Sha Tin Hong Kong Racing Preview

Our resident Hong Kong racing expert has put together his race by race previews for Sundays Sha Tin card. If you’re based in Europe you can place bets via Bet365 via their international section.

Most interestingly for European horse racing fans is Dundonell running in race 3. This former Roger Charlton trained individual won a Group 3 and listed contest in the UK before being sold off to Hong Kong, as well as a creditable 4th in the Breeders Cup Turf in 2012.

Race 1 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 10 Ah Bo – P
Value Selection:          –    No. 1 Blizzard – T
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 7 One More World – P and No 4 Lean Journey

Race 2 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 2 Mellifuent
Value Selection:          –    No. 1 Good Luck Boy – T
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 5 Faithful Boy and No 13 Excitable Boy / No 8 Timely Arrived

Race 3 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 1 Dundonnell – T
Value Selection:          –    No. 4 Tour De Force
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 7 Guru’s Dream and No 5 Kabayan

Race 4 –Top Pick:                      –    No. 1 Jun Ju – T
Value Selection:          –    No. 9 Everyone’s Choice – T
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 5 Kids And Win and No 2 King On Earth – B

Race 5 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 9 King Of Patch
Value Selection:          –    No. 1 Health Wise
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 2 Born To Win and No 5 Supreme Profit

Race 6 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 2 Dashing Fellow – T
Value Selection:          –    No. 1 Demokles
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 3 Unique Joyous and No 12 O’Socoole

Race 7 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 5 System Overload – P
Value Selection:          –    No. 10 Top Act – P
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 6 Industrailist Way – T- P and No 11 So Caffe / No 4 Level Player – P

Race 8 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 1 Divine Calling – T
Value Selection:          –    No. 10 Gaint Treasure – T
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 3 Beauty Only and No 8 Appinati – P

Race 9 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 8 Radiand Bunny – T
Value Selection:          –    No. 2 Big Four
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 12 Thunder Flyer – P and No 10 Short Squeeze – P

Race 10 – Top Pick:                      –    No. 7 Got Fly – T – P
Value Selection:          –    No. 1 Packing Llaregyb – T
Exotics Inclusions:     –    No. 5 Ashkiy
r – T and No 2 Winning Leader – P

International meeting in Hong Kong

It has been billed as The Greatest Show On Turf and I have to agree it will be a sensational day at Sha Tin race course tomorrow Sunday 14 December 2014 with the best Jockeys from around the world and some of the best horses ever assembled in one meet at this current moment.

It is going to be a sensational days racing and we have no less than four International Group One races. I will be attempting to put the best form to you for those races to give you the best possible insight and enjoy Hong Kong racing at its best as it really is apart from so many countries a very special and well presented horse racing event not only on International Day but every weekend throughout the year with the exception of about 8 weeks when we have the off season due to the weather.

Current conditions out of Hong Kong is that it will be a fine and dry day, mostly sunny with a bit of cloud later in the day and a top temperature of 19 degrees. The wind will be from the north east at about 20 Km/h and gusting up to 40Km/h late in the day. This will create a direct head wind down the straight and will assist on paced runners. The track is currently rated as Good but I suspect it will be Good to Firm and it will be perfect for racing and there should be some good times recorded.

So we have four very special Group I’s so let’s get started

Race 4: The Longines Hong Kong Vase 2400m Group One

The selections are No 1 Flintshire (7/4 Skybet) with the value being No 8 Willie Cazals (10/1 Skybet)and the exotic inclusions are No 5 Red Cadeaux (6/1 Skybet) and No 12 Snow Sky (6/1 Skybet).

Awesome race. Flintshire This is his best distance and has to be a very strong consideration today. This UK four year old does look one of the better overseas chances today. Has Max Guyon who is one of the best hoops to come out of France in the saddle. Drawn well and should get a nice smother in the running and certainly looks suited at set weights. Willie Cazals deserves a serious look here as he has run some cracking races over this distance all be it at lesser class races but not by much. Appears to have certainly been set for this with two runs this time in over the 1800m and his last start over the 2000m and he has been closing off very well on all occasions. Just have to throw him in with a good chance to break his group duck. Should get a nice smother in the running and retains Douglas Whyte in the saddle. You cannot leave out Red Cadeaux as this evergreen stayer just loves to race and has performed extremely well everytime he has raced at Sha Tin. He just thrives on racing and is in sparkling form once again and will be ready to go once again today. Has to be a real chance at set weights. Snow Sky is a lightly raced three year old colt and is certainly an Improving type who does appear to be getting better with racing. Gets into this with a very nice weight and has very solid UK form. Drawn well to get a nice smother in the running as he does appear to like to sit and sprint. May go well today if he does not get too far back in the running but that should not be an issue in a field of this size.

