Tag: Shutthefrontdoor

Grand National 2015 – Final field and ratings

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There were no withdrawals from the top forty at the final declaration stage for Saturday’s Aintree Grand National. That means no place in the field for the David Pipe trained duo, The Package and Broadway Buffalo. Unless there are any late jockey changes, Katie Walsh will not get the chance to complete the Irish/English Grand National double.

Here are the final forty with our star ratings from 1 to 5 and the best prices available.

Lord Windermere ***

The winner of the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup but pulled up this year on unfavourable ground. Has the right conditions here but will surely be anchored by his weight. 40-1 Bet365

Many Clouds ***

Won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and took his chance in the Gold Cup, finishing sixth. Leighton Aspell bids to follow up last year’s win on Pineau De Re but this one also has plenty of weight. 33-1 William Hill

Unioniste ***

Runs in the same colours as 2012 winner Neptune Collonges but does not look likely to get the soft ground that he loves. 33-1 Sportingbet

Rocky Creek *****

A very impressive winner at Kempton in February and looks capable of improving on his fifth place from last year. 10-1 Ladbrokes

First Lieutenant **

Trainer Mouse Morris had two horses in the frame in the Irish National on Monday and hopes are high for Nina Carberry’s mount. Stamina may be the problem here as his only three-mile win came on the Mildmay course here. 33-1 Sportingbet

Balthazar King *****

Runner-up last year to Pineau De Re and missed the Cheltenham festival to go straight for the National. Jockey Richard Johnson is still trying to win the race after 18 attempts. 10-1 Bet365

Shutthefrontdoor ****

Bidding to give Tony McCoy a fairytale send-off. He won the Irish National last year but Jonjo O’Neill would like to have been able to get one more race into him this season. 15-2 Sportingbet

Pineau De Re ****

Trying to emulate Red Rum by winning back-to-back Grand Nationals but is now 8lbs higher in the handicap. Daryl Jacob takes over in the saddle with Leighton Aspell claimed for Many Clouds. 25-1 Ladbrokes

Ballycasey ***

Ruby Walsh won on Papillion and Hedgehunter but Ballycasey still has a lot to prove. Very light on experience for the hurly-burly of the Grand National. 40-1 Skybet

Spring Heeled *****

Stable companion of Lord Windermere and a winner at Cheltenham last year. Nick Scholfield was third on Teaforthree in 2013 and fancies his chances of improving on that here. 22-1 William Hill

Rebel Rebellion ***

Won veterans’ race at Newbury last month and does not look the pick of the four Nicholls runners. Stamina could be an issue for this one. 66-1 Sportingbet

Dolatulo **

The winner of the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby in December but has been well beaten over hurdles since. Warren Greatrex enjoyed his first Cheltenham festival victory last month but it’s difficult to see him adding a Grand National with this one. 66-1 Sportingbet

Mon Parrain **

He was runner-up to Always Waining in the Topham Chase way back in 2011 but that was about as good it as it got. Will be a first National ride for 17-year-old Sean Bowen who has ridden two trebles in the last seven days. 50-1 Coral

Carlito Brigante NON-RUNNER

Night In Milan ***

Won the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster last season but missed the cut for the National. He looks the sort to be up with the pace in the early stages but may struggle on the second circuit. 33-1 Ladbrokes

Rubi Light **

Has won his last two starts over shorter distances at Thurles and Wexford. Was at his peak back in 2012 and it will be a surprise if he stays the marathon journey. 100-1 Coral

The Druids Nephew ****

Won a big handicap at the Cheltenham festival for Neil Mulholland who has booked Aidan Coleman to replace the injured Barry Geraghty. Cheltenham festival winners generally have a poor record here but could he buck the trend? 14-1 Paddy Power

Cause Of Causes *****

Gordon Elliott won with Silver Birch in 2007 and has a good each-way chance with Cause Of Causes. He won over four miles at Cheltenham last time but this is his first sight of the National fences. 18-1 Bet365

Godsmejudge ****

Won the Scottish National in 2013 and finished second in the same race last year. He has been very disappointing this season but would have a great chance on his best form. 22-1 Skybet

Al Co ****

Won the Scottish National at 40-1 last season and Denis O’Regan takes over in the saddle from the injured Jamie Moore. Has been brought along quietly for this race and connections are optimistic. 25-1 Ladbrokes

