Tag: Ruby Walsh

Punchestown Tuesday Preview

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The Punchestown Festival keeps National Hunt fans entertained this week with a host of Cheltenham and Aintree horses on show. Following festival form can be a recipe for disaster at this stage of the season as Punchestown but it is hard to get away from it tomorrow.

The feature race is the Champion Chase which looks wide open. Module and Somersby were no match for Sire De Grugy at the festival and will probably dominate the market. Module needed every yard of the two miles at Newbury in heavy ground to peg back Dodging Bullets and again looked short of pace at Cheltenham. His best form is over two and a half miles, although he is very closely matched with Somersby on Exeter form.

Hidden Cyclone has been on the go all winter and has been running well. He certainly wouldn’t be winning out of turn if he were to win here. I’m just favouring David Pipe’s Ballynagour here at an each-way price. He won at the festival with any amount in hand and ran a fair race at Aintree. He looked as though he would win between the last two but was outstayed after the last.

The RSA Chase form took a knock at Aintree with a disappointing run from O’Faolains Boy but I’d be inclined to put a rule through it. Four of those involved in that race turn out again for the Novice Champion Chase tomorrow including the third Morning Assembly and fourth Ballycasey. Interestingly, Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Djakadam who fell in the JLT Novices’ Chase when still in contention.

It is difficult to make a comparison between that race and the RSA, but Walsh clearly feels Djakadam will be a force over this trip and that just about tips the balance. Walsh should certainly be on the score-sheet in the Champion Novice Hurdle with Faugheen who was one of the most impressive winners of festival week. He drops back half a mile here but was always racing keenly that day and should not be inconvenienced.

Sgt Reckless stayed on to be fourth at Cheltenham and then finished runner-up to Josses Hill. He didn’t seem to find as much off the bridle as seemed likely and Faugheen should have his measure.

Faugheen 4.20 Punchestown at 8-11 Ladbrokes

Ballynagour 5.30 Punchestown at 17-2 888Sport

Djakadam 6.40 Punchestown at 11-4 Paddy Power

Thyestes Chase Preview

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The main jumping action on Thursday is over in Ireland at Gowran Park with the valuable Thyestes Chase. This race has been won in the past by Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde so has a reputation as something of a Grand National trial. On His Own won here two years ago but failed to add to the roll of honour at Aintree.

Willie Mullins was hopeful of On His Own in the National last year with Ruby Walsh on board but he faded tamely. It was a disappointing effort and he has only shown glimmers of form since, most recently when running on at the end of the Becher Chase. I’m not too sure what to make of that run because the winner Chance Du Roy ran no race at all at Haydock last weekend.

The going is certain to be on the slow side so the answer to this tricky race surely lies lower down the handicap. Jim Dreaper and Andrew Lynch are a combination to be respected and I like the look of Los Amigos. Most of these have only patchy recent form by Los Amigos appears to be still improving and adapted successfully to win over hurdles last time out.

Dreaper has admitted a slight concern over his lack of experience for a tough race like this but is hopeful that he will see out the trip. Ruby Walsh is aboard the top weight Vesper Bell but it is hard to fancy him after two failed trips across the water. He fell at the first in the Becher and then unseated his rider in the Warwick Classic.

Balnaslow may turn out to be the best of the four Mullins runners but he is closely weighted with Hunting Party on Thurles form from October. He came out on top that day by a length and a quarter but Hunting Party has a 5lbs pull and seems to have improved since. A win over this course will hold Hunting Party in good stead but he also tipped up at the first in the Paddy Power Chase.

Paul Carberry is in the saddle on Thursday and I’d imagine it would be the usual hold up tactics from the maestro. If he can get the horse safely over the first few fences and popping away in midfield, he could feature here and is attractively priced at 16-1. Trainer Dessie Hughes won here with Siegemaster in 2011 often targets this race.

The Troytown Chase winner Cootamundra has been put up 10lbs for that victory and that may prove too much Playing is on a hat-trick and acts well on this ground. He went up 11lbs after bolting up at Limerick and now a further 14lbs for winning in similar fashion at Cork. You don’t see many 11 year old horses improving so rapidly but 14-1 looks too big with BetVictor.

Paul Sweeney has put blinkers on the formerly useful Panther Claw and booked Barry Geraghty. I always tend to look at previous runnings of these big handicaps and he was third last year so could run better than of late.

I’d say the same of runner-up Tarquinius but he has looked well below his best and I’d be surprised if Gordon Elliott can get him sharp enough to win this.

Los Amigos at 8-1 Paddy Power

Playing at 14-1 BetVictor

Hunting Party at 16-1 Bet365

Grand National Day Preview

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I’m pleased to be back in profit after a successful day 2 at Aintree. I hope that a few of you took a chance on the four-timer! Both of Alan King’s hurdlers rewarded each-way support at nice prices and only Tartak let the side down when tipping up in the Topham. Now for the big one!

