Tag: Rizeena

Newmarket Friday Preview

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I was quite surprised to discover that the rain had changed the going to good to soft at Newmarket on Thursday. I had spent the day in sweltering heat in Scotland and had not even given a thought to the possibility of a going change.

There is more rain forecast for the south on Friday so it may well be worth noting down some soft ground specialists just in case. I had reviewed the Falmouth Stakes yesterday and gone for Rizeena to follow up her Royal Ascot victory. She has run on soft ground before without a problem, although it may test her stamina. If the rain continues to fall, you could easily see Purr putting in a good performance for Johnny Murtagh’s stable.

I’m keeping faith with hat-trick seeking Etaab in the opener. She looks like a filly who does just enough to win and could be up to defying a 6lbs rise. William Haggas seems to have mastered the knack of placing his horses correctly and she should give us a good run for our money. I could not see any particular preference for soft going among her rivals so it could become something of a lottery if it is genuinely soft.

Andre Fabre pays one of his rare visits to these shores for the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at 2.10. I have no idea why there is such a poor turnout for this Group 2 race, especially when there were 21 runners in the Queen Mary. We have had some odd turnouts this season with some extremely poor Group races and a mockery of an Irish Derby at the Curragh. I can only assume that Fabre’s High Celebrity has frightened them all away.

She bolted up over seven furlongs on her debut, winning with embarrassing ease. This could possibly be an early sighter from Fabre to see if she could be a Cheveley Park/Guineas filly in the making. Aidan O’Brien’s I Am Beautiful only scrambled home last time and High Celebrity has to be the selection.

The six furlong handicap looks virtually impossible, even more so when you factor in the state of the ground. I am more interested in the maiden race featuring Obsidian and Razor Wind. Obsidian chased home the smart Kings Fete at Sandown but those that finished behind look moderate. Almerzem ran a shocking race earlier in the week while Karraar has had numerous opportunities.

I am therefore siding with Razor Wind who was an eye-catching third at Windsor behind Igider. Kleo (second) and Wakea (fourth) have both won nicely since and it was clearly an above average maiden.

1.40 Etaab at 5-1 Paddy Power

2.10 High Celebrity at 5-6 Bet365

2.40 Rizeena at 5-1 William Hill

4.25 Razor Wind

Falmouth Stakes Preview

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The Group 1 Falmouth Stakes may only have attracted seven runners but it is not short on quality with two Royal Ascot winners and last year’s 1000 Guineas winner in attendance.

The market leader is Integral who was one of four Royal winners for Sir Michael Stoute last month. She was heavily backed to win the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes and ran out a comfortable winner from L’Amour De Ma Vie and Purr Along. The third horse re-opposes along with fifth placed Sky Lantern.

I had tipped Sky Lantern but feared the worst when she began to drift in the betting. Clearly there was no stable confidence behind her so it was a creditable run to finish only five lengths off the winner. She never appeared with a chance that day and will be seeking justice for her unlucky run in this race 12 months ago.

You may recall that she was carried half-way across Newmarket Heath by Elusive Katie who was allowed to keep the race. I am all for letting the best horse keep the race but it does sometimes seem that your jockey would have to drag his rival off his horse to have the race taken off him these days!

As much as I admire both Integral and Sky Lantern, I am puzzled by the opposition to Coronation Stakes winner Rizeena in the betting. Clive Brittain’s filly didn’t manage to get into the frame in the 1000 Guineas but plenty of good fillies have done that in the past. She then won at Ascot despite being in front for a long time under Ryan Moore.

It was a muddling race but she showed that she was back to her best and has Olivier Peslier aboard on Friday. The Frenchman will be well advised on Rizeena’s quirks and I can see him shadowing Moore on Integral waiting to pounce late on. Hughes will probably do the same on Sky Lantern but I just wonder if she still has the same speed as a year ago.

Certify missed her classic season after the shenanigans at Godolphin and won first time out in Dubai. She has disappointed twice since and she does not look good enough. Kiyoshi looks a difficult ride while only the bookies will be cheering for Purr Along and Peace Burg.

Rizeena at 9-2 Paddy Power

1000 Guineas Update

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In February we advised taking the 16-1 about Ihtimal for the 1000 Guineas and she is now a top priced 10-1 for the Newmarket classic. Our regular readers will know that she has been a star filly for this column, providing us with four wins in her last five races.

I first noticed her running on gamely at Royal Ascot last summer and she has done nothing but improve ever since. The reason for her still being so attractively priced for the Guineas is probably her third place behind Chriselliam and Rizeena on her final start of the season. I don’t think De Sousa was at his best that day, riding her well off the pace and she could never land a blow at rivals that were still quickening.

Unlike favourite Rizeena, Ihtimal has already won over a mile and has the Epsom Oaks in her sights as well as the 1000 Guineas. I suppose it is easy to be sceptical about the value of the form in Dubai but she was hugely impressive in the UAE Oaks. She absolutely pulverised her rivals and is going to arrive fit and fancied next month.

Clive Brittain is one of life’s great optimists and has always maintained that Rizeena was more than just a speed filly. She has already shown that she gets seven furlongs well and should stay a mile but I cannot see her as a 4-1 chance or even shorter. Aidan O’Brien’s runners are always a threat but I haven’t seen anything run a better trial than Ihtimal at Meydan.

