Tag: RSA Chase

O’Faolains Boy has Gold Cup potential

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It may seem strange to be looking forward to the 2015 Cheltenham festival already but the rest of the jump season pales into insignificance after the four days we enjoyed last week. Or wonderful Wednesday haul of four winners left us with a profit on our Cheltenham portfolio of more than 50 points.

I’m going to re-invest the first of those on one of our winners, O’Faolains Boy. He is currently available at 20-1 for the 2015 Gold Cup and I feel this is under-estimating him, just as the bookmakers did in the wake of his Reynoldstown Chase victory.

For whatever reason, he hasn’t quite received the acclaim of previous winners of the RSA Chase. Yet, to my eyes at least, it was a top class renewal with good quality runners from Britain and Ireland. I will be amazed if we don’t see half of dozen of them winning top class races next season.

I am also influenced by the result of this year’s Gold Cup. Not only was it won by the previous year’s RSA winner for the second year running, it left the distinct impression that any one of five horses could have won the race on a different day. There is clearly room for a new talent to emerge and I see no reason why O’Faolains Boy cannot be the one.

As I mentioned when tipping him for Cheltenham, you could safely ignore his poor run at Haydock behind Taquin Du Seuil as it came at a time when the Rebecca Curtis stable was under a cloud. His Ascot victory over Many Clouds in the Reynoldstown was as good as I had seen from a staying novice all season.

Andy King’s Smad Place ran a great race in defeat and there is no reason why he cannot go on to be as successful over fences as he was over hurdles. Alan King must have been thrilled with him but I always felt that Barry Geraghty had more up his sleeve if he needed it. He acts on all types of ground and could be even better next year if he gets an un-interrupted preparation.

The bookmakers clearly feel that the Gold Cup is wide open and go 10-1 the field. I would agree with that assessment but feel that O’Faolains Boy should be much shorter than 20-1. He will do to kick off our Cheltenham portfolio 2015!

O’Faolains Boy at 20-1 Paddy Power, Skybet

Cheltenham Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Virtually all bookmakers are now offering Non-Runner – No Bet terms on all Cheltenham races. I’ve had a few days to absorb the handicap ratings for the big handicaps. I can’t remember seeing so many horses entered for so many different races at the meeting so it is still like looking for a needle in a haystack!

One of the most baffling things about the betting markets is how the bookies trim horses just for being declared a runner! We had picked out Triolo D’Alene at 40-1 for the Gold Cup weeks ago on NR/no bet terms. As soon as Henderson declared him a runner his price was slashed to 20-1. You can’t tell me that punters that didn’t want to back the horse at 40-1 (NR-no bet) are suddenly tripping over themselves to back it at 20-1?

One of my favourite races of the meeting is the County Hurdle. Not that I can remember making any money out of it recently but there’s something about the two-mile handicap hurdlers. Although I am not convinced that Splash Of Ginge is anything out of the ordinary, I did think that the fact that Irish Saint, Dell’ Arca, Cheltenian and Swing Bowler chased him home made it a decent race. I’m happy to stick with Cheltenian (14-1) and Dell’ Arca (16-1) in the ante-post list here as they are lightly-raced and not particularly ground dependent.

Moving away from the handicapc, the Champion Bumper has turned into a Willie Mullins-benefit and probably will be again this year but I was impressed with Modus and he could give us a run at 10-1. He was bred for the flat and has the useful combination of class and speed.

I suppose it is wrong to be put off by a horse falling at home but RSA Chase Ballycasey hardly inspires confidence after his weekend tumble. I think the bookmakers may have underestimated O’Faolains Boy after his Ascot victory. 16-1 seems a big price for a Reynoldstown winner and Rebecca Curtis would not be sending him there unless she rates him.

The going is drying out slowly so it may go against the proven soft ground horses. That includes Kaylif Aramis in the Coral Cup so we may pass him over for the time being.

County Hurdle – Cheltenian at 14-1 Sportingbet

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca at 16-1 Totesport, Betfred

Champion Bumper – Modus at 10-1 Bet365, Coral

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy at 16-1 Ladbrokes