Tag: Royal Ascot odds

Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview – Saturday 22nd June

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The bookmakers were the winners on day 4 with our double on the O’Brien horses thwarted by Hillstar. Congratulations to connections of Sky Lantern after she put Just The Judge firmly in her place. Perhaps we will see the grey take on Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes? We’re still well ahead on the week but the effect of the draw is a real head-scratcher going into Saturday’s big sprints.

On Thursday night it was an established fact that it was an advantage to be drawn low but that all changed with the result of the Buckingham Palace Stakes. Low numbers never got a look in with stalls 32, 30 and 24 the first three home. Could it have simply been a question of there being more pace on the near side or did Thursday nights watering all fall on the far side of the track? We will never know.

Our ante-post wagers on the Wokingham are Duke Of Firenze (10-1) drawn 31 and Nocturn (25-1) drawn 12. The form of Nocturn was not exactly boosted by a miserable effort from Enrol today but we’ve still got good value. My main concern is whether he will continue to hang left in his races. He got away with it at Newmarket and Windsor but I’m not sure he could afford to do it here.

As it is the last day of the meeting and we’ve got funds in the bank I’m going to put up another couple of long shots. Mass Rally left me cursing when swooping to catch Nocturn on the Knavesmire but has been leniently treated by the handicapper here. Whether or not stall 6 is good I have no idea but 25-1 does not do him justice. The other is Shropshire, trained by Charlie Hills. He suffered a nightmare run at Newmarket and is just the sort to pop up in a race like this. He’s coming out of 18 so we’ll have covered most eventualities!

In the opening race I like Autumn Lily at 14-1. Her stable companion Ihtimal has been slashed in price for finishing second to today’s runaway winner Kiyoshi but I liked the attitude of Autumn Lily at Haydock and hope she can at least reach a place.

In the Hardwicke Stakes I am keen to oppose Mount Athos, not because I have anything against the horse, but simply because the race he won at Chester was hardly worthy of the name. There are some good tough horses up against him tomorrow and Ektihaam will presumably attempt to run them ragged. I like Aiken but Gosden’s horses have been shaping as though they will benefit from the run all week and Sir John Hawkwood is another tough nut to crack. I’ll side with Ektihaam.

Our Diamond Jubilee hopes rest with Society Rock and Hawkeyethenoo. I’d like to see enough rain to ease the going a fraction for Hawkeyethenoo as I’m convinced he could spring a surprise. There seems to be growing confidence in Sea Siren so I’m going to have a saver on the Australian raider.

In the penultimate race I am keen on Rye House after the way he won at York. I thought he looked a possible Ebor contender that day and I’ll be disappointed if he can’t defy a 9lb rise in the weights. You could make a decent case for Hammerfest or Blue Surf but I’m going to have an each-way on Lahaag. He did nothing wrong when second to First Mohican last time out and should make the frame for team Gosden.

Finally, class should tell in the last race as Shahwardi is way better than these on his form in Australia last winter. Admittedly his last run looks pretty awful but I can’t believe Monsieur Royer-Dupre would bring him over to Ascot half-cooked. The rest of the field are the usual mixture of non-stayers and prospective hunter chasers.

2.30 Autumn Lily 14-1 Stan James

3.05 Ektihaam 5-2 Coral

3.45 Ante-Post Hawkeyethenoo 16-1, Society Rock 9-2
Sea Siren 9-1 Coral

4.25 Ante-Post Nocturn 25-1, Duke Of Firenze 10-1
Mass Rally 25-1 Betfair
Shropshire 20-1 William Hill

5.00 Rye House 6-1 Totesport
Lahaag 11-1 Bet365

5.35 Shahwardi 7-2 Coral

Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview – Friday 21st June

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Hat’s off to a Royal winner and a 10-1 ante-post tip! My Gold Cup wagers on Estimate at 10-1 and Simenon at 16-1 could not have done any better. The later success of Remote and an unlucky second from Space Ship at 18-1 have left us over 40 points up on the week to date!

I could have done better had I included the American No Nay Never in my selections yesterday but you can’t get everything right. Three days down and two to go.

