. Providing there isn’t a strong pace it should not be too difficult to overcome the wide draw and swamp his rivals for speed in the closing stages.

European observers are baffled by the build-up of the Cup horses with the likes of Fiorente racing at seven furlongs and a mile in preparation for a two-mile race. Last season Green Moon was strongly fancied for the Cox Plate but ran poorly only to bounce back and lift the Melbourne Cup next time out.

Fiorente ran a super race in the Turnbull Stakes last time out and is currently favourite for Flemington. Presumably he will be produced with a long run up the straight again here and it will then be all systems go for the Cup. I have to side with proven form over the distance and 7-2 looks a decent bet for It’s a Dundeel.

There is no better rider in these races than Craig Williams and Andrew Balding has snapped him to partner his globetrotting Side Glance. The six-year-old gelding has been fourth in the World Cup and third in the Arlington Million this year so is certainly earning his keep. I’m not too sure whether the one stall will help as he invariably runs just behind the pace and Williams will have to be careful not to be swamped by horses on his outside if taking him back early on.

Mull Of Killough has improved out of all recognition over the past couple of seasons but ran disappointingly at Arlington park. I think he just ran too freely there and found himself in front with four furlongs to travel. If we put a line through that run, he could run better than his odds suggest but this looks a tough assignment.

It’s a Dundeel 7-2 (William Hill)

Makybe Diva Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The futures betting for the Melbourne Cup this year has been dominated by the grey Puissance De Lune who is trading as 5-1 favourite. His position as outright market leader could come under threat this weekend as Sea Moon makes his long awaited debut in Australia.

European fans will be very familiar with Sea Moon who was trained by Sir Michael Stoute until finishing down the field in the Arc last season. He first made the headlines when bolting up in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He went into that race on the back of a victory in a handicap off a mark of 92. After being held up by Richard Hughes, he cruised through to lead over a furlong from home still hard on the steel. When Hughes pressed the button, Sea Moon stretched clear to win by eight lengths from Al Kazeem.

It would be foolish to take that form literally as Al Kazeem is clearly a much improved performer this season. He slammed last year’s Derby winner Camelot in Ireland before winning the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Coral Eclipse at Sandown park. Not surprisingly, Sea Moon was a short priced favourite for the St Leger but could only stay on into third place behind Masked Marvel after meeting with interference. Connections were understandably disappointed but he proved that running to be all wrong when running at the Breeders’ Cup.

Although proving no match for St Nicholas Abbey, he ran on well to finish second, beaten just over 2 lengths. He had to work hard to hold off Dandino at Goodwood on his first start as a four-year-old but was back to his brilliant best when winning at Royal Ascot. His victory in the Hardwicke Stakes reads like a “Who’s who” of recent Melbourne Cup races. He beat Dunaden and Red Cadeaux by three and a half lengths and three-quarters of a length. Jakkalberry was fifth, Fiorente was sixth and  My Quest For Peace finished tenth.

He went on to finish a close fifth in the King George at Ascot before struggling in the heavy ground in the Arc. His official rating in the UK was 124. Puissance de Lune has been simply awesome and the variety of distances that the top Australian horses are asked to race over is quite astonishing compared to their European competitors. The grey won over 13 furlongs last season and was last seen winning over seven furlongs in August. This weekend’s race is just short of a mile, a distance half a mile short of anything tackled by Sea Moon since 2011.

Puissance de Lune will be making his debut at Group 1 level and will meet his rivals on weight-for-age terms. Masked Marvel is also making his Australian debut but his victory in the Leger (2937m) suggests he will be struggling for pace. The field also includes the Anthony Freedman-trained Waldpark who finished half a length second to leading Arc hope Novellist on his last start in Germany.

One horse that will not be inconvenienced by the trip is former Henry Cecil-trained Jet Away. The six-year-old has won the Golden Mile (1600m) and Group 3 Easter Cup (2000m) since arriving from England. 2012 Australian Derby winner Ethiopia and three-time Group 1 winner Manighar are also in the line-up.

The bookmakers are showing Puissance de Lune at $1.70 for Saturday’s race. He has fitness on his side but Sea Moon ($8.00) and Jet Away ($13.00) are serious opponents. If they are fit enough to do themselves justice on Saturday we could see a major shake-up in the futures market for Flemington.

Sea Moon $8.00 Sportsbet

Jet Away $13.00 Sportsbet