India usher in a new era of their test history with a swirl of praise and rumours for their retired guardian Mahendra Singh Dhoni. The conjecture on the “whys” of Dhoni’s retirement will continue for some time, so the task of silencing them comes down to new captain Virat Kohli and the rest of his team. Many, including their opponents chief firebrand Mitchell Johnson, are tipping India to have a more aggressive edge under Kohli. An edge that would certainly help the self belief within the team, but one that also comes with a risk of recklessness.
Australia have less to ponder. They may consider using Ashton Agar in a second spinner / allrounder role, and they may carefully watch the performance of Shane Watson as to determine his suitability for their next important test cricket assignment – the Ashes – given his continue run of mediocrity.
Sydney traditionally takes more spin than any other local ground, so the teams could spring some surprises at the toss, but the placid nature of most of the pitches this series will help alleviate the Johnson threat (much to his dismay) and should see plenty of runs scored.
The Last Time These Two Met
The MCG encounter had all the bluster and bravado of a pre-bout boxing weigh in, but unfortunately lacked the knock out punches as both teams lost their nerve on the final day. Amongst all the aggression and agitation the Australians dominated much of the game through their superior lower order batting and India’s inability to build enough pressure with the ball. Not for the first time in the series Steven Smith and Virat Kohli were the stars with the bat, in this one they lead their teams against each other for the first time.
The Teams
Australia (likely): 1 Chris Rogers, 2 David Warner, 3 Shane Watson, 4 Steven Smith (capt), 5 Shaun Marsh, 6 Joe Burns, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Ryan Harris, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Nathan Lyon.
Johnson is injured and could be replaced by Mitchell Starc, Ashton Agar, or Peter Siddle. We believe they’ll use Starc, who gets the opportunity to once again revive a stop start test career. He’s been good in the Big Bash League so at the very least he brings with him some good form.
India (likely): 1 M Vijay, 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 Virat Kohli (capt), 5 Ajinkya Rahane, 6 Suresh Raina/KL Rahul, 7 Wriddhiman Saha (wk), 8 R Ashwin, 9 Bhuvneshwar Kumar/Umesh Yadav, 10 Varun Aaron, 11 Ishant Sharma.
India could be tempted to give KL Rahul another go after his terrible debut and may even consider him at the top of the order instead of Dhawan. If not, Raina will come in at six. Rumours are he has practiced extensively in the Sydney nets. Bhuvneshwar Kumar could also come into the mix if he is over his injury concerns; Umesh Yada’s position is the most under threat if he does. Wriddhiman Saha will take the gloves from MS Dhoni if he recovers from illness. And lastly, Varun Aaron has returned to Australia after a funeral back home and should play instead of Mohammad Shami.
The Key Players
Shane Watson – For all of his talent Watson should have more than four test hundreds. From 103 test innings’ in a nine year career the return is underwhelming for such a genuine match winner. As much it would be nice to feature a key player at the top of their game and delivering the hundreds the public deserve, unfortunately, we’re picking Watson as a key player to save his test career. He’s been steady with the ball in the series, but if the 33-year-old wants to book an Ashes ticket next year, he needs runs.
Wriddhiman Saha – After waiting patiently in the wings of an alright shadow, perhaps the most influential shadow in Indian cricket, Saha gets the opportunity to let his keeping do the talking. One stumping chance aside, Saha gloved the ball nicely in Adelaide in his only start of the test series thus far, but he’s also going to play an important role with the bat. Coming in at 7 it is crucial the 30-year-old manages to bat some time and forge a partnership with whichever set batsman he joins. Otherwise the tail will continue their house of cards impression.
The Odds*
Australia – $1.70
Draw – $3.50
India – $5
*International Cricket odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.au.
The Prediction
Australia 3-0. I cannot see any other result in this one. Even Melbourne’s draw was tight. India only have three players on form (Vijay, Rahane, Kohli, with maybe a case for Ashwin) and it’s too much to ask for them to get the better of a quality Australia attack time and time again. Form also means they are due failures.
If you fancy it, consider Warner and Watson for top 3 runscorers. They were both playing in the SCG game where Phillip Hughes was fatally injured. They’ll be looking to pay a special tribute in this match.
