Tag: Sir Michael Stoute

York Ebor Meeting Day 1 Preview

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We had some success on a busy Saturday with a couple of nice winners at Newbury and Dandino‘s victory in the American St Leger. I could not believe the price of Glen Moss (5-2) so I hope that you managed to get some of the early 11-2. Our ambitious 33-1 Dandino for the Melbourne Cup gives us something to dream about through the Autumn!

York’s Ebor meeting is always a mixture of top quality Group races and impossible handicaps and Wednesday’s opening day card illustrates the point perfectly. What better way to kick off the meeting than with a 20-runner five-furlong handicap? I’m going to take a stab at this one with Alan Jarvis’s Lady Gibraltar who was just touched off here by Secret Asset. Two runs previously she ran another blinder on this course when beaten only 3/4 of a length by Kingsgate Choice with subsequent Royal Ascot winner York Glory just behind. She clearly runs well here and sneaks in at the foot of the handicap. She is in the middle of the pack so the draw shouldn’t be her downfall and she’s worth an each-way punt at 14-1.

The Acomb Stakes should be interesting with the unbeaten First Flight and The Great Gatsby taken on by Clive Brittain’s Brazos. First Flight lost eight lengths at the start first time out but still won by three! If he starts off on level terms here he must have an outstanding chance whilst The Great Gatsby is an imposing grey who overcame greenness to deny Brazos here last time. I think 2-1 might be a shade generous for the Godolphin colt.

Some of the criticism of one-time Derby hope Telescope appears to have rattled the cage of Sir Michael Stoute judging by his comments earlier this week. In fairness, the colt only won an egg and spoon race by 24 lengths previously so it was no mean effort to finish second at Haydock. He was staying on well at the end and gets an extra two furlongs here. As I’ve backed Excess Knowledge for the Leger, I’m hoping that the form gets a boost from the Gordon Stakes. If Excess Knowledge was unlucky, then so too was Secret Number and it is not impossible that he can turn the form around with his stable companion.

The Juddmonte International looks more of a race to watch that get heavily involved in. Al Kazeem should win because it is his distance but the pace may be false unless Trading Leather is given a positive ride. I am surprised that Toronado is being turned out again so quickly after his epic victory at Goodwood.

I’m not quite sure what Lisa Allpress was trying to do on Broxbourne at Ascot last time but she stayed on all too late behind Homeric. With Fanning back in the plate I would expect to see the form reversed tomorrow and she could be a decent bet at 6-1 or so.

Lady Gibraltar 14-1 Boylesports

First Flight 2-1 Coral

Secret Number 5-1 Ladbrokes

Broxbourne 6-1 Ladbrokes

Horse Racing Preview Saturday 8th June

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Haydock has put together a decent card on Saturday with the feature race being the Timeform Jury Stakes, a Group 3 seven-furlong race better known as The John Of Gaunt Stakes. Previous winners include Decorated Hero and Main Aim and it is ideal for those horses that fall between sprinter and miler.

Darryl Holland rode Pastoral Player to victory here 12 months ago and Graham Lee is in the saddle tomorrow as the six-year-old bids to win it for a second time. Hughie Morrison’s gelding looked a shade unlucky when fourth behind Eton Forever here last month and that form has since been boosted by the Diomed Stakes win of Gregorian. He will need to reverse the placings with both the winner and Red Jazz (3rd) but I think the quicker ground will help.

Ambivalent is likely to be sent off favourite for the Pinnacle Stakes after finishing second to the useful Dalkala at York. She ran quite freely there and I’m not entirely convinced that she will be suited by this step up in trip. I’m prepared to take the 9-2 available about Godolphin’s Prussian. Her latest effort when second in Meydan was possibly flattering but a similar display would see her home in this grade.

Hoyam and Hayley Turner will be a popular choice for the Cecil Frail Stakes after just losing out at Nottingham last time. This looks a difficult little race but I’m going for City Girl to provide Ralph Beckett with another decent prize. She was well beaten by Zanetto at Newbury last time but had a smart performer in Ninjago behind in third and she must rate a fair bet at 8-1.

The Listed Sandy Lane Stakes looks like set to go the way of Richard Hannon’s The Professor. He was an easy winner at Ascot and can follow up here at the expense of Irish raider Clancy Avenue.

Over at Newmarket there is a decent sprint with Sir Michael Stoute’s Enrol and Nocturn set to clash over six furlongs. I have backed Nocturn ante-post for the Wokingham but neither horse looks certain to get a run at this stage. I liked his performance at York and am reluctant to pass him over off only a 3lbs higher mark. However, Enrol also impressed me when winning at Doncaster under hands and heels and looks destined for better things. Backing favourites in sprint handicaps may be the quick way to the poor house but I think 11-4 is a decent bet.

Niceofyoutotellme was widely touted ahead of the big Epsom meeting but was withdrawn from his intended engagement. He did produce a good burst of speed to win last time and I would not be surprised to see him sent off favourite but Ehtedaam strikes me as another horse going the right way. His rider did not need to resort to the whip to see off Nabucco last time and I can’t see the result being any different here.