I’m afraid that Friday’s card could be a case of “After the Lord Mayor’s show” with the poorest card of the week. It opens with the Albany Stakes and I have to confess to knowing little or nothing about this lot. The Cecil horse will have a following for obvious reasons but that is built into her early quotes of around 7-2. In fact, it is difficult to get too excited about that race or the King Edward VII Stakes in which there appears to be no credible opposition to Battle Of Marengo.

The only doubt with the O’Brien horse is whether he genuinely stays a mile and a half. On form, the others are playing for places. I thought Greatwood could be a live outsider for the Derby after his first run behind Windhoek but he ran a stinker in the Dante Stakes. Rather like Highclere’s Bonfire last season, it is probably best to leave him alone until he shows something better.

The Coronation Stakes is a chance for Just The Judge to gain revenge on Sky Lantern for her narrow defeat in the 1000 Guineas. Connections felt that the challenge came too late to give their filly time to respond and she certainly won well at the Curragh. I’m confident she will beat Sky Lantern but I’m going to have an each-way interest in the supplemented Pavlosk too. She did me a favour when part of a huge treble for Sir Michael at York and they have stumped up £25k to run here.

The Wolferton Handicap at 4.25 is a real puzzle with several formerly smart performers hoping to regain their form at the Royal meeting. Labarinto would have a chance on his best form but he usually needs a run to put him straight and Dick Doughtywylie is capable of much better than he showed at Chester. Sheikhzayedroad put together some very quick fractions to come from last to first at Epsom but it was a strange race and he was running practically sideways up the straight.

The Queen’s Vase looks as though it should also go to Aidan O’Brien via Leading Light. There is no great value in his price either so I’ll double him up with Battle Of Marengo for a bit of interest.

I tipped Enrol to beat my old friend Nocturn at Newmarket and she didn’t quite catch him. The extra furlong should be perfect and she has drawn stall 1. I couldn’t support her from a high draw but stall 1 could present its own problems if they run down the centre as on Thursday. Even so, Ryan Moore is riding as well as anyone and can steer her home.

Win double: Battle Of Marengo (3.05) 5-6, Leading Light (5.00) 2-1 Coral

3.45
Just The Judge 3-1 Paddy Power
Pavlosk (each-way) 8-1 Paddy Power

5.35
Enrol (NAP) 7-1 Bet Victor

Royal Ascot Day 3 Preview – Thursday 20th June

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Rizeena came to my rescue yesterday at 7-1 to limit the damage from some disappointing performances. It looks as though the fast ground is starting to have a real impact with some quick times and some horses running well below their best.

Who would have guessed that Chigun and Thistle Bird would run so badly? As for the Royal Hunt Cup…well, for once I have to agree with the post-race reflections of Channel 4. As soon as I saw Prince Of Johanne running diagonally across to get on the “wrong” side of the course I knew my fate. Poor Richard Hughes took the same decision on the well-backed favourite Stirring Ballad and then failed to get any sort of run whatsoever.

Anyway…onwards and upwards and let’s take a look at day 3. Our ante-post involvement is on the Gold Cup with Simenon (16-1), Estimate (10-1) and Biographer (40-1). All three have tumbled in price so I’m hoping for a similar result to the Queen Anne with a couple of nice place returns at least. I haven’t seen any reason to alter my opinion on the race.

I’ve been very impressed with Richard Fahey’s runners this week. He’s managed to get two juveniles into second place and Garswood ran a good race in the Jersey Stakes in fourth. I think that’s probably as good as he is but I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t see him drop back to six furlongs next time.

I’ll have to back Eccleston at 10-1, his representative in the opener. I’m expecting No Nay Never to be very difficult to peg back but there doesn’t seem great value at 5-1.

Having picked out The Lark ante-post for the Oaks at 33-1 I am a big fan of hers for tomorrow’s Ribblesdale. Of course I know that Ascot is something of a graveyard for Epsom horses but she didn’t have too hard a race there and I think she can win this. I am a little worried about the fast ground but 5-1 is too big.

