Tag: Simenon

Japan Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

European runners have failed to win the Japan Cup since 2005 and they appear to face a difficult task again this year. Melbourne Cup fourth Simenon and Canadian International winner Joshua Tree are joined by Dunaden but all three have been handed a double-figure draw.

Statistics suggest that this may not be too much of a disadvantage but it hard to be excited about the task facing Johnny Murtagh from stall 17 on Joshua Tree. Ed Dunlop’s horse has been around the block a few times and was chalking up a record third success in the International last month. He will presumably be chased up to the leaders early on as staying is his game.

Dunaden, winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012, has been unable to recapture his best form this season. He ran respectably without ever threatening to get involved at Flemington, eventually finishing eighth. He may have lost a little of his speed and it will be interesting to see what tactics are adopted by Jamie Spencer on him from stall 10.

Simenon ran a terrific race to finish fourth in the Melbourne Cup, looking a possible winner when looming up turning for home. He galloped on well enough under Richard Hughes but couldn’t go with Fiorente in the closing stages. As a horse that has won over two miles and six furlongs, you’d have to think that this mile and a half at the top level is going to be too short. However, I cannot resist the 20-1 put up by Corals as an each-way bet, even from stall 14.

The bookmakers have this race as a match between the grey Gold Ship and last year’s winner Gentildonna. Gold Ship won the Japanese 2000 Guineas and St Leger last season and won the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen in June. He is not a straight forward individual and is known to have his off days, notably when only fifth in the Tenno Sho Spring. Jockey Hiroyuki Uchida was quoted as saying “Sometimes he doesn’t feel like racing”. Hardly encouraging for anyone thinking of taking the 2-1!

When he does feel like racing he is very good indeed, as demonstrated by an easy victory over Gentildonna, a run which poses questions about last year’s winner. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride the four-year-old mare who is yet to win since this race a year ago. Japanese Derby winner Eishin Flash is another with the form to win this but was also well beaten last time.

Simenon (each-way) 20-1 Coral

Melbourne Cup – Runner-by-Runner Guide

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Over two months ago I put up Dandino (33-1) and Simenon (25-1) and both have made it safely to the big race. Better still, they have come through their prep races with flying colours and survived the lottery of the draw! It is an incredibly hot race this year and there are plenty of dangers. If you haven’t “played” yet, I wouldn’t put you off either horse and still think Dandino offers some value at a top price of 11-1 with 888Sport.

European runners enjoyed a fantastic Breeders’ Cup and I’m pleased to say that we came out on top with three winners from six selections including the impressive Outstrip at 6-1. It was so nearly four but The Fugue was just run out of it by Magician in the closing stages. Ryan Moore was at his brilliant best and his confidence will be sky high as he gets the leg up on Dandino.

As I mentioned previously, I have been impressed with Fiorente all the way through his preparation and expect him to be in the frame whilst Sea Moon is the class horse of the race. He may not have won over this trip yet but he stayed well enough to finish third in the St Leger in 2011 and he may have had a bit up his sleeve in the Herbert Power. I’m taking the best odds on those two as “cover bets” but will be cheering on Dandino and Simenon at 4.00am UK time!

Dandino 33-1*

Simenon 25-1*

Sea Moon 14-1 Coral

Fiorente 15-2 888Sport

*Ante-post advised

 

Complete Guide to the 24 runners

 

Fawkner

The Caulfield Cup winner held off the late challenge of Dandino but I’d be disappointed if the placings are not reversed this time. Dandino had to overcome a terrible draw whilst Fawkner had a pretty clear run. He is one of six Lloyd Williams runners and certainly has the form to make the first four at least.

 

Dunaden

The winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012 but has not shown quite the same sparkle this year. Jamie Spencer has teamed up with him this season and faces an interesting challenge from barrier 1. Not one for me but still a great favourite with Melbourne Cup fans.

 

Green Moon

Green Moon added his name to Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985) and Efficient (2007) as the fourth winner of the race owner Lloyd Williams. He’s slipped into the field almost unnoticed this year and his Cox Plate rate was not that far behind last year’s effort. His loyal followers will be hoping for a good run at a big price.

