At 3-1 up New Zealand can’t lost the series. There will be no talk of a drawn series however, as a 4-2 or 5-1 series win will sound a much stronger warning to opposition teams prior to the World Cup and will also give them unbelievable momentum heading in to further warm up matches against Pakistan.
Aiding New Zealand’s pursuit of a series win will be the glorious summer’s day forecasted in Dunedin. With a pitch that will have flattened out further, and a University Oval outfield and boundary size that has proven itself to be conducive to big totals, we’re expecting a high scoring game.
The Last Time These Two Met
At 90/5 New Zealand were up against it. The local television network’s WASP predictor was giving them little chance of posting a respectable total. However, Grant Elliot and Luke Ronchi combined for a record-breaking sixth wicket partnership of 267* to see New Zealand through to an ultimately too demanding total of 360/5. Ronchi was the chief destroyer. Initially counter-attacking the appropriate ball before launching an all out assault on the hapless Sri Lankan’s. Ronchi scored a first ODI hundred, just a few months after he missed out by one run against South Africa, finishing with 170* – the highest score by a number 7 in ODI cricket. Elliot completed a century late on too. He finished with 104*.
Despite a pleasing century to Tillakaratne Dilshan, Sri Lanka never really threatened the Black Caps total. Dilshan scored his second ton of the series, but lacked support from his countryman, following the trend for the rest of the series whereby the experienced heads are missing help from the surrounding unit.
The Teams
New Zealand (likely): 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Brendon McCullum (capt), 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Grant Elliott, 6 Luke Ronchi (wk) , 7 Corey Anderson, 8 Nathan McCullum/Daniel Vettori, 9 Mitchell McClenaghan, 10 Kyle Mills, 11 Trent Boult
Adam Milne is the only injury concern within the NZ squad, so any changes are likely to be part of the wider rotation plans. Mitchell McClenaghan hasn’t had much cricket in the series and is likely to be included alongside Kyle Mills, who returns from injury.
Sri Lanka (likely): 1 Lahiru Thirimanne, 2 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 3 Kumar Sangakkara (wk), 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5 Angelo Mathews (capt)/Dimuth Karunaratne, 6 Dinesh Chandimal, 7 Thisara Perara, 8 Jeevan Mendis, 9 Nuwan Kulasekara, 10 Sachithra Senanayake/Rangana Herath, 11 Dhammika Prasad
Angelo Matthews is not yet fully fit. Thirimanne will captain in his place, and Herath is expected to return.
The Key Players
Ross Taylor – Taylor’s miserable summer is best summed up by the fact that he hasn’t crossed 40 at any stage. In four test innings, and four ODI innings Taylor has a best of only 38. He needs more runs before the start of the World Cup and today might be the day. He looked better in Dunedin one, he only needs to convert the start into a Ronchi sized hundred.
Dimuth Karunaratne – He’s probably missed the opportunity to open at the World Cup but a middle order spot could still be available if he bangs he door down. To do so the left hander who has already enjoyed some success on the tour needs to convert his starts (much like Ross Taylor). Thus, Dunedin two will make for an interesting match for two struggling batsman.
The Match Odds*
New Zealand – $1.55
Sri Lanka – $2.35
*Courtesy of Luxbet.
The Prediction
New Zealand are operating better in all three facets. It’s difficult to see them losing this one. Back New Zealand, back Williamson to top score.
