Tag: Sir Michael Stoute

Newbury Saturday Preview

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The Lockinge Stakes is the highlight of Saturday’s Newbury card. For a race that has thrown up some top class winners, this looks a modest renewal.

The short-priced favourite is Olympic Glory, a position he owes to his Ascot victory last autumn. He had too much class for the upgraded handicapper Top Notch Tonto on that occasion, although his fitness has to be taken on trust here.

More importantly, the going is not soft and we are unlikely to see the best of “Tonto”. Tullius also stepped out of handicaps to slam Montiridge by four lengths at Sandown. That was either a fine victory or a very disappointing effort from the runner-up, but it was on soft ground.

Chopin was seventh in the Derby last year but is back to his right trip here while Aidan O’Brien saddles American import Verrazano. The colt is a Grade 1 winner in the States and finished in front of Breeders’ Cup winner Groupie Doll when fourth in the Cigar Mile. With the favourite so short, he looks the most logical alternative.

Sir Michael Stoute supplied a double for us at York on Friday and was a shade unlucky not to make it a treble with Radiator. I was slightly concerned about her having her first outing of the season but she ran a good race. The fact that Cannock Chase was able to win easily on his first run suggests that there is plenty of improvement to come, as with most of the Stoute horses. He looks the one to beat in the London Gold Cup.

Battalion takes a rise in class in the Aston Park Stakes but I’m a little worried about the drying ground for him. He won by four lengths on his first run on good ground but he did seem to be “climbing” a little and his best form is on soft and heavy. I had selected Mount Athos for Chester last week but he was pulled out owing to the soft going and this looks likely to suit him much better.

The early money has been for Hayley Turner and Bronze Angel in the seven furlong handicap at 2.40. He did show promise in the Spring Cup but I won’t be backing him at a single figure price and prefer the claims of Modern Tutor. He has joined Andrew Balding from Stoute’s yard and looked unlucky not to add to his Windsor victory last season. Balding had a great Chester with his handicappers and Oisin Murphy still claims a useful 3lbs.

Mount Athos 2.05 Newbury at 100-30 William Hill

Modern Tutor 2.40 Newbury at 17-2 BetVictor

Cannock Chase 3.15 Newbury at 4-1 William Hill

Verrazano 3.50 Newbury at 11-2 William Hill

York Friday Preview

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It has been a tough week at York and yesterday’s Dante result hardly clarified the Epsom Derby picture. Supporters of True Story have to be disappointed with his third place effort and they finished in a bit of a heap. Arod is probably the horse to take out of the race but perhaps he is more of a St Leger candidate than a Derby horse. His free running style in the early stages and his tendency to take a while to hit top gear will count against him on the Surrey track.

The third and final day of a long week looks like a red-letter day for Sir Michael Stoute. He has four runners, all with leading chances. Arab Spring should get the ball rolling in the handicap at 2.15. It is true that he is up 11lbs for his facile Doncaster victory but Sir Michael has entered him for the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes. He has followed a similar route with his lightly-raced older horses in the past and Arab Spring shapes like a potential Group horse.

Next up is Gospel Choir in the Yorkshire Cup. He was most impressive when sweeping to victory in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket where his victims included last year’s Irish Derby winner Trading Leather. Pether’s Moon was second and he ran another solid race last week.

The toughest rival will be Tac De Boistron who breezed home at Ascot in the Sagaro Stakes. The form may be questionable as neither Simenon nor Harris Tweed appeared to run their races. Even so, he is a proven Group 1 stayer and must be feared.

Radiator was hyped beyond belief after winning a maiden at Lingfield by 15 lengths. Admittedly that is a rare occurrence but she was way too short at 11-10 for the Newmarket race won by Miss France from Lightning Thunder. Radiator was fourth but that form does not look too dusty after the 1-2 filled the same places in the 1000 Guineas!

The final leg of the Stoute four-fold is Mairise in the closing handicap over a mile and a half. The bare form is nothing to write home about but she was staying on strongly at Yarmouth last time over two furlongs shorter than she faces tomorrow. There aren’t many Stoute horses running with a handicap mark in the low seventies and the son of Authorized should be up to the task.