Monbeg Dude ***

A respectable seventh last year and a past winner of the Welsh National at Chepstow. Disappointing in his trial at Cheltenham and most of his best form has been on soft ground. 40-1 BetVictor

Corrin Wood **

One of two runners for Donald McCain who won with Ballabriggs in 2011. Has struggled to recapture his novice chasing form. 80-1 Sportingbet

The Rainbow Hunter **

Has unseated his rider in the past two Grand Nationals and pulled up on his only run this year. 66-1 BetVictor

Saint Are ***

Finished ninth here in 2013 and was third in the Becher Chase in December. Warmed up for this with a minor victory at Catterick. 33-1 Bet365

Across The Bay **

Was going well in the lead when carried across the track by a loose horse last year. That was a long way from the finish but will surely be up with the pace again this year. 50-1 Paddy Power

Tranquil Sea *

Past his prime at thirteen years of age and held by Soll on Newbury form. 100-1 BetVictor

Oscar Time **

The oldest horse in the field at fourteen and placed in two previous Nationals. Would need to re-write the record books to win at his age. 50-1 Bet365

Bob Ford *

Won the West Wales National at Ffos Las in terrible ground and not going to get his conditions here. 100-1 BetVictor

Super Duty **

Was a useful novice with Donald McCain but has shown nothing so far for Ian Williams. 80-1 Sportingbet

Wyck Hill **

Was bought by JP McManus for the 2013 National but lost his form. Repaid some of the investment by winning the Eider Chase last year for David Bridgwater. 66-1 Sportingbet

Gas Line Boy *

Stable companion of Balthazar King but not in the same league and has been hit hammered by the handicapper for a win at Haydock in November. 100-1 Paddy Power

Chance Du Roy ***

One of three runners for Philip Hobbs and a regular visitor to Liverpool. He is one of the most experienced runners over these fences and should put in a clear round without quite having the pace to win it. 40-1 William Hill

Portrait King **

Won the Eider Chase in 2012 but has dropped down the handicap since and looks past his prime. 80-1 Sportingbet

Owega Star *

Peter Fahey’s eight-year-old was well beaten at Naas last month and looks out of his depth here. 100-1 Sportingbet

River Choice *

A rare French raider but little to suggest that he will do anything other than make up the numbers. 150-1 Sportingbet

Court By Surprise ***

Emma Lavelle is bidding to become the fourth woman to train a Grand National winner and this is her first runner in the race.  Was awarded the race at Wincanton last time but capable of putting in a clear round. 50-1 Coral

Alvarado ***

The Rucker family have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals and Alvarado has the responsibility of making it seven. Paul Moloney will try to pop him round safely and worry about getting a place on the second circuit. 20-1 Paddy Power

Soll ***

David Pipe’s only runner as he bids to follow up his victory with Comply Or Die in 2008. He was seventh in 2013 when trained by Jo Hughes and has won both of his races since joining Pipe. 22-1 Betway

Ely Brown *

He was off the track for nearly year after picking up an injury and surely lacks the experience for this race. 100-1 BetVictor

Royale Knight **

Scraping in at number forty, Royale Knight is a stable companion of Pineau De Re but that is probably the best thing that you can say about his chances here. 33-1 Ladbrokes

Grand National Blog – Shutthefrontdoor 8-1 top price

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Day 2 of Aintree was safely negotiated with a small profit courtesy of Theinval (tipped at 11-1) and Saphir Du Rheu (7-4). Hopes of a third winner bit the dust when Alpha Des Obeaux (18-1) crashed at the final flight in the 4.40 race.

The feature race was the Melling Chase at 3.25 but it turned into a procession as Don Cossack stormed clear to win by 26 lengths from Cue Card and Johns Spirit. AP has now collected a major prize on the first two days but the one he really wants is the National itself at 4.15 on Saturday.

The Bookmakers are bracing themselves for a predicted flood of sentimental support for McCoy on Saturday. Various figures have been floated between £30million and £50million, should Shutthefrontdoor give McCoy the fairytale send-off to his career. On Friday evening, some bookmakers had eased the favourite out to 8-1 but I would expect his SP to be closer to 5-1.

It was slightly worrying to see the general mayhem in the Topham Chase with only ten of the thirty runners completing the course. I am not sure whether the quick ground has anything to do with it but I am not yet aware of any fatalities. Bless The Wings made a mistake at the eighth fence which knocked him out of contention but that was a rare setback in a terrific week for Gordon Elliott. Hopefully his good fortune will continue with our 33-1 ante-post tip on Cause Of Causes.

