Tag: rugby tips

Time for Title Contenders to Show Mettle in Super Rugby

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Crusaders ($1.08) v Force ($8)

The Crusaders have made a habit of leaving their victory pursuits late, of late. Come from behind wins in all of their first four games, sees them just a couple of bonus points behind the Chiefs in the New Zealand conference. Leaving things late this week is unlikely to be a problem against the struggling Force. The Force are coming off a bye and will undoubtedly struggle in Christchurch. Crusaders 13+.

Rebels ($3.15) v Waratahs ($1.36)

The Rebels are conceding an average of 50 points a game, which is surprisingly, only slightly more than their fifth round opponents, the pre-tournament fancied, Waratahs. The Waratahs lost to the Brumbies at home last week, compounding their losing streak to three. In a battle of two pretty poor sides, we’re going to give it to the Tahs, by 1-12.

Blues ($1.15) v Bulls ($5.50)

The Bulls head to New Zealand with only a solitary win against their name this year. But their chances of adding to that are aided by the fact that the Blues have been equally as poor this season – it could be a low scoring bore fest. Blues 1-12 with little confidence in either side, but some in the individual ability of Jan Serfontein – so good last week.

Brumbies ($2.15) v Highlanders ($1.70)

The leaders of the Australian conference were impressive last week against the Waratahs, getting their first away win of the season through a double to Henry Speight and an impressive turn from Tevita Kuridrani. The Highlanders on the other side have badly missed Ben Smith. While the other Smith – Aaron – looks woefully out of form and a shadow of the player he was before last year’s controversy. Brumbies 13+.

Sunwolves ($11) v Stormers ($1.04)

It’s a measure of the Sunwolves struggles that they couldn’t beat a side that was down to 14 men for almost the entire second half last week. They did manage to make some progress against the reduced Bulls side and had a handy lead going into the last ten, but they subsequently gave it up. Stormers 13+.

Kings ($12.50) v Lions ($1.03)

Last year’s beaten finalists, the Lions, kicked their season into gear with a comprehensive victory over the Reds. Scoring seven tries at their Ellis Park fortress was a warning shot across the bow of the luckless Kings franchise that has just one win this season. Lions 1-12.

Cheetahs ($2.36) v Sharks ($1.60)

This could be the game of the round. Two conference contenders needing to gain some ground on the surprise Argentina packages. Hoping the better Cheetahs outfit turns up – not round 4’s version – the one that got hammered in Buenos Aires. Sharks 1-12.

Jaguares ($1.17) v Reds ($5.10)

Top of the South African conference and so impressive in dismantling the Cheetahs last week, the Jaguares are the real deal. Sure, their franchise name is hard to say, but you’ll get better at it because they are serious contenders and will be hanging around at the business end of the season – giving us all plenty of time to perfect it. Jaguares 13+.

The Hurricanes to Face Toughest Test Yet

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Chiefs ($1.80) v Hurricanes ($2)

The defending champions Hurricanes face their sternest test of the new season when they travel to Hamilton to face the Chiefs. While the Hurricanes have enjoyed comfortable wins against the Sunwolves and the Rebels (scoring over 70 points in each) the Chiefs have had to work harder for wins against the Blues and the Highlanders. The bookies have them as favourites on account of their tougher lead in games, but we’ll tip the Canes in a close one, 1-12.

Brumbies ($1.41) v Force ($2.94)

The much fancied Brumbies find themselves winless after two rounds and already behind the eight ball in their Conference standings. However, their favourites this weekend against a very weak looking Rebels outfit that have already conceded 127 points in their two games. Don’t expect a great spectacle, but expect a Brumbies win by 13+.

Blues ($1.71) v Highlanders ($2.14)

The Blues have shown more promise in 2017 than they have in any of their last four Super Rugby campaigns and arguably have the most exciting player in the competition in their team. Reiko Ioane is an absolute beast and should be the All Blacks outside centre this year. While question marks remain over Ihaia West at first five, and Steven Luatua missing through suspension, the Blues should have enough quality over the park to win by 1-12.

Reds ($3.04) v Crusaders ($1.37)

Scott Robertson’s coaching career is off to an excellent start. The former All Black flanker has seen his side carry over the Todd Blackadder-era professionalism and record two nice wins thus far. Last week’s comeback effort against the Highlanders was remarkable and should give them the belief to beat a Reds side that has won one and lost one in two close games this season. The Crusaders will win by 13+, but will they also score 26 points like the Red’s opponents have in the first two rounds.