I usually like a bet in the Britannia but this year’s field has got me a bit confused. You can usually rely on Haydock’s Silver Bowl as the best trial but the first and second from this year are not wanted by the punters? Wentworth has emerged as favourite after a nightmare run at Goodwood but it may be worth remembering that it was a pretty poor event. I’m certainly not going to be tripping over myself to take 4 or 5-1 in a race like this.

There is a bit of hype about Cape Peron and I can understand why. He won with a stone in hand last time and looks destined to make up into a group horse. As with The Lark, the quick ground is a worry but I’m prepared to take the risk at 7-1.

The 5.00 race features another horse going places in John Gosden’s Remote. I quite liked Baltic Knight before Doncaster but reassessed my views after he received a six-length drubbing. Baltic Knight then landed a big gamble at York so it is pretty obvious that Remote was masquerading as a handicapper. He is pitched in against horses with proven classic form but he is expected to prove up to the task.

The last race on the card is another minefield but I’m going to pick a couple out against the field. Space Ship would appear to be handicapped out of it on the face of his Epsom run but I don’t think anything went his way that day and he looked smart at Chester. Excellent Result absolutely bolted up in his maiden and could have suddenly twigged what the game is all about. Both are available at silly prices so they should give us some each-way interest.

Eccleston 2.30 10-1 Paddy Power
The Lark 3.05 5-1 Ladbrokes
Gold Cup 3.45 Ante-Post: Estimate 10-1, Simenon 16-1, Biographer 40-1
Cape Peron 4.25 7-1 Ladbrokes
Remote 5.00 100-30 Stan James
Space Ship 5.35 18-1 Stan James
Excellent Guest 5.35 14-1 Paddy Power

Royal Ascot Day 2 Preview – Wednesday 19th June

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Well, what a cracking start to the Royal meeting! Nearly 30 points up thanks to War Command. It was nearly so much better with Aljamaaheer tipped at 33-1 and Gregorian (51-1) just collared by Declaration Of War.

I was also happy to see Mars (12-1) and Mubaraza (12-1) sneak into the frame. Once again I thought Mars was unlucky and he has got Coral Eclipse written all over him. I don’t like trying to guess the running plans of Aidan O’Brien but I’m going to break my own rule and take the 20-1 about him for that race. The picture will become clearer after the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes but that was some trial.

I can’t even remember the last time I backed a two-year-old Royal Ascot winner for the following year’s classics. But what can we make of War Command? Would I be talking through my pocket if I thought the 10-1 for the 2000 Guineas was a good bet? Probably! Even so, it’s worth re-investing a fraction of the winnings as I can’t see that price lasting long. He’s already half that price with Coral.

Our ante-post bets for day 2 rest on Prince Of Johanne at 20-1 in the Hunt Cup and Beldale Memory at 5-1 in the Queen Mary. Dance And Dance didn’t make the cut but we get refunded on him.

The card opens with the Jersey Stakes and Richard Fahey’s Garswood is fancied to win this. I tipped him for the Free Handicap but felt that the 2000 Guineas was flying a bit high as well as doubting his ability to stay a mile. This looks much more his cup of tea and two seconds for Fahey on day 1 offer plenty of encouragement.

In the same race, I like Music Master at a good each-way price. He ran a stormer to split Dundonnell and Baltic Knight at Newmarket and Henry Candy thinks a lot of him.

There are some really tough fillies in the second race with Chigun carrying the hopes of Lady Cecil. Tiger Cliff ran a great race in the Ascot Stakes but I doubt he would have beaten the winner even if he had been kept closer to the pace. It’s impossible to knock Dank or Thistle Bird and the raiders Duntle and Sarkyla make it interesting. The front three are going to be tough nuts to crack but I’m having each-way on Thistle Bird and Sarkiyla.

I haven’t entered the fray on the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes but I think The Fugue and Maxios could give the big two plenty to do tomorrow. Both can be backed at around 6-1 in the hope of arriving fast and late.

Prince Of Johanne should give us a run for our money in the Hunt Cup at 20-1. I am going to throw in Fury in first time blinkers at 16-1 as he is handicapped to win on his best form. As usual you can make out a case for most of them and I expect Trade Commissioner to run well as Gosden had some near-misses on day 1.