Paul Nicholls will also be feeling full of confidence about his four runners after Saphir Du Rheu finally got his act together over fences. The talented grey was runner-up in the World Hurdle last time out but Nicholls has always believed that he has the potential to win a Gold Cup. He should be an exciting prospect to look forward to next season when he takes on the Mullins battalions.

Carlito Brigante was a late withdrawal from the National due to lameness, unfortunately just too late for a reserve to take his place. 9am was the official deadline and you have to wonder whether this could be extended next year.

The bookmakers are rolling out the Grand National offers but here is our ante-post book and the current best prices available.

Shutthefrontdoor 20-1 Best price now 8-1 Ladbrokes

Monbeg Dude 33-1 Best price now 50-1 Bet365

Spring Heeled 33-1 Best price now 25-1 William Hill

Cause Of Causes 33-1 Best price now 20-1 William Hill

Grand National Blog – Going favours Spring Heeled

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The Grand National meeting at Aintree gets under way on Thursday and the excitement is already building towards Saturday’s big race.

If you have been following our regular posts, you’ll know that we have been putting together an ante-post portfolio on the race. The ground seems to be drying out with the warm spell over Easter and that is good news for Spring Heeled, tipped here at 33-1 on 4th February. All has gone well with his preparation and Nick Scholfield takes the ride.

Cause Of Causes chased him home at Cheltenham last year and was added to our list at 33-1 after winning at this year’s festival. He has almost halved in price and Paul Carberry is expected to hunt him around on the first circuit and hope to creep into the race. If you are a fan of Tony McCoy, we added Shutthefrontdoor at 20-1 in anticipation of the champion jockey seeking a glorious send-off.

Our only other investment so far was on Monbeg Dude at 33-1 and we were disappointed with him in his latest trial. He would probably prefer softer ground but got round last year in seventh and connections are still to take their chance.

All of the leading bookmakers are now offering non-runner – no bet on the Grand National. There are also some enhanced place terms on offer with BetVictor paying each-way down to sixth place. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral and Totesport are sticking rigidly to the first four places so far but this may change with pressure form their rivals.

Royale Knight is currently the last horse guaranteed a run so anything below him in the list is relying on some late withdrawals. These include the David Pipe duo of The Package and Broadway Buffalo. The former is a veteran of past Nationals and won well at Cheltenham while Katie Walsh is desperately hoping that Broadway Buffalo can sneak in. She won the Irish Grand National on Monday but looks like missing out on Saturday’s race.

Whereas Cheltenham brings the best from Ireland and Britain together for the first time, Aintree tends to revolve around the festival form. There are smaller fields and (usually) Cheltenham form stands up pretty well. We have previewed day 1 separately with selections for all seven races.

Ante-post

Spring Heeled @33-1

Cause Of Causes @33-1

Monbeg Dude @33-1

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Grand National 2015 – Aintree News Update

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The Aintree Grand National is less than two weeks away now and the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on Tony McCoy’s expected mount, Shutthefrontdoor. We forecast this over a month ago and recommended taking the 20-1 about last year’s Irish National winner. He is now as short as 6-1 in places, generally 7-1.

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been sending out mixed signals, understandably starting to feel the pressure of supplying McCoy’s final ride in the race. There have been heavy hints that the champion jockey will call time immediately on his riding career if he passes the post in front on April 11th.

All three of our other recommended each-way bets remain in contention. Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes are both now 20-1 from 33-1 while Monbeg Dude remains 33-1 after a poor prep run. Soft ground may improve the chances of Monbeg Dude, otherwise we may see him drift further in the betting.

Rocky Creek spearheads the Paul Nicholls runners and he could be joined by Unioniste, Rebel Rebellion and Mon Parrain. Last year’s runner-up Balthazar King is certain to be popular having by-passed Cheltenham this year in an attempt to go one better.

Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride the well-fancied The Druids Nephew after both Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell were ruled out through injury. It would be poetic justice for Coleman were he to pick up a spare ride and win the race, having chosen the wrong horse when Mon Mome won at 100-1 in 2009 under Liam Treadwell.

Alvarado will be bidding to continue the extraordinary run of the Rucker family who have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals, all ridden by Paul Moloney. He has had only one race since finishing fourth last year and is currently a top price of 25-1 with Coral.