 

Red Cadeaux

If Trainer Ed Dunlop has started to joke about Red Cadeaux’s age catching up with him and any lingering hopes of finally getting his head in front must have disappeared with the 23 draw.  As admirable as he is, there is surely going to be something more sprightly to beat him this year.

 

Sea Moon

A high class colt for Sir Michael Stoute in England, he won the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot and was second in the Breeders’ Cup. He seems to have adapted well to his new surroundings and is going to be a real threat if he stays the trip. Simenon was not far behind him in the Herbert Power but Sea Moon gave the impression that he could have found more if needed.

 

Super Cool

All of Super Cool’s form is over shorter distances and this is a real shot in the dark. A fading fifth in the Cox Plate didn’t offer any clues as to his prospects of lasting out here and looks a big outsider

 

Voleuse De Coeurs

Voleuse De Coeurs did not seem anything special until blitzing the field by six lengths in the Irish St Leger. The four-year-old was immediately snapped up in a private deal and sent out to Australia specifically for this race. There are no doubts on stamina but a 21 barrier draw could make things difficult.

 

Fiorente

Gai Waterhouse is looking for her first win in the Melbourne Cup and Fiorente has been prepared with this race in mind all season. He made his Australian debut in this event 12 months ago and was only beaten a length at odds of 30-1. He has been running on well over trips well short of his best and looks the best of the home challenge.

 

Hawkspur

Hawkspur caught the eye when flying through up the inside to finish fifth in the Turnbull Stakes but a wide draw in the Caulfield Cup again left him too much to do. He is a habitual slow starter and anyone supporting him will be holding their breath through the early stages. He would need everything to go his way to win this but has the ability.

 

Tres Blue

Most of the attention will be Fiorente for Gai Waterhouse but she also saddles this promising French import. Without a prep run in Australia, so running in the big one first time out just as his stable companion did last year. A Group 2 winner in France and one of the unknown quantities in the field.

 

Brown Panther

This one is owned by former England soccer international Michael Owen and has already enjoyed big race success this year in the Goodwood Cup. He had a minor setback after that race and has had a slightly rushed preparation but has been catching the eye with his trackwork down under. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him sneak into the frame at a big price.

 

Foreteller

Foreteller burst on to the Melbourne Cup scene with his shock victory over Puissance De Lune in the Makybe Diva Stakes. The big question for his supporters is whether he can stay the Melbourne Cup trip. He made eye-catching late headway to finish fourth in the Cox Plate and will be one of several hoping for a sedate gallop.

 

Ethiopia

Most of the field go into the race on the back of a good recent run but that cannot be said of Ethiopia. He was beaten 64 lengths when finishing last 12 months ago but that was due to an injury. If this one pops up it will be a great result for the bookies!

 

Dandino

Anyone who reads my posts will know that I have been following this fellow all season and am sitting on a 33-1 voucher. He won the American St Leger in good style prior to running a cracker in the Caulfield Cup and jockey Ryan Moore is in flying form. I’m surprised that he is still as high as 11-1 in the UK and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

 

Verema

His Highness the Aga Khan has his first ever runner in the Melbourne Cup and it is by no means impossible that he could win it. Verema is trained by Alain de Royer Dupre of Americain fame and this filly has a very similar profile.  I very nearly included her in my cover bets and it would not surprise me in the least if she is in the first four.

 

Mourayan

Trainer Robert Hickmott has better claims with Sea Moon, Fawkner, Green Moon, Seville and Masked Marvel. Mourayan did win the Sydney Cup so he has the stamina but it would be a major shock if he proved good enough to win.

 

Seville

Seville was up to classic standard when trained by Aidan O’Brien, beaten only by Treasure Beach in the Irish Derby in 2011. He was absolutely slammed by Sea Moon in the Great Voltigeur and has had his problems since going to Australia. Has been well backed in the past couple of weeks so a big run cannot be ruled out.