Beldale Memory must go well in the Queen Mary and I’m surprised she is still available at 9-2. Clive Brittain’s Rizeena is clearly above average and it would be nice to see the old boy back in the winner’s enclosure at the Royal meeting. At 7-1 she can offer good support to our main hope.

The closing handicap could go the way of French Guineas fourth Zurigha. Both French Guineas races were like a complete shambles but she ran through courageously to finish fourth. There is nothing with form to compare to that, other than possibly Waterway Run who was just behind in sixth, and she looks overpriced at 12-1. I’ll be kicking myself if Waterway Run beats her so I’ll have a saver on her at 22-1.

2.30
Garswood 5-1 Coral
Music Master 16-1 Bet365

3.05
Thistle Bird 8-1 Paddy Power
Sarkiyla 9-1 Bet Victor

3.45
The Fugue 6-1 Paddy Power
Maxios 6-1 Sportingbet

4.25
Ante-Post Prince Of Johanne 20-1
Fury 16-1 Ladbrokes

5.00
Ante-Post Beldale Memory 5-1
Rizeena 7-1 Bet365

5.35
Zurigha 12-1 Paddy Power

Waterway Run 22-1 Coral

Ante-Post
Mars 20-1 Coral Eclipse Betfair
War Command 10-1 2014 2000 Guineas

Royal Ascot Day 1 Preview – Tuesday 18th June

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The big day has finally arrived and it’s time to take on the bookies at Royal Ascot! Our ante-post portfolio isn’t looking too bad on paper. Chapter Seven remains our only outright loss after his withdrawal from the Hunt Cup but we will be refunded even if Dance And Dance doesn’t make the cut.

I’ve snapped up early prices about three runners in the opening Queen Anne Stakes with Aljamaaheer (33-1), Gregorian (51-1) and Sovereign Debt (16-1). Just one of them placed will cover us and I’m still of the opinion that Animal Kingdom is far from a certainty. However, there’s no harm in covering your back so I’m going to take up Corals enhanced odds treble on Animal Kingdom, Shea Shea and Dawn Approach at 14-1. I personally can’t see them all winning but it’s a fair insurance policy. I don’t want to be the only one crying into my beer whilst Channel 4 are telling us how the bookies have taken a beating!

I am similarly placed in the sprint with Reckless Abandon (7-1), Kingsgate Native (14-1) and Spirit Quartz (27-1) running for team Betcirca! I think the value has gone from the market leaders so I’ll just let this one run.

The third race has not gone to plan having taken 2-1 about Magician before his minor knock. He’s now out to 11-4 but O’Brien wouldn’t be running him unless he was confident he was 100%. I still think Mars will make up into a decent colt and he will benefit from Leitir Mor setting a decent gallop for Dawn Approach. I’m going to have a little each-way on Mars.

One thing about Ascot is that it is the only meeting of the year bar Cheltenham where you can get massive odds about top class horses. Take a look at the Betfair price of George Vancouver. Where else would you get 132-1 about a Breeders’ Cup winner? Yes, I know his form this season is dire but he looked a rattling good colt last year and I can’t leave him out whilst supporting the other O’Brien horses.

Hopefully we will still be going strongly by race four when they line up for the Coventry. O’Brien and Hannon have carved up this race between them in recent years with nine victories and they have three runners each (just to make things simple!). I’m going to take a stab on War Command being overpriced at 14-1 whilst I also like Riverboat Springs at 11-1. The latter covered half of the Epsom downs before realising what it was all about in the Woodcote Stakes and he will be better running in a straight line.

Everyone is hoping that Tiger Cliff can win the Ascot Stakes so that we can get another rendition of three cheers for Sir Henry. There is a very good chance of that happening but I just wonder if this one has the stamina? I liked the run of Mubaraza behind him at Newmarket and I’m hoping Justification will run well to further boost the claims of Simenon in the Gold Cup. Both horses endured terrible traffic problems at the Roodeye.

