Tag: Sir Michael Stoute

Royal Ascot Thursday Preview

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The defeat of Treve on day 2 of Royal Ascot was not as big a surprise as the pundits would have you believe. The going is clearly riding good to firm with Sole Power able to use his blistering speed on the opening day and The Fugue relishing her favourite surface in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

Treve won a soft ground Arc over a mile and a half and it is little wonder she was running like a crab in the closing stages of a mile and a quarter race on quicker ground. Of course, we would not have taken a lot of encouragement about The Fugue’s prospects from her previous run or the typically downbeat Mr Gosden.

Thursday is Ascot Gold Cup day and a year ago we were celebrating an ante-post 1-2 as Estimate and Simenon fought out the finish. Both horses are back again tomorrow but they have had mixed fortunes since. Estimate has only managed one further racecourse appearance while Simenon has run in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and Dubai!

According to the bookmakers, Leading Light is already past the post. The St Leger winner handles this quicker ground having won at the corresponding meeting and was impressive first time out this season. The ground is most definitely against Altano, Brown Panther and Tac De Boistron so each-way options against the favourite are limited.

One horse that will like the ground is Ahzeemah. This horse has been crying out for fast ground and looks worth a bet at around 25-1. The Godolphin horses haven’t been setting the World alight so far this week but one big win would put matters right.

Early birds have already snapped up the value with Cannock Chase in the 3.05 race. Sir Michael Stoute’s promising colt looked to have a few pounds in hand when winning the London Gold Cup and this doesn’t look the strongest race of the week by any means. Integral gave the yard a boost on Wednesday and Cannock Chase can follow suit.

John Gosden has a fine record in the Britannia Handicap and his horses are clearly running out of their skins with the victories of Kingman and The Fugue. Hunters Creek is his runner this year and you can ignore his recent form as he has not been getting home over ten furlongs. At the furlong pole he was bang in contention with subsequent easy winner Master Carpenter last time and that form gives him better than a 16-1 chance.

Cannock Chase 3.05 Ascot 5-2 Bet365

Ahzeemah 4.25 Ascot 25-1 Ladbrokes, Bet Victor

Hunters Creek 5.00 Ascot 18-1 Betfair

Sandown Saturday Preview

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Sandown’s Saturday card gets under way at 1.50 with a nine furlong handicap for three-year-olds. The one we want to be on here is Sir Michael Stoute’s Gothic who looked a little unlucky at Goodwood last time out.

Ryan Moore had him tucked in on the rail as they turned for home and, as often happens at Goodwood, he had difficulty getting a clear run. After switching out and then back again, Gothic flew home to finish only a length behind Solo Hunter. That was a big improvement on his first run of the season where he seemed to get bogged down here in the race won by Windshear.

His dam Riberac was a real battler and Gothic looks to have inherited those qualities. Hopefully Moore can give him a better sight of the front on this occasion. The most dangerous rival may be course winner Reedcutter who beat Cape Icon and the disappointing Provenance last time. He was always travelling comfortably in front and it is difficult to know how much he had to spare.

The one-mile handicap at 2.20 looks virtually impossible to call with several last-time-out winners. St Moritz appears to have been galvanised by a visor and has bolted up in his last two outings. The handicapper has taken a dim view of his most success by lumping him up 12lbs but it is worth mentioning that he is still 17lbs lower than his career best figure.

Richard Hannon’s Aertex is seeking a fourth win on the bounce in the 4.05 and looks well up to the task. She was given a fair bit to do by Richard Hughes at Newbury last time but came through strongly to beat Token Of Love. The form was boosted today by the fourth Cay Dancer, a stable companion of the winner.

The biggest threat could come from Captain Bob who looked set to score at Chester in May before hanging away from the rail in the home straight. Had he kept straight, he could possibly have held on and he now drops back a furlong in trip.

The maiden race at 4.40 looks packed full of promise with the Newbury race won by Second Step coming under the spotlight. Kings Fete (fourth), Fastnet Red (fifth) and Jonny Rae (sixth) all ran well that day but preference is for Sir Michael Stoute’s colt who was not touched with the whip and finished only a length down at the line.