Kings ($9.30) v Stormers ($1.06)

The Kings have arguably had the easiest start to the competition with games against relative newbies the Sunwolves and the Jaguares; games which they split with a win and a loss. They haven’t looked overly impressive in either and thus the bookmakers have given them zero chances. The Stormers are also 1-1 but a much better side that should run out winners comfortably. Stormers 13+.

Cheetahs ($1.01) v Sunwolves ($19)

The travel must be torture for the team from Japan. Sharing their games between the four continents and even sharing some of their home games with neighbours. It started to show last year and it’s looking like it could be a problem for them again this year. They also have major problems with their defence too – they conceded 83 points to the Hurricanes in 62 minutes in game one. They could surprise a few teams later in the season (Kings and Rebels we’re looking at you), but they won’t beat the Cheetahs. Cheetahs 13+.

Sharks ($1.57) v Waratahs ($2.40)

This might end up being the closest game of the round even though Kings Parkin Durban is one of the toughest away grounds to win at. Both teams are 1-1, with the Sharks accounting themselves well on their Australian tour, while the Waratahs have been slow out of the blocks but have considerable quality across the board. Sharks 1-12.

Jaguares ($2.38) v Lions ($1.59)

The Lions lead the South African Conference but will need to be at their best to get the better of an Argentinian outfit that seems to be adapting to the rigours of Super Rugby better than the other new side, the Sunwolves. Buenos Aires is a tough place to play, so we’re giving it to the home side by 1-12.

Global Tens Rugby Betting Guide

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After the controversy (in New Zealand anyway) surrounding the Wellington Sevens (poor crowd) and the NRL Nines (poor crowd), another reduced rugby tournament was hoping to fly under the radar of controversy. However, it hasn’t played out that way for the Global Tens being held in Brisbane this weekend. Instead, the promoters have been criticised for the lack of international players (particularly All Blacks) on show.

Despite the negative publicity, the Tens shapes as an excellent day out for punters. Let’s take a look at the teams involved and their chances:

Blue Bulls

Odds: $17

Players to Watch: The Bulls bring a raw but talented side to Brisbane, led by the superb Springbok flanker Jacques Potgeiter. But don’t expect to recognise many other names in the team sheet.

Chances: Getting out of a pool that includes the highly fancied Brumbies and New Zealand’s Highlanders is going to be pretty tricky. Will not be a factor.

Blues

Odds: $13

Players to Watch: Auckland has called upon former All Black Rene Ranger to lead the side. He’s joined by current ABs outside back, George Moala, and former Kiwis rugby league international Matt Duffie.

Chances: While they have some experience in the faster format thanks to their Sevens recruits, we feel as though they lack the x-factor to win close games (sorry Rene, your x-factor is too old). Don’t discount, but maybe just short of the top tier.

Brumbies

Odds: $10

Players to Watch: The Brumbies have gone with just the eight Wallabies (or ex-Wallabies) in their side. Tevita Kuridrani is the best of them, but Henry Speight and Scott Sio are also handy additions. Head coach, Stephen Larkham is also suiting up as a wildcard pick with former dual international, Andrew Walker.

Chances: Part of a trio of Australian sides all given the same chances by the bookies, the Brumbies have a talented side and could be the dark horses in the competition. Keep in your consideration.

Chiefs

Odds: $7

Players to Watch: Liam Messam, Hikawera Elliott, Brad Weber all have AB experience while Tim Nanai-Williams should thrive in the format.

Chances: Look very good on paper and could feature in the finals of the fledgeling tournament. A well-structured squad and set to be expertly led by double Commonwealth Games gold medalist, Messam.

Crusaders

Odds: $7

Players to Watch: Scott Robertson has got current AB Seta Tamanivalu at his disposal, who will play alongside a largely inexperienced setup. There will however, be plenty of interest in one signing, former Wallaby, Digby Ioane.

Chances: We don’t have them as high up on the list of contenders as some do, but should still make the knockout phases.

Highlanders

Odds: $9

Players to Watch: The challenge is not to highlight players to watch, it’s to find players that you recognise, especially in the backline. Tevita Li and Matt Faddes are speed merchants, they should entertain, even if you haven’t heard of them.

Chances: At $9 the bookies give them a chance but we don’t. They’ll struggle against all.

