The NBA Playoffs are upon us and we present a final analysis of Western contenders and pretenders. Who will you bank on to win?
April 10, 2015
One of the most unpredictable NBA regular seasons on record is about to conclude with an unprecedented number of real contenders, all with a genuine chance of NBA glory.
This never happens in the NBA, where the annual champion almost always comes from an elite class of two, maybe three teams. This year, there is no such elite class and instead, we have at least eight contenders that we have to take seriously.
For those looking to lay a bet, this is a huge opportunity. Your best payouts come from teams ranked at the 4-10 range, only those teams almost never win. This season, those teams have as good a chance as they have ever had in the history of NBA basketball.
Today, in our final look at NBA Futures betting for the NBA Championship, we take a look at this year’s Western Conference contenders.
The Golden State Warriors:
They were the undisputed best team this regular season and by a distance. They burst out the gates by winning 22 of their first 25 games and somehow, they never let up that pace. The Golden State Warriors will finish the regular season with a franchise record for wins and will also have submitted one of the ten best individual seasons in NBA history.
They have it all. A historically deadly shooting backcourt with a pair of All-Stars that play imperious, beautiful basketball. A team-first identity where no player, not even MVP-to-be Stephen Curry, is bigger than the team. They have a ludicrously dominant +10 average point differential (their average margin of victory), more than twice as large as the next team.
And they are about to finish their second straight season as the NBA’s top defense, which, strangely, people seem not to want to acknowledge about these Warriors.
So, after submitting a historic NBA season, why are we not stating outright that these Warriors will win it all? Teams that play this well over the course of two-plus seasons usually skate into the NBA Finals and are often favoured heavily by bookies. But the odds favourite is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have won 13 less games in a far weaker conference. What gives?
As good as these Warriors are, we are reluctant to afford them quite the same elite status as other teams who have been as dominant as they have been this season. There are two reasons for this: first, this NBA season is a freak show of depth, especially in the brutal West. Golden State is really, really good, but when the #7 and #8 seed is potentially a real contender (this never happens), then their path to the Finals could also be historically difficult.
The second reason is mental toughness. Golden State are known for being a highly cerebral, soft-spoken and classy team, quietly confident in their qualities. So, what happens when opponents push their buttons or adopt a highly physical approach in the Playoffs? With the exception of Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut, the rest of these Warriors are perceived as a little “soft.” Can they take the mental anguish of championship basketball?
Playoff basketball exposes little flaws in profound ways. Now, this is not to say the Warriors are soft and they’ll be exposed in the postseason. After all, it’s not their first playoff rodeo, and they have some experience at the top level.
Rather, it means we don’t know how tough they can become. This is the first time in the history of the Golden State Warriors that they are the NBA’s top dog. This is the first time Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have ever carried a massive target on their backs.
Simply stated, we don’t know their ceiling for mental toughness quite yet. That’s the only thing that makes me pause before laying a bet on these Warriors winning it all.
Odds Picture: At 3-1 odds, they rank second right behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. At first glance, this looks like a travesty as the Warriors have been a far more consistent and dominant team. But then, we picture Cleveland’s pleasant stroll through the terrible Eastern Conference and there is no doubt they’ll be in the Finals. With the Warriors, every single team they meet in the playoffs will be a contender, and that’s a bloodbath in the making.
Final Verdict: Look, teams with a +10 point differential almost always win the title, so laying a bet on the Warriors is as good as betting on anybody. They have the MVP-to-be in Steph Curry, a great defense and unbelievable shooting and flexibility.
We just have to decide how mentally tough the Warriors CAN BECOME. It’s their last obstacle. If they can grow into the role and responsibility of being the league’s best team, the Warriors will be champions. If they stray, show growing pains, or fail to elevate their mental toughness when tested, then they’ll be back next year for another shot.
The San Antonio Spurs:
Our defending champions. These old war dogs have been doing it at the top level for so long. Tim Duncan won his first championship in his second year in the league, way back in 1999 with Gregg Popovich as his coach.
Last June, the Spurs destroyed the favoured Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. It was the fifth championship for Duncan and Popovich in the last 14 seasons. That is without question, an NBA dynasty.