Gothic 1.50 Sandown at 5-2 William Hill

St Moritz 2.20 Sandown at 7-1 BetBright

Aertex 4.05 Sandown at 9-4 Boylesports

Kings Fete 4.40 Sandown

 

 

 

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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Wonderstruck (11-4) kept us in profit on Friday when eclipsing the £2.6 million colt Hydrogen. It will be interesting to see where they go next with Qatar Racing’s record purchase but we are not quite talking Snaafi Dancer just yet!

Tomorrow offers a glut of tricky handicaps and stakes races at Newmarket, York and Haydock. There are some very competitive fields, in total contrast to the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown on Thursday night. I think that must be a contender for the weakest Group 3 race in living memory and it must have been very frustrating for the race planners.

I was surprised by the decision to pull out Remote after Hillstar had already been withdrawn, especially after John Gosden had taken a chance with Kingman last week at the Curragh. He was rewarded there with a classic victory.

Top Tug reminded us just how much Sir Michael Stoute’s horses can improve from their first run of the season and I’m looking to Rye House to do the same tomorrow. He won impressively at York last season but never made it back to the track. He did not get the clearest of runs at York on his return behind Clever Cookie but showed enough to warrant support at Newmarket tomorrow. Soft ground won’t bother him and it is just a matter of whether or not he is good enough to win off a mark of 98.

My other selection for Newmarket is more speculative. I’m taking a chance on Picture Dealer in the sprint, although I do have slight reservations about the ground. He ran a race packed full of promise when finishing in midfield at York first time out and he looks just the sort to bag a nice prize this season. He did win on soft ground at Brighton in 2012 but his most recent victories have come on a faster surface.

York looks fiendishly difficult so I’m going to bypass that meeting and look to Haydock instead. The seven furlong race looks quite a hot contest with the likes of Tawhid and Garswood entered. They are both talented horses who have yet to fulfil their potential. The same cannot be said of Eton Forever who is a real seven-furlong specialist and looks the safest option at around 9-2.

Eton Forever 2.40 Haydock at 9-2 Totesport

Picture Dealer 3.00 Newmarket at 16-1 Totesport, Ladbrokes

Rye House 3.35 Newmarket at 3-1 Paddy Power

Sandown Thursday Preview

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There is a good card at Sandown on Thursday night with the Brigadier Gerard Stakes topping the bill. Although there are only five runners, it still looks a bit of a puzzle.

Hillstar is the obvious choice after running a fair second to Brown Panther in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester. That race was over a mile and five furlongs on soft ground so this drop back to a mile and quarter is interesting. I’ve never really been a fan of Hillstar but this looks as soft a Group 3 as you could come across and he must go close under Ryan Moore.

Top Notch Tonto will find his stamina tested here while Sheikhzayedroad and Sharestan have had their limitations exposed. The one horse that has the potential to develop into a genuine Group 1 performer is Remote, trained by John Gosden. He did this column a favour last season at Royal Ascot but has not raced since and that is a major worry. No doubt Mr G will tell anyone who asks that he will need the run but I’m inclined to chance it at around 4-1.

The second Group 3 on the card is the Henry II Stakes with several Gold Cup entries on show. Brown Panther won the Goodwood Cup and was eighth in Melbourne. The trip and ground won’t worry him and he is as honest as the day is long. Tiger Cliff was third in the Yorkshire Cup but they went no great gallop that day and I wouldn’t be certain of him confirming the form with either High Jinx (5th) or Camborne (7th). El Salvador has a high head carriage while Biographer has been very disappointing and the blinds are fitted here.

My best bet of the evening is reserved for the last with the reappearance of Abseil. I always take note of any lightly-raced four-year-olds retained by Sir Michael Stoute. A healthy percentage of them start in handicaps and progress to Group races and Abseil looks to be heading in that direction.

I was extremely worried about his draw at Chester last time out and it proved his un-doing. His cause was further damaged when he missed the break so he did well to chase home the well prepared Here Comes When. He was beaten five lengths so is only up 1lb for that run and he looks nap material.