Hurricanes

Odds: $5.50

Players to Watch: Nehe Milner-Skudder and Cory Jane are rugby royalty and could set alight the festival tournament. While Jane’s reaching the end of his career, Milner-Skudder is just getting started (albeit returning from injury).

Chances: Rightly the strong favourites and will be there or thereabouts come Sunday.

Melbourne Rebels

Odds: $21

Players to Watch: The Rebels have five Wallabies but none of them particularly good. More pleasing is the inclusion of Twitter expert and former Australian vice-captain Morgan Turinui.

Chances: About as good as their chances in the regular Super Rugby season – they were eighth of ten in the Australasian conference last year.

RC Toulonnais (Toulon)

Odds: $11

Players to Watch: Australian’s Drew Mitchell and James O’Connor return to lead a side that also features pacific powerhouses, Alesana Tuilaga and Josua Tuisova and Japan test fullback Ayumu Goromaru.

Chances: Higher than most are giving them credit for if they can overcome the travel.

Reds

Odds: $10

Players to Watch: Chris Latham was born for this format, but just ten years too late. The legendary fullback is the wildcard inclusion and will help players like Karmichael Hunt, rising sensation Taniela Tupou (Tongan Thor) and key new NRL recruit Lachlan Maranta adjust to the game.

Chances: Not bad at all. At their Suncorp home, the Reds should definitely factor into your picks.

Tama Samoa

Odds: $26

Players to Watch: The Tama Samoa squad features eight Manu Samoa players and two from the Manu Samoa Sevens, including Sevens captain Tila Mealoi and try scoring machine Samoa Toloa

Chances: Mainly in the tournament for experience rather than for competitiveness, but might surprise some teams with their Athleticism which is well suited for a Sevens style of game.

Waratahs

Odds: $10

Players to Watch: Australia’s best Israel Falou headlines a Waratahs side that the bookies are giving half a chance. The lanky ball runner is ideally suited to the open fields Tens and will call upon his league and AFL experience in ripping teams apart.

Chances: They’ll make the finals but could be too reliant on Falou. Worth a punt.

Western Force

Odds: $26

Players to Watch: Wallabies Tatafu Polota-Nau and Luke Morahan are the mainstays, while Brisbane fans will get a first look at NRL sensation Curtis Rona as he makes his Force debut. Isi Naisarani is one to watch too.

Chances: Next to none. Even club legend Mat Hodgson won’t pull them out of the depths of pool play.

Wild Knights

Odds: $51

Players to Watch: Former Wallabies playmaker Berrick Barnes and emerging talent Ben Gunter are the overseas stars, and try-scoring machine Akihito Yamada is the local star.

Chances: Robbie Dean’s Wild Knights side are the rank outsiders with bookmakers giving them no chance of imitating their national team’s epic run during the 2015 World Cup (they beat South Africa remember). We agree with the bookies.

England Favourites to WhiteWash Australia; Remain Unbeaten.

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Australia head to Twickenham after a dour performance against Ireland going down 27-24, which also ended their Grand Slam hopes. England looks to extend their winning streak to 13 after closing out Argentina 27-14 in a spiteful match.

England rolled Australia at home 3-0 during the June tour, so there is plenty of incentive for both teams to win and there is no love lost between coaches Eddie Jones and Michael Chieka, who have been at it in the media since June. However, Australia has struggled in 2016, and during this tour faded late into the 2nd half, which was truly evident against France and Ireland. Australia failed to put a patched up Ireland to the sword turning over too much ball in the way of errors and poor protection at the breakdown, and failing to execute backline play.

England remains unbeaten and is willing to win ugly. On top of injuries and suspension, coach Eddie Jones will need to replace battering ram #8 Billy Vunipola, who suffered a knee injury against Argentina. However, most of the team from their last fixture will be available.

Heading into this fixture, England is clear favourites and it’s hard to look past a team playing with confidence and thriving under coach Eddie Jones, who has moulded exciting combinations amongst his squad. Australia will need to front up and ensure someone takes control of the backline if they want to penetrate a rushing English defensive line. This encounter will be one game too much for the Australians; the English should come home easily 16-20 points and will want to make a statement with the upcoming 6 nations.

Teams

England

XV: M Brown; M Yarde; J Joseph, O Farrell; J May; G Ford; B Youngs; M Vunipola; D Hartley (capt); D Cole; C Lawes; G Kruis; C Robshaw;T Wood; N Hughes.