By the time we get to the closing Windsor Castle Stakes I may have enough crumpled ante-post slips to start a small bonfire but I’m hoping that isn’t the case. My tip here has to be the American raider Ogermeister. Can it really be four years since Wesley Ward’s two-year-olds were making our youngsters look like donkeys? This one won by six lengths at Belmont Park but who knows how that will compare to York or Sandown? At 7-1 it’s worth taking a chance.

Looking to later on in the week, I am going to add Biographer (40-1) to my Gold Cup team. Whilst studying the video of Tiger Cliff’s race I noticed he was tenderly handled and looked full of running at the end. He may have a bit to find on official ratings but it wouldn’t take more than 7 or 8lbs improvement to see him in the frame.

Royal Ascot Day 1

2.30 Ante-Post Aljamaaheer 33-1, Gregorian 51-1, Sovereign Debt 16-1

3.05 Ante-Post Reckless Abandon 7-1, Kingsgate Native 14-1, Spirit Quartz 27-1

3.45 Ante-Post Magician 2-1.

Mars 12-1 Bet Victor
George Vancouver 132-1 Betfair

4.25
Riverboat Springs 11-1 Boylesports
War Command 14-1 Boylesports

5.00
Justification 7-1 William Hill
Mubaraza 12-1 888Sport

5.35
Ogermeister 7-1 William Hill

Special bet – Animal Kingdom, Shea Shea, Dawn Approach 14-1 Coral

Gold Cup
Biographer 40-1 Skybet

Royal Ascot Ante-Post Betting Round Up

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Royal Ascot is only a few days away now and it’s time to check our ante-post portfolio. Of the 12 horses backed, only one has been withdrawn and all of the remainder are now trading at shorter prices.

Chapter Seven is the one to blot my copybook. I had not reckoned on him being used as a pacemaker for Dunedin after two highly encouraging runs in competitive handicaps. As yet, the bookmakers are not offering NR/No Bet but it must be imminent. Until that happens, it is best to side only with declared runners.

My Hunt Cup hopes currently rest with Prince Of Johanne but I’m going to include Dance And Dance after getting confirmation from Ed Vaughan that he is on target for the race. His ups and downs have been well documented but basically he was second here in 2011, ran his heart out in Listed races in various countries and is only now returning to his best. As his trainer says, he is better off at the weights but he is two years older. There’s still a little each-way value at 14-1 with Ladbrokes.

The opening race of the meeting has developed into a one-horse book with Animal Kingdom all the rage. There will be some long faces if he doesn’t win but I am more interested in the value in the place market. Having secured 33’s for Aljamaaheer and 51 for Gregorian I am going to take 16-1 about Sovereign Debt. I think the Lockinge form will hold up here and that will give me three excellent place chances even if the favourite does bolt up.

Having pinned my colours firmly to the Temple Stakes form in the King’s Stand, I am also going to snap up the last of the 7-1 about Reckless Abandon. I do feel that six furlongs will ultimately prove his trip but he still has a major chance and hopefully the Cowell-trained pair can grab some place money.

I am going to stick with Society Rock at 9-2 in the Diamond Jubilee. I’m on the veteran Hawkeyethenoo at 16-1 for the same race but Society Rock seems to be in his element here.

Finally, there’s a bit of 5-1 about Beldale Memory in the Queen Mary at Betfair at the moment. I thought she would be nearer 3-1 and, as she is the only two-year-old that I’ve been impressed by this season, I’m happy to add her to my portfolio.

St James’s Palace Stakes: Magician 7-4

King’s Stand: Spirit Quartz 27-1, Kingsgate Native 14-1, Reckless Abandon 7-1 Coral

Diamond Jubilee: 16-1 Hawkeyethenoo, Society Rock 9-2 William Hill

Hunt Cup: Prince Of Johanne 20-1, Chapter Seven 20-1, Dance And Dance 14-1 Ladbrokes

Gold Cup: Estimate 10-1 Simenon 16-1

Wokingham: Duke Of Firenze 10-1 Nocturn 25-1

Queen Anne: Aljamaaheer 33-1, Gregorian 51-1, Sovereign Debt 16-1 Bet Victor

Queen Mary: Beldale Memory 5-1 Betfair