Arab Spring 2.15 York at 11-8 Paddy Power

Gospel Choir 2.45 York at 9-2 William Hill

Radiator 3.15 York at 9-2 William Hill

Mairise 5.00 York at 2-1 William Hill, Bet365

Chester Friday Preview

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Having secured a profit on each of the first two days at Chester, the pressure is on for the final day of the meeting. Friday’s card looks the weakest of the week and there are only a couple of horses that stand out for me.

At the start of the week I was saying just how vital a low draw is at the Roodeye. Typically, the two widest drawn horses in the opening two-year-old race finished 1-2! Normal service has been resumed for the rest of the week but the opener tomorrow throws up another conundrum.

Sir Michael Stoute does not keep a lot of older horses in training, especially unraced maidens. Abseil is very much an exception to the rule and he won his maiden in fine style at Yarmouth last month. He raced quite keenly early on but settled well enough for James Doyle before stretching clear over a mile. Only one of the beaten horses has run since and finished second so it is too early to say whether it was a decent maiden.

The handicapper has taken a chance by rating him at just 91. I think he is expected to go a lot higher than that but enter the dreaded Chester draw. He has drawn 13 of 14 which virtually puts him in the River Dee. The trouble is that I cannot find what is likely to beat him, apart from the draw. Capo Rosso won well on the all-weather but is in stall 11 while Here Comes When (1) and Big Johnny D (2) are likely to blaze the trail. The softer ground may help as it will slow the leaders down a little.

My second bet is for Mount Athos in the Ormonde Stakes. He hacked up in this race last year but it was a poor field, underlined by the runner-up Mad Moose! Even so, it showed that he handles it round here and his form in Australia was top notch. Stoute is again to the fore with Hillstar but almost all of his runners need their first run.

I am not a great fan of Jamie Spencer and I was amazed by his ride on Angel Gabrial in the Chester Cup. I had ready Richard Fahey’s column explaining that they had finally found out that the key to the horse was to hold him up as late as possible. Spencer held him up in rear but then unleashed him into the lead on the home turn. He was a sitting duck from that point and it was no surprise to see Ryan Moore steal the glory. Spencer should have no such problems on Mount Athos.

Abseil at 9-2 Paddy Power

Mount Athos at 9-4 Coral

Sandown Friday Preview

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The Gordon Richards Stakes card at Sandown has been given something of a revamp and has attracted a fine quality card for Channel 4 viewers on Friday.

The star of the show is Telescope who reappears in the feature event for Sir Michael Stoute. Last season he was hyped out of all proportion before and after the Derby but proved himself a quality colt when winning the Great Voltigeur at York.

The original plan had been the Epsom Derby but a rushed preparation failed to get him ready in time. He then won at Leicester by 24 lengths before failing at odds-on at Haydock. Stoute felt that his critics were hard on him at the time and must have revelled in his York victory. Whether he can be another Harbinger is open to question but I’d be disappointed if he cannot win this.

There is a cracking field in the Bet365 Mile and I cannot split Garswood, Montiridge and Top Notch Tonto. The latter’s prospects will increase if the rain keeps falling while Garswood is yet to fulfil his true potential. Richard Fahey couldn’t seem to settle on his best trip last season and this is his first tilt at a mile since the 2000 Guineas.

Montiridge travels so easily in his races but does not always find a lot in the closing stages. You just can’t help but love Top Notch Tonto with his white legs! It is like watching one of those old westerns when he comes galloping through. I’m going to pass on this one but all three will win races this season.

Gosden and Buick are continuing on their merry way and I expect Western Hymn to boost his Derby prospects with a win in the Classic Trial. I like Newbury as a track for spotting future winners and there was plenty to like about the way he knuckled down to win there last time. Truth Or Dare and Sir Jack Layden have the best form in the book but both are well exposed. I’d be more worried about Red Galileo stepping up on last year’s form but Western Hymn should give us a nice double with Telescope.