Replacements: J George; J Marler; K Sinckler; C Ewels; T Harrison; D Care; B Te’o; H Slade.

Australia

XV: Israel Folau; Sefanaia Naivalu; Tevita Kuridrani; Reece Hodge; Dane Haylett-Petty; Bernard Foley; Nick Phipps; Lopeti Timani; Michael Hooper; David Pocock; Rob Simmons; Kane Douglas; Sekope Kepu; Stephen Moore (capt); Scott Sio.

Reserves: Tolu Latu; James Slipper; Tom Robertson; Dean Mumm; Sean McMahon; Nick Frisby; Quade Cooper; Henry Speight.

Odds

Australia: $4.00 at Betfair.

England: $1.29 at Unibet.

Prediction

It’s an old fashioned head and heart dilemma this week. The $4 is such a tempting prospect for a heart longing for a nice betting win, and to see England’s unbeaten run end. But the head says this is an England team that beat Australia 3-0 in June and should be too strong. Okay, you’re right head, England to remain unbeaten against Australia this year.

Kiwis Looking to End Poor Run of Form

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In a first round Four Nations clash to savour, two newly appointed national coaches go head-to-head in Huddersfield.

However, the coaches couldn’t be any more different. England’s coach, Wayne Bennett, is one of Rugby League’s super coaches. A veteran of State of Origin, NRL and Super League, the Hall of Famer has won more NRL titles than any other coach (7). And while he’s only recently started working with England, he has more Rugby League IP than any one else on the planet. The transition should be seamless.

On the other hand, new Kiwis coach David Kidwell, hasn’t yet coached a club side in a head coaching capacity. While he’s worked as an assistant with the Storm and the Tigers in the NRL, his pedigree doesn’t reach anywhere near the heights of Bennet’s.

Kidwell will therefore need a huge effort from his captain Jesse Bromwich and the rest of the leadership group to overcome a series loss to England the last time the two sides met. Especially considering the form England bring into the match after they destroyed France 40-6 in last week’s warm up.

Here’s how the teams shape up for the Round 1 match up, and our prediction as to what to expect:

Teams

New Zealand: Jordan Kahu; Jason Nightingale, Solomone Kata, Shaun Kenny- Dowall, Jordan Rapana; Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson; Jesse Bromwich (capt), Issac Luke, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Kevin Proctor, Tohu Harris, Jason Taumalolo. Bench: Lewis Brown, Martin Taupau, Manu Ma’u, Adam Blair.

England: John Bateman, George Burgess, Sam Burgess, Tom Burgess, Daryl Clark, Mike Cooper, Liam Farrell, Luke Gale, James Graham, Ryan Hall, Chris Hill, Josh Hodgson, Jonny Lomax, Jermaine McGillvary, Dan Sarginson, Kallum Watkins, Elliott Whitehead, Gareth Widdop, George Williams.

Team Selection Talking Points

New Zealand: No changes from the team that lost to Australia in Perth, as Kidwell keeps the faith. He’ll be looking for more out of his big forward pack at both ends of the field. He obviously needs them to make metres, but he also needs them to protect Shaun Johnson on defence -Johnson made 34 tackles against the Kangaroos, that’s too many for your chief playmaker. It will be interesting to see how Waerea-Hargreaves goes. He’s under a huge amount of pressure to keep his place after a disappointing stint last time out.

England: Bennett has made a number of changes to the side he used against France, notably, significantly shuffling the look of his interchange. He is no longer carrying three backs on the bench in order to accommodate more forward firepower. Luke Gale has been given the start in the number 7 number and will partner Widdop. Gale’s been rewarded for stellar club form that has seen him win the Albert Goldthorpe Medal for the last two years playing for Castleford. Utility Dan Sarginson makes his return after a two year hiatus.

Form

New Zealand: L, L, L, W, L, W (all against either Australia or England)

England: W, W, L, W, W, L (all against either New Zealand or France)

Odds

New Zealand: $1.80 at Luxbet and Betfair

England: $2.23 at Unibet

Prediction and Tips

Having earlier predicted an Australia / England Four Nations final, it would be counter-intuitive to predict anything other than an England win here. Games played in the Northern Hemisphere are usually close encounters and we’re not expecting anything different. With the home crowd support squeaking England home, the $6.50 offered by Sportsbet for an England win by 6-10 looks like great money.