 

Dear Demi

Dear Demi won the Group 2 Furious Stakes and later chased home Commanding Jewel in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. She enjoyed Group 1 success in the Crown Oaks at Flemington last year but is unproven over this distance. Only last weekend she just failed to peg back Side Glance in the Group One Mackinnon Stakes and this race may come too quickly.

 

Mount Athos

I was a big supporter of this one last year but a poor draw and a bumpy ride sealed his fate, eventually running on into fifth. Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani has been second with Purple Moon (2007) and Bauer (2008) but insists that Mount Athos is better than either of those. His response to another wide draw was very succinct – “damn it!” I fear that he will again struggle to get involved from barrier 22.

 

Royal Empire

Godolphin’s quest for a Melbourne Cup winner started way back in 1998 and Royal Empire is their only surviving entry this year. He won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury but has been beaten twice since. Kerrin McEvoy will give him a good ride but a place may be the best that he can hope for.

 

Masked Marvel

The 2011 English St Leger has been slow to find his form in Australia but, in truth, he had lost his way in Europe long before he arrived down under. He would need to produce his best effort for a long time in order to feature here and will need a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.

 

Simenon

If Dandino doesn’t win it, then I’m hoping that Simenon does. He is certainly better than a 25-1 shot judged on his fine effort when third in the Herbert Power Stakes. I am a little concerned at Richard Hughes having to sweat down to his lowest weight for the ride but Simenon can be ridden from anywhere and does have a finishing kick.

 

Ibicenco

The German-bred has just snatched a place by virtue of his win in a particularly weak looking renewal of the Geelong Cup. He was no great shakes when trained by Luca Cumani and I would be surprised if he proves good enough here.

 

Ruscello

On all known form, 50-1 is a fair price for the Lexus Stakes winner. Even his connections seriously doubted that he could make the line-up and they have Kerrin McEvoy to thank for his brilliant front-running ride on Saturday.

 

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

I tipped Dandino at 33-1 over two months ago and his price has now contracted to as short as 6-1 after his excellent run in the Caulfield Cup last week. I feared the worst when he was drawn in barrier 19 but Craig Williams rode him in a very similar way to 2012 winner Dunaden, refusing to panic in the early stages and making relentless progress up the home straight.

There is no question that he put in a first rate prep for the Melbourne Cup and I wouldn’t swap my 33-1 ticket for any other horse at the moment. That run came off the back of a game success in the American St Leger following a light campaign over shorter distances in Europe. Trainer Marco Botti has already shown that he knows how to prepare one for the Cup with Jakkalberry grabbing a place in the frame 12 months ago.

I also put up Irish hope Simenon at 25-1 and he has also shaped encouragingly with an excellent third in the Herbert Power Stakes. A victory there would have guaranteed him a place in the starting line-up but he now requires seven horses to drop out. You would have to be optimistic that he will get his chance and he is now a top-priced 20-1. Having finished second in the Ascot Gold Cup in June, he will relish the step up in trip and will hopefully get a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.

I’m happy with both selections at this stage and will not be adding to them, at least until the draw is made. The one I fear most is former Sir Michael Stoute galloper Fiorente. He also ran a fantastic trial and seems to have had the perfect build up for the big race. Mount Athos is quite short at 10-1 but he needs everything to go his way whilst Puissance de Lune has drifted out to 11-1 after a run of defeats.

Verema, Voleuse des Coeurs and Tres Blue are all going there with the potential to cause an upset and it promises to be a great race. If you’ve taken the 33-1 Dandino, keep your fingers crossed that he gets to the race in great shape and is given a better barrier draw at Flemington.

Dandino 33-1 “16th August

Simenon 25-1 Bet365

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

A couple of weeks ago I selected Dandino at 33-1 for the Melbourne Cup and he did his chances no harm when winning the American St Leger. A tilt at the big race is now firmly on the cards for the six-year-old and his trainer Marco Botti knows how to prepare a horse for Flemington. Twelve months ago he saddled 80-1 outsider Jakkalberry to finish third behind Green Moon and the best price available for Dandino is now 25-1.

