Tag: Rosehill Racecourse odds

Sydney Still Soggy For BMW Day At Rosehill Gardens

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Another week, another 100 millimetres of rain for Sydney, meaning Saturday’s Group 1 meeting at Rosehill Gardens again looks set to be run on a heavy track. But in stark contrast to a soggy Randwick, the Rosehill track held up remarkably for last week’s Golden Slipper meeting and we’re expecting a fair racing surface. It was also a surprisingly easy assignment for punters with most races dominated by genuine wet trackers that had race fitness on their side. But before the main course of The BMW is served on Saturday, there’s a tasty entrée in store as the Melbourne autumn winds down.

G1 Friday at the Valley

With the Mornington Cup occupying stand-alone Saturday status, city racegoers will be heading to Moonee Valley on Friday night for the running of the Group 1 $500,000 Keogh Homes William Reid Stakes at weight for age conditions over 1200m. Melbourne’s final Group 1 race of the season was first run in 1925. It was famously won by Manikato five years in a row (1979-1983), while Ascot champions Black Caviar and Miss Andretti are also past champions. There’s a very even field of 12 engaged this year, with Star Turn a narrow favourite ($4.20 with Ladbrokes), while The Quarterback is the rank outsider at just $20 (with William Hill). Last year’s winner Flamberge is a $16 chance with bet365. Gary Portelli celebrated victory with She Will Reign in the Golden Slipper last week and we like his chances here with #1 Rebel Dane ($10 with Luxbet). The 7yo entire won the G1 Manikato (this track/distance/grade) last October while jockey Ben Melham is in superb form.

Mare a Fair Chance in Tough WFA Test

Showers are forecast in Sydney for the 48 hours prior to this weekend’s showpiece race at Rosehill, meaning a track upgrade is unlikely at this stage. The feature has been known as The BMW since 2002 and was normally held on Golden Slipper Day but was shuffled to build some space between the Golden Slipper and The Championships. Only nine horses will line-up from the 2400m start for the $1.5 million weight for age race this year, with four well clear in the betting – last week’s Ranvet winner Our Ivanhowe ($4.60), 2017 Australian Cup victor Humidor ($4.20), Sky High winner Tavago ($6.00) and Jameka ($3.80), which won last year’s Caulfield Cup. The former was superb in similar conditions last week and could well go back-to-back but with a slight pull in the weights, we’re leaning to #8 Jameka. The 4yo mare is fourth-up this prep, proven at the distance and will get through the slop.

Kiwi Filly to Bounce Back

Aspiring Australian Oaks runners will come to the fore in the traditional lead-up race – the G1 $500,000 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m for the 3yo fillies. It’s a race with an honour roll that includes Lucia Valentina (2014), Mosheen (2012), Miss Finland (2007) and Special Harmony (2004). In the past 15 years, the winners have come through 10 different races across nine different tracks while favourites have snared five of the past 11 editions. The Chris Waller-trained Foxplay holds favouritism with Unibet ($3.30) with another four runners rated at better than $10. We’re going to give the Kiwi filly #1 La Bella Diosa ($6 with Sportsbet) one more chance. Her form had been faultless until a horror run in the G1 Coolmore here on March 11. She’s been passed fit by vets and has worked well since under Jason Collett, who rode her to victory in the G2 Surround at Randwick on February 25.

Gum Boots A Better Option For Golden Slipper Day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Mother Nature must have taken a beating at some point in the recent history of the Sydney autumn carnival as she’s again taking out her frustrations on the already sodden tracks of the Harbour City. With rain continuing to soak the northern half of the state, track conditions are almost certain to stay in the heavy range for Saturday’s massive Golden Slipper meeting at Rosehill Gardens. As if it’s not hard enough to find a winner on a day featuring five Group 1s with more than AUD $8 million in prize money up for grabs. The Golden Slipper was first held in 1957. The inaugural winner Todman (ridden by Neville Sellwood) triumphed by eight lengths at the odds of 1-6!

Take on the Favourite

In the Slipper’s 60-year history, colts have won on 28 occasions with fillies close behind on 25 (seven geldings have taken out the race). Vancouver (2015) was the most recent of the 18 favourites who’ve emerged victorious. Last year’s winner Capitalist was the first two-year-old to sweep the Listed Breeders’ Plate, Gold Coast Magic Millions Classic, and Golden Slipper. Current favourite Houtzen also won the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast in January but the undefeated filly, which carried 63kg in her most recent victory, has drawn barrier 16 of 19. On firm going, she’d be some hope of crossing this big field and hanging on over a fiercely run 1200m. On a heavy track, we’re comfortable to take her on.

Edge with Hometown Runners

The fascinating aspect of this year’s Golden Slipper is that the bulk of the Sydney 2yos have exposed form on wet tracks in contrast to their Brisbane and Melbourne-based rivals. One such runner is #12 She Will Reign ($7 with Ladbrokes). Gary Portelli’s filly has had four career starts for three wins including victory in the Inglis Nursery at Randwick (1000m) on a heavy track (8). This daughter of Manhattan Rain found the wrong alley and trailed only Frolic on an even worse surface at Randwick in the Reisling (1200m) on March 4. We’re also staggered to find #5 Diamond Tathagata at $81 with William Hill. His only two starts have been on heavy tracks for a record of 2:1-1-0, including victory in the G2 Skyline at Randwick on February 25.

Can Hartnell Handle the Wet?

The first of the day’s G1 races is the $700,000 Ranvet Stakes. First held in 1903 as the Rawson Stakes (named in honour of former State Governor Sir Harry Holdsworth Rawson), this weight-for-age affair over 200m has attracted a field of eight runners. Punters expect an easy kill for Hartnell as he finally avoids Winx but we’re not so sure after he folded a long way out in the Chipping Norton on the bog (9) at Randwick. The bulk of the Melbourne horses haven’t sighted a wet track, so let’s take a couple of proven performers. #7 Antonio Giuseppe ($10 with Sportsbet) has a record of 6:4-1-0 on tracks worse than good, while #8 Sofia Rosa could run a cheeky race at odds ($26 on Crownbet).

Winx, and You’ll Miss it

In the remaining G1s, Winx will make it 16 in a row as a $1.24 top pick in the WFA $1,000,000 China Horse Club George Ryder over 1500m. Inference won the Randwick Guineas on a heavy (10) and makes a logical choice at $3.60 (with bet365) in the $600,000 Sky Racing Rosehill Guineas for the 3yos. The $700,000 Nathan’s Famous Hotdogs Galaxy (1100m) is arguably the toughest race of the day. #6 Redzel (an $8 pick with Luxbet) makes a convincing case based on the 3kg swing in weights after finishing runner-up to #3 English in the G2 Challenge at Randwick on a heavy (10). Carrying just 50kg, #14 Glenall ($18 with Ladbrokes) is worth a small play.