Brown Panther 7.15 Sandown at 4-1 Paddy Power

Remote 7.50 Sandown at 4-1 Betfair

Abseil 8.50 Sandown at 2-1 Bet365

Goodwood Thursday Preview

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The Oaks form of Taghrooda comes under the microscope at Goodwood tomorrow in the Height Of Fashion Stakes.

John Gosden’s filly romped to a six-length victory in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket and has been favourite for the Epsom Oaks ever since. The trainer suffered frustration in the 2000 Guineas with Kingman being beaten narrowly and will be hoping to have better luck on Oaks day.

His nearest pursuer was Luca Cumani’s Jordan Princess but at a respectful distance with Uchenna further back in fourth. It will be fascinating to see how they perform in a race that also tests the value of the Cheshire Oaks form.

Feedyah is another interesting runner having been thrashed twice by Ihtimal in Dubai. That filly is my ante-post wager for the classic and I notice that Kieren Fallon has taken over from De Sousa. There are some strange goings on with Godolphin and their jockey plans at the moment.

I watched the performance of Psychometry that day with interest and she shaped well enough. As with most of Sir Michael Stoute’s horses, she needed the run to put her straight and I will side with her to improve enough to take this. Strictly on the book, she should not beat Secret Pursuit but that filly will be having her fifth start of the season tomorrow.

There are plenty of betting opportunities on a good card and I like the chances of Emef Diamond in the 2.40. Mick Channon’s horse ran well enough at Nottingham to suggest he can feature here. There are several dark horses to worry about including Fast Delivery who won easily on the all-weather but Emef Diamond is attractively priced.

Presto Volante can land the stayers handicap for Amanda Perrett despite the money being for stable companion Lion Beacon. You have to think that Ryan Moore’s booking is significant on the latter but Presto Volante could be picked out travelling best a long way from home at Kempton and he is only up 6lbs.

The Stoute bandwagon can roll on in the 3.50 with Russian Realm, a colt out of classic winner Russian Rhythm. He may not have her class but he ought to be up to taking this. The Rectifier may be a threat after a fine run at Haydock along with Roger Charlton’s So Beloved.

Emef Diamond 2.40 Goodwood at 14-1 BetVictor

Presto Volante 3.15 Goodwood at 15-2 BetVictor

Russian Realm 3.50 Goodwood at 9-4 William Hill

Psychometry 4.25 Goodwood at 5-1 Paddy Power

Sandown Thursday Preview

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Sir Michael Stoute’s stable has burst into form in the past couple of weeks and he launches an assault across Sandown and Goodwood on Thursday.

The pick of his Sandown runners is Provenance who bolted up at Kempton on his debut and is now tried in handicap company. He does not yet have any high profile entries but I would be surprised if he is not able to follow up off a mark of just 84. The form of his Kempton win may be moderate but he is not up against a very inspiring bunch on Thursday with several of them having flopped last time out.

Russian Heroine should not be hard pushed to take the opener for Stoute after a good debut run at Windsor behind Cajoling. Although no match for the winner, it looks the best form on show in this contest.

Stoute’s third runner of the night is Munaaser in the mile and a quarter handicap. He looked to have been given plenty to do last time but cut down the leader readily before surging five lengths clear. The one thing that worries me about him is his high knee action. The going is good to firm at the Esher track and that could just catch him out.

It is interesting that Ryan Moore partners Cricklewood Green who ran well for Richard Hannon last time. I am not convinced that he will be suited by the conditions either and I’m siding with Luca Cumani’s Roseburg.

He won stylishly at Pontefract over this distance and has much more of a daisy-cutting action suited to quicker ground. He looks a far more tempting proposition at the prices than the Stoute horse. I will also be keeping an eye on Gold Trail who showed plenty of promise as a juvenile but is yet to race this season.

Stoute’s fourth runner is Savant in the maiden race but there is a long odds-on favourite here in Mutakkayef. He took two bumps when beaten by a decent sort in Barley Mow at Newmarket and this looks a lot easier to win.

Russian Heroine 5.55 Sandown

Provenance 7.00 Sandown at 11-8 BetVictor

Roseburg 7.35 Sandown at 10-1 BetVictor