European horses have been travelling down to Australia with high hopes for many years but a win still eludes the Brits. Ireland and France have enjoyed some success and Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Simenon is another raider from the Emerald Isle with sound claims. Although beaten by Godolphin’s Ahzeemah in the Lonsdale Stakes at York last week, he was greatly inconvenienced by having to make his own running. For a horse that stays in excess of two miles, he is blessed with a useful turn of foot and many of his previous wins have come through a telling burst of speed.

The post-race coverage was mostly concerned with Godolphin and whether Ahzeemah would be joining impressive Newbury scorer Royal Empire in this year’s assault on Australia’s greatest race. Ahzeemah was soundly beaten by Brown Panther in the Goodwood Cup and that horse could also be Melbourne-bound. Of the two, I much prefer Brown Panther who was second in the Group 1 St Leger as a three-year-old but is only now fulfilling his potential.

Also behind Brown Panther at Goodwood was Luca Cumani’s Mount Athos, an unlucky fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year. He reappeared at the Sussex track on Saturday to run second to the in-form Harris Tweed and could be on the way back to his best. Cumani has twice saddled the runner-up at Flemington and felt that Mount Athos was the best horse he had taken over for the race last season. Two severe bumps ruined any chance that he may have had but, as a hold-up horse, he is always going to be reliant on a decent draw and luck in running.

The home team have the first and second favourite in the ante-post market with Puissance De Lune and Fiorente. UK racing fans will know Fiorente from his days with Sir Michael Stoute and it was no surprise that he ran as well as he did on his debut for Gai Waterhouse. He did his prospects no harm when finishing second to All Too Hard over an inadequate trip in April and his home reports are encouraging.

Puissance De Lune has gone from strength to strength and confirmed his well-being with a comeback win at Caulfield earlier this month. Although he has an obvious chance, a top price of 7-1 is not tempting with over 2 months to go to the race. Another former Stoute inmate, Sea Moon, is also high on the betting lists along with It’s A Dundeel but both horses could have other targets along the way.

You cannot rule out Red Cadeaux after his second to Royal Empire in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. The 2011 runner-up is likely to run off a similar mark of around 115 and he certainly has experience on his side. Whilst it appeared a decent race on paper, I am a little concerned that the entire field finished within 8 lengths of each other.

As much as I like Brown Panther, I am mindful of the poor record of British runners and prefer to side with Irish raider Simenon. He has all of the right attributes to run a big race in Melbourne and 25-1 represents a fair bet.

Dandino 33-1* (16th August)

Simenon 25-1 Bet365

York Ebor Meeting Day 3 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The highlight of the third day of the Ebor meeting is the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. I previewed this race a couple of weeks ago and recommended the progressive three-year-old Moviesta at 8-1. Brian Smart’s sprinter has drawn stall 17 which looks to give him an advantage if the racing follows a similar pattern to the opening couple of days.

The place to be seems to be middle to high in the sprint races and few horses drawn low have managed to get involved in the closing stages. Having watched a replay of the King George at Goodwood, I felt that Swiss Spirit was a little unlucky not to finish closer. After a tardy start, he made up ground rapidly before being hampered close home as Moviesta jinked to his left. Trainer John Gosden was clocking up winners left, right and centre prior to the start of the Ebor meeting and got off the mark with The Fugue on Thursday. I think 8-1 is a good each-way bet for Swiss Spirit providing stall 7 does not prove an inconvenience.

Simenon gave us a thrill with our ante-post bet on the Ascot Gold Cup, chasing home Estimate in a thrilling race. The Melbourne Cup has been touted as a possible end of season target for the Irish stayer and he can book his place by winning the Lonsdale Stakes. His rivals don’t look to be blessed with his turn of foot and it should be a straight forward case of Murtagh producing him approaching the final furlong.

The Group 3 Strensall Stakes looks an ideal opportunity for Sir Michael Stoute’s Pavlosk to gain compensation for a desperately unlucky run at Goodwood. She was held up at the rear of the field, a tactic that invariably proved fatal at the Sussex track this year, before running on powerfully to finish fifth to Annecdote. There are question marks against several of her rivals including the hard-to-steer Gabrial and Chester winner Danadana. Hopefully there will be a strong enough pace for Pavlosk to cut them down in the straight.