Race 5: The Longines Hong Kong Sprint 1200m Group One

The selections are: No 8 Peniaphobia (15/2 Skybet) from No 9 Aerovolicity(11/2 Coral) and add Lucky Nine and No 5 Buffering for the exotics.

This is quality and looks to be a sensational race. Peniaphobia may very well be the real deal here as he has certainly caught them off guard on a couple of occasions this season in Hong Kong. Recorded a very nice win over this distance at G2 last start and has never been off the mark since arriving in Hong Kong only being out of a place on one occasion and just keeps on improving. Drawn well and looks a real chance on recent form with Douglas Whyte in the saddle. Aerovolicity was knocked from pillar to post last start and you can certainly forget that run. Previous starts have been extremely good and does appeal as a bit of a chance today. Has to be at each way odds here but can surprise if he get the right trial. Lucky Nine Cannot be left out of this race. Loves Sha Tin and is a champion sprinter. Has had mucus problems throughout his career but his track work recently has been first class indicating that he is ready to race today. He has came up with a very nice draw as well in gate four which will also entice his followers. Always a serious threat at set weights and Brett Prebble knows him like the back of his hand. Of the others well Sterling City on his best form would certainly go well here today as he has came up with a great draw in gate three but has not really measured up this time in and you would have to take on trust. Smart Volatility and Golden Harvest also have chances but drawn very wide. The Best of the overseas runners do look this way. Buffering They said he should have came over last year and I am inclined to agree as he was in his best career form. Now a seven year old he has taken time to wind up this time in but is now peaking and looks right in this up to his neck. Drawn ok in gate 8 and will be taken forward as usual and be the one they have to run down. Looked a picture of health coming off the plane and has settled in well. Will certainly give this a huge shake as I really do feel he will be suited by this track and the conditions of the day. The headwind down the straight will be an asset as he is expected to get around the bend and make them chase. At current odds he goes in as my BOLTER of the meet as if he is on song he can certainly cause an upset here. But what is evident is that even though a long way out from start time he is drifting and is certainly a huge quote compared to his ability so I would be certainly be keeping a big watch on the markets with this one as there may be an issue behind the scenes.

Race 7: The Longines Hong Kong Mile 1600m Group One

Selections are No 1 Able Friend  (11/10 Skybet) from No 5 Ambitious Dragon (16/1 Bet365) as the value and add No 2 Gold-Fun and No 6 Fiero / No 3 Glorious Days for the exotics.

Able Friend Looks a very good chance once again today and the only query is the wide gate but there is a long stretch before the first bend and should have time to get into position before reaching that point. The pace up front should not be too solid and may very well develop into a sprint home which may also suit. He has been placed at this class from gate 14 previously at this class and distance under set weights as is the situation today and is in sparkling form with a very solid win over this distance at Sha Tin last start at Group II and retains Joao Moreia in the saddle. Ambitious Dragon New Zealand breed gelding who has been a champion race horse in Hong Kong. Lightly raced but had issues and was off the scene for 18 months but has came back as an eight year old and he has shown that he still has the ability to mix it with the best and has been placed on both occasions since resuming. Once at HKG2 and the other at G2 and both over this distance. Should get a nice run in transit and has to come under consideration today at set weights and he gets the gun UK hoop in Ryan Moore in the saddle who is himself in awesome form. Gold-Fun has to be an inclusion today the way he has been going. Rarely runs a bad race and has been right at the top of his game once again this season. Ran a very nice 2nd behind Able Friend last start and should get a nice run in transit from gate six. Looks a real chance at set weights with Douglas Whyte retaining the ride once again. Fiero is one of Japan’s best milers and ran a super race in the Group One Championship Mile in Japan and was just piped on that occasion. Has one of Japan’s best Jockeys in the saddle in Yuichi Fukunaga in the saddle. Should get a nice run in transit and will be putting in over the concluding stages. Glorious Days has a very good record at this class and distance and cannot be ruled out even though he goes in first up today as he has won first up at this class and distance previously. Certain exotic inclusion. If the hot pot gets rolled here the exotics should pay well.