I am surprised that both Lord Windermere and Many Clouds are heading to Aintree after running poorly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Leighton Aspell has been claimed to ride Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the ride on last year’s winner Pineau De Re. Lord Windermere ran a lifeless race at the festival and is burdened with top weight here with Robbie McNamara taking the ride.

Nina Carberry will ride First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris in a bid to become the first lady jockey to win the race. Katie Walsh has come closest so far, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.

Several firms are already offering five places in the National for each-way betting. They are: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Betfair and 32Red.

Grand National Ante-post update

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With the excitement of Cheltenham over for another year, we can start looking forward to Aintree and the Grand National on April 11th.

There were a number of National contenders in action at the festival last week but they did not include current Aintree favourite Shutthefrontdoor. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill decided against running his Irish National winner, presumably on account of the quicker ground. He will almost certainly be the mount of Tony McCoy, his last in the race before retirement. If the champion jockey was humbled by the adulation he received at Cheltenham, what will it be like should he ride the National winner? He has said that he has no specific date/race in mind for his final ride but going out on a National winner would be hard to top.

We put up the horse at 20-1 a few weeks ago and he is now as short as 8-1 favourite. We also singled out Spring Heeled at 33-1 and the Irish raider has been clipped to a top price of 20-1 after a satisfactory comeback. Jim Culloty’s Lord Windermere was scuppered by the going change on Gold Cup day so I would not be too concerned if you snapped up some 33’s about his stable companion for Aintree.

Our third ante-post pick was Monbeg Dude and he was disappointing at Cheltenham, finishing well behind The Druids Nephew. He is apparently being tested to see if they can find a problem but it may be that the ground was just too fast for him. He does tend to get detached, even in soft ground, so he could yet be a factor at Aintree if we get a wet April.

The Druids Nephew was cut to 14-1 for the National but it was another race which caught my attention with regards to the big race. Cause Of Causes finally gained a first win over the larger obstacles when winning the National Hunt Chase under Jamie Codd. His rider had him tucked away behind the leaders all the way and produced him late on to hold Broadway Buffalo.

He races in the same colours as Shutthefrontdoor so it will be interesting to see who gets the ride. Codd did pick up a suspension for marking the horse but went on to land a second winner at the meeting and would seem the logical choice for Aintree. Cause Of Causes has 10st 9lb to carry in the National and the 33-1 on offer with William Hill looks worth snapping up. He is as short as 20-1 elsewhere.

Cause Of Causes @33-1 William Hill

Grand National 2015 ante-post update

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The weights were announced on Tuesday for the Aintree Grand National and there were no real surprises. As expected, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere (11st 12lb) is at the top of the handicap alongside recent Irish Hennessy winner Carlingford Lough. Both horses are on target for the festival and I don’t expect either of them to line up at Liverpool.

Many Clouds is next on 11st 9lb and his participation will also depend on what happens at next month’s festival. Paul Nicholls is quite keen on the chances of Unioniste (11st 6lb) but he could end up shouldering top weight and really needs soft ground to show his best.

After Tony McCoy announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season, I highlighted the prospect of Shutthefrontdoor being the gamble of the race. Jonjo O’Neill’s Irish National winner was 20-1 at the time and has now been slashed to half those odds. If you did not get on early, I would not rush out to take the current odds.

Our other ante-post selections were Spring Heeled and Monbeg Dude (both tipped at 33-1). The former is likely to return to action this weekend at either Fairyhouse or Kempton. Connections have been avoiding running him so as to protect his handicap mark and he has been allocated 10st 12lb at Aintree. That looks a perfect racing weight and Jim Culloty will be happy to see him jump round safely in third or fourth this weekend.

I was not at all dismayed to see Monbeg Dude well beaten in the Haydock Grand National Trial on Saturday. He ran in the same race two years ago and came from another county to sneak into the frame. He is 2lbs better off than last year when finishing seventh in the big race and will know more about those big fences this time. Although his best form is on soft, it is not essential and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking any 33-1 that remains about him.

Pineau De Re and Balthazar King are back again after filling the first two places last year. The winner is up 8lbs but you’d have to expect that. I think that everything fell into place for him last season after that eye-catching run over hurdles at the festival. He will need to show something at the meeting again this year to warrant support.

Our Ante-post Portfolio;

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1 William Hill

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power