Tag: Shotgun Paddy

Midlands Grand National Preview

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The Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter has been dominated by David Pipe in recent seasons. He has won the last four runnings but has not been able to prepare one for the race this year. Tony McCoy won this race on Synchronised for Jonjo O’Neill in 2010 and that horse went on to win the Gold Cup.

It has been an emotional week for the champion jockey, winning the Ryanair on Uxizandre for Alan King but not quite able to sign off on a winning note with Ned Buntline finishing fourth. There was disappointment for his legion of supporters in the Gold Cup with Carlingford Lough but they will be out to recoup losses here with Catching On.

The seven-year-old won his last race over hurdles last year off a mark of 113 at Wetherby but looks a good deal better than that over fences. He fell on his chasing debut at Market Rasen in November and was given a confidence-boosting run round Wetherby next time. He stayed on well to win over three miles at Huntingdon last month and was put up 9lbs to 124 last time at Exeter.

Wayne Hutchinson was in the saddle that day and always had matters under control. He led two from home and eased clear to win by nine lengths from Coolking. He incurs only a 6lbs penalty and it seems safe to assume that the handicapper will double that for future races. This race is really testing but he didn’t look like stopping over three and three-quarter miles in heavy ground at Exeter. He could develop into the gamble of the day as punters bid to put off those post-Cheltenham blues!

Top weight Shotgun Paddy has done us a favour or two in the past but he will do well to lug 11st 12lb to victory in these conditions. Emma Lavelle’s gelding was third to Hawkes Point in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January with the winner wearing blinkers for the first time. He had looked really sluggish in the Welsh National in December and he could be a threat if the blinds are as effective this time.

Any Irish raiders are usually worth a second look in this race and Jim Dreaper sends Goonyella across the Irish Sea. The gelding has disappointed at Chepstow and Aintree in the past but looked to be on the way back when third to Gold Cup runner-up Djakadam at Gowran Park in the Thyestes Chase.

Catching On 3.50 Uttoxeter @4-1 William Hill

Horse Racing Preview January 10th

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A nice double on the all-weather at Lingfield on Friday (Don’t Be and Sabre Rock, both tipped at 9-4) paid over 10-1 to set us up nicely for the weekend.

Channel 4 cameras are at Kempton and Warwick for some good quality National Hunt racing, although winners may be hard to find. Nicky Henderson made fools of ante-post punters by pulling Dawalan out of the Lanzarote Hurdle with Barry Geraghty now switching to Hammersly Lake. I have not seen any explanation in the media but I’ve gone back to the race for a second look and believe Saffron Wells could give us a run for our money.

He has got in here on a light weight after running a cracker at Newbury when trying to concede almost a stone to Polamco. That horse is an improving stayer and the pair were separated by the Paul Nicholls-trained Morito Du Berlais, a good yard stick in staying handicaps this season. Saffron Wells like to get his toe in and will have perfect conditions on Saturday.

I had considered supporting Heath Hunter but I see that Tom Scudamore has elected to ride Dell’ Arca instead. Heath Hunter showed up well for a long way at Haydock last time but the application of first time blinkers suggests that David Pipe thinks he has his own ideas about the game.

Kilcooley has been hammered by the handicapper for his 23-length win at Haydock and I have more regard for Tea For Two, the mount of Lizzie Kelly. The gelding won with plenty in hand at Towcester and does not look harshly treated for his handicap debut.

Shotgun Paddy was our midweek selection for the Warwick Classic Chase as he bids to repeat last year’s victory. He has to carry top weight of 11st 12lb so it is difficult to be confident in such a testing race.

This is a big year for Godolphin after a poor season in 2014. Charlie Appleby already has a number of his string in action on the all-weather and it could be worth noting his runners at Lingfield on Saturday. Magical Effect looks a ready-made winner in the 12.20 after finishing second at Wolverhampton in October.

The son of New Approach can get off the mark here while Turning Times should make it a double in the handicap at 3.10. The daughter of Pivotal is a bit of a rarity in that she is a roan racing in the Godolphin blue. She won her maiden here in August after a couple of decent efforts at Kempton.

Saffron Wells 2.40 Kempton @12-1 Paddy Power

Shotgun Paddy 3.35 Warwick @9-1

Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3

Magical Effect 12.10 Lingfield

Turning Times 3.10 Lingfield @15-8 Paddy Power

Warwick Classic Chase Preview

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The big steeplechase this weekend is the Warwick Classic Chase, due off at 3.35 on Saturday. The race is over three miles and five furlongs and the going is expected to be very testing.

Shotgun Paddy did this column a good turn last year and bids for a repeat win under top weight of 11st 12lb. On the face of it, he has a stiff task but he is actually racing off only a 2lbs higher mark than last season.

Emma Lavelle’s eight-year-old can get very low at some of his fences but he was able to get away with ploughing through the last fence before beating Carruthers by six lengths. The runner-up ran a cracker that day but is surely getting a little long in the tooth for a competitive race such as this.

Shotgun Paddy came within a quarter of a length of winning at the Cheltenham Festival last March when just failing to catch Midnight Prayer.  Lavelle had no hesitation in nominating the Welsh National as his early season target but everything went wrong at Chepstow. He lost his position early on and then slithered on landing over the second fence. Jockey Leighton Aspell pulled him up before the seventh fence when it was clear that he was not going to get involved.

