I’m pleased to be back in profit after a successful day 2 at Aintree. I hope that a few of you took a chance on the four-timer! Both of Alan King’s hurdlers rewarded each-way support at nice prices and only Tartak let the side down when tipping up in the Topham. Now for the big one!
I’ve long been a fan of On His Own for the Grand National and I see no reason to desert him at this stage. The 10-1 on offer with William Hill still looks like a fair bet to me. He probably would have liked a bit more rain as he did seem to be slowly away last year. Having said that, he could hardly have a better pilot than Ruby Walsh and he should be able to keep him in touch. I’ve also advised a little of the 40-1 each-way on Always Waining. Trainer Peter Bowen seems a little pessimistic about his chances of staying the trip but he is well used to the hurly burly of the National course and those odds are too good to pass up.
After Nicky Henderson fired off another four winners on Friday, you have to take him seriously when he suggests that Roberto Goldback is not without a chance. Henderson is too good a trainer to run horses in the National just for the sake of it and the horse definitely has the ground in his favour. He ran sweetly for Barry Geraghty at Ascot first time out and if he is that sort of mood the 33-1 with Coral might be worth a punt.
Friday’s card was all about favourites but Saturday looks far more testing. The Maghull Novices’ Chase at 2.15 will show whether Baily Green is as good as his Arkle second to Simonsig suggests. Overturn was on a hiding to nothing that day but will find this easier track much more to his liking and Alderwood steps out of handicap company after winning the Grand Annual. Whilst all three have obvious chances, the better value bet may be to take a chance on Sire De Grugy at 8-1. He was a decent hurdler but has always had the scope to make a chaser and, unlike his rivals, does not come here after a hard race at the festival.
The Grade 1 John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle over three miles puts the World Hurdle form under the spotlight with Solwhit, Celestial Halo and Smad Place meeting again. I expect the placings to be confirmed but I am more interested in Alan King’s Medinas, winner of the Coral Cup at the festival. He may be built like a pony but he has the heart of a lion and defied 11st 10lb at the festival under a great ride from Wayne Hutchinson. With Smad Place being the stable number one, Richard Johnson steps in for the ride and I’m hopeful that he can make it into the first three. Odds of 14-1 seems terrific each-way value. I also have a healthy respect for African Gold but he looks like a chaser in the making and may find this course a bit sharp.
On His Own 10-1 William Hill
Always Waining 40-1 Paddy Power
Roberto Goldback 33-1 Coral
Sire De Grugy 8-1 Bet365
Medinas 14-1 Paddy Power