Race 8: The Longines Hong Kong Cup 2000m Group One

Selections are No 3 Military Attack(5/1 Ladbrokes) from No 5 California Memory (25/1 Skybet) as the value and add No 2 Designs On Rome and No 8 Farraaj and No 4 Blazing Speed for the exotics.

Military Attack previous group I winner over this distance and has begun this season in fine style as well. Just the two starts and a bit of a surprise to see him get up first up over the 1600m but he is a class horse and looks to be  in very good form this time in as well. Ran a very nice lead up race over this distance at G2 last start and was only beaten by a head on that occasion. Very similar field in a lot of ways to that race and he is expected to get a nice trail in the running today. Zac Purton retains the ride and has to go in with a very good hope here. California Memory has had a similar preparation to Designs On Rome and has been stepping up in distance and ran a very nice closing race to finish 4th last start over this distance at this track. Only 3/4 lengths off the winner on that occasion and should be peaking today. Will be back but will be running on and if there is a chance he will take it at nice odds. Designs On Rome has had three runs in this time up and has been stepping up in distance with every run. Looked ready last start and closed off very well over this distance at G2 and even though he finished 5th he was only 3/4 of a length from the winner on that occasion in a blanket finish. Should be right at the top of his game for today’s race and certainly appears to have been set for this race today. Should get a nice smother in the running and retains Joao Moreia in the saddle. Farraaj Irish breed 5 year old who certainly has class and is an international player as he has recently travelled to the southern hemisphere searching to pick up a prestigious Group Race. Performed well in Australia and in particular in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes when he was placed 3rd on that occasion over the 2000m in a top class field. Will get the ground to suite today and has the very talented UK based Italian hoop in Andrea Atzeni in the saddle. Blazing Speed has the ability to sneak under the radar on occasions and looks a nice exotic inclusion. Just got up last start at G2 over this distance and certainly has appeal at set weights once again today.

 

Form Provided By:

The Sheik Of Sha Tin

For the full form Guide go to:-https://www.dropbox.com/s/4pbnadu2lqenqxz/Sha%20Tin%2014%20141214.html?dl=0

Hong Kong Cup Preview

Bookmakers Sportingbet are featuring the four main races from Sha Tin this weekend and they are offering some great value bets on the European runners.

I have already previewed the prospects of The Fugue (Vase) and Moonlight Cloud (Mile) and am confident that they will give us a great run for our money. I am concerned about the prospect of fast ground for Moonlight Cloud but her class may see her through.

The Hong Kong Cup sets a similar poser with Cirrus Des Aigles clearly the best horse in the race but not certain to reproduce his best form on a fast surface. Sportingbet offer him at 5-1 which is very tempting! I would love to see him win this at the age of seven but I am haunted by his performance at Ascot in the King George where he patently hated the fast ground.

Normally I wouldn’t put Grandeur in the same league as Cirrus Des Aigles but the going can be a great leveller and the grey absolutely bounces off fast ground. Five of his seven victories have been on a fast surface and he comes here on the back of a light campaign.

He looked to have a leading chance in the Arlington Million this year before drawn in the car park. He made late headway into seventh place and can be rated a lot better than that. He went on to win nicely at Goodwood and Jeremy Noseda has had this race in mind for him all season. He is priced as high as 40-1 with Sportingbet and must have an each-way chance.

According to the bookies, the Sprint is going to be won by Lord Kanaloa. Admittedly he has an impressive wins to runs ratio and will be tough to beat, especially as the Europeans have never won the sprint here. However, I think that the two Irish horses are overpriced on their best form.

Sole Power won at Royal Ascot and Slade Power won on Champions’ day. Both of them like to hear their hooves rattle but the fact remains that Sole Power has yet to win beyond five furlongs. For that reason, I prefer the claims of Slade Power at a generous 14-1 with BetVictor.

Sportingbet also seem to be underestimating the claims of Galileo Rock in the Vase. They have priced him at 9-1 whilst he is a top priced 6-1 in the UK. The colt was third in the Epsom Derby, second in the Irish Derby and third in the St Leger. He is lightly raced and loves fast ground so I could see him sneaking into the frame.

Hong Kong Vase – Galileo Rock (each-way) 9-1 Sportingbet

Hong Kong Sprint – Slade Power (each-way) 14-1 BetVictor

Hong Kong Cup – Grandeur (each-way) 40-1 Sportingbet