Channel 4 are also showing the Esher Cup at 1.40 and there are a couple of horses for your notebook here too. Sacred Act and End Of Line both hold Group 1 entries and the market will be a good guide to their respective chances.

Telescope at 11-10 Paddy Power

Western Hymn at 4-6 Bet365

Leicester Tuesday Preview

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The main flat racing action on Tuesday comes from Leicester and the bet of the day could be Sir Michael Stoute’s Gothic in the maiden race at 5.10.

The son of Danehill Dancer is out of Riberac who was a typically tough Mark Johnston filly and I’m hopeful that he may have inherited some of her traits. He was clearly unfancied on his debut at Newmarket when sent off at 33-1 under Pat Dobbs.

After settling towards the rear, he made some progress at half-way before staying on at the one pace to finish sixth behind Mitraad. The form is hard to assess at this stage but he steps up to a mile for the first time on Tuesday and Ryan Moore is aboard. Most of Stoute’s youngsters have needed a run to put them straight this season so there could be significant improvement in him.

The dangers come from the unraced horses. Roger Charlton runs Hooded, an Empire Maker colt out of the smart Yashmak whilst Andrew Balding’s Opera Duke is also bred to be useful. Luca Cumani runs Seek A Star but the booking of Kirsty Milczarek suggests that the filly may need this first outing to sharpen her up.

Palace Dragon has had two runs but looks distinctly moderate but Mark Johnston’s Alex My Boy could certainly be a threat. He is by Dalakhani out of Oaks winner Alexandrova. Kieren Fallon is an eye-catching booking and this colt is the one that I am most wary of.

The Conditions race at 4.10 should go to Princess Loulou who won by nine lengths at Pontefract on her third start. The going was soft that day and the leaders went off at a suicidal pace, leaving Princess Loulou to come through and win at her leisure. Her three opponents look completely out of sorts but there is unlikely to be much value in the market.

Ryan Moore also has a sound chance in the opener on Balding’s Trading Profit who has been flying high in recent starts. He was unable to land a blow in the Mill Reef Stakes or the Redcar Two-year-old Trophy but should be more suited to this grade.

Gothic (5.10 Leicester)

Lingfield Preview 24th September

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Wins for Coral Mist (7-1) and Supplicant (5-1) gave us a tidy profit on a busy Saturday. The highlight this week is the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket but we’ll start the week with a look at Lingfield on Tuesday.

I’m not a great fan of the all-weather but the big Newmarket stables seem to be happy to run their maidens at Lingfield and there are a couple that catch my eye. The first is Sir Michael Stoute’s Alex Vino in the 3.00 race.

He finished third on his debut behind 33-1 shot Learaig at Newmarket when ridden by Kieren Fallon. As a son of High Chaparral, he’s bred for a mile and a half in time so the seven furlongs was barely enough to get him going. Fallon was noticeably easy on him, pushing out with hands and heels. Ryan Moore steps in for the ride tomorrow and has one significant opponent in Alpine Retreat. The Godolphin colt finished second on his debut at Kempton so will handle the surface and rates a live danger. I’m just hoping that Alex Vino has more scope and I expect him to be ridden more prominently here.

My second bet of the day is in the closing race at 5.30. If any Lingfield regulars are thinking of leaving early to beat the traffic, they may want to hold on for an interesting maiden. Squire Osbaldeston is the selection, running for Lady Cecil who has just confirmed her intention to remain in charge at Warren Place next season.

This colt has always been held in some regard but has only managed three racecourse appearances. The most recent was back in May when he saw no daylight at all behind Eshtiaal at Goodwood. There are some useful sorts in opposition, notably Godolphin’s Hawker, but I’m hoping that Lady C has her charge fully wound up for this. By the way, Squire Osbaldeston himself once won a 200-mile endurance race by completing it in ten hours. Hopefully his namesake will come home a lot quicker tomorrow!

Alex Vino 3.00 15-8 Skybet

Squire Osbaldeston 5.30 5-2 Bet Victor