And yet, not once in all that time have the San Antonio Spurs managed to defend their title. They have never won two championships back-to-back.
Normally, this wouldn’t be much of a criticism. But when we compare and examine all the other historically great champions of the past thirty years, we find that they all have one thing the Spurs do not have: consecutive championships.
Let’s take a look at all the repeat champions dating back to 1987:
LA Lakers: champions in ’87, ‘88
Detroit Pistons: champions in ’89, ‘90
Chicago Bulls: champions in ’91, ’92, ‘93
Houston Rockets: champions in ’94, ‘95
Chicago Bulls: champions in ’96, ’97, ‘98
LA Lakers: champions in ’00, ’01, ‘02
LA Lakers: champions in ’09, ‘10
Miami Heat: champions in ’12, ‘13
That is a whopping number of great teams who won consecutive titles. In fact, the Spurs are the only team in the last 30 years that have won more than one NBA championship without ever having successfully defended their title.
They say that the only thing harder than winning an NBA championship is keeping it. As great and as consistently excellent the Spurs have been in the last 15 years, they never managed to win two in a row, despite the tremendous number of repeat champions we’ve seen in the modern NBA era.
Odds Picture: True to form, the Spurs start slow and play better and better as the playoffs approach. This is reflected in their 4-1 odds (it was 7-1 last week), which is a decent bet but not exactly a juicy prospect, given their historical aversion to defending their titles.
Final Verdict: They’re one year older and for the Spurs, that means they’re EVEN older now. Father time is undefeated and the Spurs will be no different, but at least they gave the old goat all he could handle. However, if they couldn’t repeat when Tim Duncan was in his prime despite having four chances to do so, how are they supposed to do that now?
But make no mistake: they’ve done nothing but prove doubters wrong for a long time, and no other team has half the playoff experience that they have. History is against them repeating, but you dismiss the San Antonio Spurs at your own peril.
The Memphis Grizzlies:
We just don’t know quite what to expect from the Grizzlies in this upcoming postseason. They are the NBA’s last link to a past age of NBA basketball that relies on traditional size and slow-down, methodical post up play. Teams simply do not play basketball like the Grizzlies do, employing two traditional big men in an age where many teams trot out three guards and no centers in their daily lineups.
The game has changed, but somehow the Grizzlies just submitted their finest season in franchise history despite playing a brand of basketball that is close to becoming extinct.
The Grizzlies are a complete package and they fear no one. Their greatest vulnerability is not being able to defend smaller, mobile lineups. But on the flip side, who exactly is going to defend Memphis’s beastly big man duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol?
It’s a delicate balancing act for the Grizzlies. Their style goes against the established grain of modern basketball, which means mismatches are going to be the story in their playoff run. Everything depends on whether they get the better deal in those mismatches.
Odds Picture: At around 15-1 odds, Memphis is a properly good punt with a very decent potential payout. They are far from the favourites, but they are absolutely a leading contender in the West and built for postseason play.
Final Verdict: We like the Grizzlies precisely because of their old fashioned ways, and for good reason: playoff basketball is about a slower pace. It’s about executing in the half court, and making the best of your advantages as teams lock down on the defensive end. That’s when having two All-Star big men who both demand a double team really begins to show its worth. The Grizzlies are going to be difficult to beat in the playoffs.
The Houston Rockets:
Yes, they are a real contender. But nope, they’re not winning the NBA Championship and that is taking into account the unbelievable season superstar James Harden has had. If it wasn’t for Stephen Curry, Harden would certainly be this year’s MVP. No other star player has done more with less around him.
That’s well and good for the regular season, but we cannot expect James Harden to carry his team through the postseason in the same manner. It doesn’t work that way in the playoffs. James Harden is going to need all the help he can get.
Which brings us to Dwight Howard, one of the more overrated big men in the NBA now that his legs have deserted him. His numbers have dipped at a dramatic level season after season, and he is miles away from being the athletic freak and one-man defense that he was in 2011.