I’ve long been a fan of On His Own for the Grand National and I see no reason to desert him at this stage. The 10-1 on offer with William Hill still looks like a fair bet to me. He probably would have liked a bit more rain as he did seem to be slowly away last year. Having said that, he could hardly have a better pilot than Ruby Walsh and he should be able to keep him in touch. I’ve also advised a little of the 40-1 each-way on Always Waining. Trainer Peter Bowen seems a little pessimistic about his chances of staying the trip but he is well used to the hurly burly of the National course and those odds are too good to pass up.

After Nicky Henderson fired off another four winners on Friday, you have to take him seriously when he suggests that Roberto Goldback is not without a chance. Henderson is too good a trainer to run horses in the National just for the sake of it and the horse definitely has the ground in his favour. He ran sweetly for Barry Geraghty at Ascot first time out and if he is that sort of mood the 33-1 with Coral might be worth a punt.

Friday’s card was all about favourites but Saturday looks far more testing. The Maghull Novices’ Chase at 2.15 will show whether Baily Green is as good as his Arkle second to Simonsig suggests. Overturn was on a hiding to nothing that day but will find this easier track much more to his liking and Alderwood steps out of handicap company after winning the Grand Annual. Whilst all three have obvious chances, the better value bet may be to take a chance on Sire De Grugy at 8-1. He was a decent hurdler but has always had the scope to make a chaser and, unlike his rivals, does not come here after a hard race at the festival.

The Grade 1 John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle over three miles puts the World Hurdle form under the spotlight with Solwhit, Celestial Halo and Smad Place meeting again. I expect the placings to be confirmed but I am more interested in Alan King’s Medinas, winner of the Coral Cup at the festival. He may be built like a pony but he has the heart of a lion and defied 11st 10lb at the festival under a great ride from Wayne Hutchinson. With Smad Place being the stable number one, Richard Johnson steps in for the ride and I’m hopeful that he can make it into the first three. Odds of 14-1 seems terrific each-way value. I also have a healthy respect for African Gold but he looks like a chaser in the making and may find this course a bit sharp.

On His Own 10-1 William Hill
Always Waining 40-1 Paddy Power
Roberto Goldback 33-1 Coral
Sire De Grugy 8-1 Bet365
Medinas 14-1 Paddy Power

Grand National Week 2013 – A Few Early Pointers

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Having spent much of the last week shovelling snow just north of the border, it is hard to believe that they are actually watering the course at Aintree ahead of this week’s Grand National meeting! The entire jumping season to date seems to have been run on soft or heavy ground and it is slightly worrying that we could even have good ground by Thursday. That can sometimes turn the form on its head but you cannot ignore Cheltenham form at this meeting.

The Grand National is obviously the highlight of the week but there is a cracking supporting cast. The Aintree Hurdle is shaping up to be an exceptional race. Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars have battled out the finish for the past two seasons but they are up against stiff opposition this week. Countrywide Flame finished third in the Champion Hurdle with Zarkandar fourth and Grandouet falling when still going well under Barry Geraghty. The final ingredient is supplied by impressive Neptune Novices’ Hurdle winner The New One. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is convinced that his horse will be a leading Champion Hurdle contender next year and he has been made favourite to win here.

I have been a fan of Countrywide Flame for some time and I thought he put in a great effort behind Hurricane Fly last time. As much as I respect the opposition, I think odds of around 5-1 are an insult to John Quinn’s gelding and I fancy him to gain a well deserved success.

Sprinter Sacre is due to run over 2 1/2 miles in the Melling Chase and is up against two smart performers in Cue Card and Flemenstar. I don’t have any doubts about Sprinter Sacre proving equally effective over this distance but his odds reflect his superiority over his rivals. Unless the bookies offer some generous odds on winning distances later in the week, I think this will be a race to watch rather than bet on.

One of the banker bets of the meeting must surely be Silviniaco Conti after his desperately unlucky fall in the Gold Cup. Ruby Walsh found the seven-year-old travelling almost too well throughout the race and he must surely have given Bobs Worth something to think about if he had stood up. He flew around the Mildmay Course last season and The Betfred Bowl looks his for the taking.

Big priced winners of The Lincoln and The Irish National are timely reminders of what we could be up against when betting on the big race on Saturday. On His Own looks likely to go off favourite having won over hurdles on his only start since falling last year. Having watched the re-run of last year’s race, there is no denying that he appeared to be going as well as anything when he crashed out at Bechers second time around. My only slight worry was that he seemed to get some way behind early on. He probably wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much but is a worthy favourite and I’m taking him to give the punters something to cheer about.

I have plenty of respect for Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu (2nd, 3rd and 4th) but they all seem to be high enough in the weights. I was most impressed with Imperial Commander’s comeback run in the Argento Chase and it must have been incredibly frustrating for connections to miss out on his run in the Gold Cup. He adds a touch of class to the race whilst Always Waining looks overpriced at 40-1 for a horse that runs a stone better at Liverpool than anywhere else. Trainer Peter Bowen is keeping an eye on the weather and could yet send him for the Topham but most bookmakers are now offering NR/no bet on the National.

Countrywide Flame 5-1 with Paddy Power
Silviniaco Conti Evens with Paddy Power
On His Own 7-1 with Bet365
Always Waining 40-1 with Paddy Power