Miss France and Vorda have run poorly in the build up to this race and I’m convinced that the latter is a sprinter. It would be great to see George Margarson win a classic with Lucky Kristale but she looked a nervy filly last season and she will find this difficult first time out. The Newbury trial won by J Wonder looked average and I did not see anything in the Nell Gwyn to worry Ihtimal.

Finally, it was sad to hear of the passing of former BBC commentator Julian Wilson at the age of 73. Televised racing has gone through some changes since Wilson and O’Sullevan departed, very few of them for the better. He retired in 1997 and I dread to think what he must have thought of the BBC’s total capitulation in televising the sport.

Ihtimal at 10-1 Bet365, Paddy Power

Newmarket Day 2 Preview

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Friday’s card at Newmarket features arguably the most interesting clash of the week with Rizeena and Ihtimal meeting over a mile at 3.15. I am a big fan of both fillies and it is little wonder that they both figure highly in the ante-post market for next season’s 1000 Guineas.

When Rizeena surged through to take the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, most pundits were happy to disregard Clive Brittain’s rhetoric that she could be a Guineas filly as being typical of his optimistic outlook on life. When she was beaten by Lucky Kristale at Newmarket, it did seem that she may be more a speed machine but subsequent runs in France and Ireland have proved otherwise.

Her fast finishing third in France behind No Nay Never offered every encouragement that she would stay beyond six furlongs and she duly landed the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland. I  believe that her rivals played into her hands that day but she was the winner on merit and clearly has superior form to Ihtimal.

The Godolphin filly has improved with every race this season and I was very confident that she would win the May Hill at Doncaster. She was given a good lead by Majeyda before producing an impressive burst of speed to go clear. She had put in a similar display in the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket previously, running on powerfully at the finish. She seems a straight forward filly whereas Rizeena might just have a tendency to hang fire when she hits the front.

I was expecting the odds to reflect that the race is a virtual match despite the presence of the unbeaten Sound Reflection and the useful Wonderfully. To my surprise, Ihtimal has been chalked up at 3-1 by Bet365. To my eyes, that is great value. If she is beaten by Rizeena then so be it, but I’d have thought she was a 2-1 shot or shorter.

The card opens with 15-length Lingfield scorer Radiator in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She meets much stiffer opposition here including Lightning Thunder who did us a favour at Doncaster and the French raider Miss France. Andre Fabre doesn’t waste his time sending over moderate horses so it could be an interesting little contest.

Other horses to  note on a top quality card include the smart maiden Yuften who passes up some Group race entries to run in the 3.50 and John Gosden’s Gatewood (4.25). The latter shaped well on his comeback race after a spell in Australia and could still have a future as a Cup horse.

Ihtimal (3.15 Newmarket) 3-1 Bet365

Newmarket July Meeting Day 2 July 12th

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We got off to a great start on the opening day with Feel Like Dancing (100-30) and what a good ride by William Buick. He never allowed the leader to get too far ahead and his mount kept answering the call despite coming under pressure a long way from home. Even so, I seriously doubt whether it is St Leger form.

We were out of luck in the handicap where Buick’s mount Space Ship was outpaced before staying on again in the closing stages. He may have had enough racing for the time being whilst Goodwood Mirage may want a bit of give in the ground. Thankfully our banker bet on Montiridge (5-6) was never in danger so we’re still in their fighting going into day 2.

The standout bet tomorrow has to be a double on the flying fillies Sky Lantern and Rizeena. The grey was the most impressive winner at the Royal meeting when winning the Coronation Stakes by four lengths from a poor draw. The four-runner field raises question marks over race tactics but I’d think Sky Lantern is the quickest of these off any pace. I would have thought it impossible to get into difficulty with only four runners on Newmarket’s wide expanse but I only need to recall the recent win for Lost In The Moment to realise that is not the case!

Rizeena produced a terrific burst of speed to win the Queen Mary Stakes and I cannot see the extra furlong making any difference to the result here. Fig Roll and Bye Bye Birdie may be useful fillies but Rizeena looked to have a touch of class and I’m happy to put her in a double with Sky Lantern.

William Hill and Coral are both going 10-11 and 11-8 respectively at the time of writing. They may be offering enhanced terms for the double so good luck if you’re prepared to shop around.

The opening race looks tricky and Sir Michael Stoute’s Dream Wild is a bit of a mystery at the bottom of the weights. She put in a very laboured performance when beaten at odds-on at Salisbury and I’m not aware of any excuses. If she bolts up tomorrow we will no doubt find out! I prefer to side with the proven form of Jubilante. She is very closely weighted with Nardin but the booking of Ryan Moore just swings the vote in her favour.

The main betting race of the day is the handicap at 3.15 and I have to keep faith with Moviesta after his gallant effort at York. He was actually fly jumping in the early stages and I was surprised that he still managed to finish second. If he settles better he should win.

Double
Rizeena 11-8 Coral
Sky Lantern 10-11 Coral

Jubilante 6-1 William Hill
Moviesta 8-1 Ladbrokes