Dominant Dwight Howard is dead and gone. What’s left is a shadow of his former self, and that’s a problem because no player has blindly relied on his athleticism alone like Howard has. When his legs left him, all of his fundamental flaws and lack of offensive game became even more glaring.
Dwight Howard never bothered to learn how to play the game without solely relying on his world-class athleticism. Now that he is old (and looks it), it leaves us with the current version of Dwight Howard: merely a good NBA center, no more, no less.
The Houston Rockets are not winning the NBA Championship with half of Dwight Howard. Harden is a great, great player, but he can’t win an NBA title on his own.
Odds Picture: The Rockets sit at around 16-1 odds and they are only getting juicier by the minute. You can find 24-1 odds for a Rockets championship at several sportsbooks, which is nothing more than bait from handicappers. Other bets have a better chance than Houston.
Final Verdict: Save your money for one of the other Western Conference dark horses because the Rockets are not winning anything this year.
The LA Clippers:
By far the most hated team in the league, the Clippers are nonetheless, a fine squad and a dark horse contender. They whine, they act entitled, they seem too cool for school on certain days and their desire can be questioned. But they have a good team, a championship coach, and they have Chris Paul.
In Paul, the Clippers arguably have the NBA’s best pure point guard and a fearless superstar in his own right. However, Paul is also known as a shouter, a relentless taskmaster that demands perfection from his team. He’s old school in this respect, and had Paul played 30 years ago in a tougher era of NBA basketball, he would have received a far more favourable response from his teammates back then.
In today’s NBA, star players like Blake Griffin resent Paul’s tough approach instead of using it to fuel a personal excellence. Blake Griffin has always had an uneasy relationship to Paul, and his numbers rise and dip inconsistently from season to season. Griffin is good, but he absolutely lacks mental toughness and a true desire to win. This is reflected in his wavering statistics and his rapidly declining rebound numbers, a statistic that reflects desire more than any other.
Their center, Deandre Jordan, is a fearsome rebounder and shot blocker. However, he has ZERO offensive game and is one of the worst free throw shooters in the history of professional basketball. This means he will not be on the floor in key late possessions in the playoffs for fear of being fouled and forced to shoot free throws. With Deandre Jordan, there ain’t nothing free about them.
Combine this with Griffin’s Jekyll and Hyde approach to basketball and we see that there is not much about the Clippers that you can consistently count on. If they play at peak form for three weeks, they have as good a chance as any to make the Finals.
If they are their usual inconsistent selves? They could just as easily be out in round one. Watch the finger pointing begin then.
Odds Picture: At 15-1 odds, the Clippers are worth a bet simply because they are really good when everything is running smoothly. They are a real dark horse, and their odds reflect that fairly.
Final Verdict: The unpredictability of the Clippers is part of their charm. It also means that if they get on the same page and play for each other, they have a real chance to win. Coach Doc Rivers is known for uniting a team and getting them ready for the playoffs, so we expect them to do well. But Doc also knows that he has never had to work harder to get his team hungry, united and ready to rumble. The Clippers are a coin flip.
Honourable Mentions:
The Dallas Mavericks:
Before they traded for the mercurial Rajon Rondo, they were one the NBA’s elite offensive teams. Rondo was supposed to take that product and make it truly great. Instead, Rondo has played terribly and Dallas has lost more games after the trade than before it.
They have incredible talent, an incredible coach, and in Dirk Nowitzki, one of the all-time greats. But I do not see a team that is still struggling for an identity on the eve of the playoffs as a credible bet to win it all. That doesn’t happen, and the Rajon Rondo gamble may well define this season in the worst possible way. Dallas is out.
The OKC Thunder:
They should have been the West’s top dog, being hugely experienced, having two of the NBA’s five best players, and a hunger for greatness.
Instead, they might not even make the playoffs after injuries and an inept head coach have combined to sink their season. Even if OKC makes the playoffs, it will be without reigning MVP Kevin Durant and their defensive All-Star, Serge Ibaka. That’s like bringing a pillow to a knife fight.
Russell Westbrook has been breath-taking in their absence. But even Westbrook who is part man, part pure will, cannot carry them to a title by himself. This has been, without question, the saddest storyline this season.