Mark Johnston’s Broxbourne cut down her stable companion Party Line on the opening day of the meeting and that horse could be back for more in the opener. Normally you would question a horse running again so quickly but Johnston’s horses are a rule unto themselves. This shorter trip could be ideal and 12-1 looks a fair price in an open contest.

Party Line 12-1 Paddy Power

Simenon 13-8 William Hill

Pavlosk 3-1 Bet365

*Moviesta 8-1 ante-post

Swiss Spirit 8-1 Coral

Royal Ascot Day 3 Preview – Thursday 20th June

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Rizeena came to my rescue yesterday at 7-1 to limit the damage from some disappointing performances. It looks as though the fast ground is starting to have a real impact with some quick times and some horses running well below their best.

Who would have guessed that Chigun and Thistle Bird would run so badly? As for the Royal Hunt Cup…well, for once I have to agree with the post-race reflections of Channel 4. As soon as I saw Prince Of Johanne running diagonally across to get on the “wrong” side of the course I knew my fate. Poor Richard Hughes took the same decision on the well-backed favourite Stirring Ballad and then failed to get any sort of run whatsoever.

Anyway…onwards and upwards and let’s take a look at day 3. Our ante-post involvement is on the Gold Cup with Simenon (16-1), Estimate (10-1) and Biographer (40-1). All three have tumbled in price so I’m hoping for a similar result to the Queen Anne with a couple of nice place returns at least. I haven’t seen any reason to alter my opinion on the race.

I’ve been very impressed with Richard Fahey’s runners this week. He’s managed to get two juveniles into second place and Garswood ran a good race in the Jersey Stakes in fourth. I think that’s probably as good as he is but I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t see him drop back to six furlongs next time.

I’ll have to back Eccleston at 10-1, his representative in the opener. I’m expecting No Nay Never to be very difficult to peg back but there doesn’t seem great value at 5-1.

Having picked out The Lark ante-post for the Oaks at 33-1 I am a big fan of hers for tomorrow’s Ribblesdale. Of course I know that Ascot is something of a graveyard for Epsom horses but she didn’t have too hard a race there and I think she can win this. I am a little worried about the fast ground but 5-1 is too big.

I usually like a bet in the Britannia but this year’s field has got me a bit confused. You can usually rely on Haydock’s Silver Bowl as the best trial but the first and second from this year are not wanted by the punters? Wentworth has emerged as favourite after a nightmare run at Goodwood but it may be worth remembering that it was a pretty poor event. I’m certainly not going to be tripping over myself to take 4 or 5-1 in a race like this.

There is a bit of hype about Cape Peron and I can understand why. He won with a stone in hand last time and looks destined to make up into a group horse. As with The Lark, the quick ground is a worry but I’m prepared to take the risk at 7-1.

The 5.00 race features another horse going places in John Gosden’s Remote. I quite liked Baltic Knight before Doncaster but reassessed my views after he received a six-length drubbing. Baltic Knight then landed a big gamble at York so it is pretty obvious that Remote was masquerading as a handicapper. He is pitched in against horses with proven classic form but he is expected to prove up to the task.

The last race on the card is another minefield but I’m going to pick a couple out against the field. Space Ship would appear to be handicapped out of it on the face of his Epsom run but I don’t think anything went his way that day and he looked smart at Chester. Excellent Result absolutely bolted up in his maiden and could have suddenly twigged what the game is all about. Both are available at silly prices so they should give us some each-way interest.

Eccleston 2.30 10-1 Paddy Power
The Lark 3.05 5-1 Ladbrokes
Gold Cup 3.45 Ante-Post: Estimate 10-1, Simenon 16-1, Biographer 40-1
Cape Peron 4.25 7-1 Ladbrokes
Remote 5.00 100-30 Stan James
Space Ship 5.35 18-1 Stan James
Excellent Guest 5.35 14-1 Paddy Power