Daryl Jacob takes over in the saddle on Saturday and he remains a very promising young chaser. The fences do not take a great deal of jumping around here and he looks good each-way value at 8-1.

The early favourite is the novice chaser Return Spring, trained by Philip Hobbs. He was useful over hurdles last season, winning at Cheltenham in November. This will be only the fourth chase of his career after finishing third to Kings Palace last time. His jumping was a bit sketchy that day, although he does have a similar profile to Shotgun Paddy from a year ago.

West End Rocker is now thirteen years of age but won at Lingfield in December. He is up 4lbs and Cheltenham winner Benbane Head carries an 8lbs penalty. Hawkes Point was fancied for the Welsh National after finishing second in the race in 2013 but was under pressure a long way from home and was eventually pulled up. He is difficult to fancy on that evidence and I shall stick with Shotgun Paddy in the hope that he can defy top weight.

Shotgun Paddy @8-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Midnight Prayer can take Chepstow marathon

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The Coral Welsh Grand National is one of my favourite races of the National Hunt season. The roll of honour includes names like Burrough Hill Lad, Bonanza Boy, Carvill’s Hill, Riverside Boy, Master Oats and Earth Summit.

It is well established as a trial for the Grand National with more recent winners including Bindaree and Silver Birch plus Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronized. There are the occasional shock winners, notably Dream Alliance in 2009 and Mountainous last year.

Mountainous is back again attempting a repeat for Richard Lee but may struggle to confirm the form with runner-up Hawkes Point. The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old ran the race of his life when going under by just a head and will have been sharpened up by his run here at the start of the month. He is racing off just a 2lbs higher mark this time and will have been aimed at this race for some time.

I had Shotgun Paddy in mind for this race after watching him slog his way to victory at Warwick last season. He made a couple of costly errors when runner-up to Midnight Prayer at the Cheltenham festival but it is the increase in the weights that has put me off his chances. He must now carry 11st 12lb which is a daunting prospect for such an inexperienced chaser.

Alan King’s Midnight Prayer had a length and a quarter to spare that day and is as tough as old boots. The Hennessy Gold Cup always looked likely to prove a little too hot for him but he jumped well before fading in the home straight. He is 8lbs better off with Shotgun Paddy and that has to give him a leading chance. He looks great each-way value at around 11-1.

Monbeg Dude won here in 2013 ran an eye-catching race in the Hennessy. He stayed on well in the closing stages to finish fourth behind Many Clouds. He has a touch of class having won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last December and finished a respectable seventh in the Grand National. The worry for his supporters is the weight as he is up 18lbs in the handicap since his win in this race.

Benvolio gave 3lbs and a two-length beating to Midnight Prayer when the two met at Newbury last year and is 5lbs better off with the King runner. He also holds Gas Line Boy on that form and ran well when fourth behind Court By Surprise at Wincanton in November. He does not have that much chasing experience but makes more appeal than David Pipe’s Amigo who was only seventh here a year ago.

Midnight Prayer @11-1 32Red

Benvolio @14-1 Coral

Each-way ¼ odds 1,2,3,4

Warwick Saturday Preview

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Earlier this week I previewed the Warwick Classic Chase and picked out Shotgun Paddy with a saver on Any Currency. There does not seem to have been a great amount of business on the race so far as the bookies are still going 7-1 the field.

I you haven’t got involved yet, the 8-1 about Shotgun Paddy looks tempting. His stamina in the heavy ground is the unknown factor but he still looks the horse with the most progressive profile here. Any Currency can still be supported at 25-1 but only he will know whether he is in the mood on Saturday. He is not in the “Mad Moose” category but he looks as though he needs a bit of kidology.

I am going to add Royale Knight at 11-1 (each-way) as I’m concerned that the going will prove too testing for several of these. If you saw Royale Knight’s latest win, his jockey was looking between his legs for dangers all the way up the straight. He has gone up for that win and races from out of the handicap but Brendan Powell in the saddle is a bonus and I can see him running well.

The Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle at 3.00 could go the way of Deputy Dan. He runs in the same colours as Puffin Billy and thank goodness that horse survived a bout of colic recently. It is hoped that Puffin Billy will return as a novice chaser next term but Oliver Sherwood looks to have a ready-made replacement in Deputy Dan.

When he was beaten by Champagne West here in December it looked no more than an average novice event but the winner has since gone on to land a big gamble in a handicap. Deputy Dan then came out and trounced his rivals in the mud at Chepstow on Welsh National day. He will certainly have similar conditions tomorrow and rates a good bet at 4-1.

You have to respect Rathvinden from the Mullins stable and he is the obvious danger. Masters Hill was probably flattered by his second to Kings Parade at Cheltenham but holds Potters Cross on that form. Killala Quay and Creepy have both won races this season but I’m optimistic that Deputy Dan can win again in his favoured ground.

The Pertemps qualifier sees African Gold return to hurdling after a couple of disastrous runs over fences. Last season he looked the sort of horse that wanted a fence so I won’t be rushing to take the 4 or 5-1 about him defying top weight here. I’m going to take a chance on Drop Out Joe handing the heavy ground at 9-1. He was unlucky to lose out in a photo finish last time and has a rounded action that suggests he will go on this surface. We shall soon find out!

Drop Out Joe at 9-1 BetVictor

Deputy Dan at 4-1 Bet365

Royale Knight at 11-1 Boylesports