Newmarket
Ehtedaam 3-1 Ladbrokes
Enrol 11-4 William Hill

Haydock
Prussian 9-2 Bet365
Pastoral Player 3-1 Ladbrokes
City Girl 8-1 Bet365
The Professor 6-4 William Hill

Royal Ascot Ante-Post Update

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The Epsom Derby meeting does not usually provide many clues to Royal Ascot. In fact, it is often best to avoid the horses that run in the classics and then seek compensation at the Royal meeting. However, one of the handicaps could have provided an exception to the rule.

The Epsom Dash produced a bizarre finish when Sir Michael Stoute’s Duke Of Firenze burst through to grab an unlikely victory. With about a furlong and a half to run it looked as though he would struggle to make the frame but he suddenly took off once Ryan Moore switched him inside. Matching his run from the rear was Smoothtalkinrascal and the pair of them scythed through the field in eye-catching style.

It was possibly as much to do with the leaders slowing up as the first and second accelerating but both horses look sure-fire future winners. Duke Of Firenze looks set to run in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot off a 5lbs higher mark. The stable also has Enrol entered but that horse is languishing at number 80 in the handicap and is unlikely to get a run. Predictably the bookmakers have installed him as favourite but the 10-1 with Ladbrokes is worth adding to our Ascot portfolio.

Stoute will probably have a strong hand in the handicaps at the meeting this year but the one race he would really like to win is the Ascot Gold Cup. Amazingly he has not won the race since Shangamuzo in 1978 but has decent prospects this year with the Queen’s Estimate. The race she won at Sandown was a muddling affair but she quickened past them well enough and will be primed to run a big race. I’ve taken 16-1 about Simenon (now best-priced at 12-1) and I think the addition of Estimate at 10-1 will double my chances in a less-than-vintage Gold Cup.

Having backed Chapter Seven for the Royal Hunt Cup I was less than pleased to see him given a pacemaking role for Dunaden in the Coronation Cup. That race is over half a mile further than his optimum trip so it was hardly the ideal prep for Ascot. Another horse I like for the Hunt Cup is last year’s winner Prince Of Johanne. The grey ran a storming trial at York last month and must have a chance off virtually the same mark as 12 months ago. He is presently 20-1 with many punters believing that Dance And Dance, eighth at York, is the one to be on for Ascot. He was runner-up in 2011 and also has to be respected.

Royal Hunt Cup
Prince Of Johanne 20-1 Paddy Power

Wokingham
Duke Of Firenze 10-1 Ladbrokes

Gold Cup
Estimate 10-1 Ladbrokes

Oaks Ante-Post Preview Update

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Last week I recommended taking the 4-1 about Secret Gesture for the Epsom Oaks and she is now down to 5-2 favourite. The form of her runaway win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial is nothing to write home about but it was the manner of her victory that caught the eye. She looked happy at every stage of the race, responded to a shake of the reins and could have quickened up again if it had been necessary. There may not be that much of her but there is nothing wrong with her engine and she looks like being an outstanding filly.

Aidan O’Brien’s 1000 Guineas third Moth has been displaced as favourite and could possibly line up in the Irish Guineas this weekend. That would surely rule her out of contention for the Oaks but it is never a good idea to try and second-guess what trainers are planning to do. The same applies to Snow Queen who ran on well at Newmarket with the stable also having Cork winner Say entered for Epsom. A case could be made for all three but I’m happy to pass them over until running plans are confirmed.

Liber Nauticus ground out a victory in the Musidora Stakes last week but it was more of a workmanlike display than anything spectacular. I am surprised to find her as short as 7-2 as my first reaction was that she would be pushed out to 5 or 6-1 for Epsom. Sir Michael Stoute provided this column with a nice treble the following day so it is not easy to overlook anything he sends out at the moment. She looked the sort of filly that could go on to win a race like the Park Hill and I think she may meet a couple with a bit more toe at Epsom.

One runner that I was tempted to include as an each-way selection was Cheshire Oaks winner Banoffee. She is to be supplemented for the race after overcoming a slow start to sluice up the rail and pick off the leaders at Chester. She looked a little bit too keen in the early stages, although this could have been down to it being her first start of the season, but I’m just a little concerned about how she will settle in the Oaks. I wouldn’t put anyone off her at 10-1 but I’m not entirely convinced about her over this trip.

Secret Gesture will be joined by her stable companion Talent, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. Madame Defarge ran on into third that day but there seems no obvious reason for her to reverse the placings. The French raider Planete Bleue is an unknown quantity and runs in the famous colours of Daniel Wildenstein. Unfortunately I have not yet been able to see any “visual clues” as to how good she is but the fact that she is available at 50-1 suggests that she is no world-beater. At the moment, everything points to a victory for Secret Gesture.

Secret Gesture 5-2 Paddy Power

York Dante Meeting Day 3 Preview May 17th

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The third and final day of the meeting features the Yorkshire Cup. I have gone through this race several times and find it impossible to support any of the runners with any confidence. I have been following Sir Graham Wade’s progress with interest and it may be that he just needed his first couple of outings to put him right. The well-travelled Cavalryman and Joshua Tree have obvious claims and you cannot rule out Royal Diamond on his best form. The stayers division does look wide open this season, a point underlined by Mount Athos being made favourite for the Ascot Gold Cup after winning an egg and spoon race at Chester last week. A little each-way on Sir Graham Wade is the selection.

The supporting card kicks off with a quick reappearance for five-length Chester winner Quatuor. Tom Dascombe’s filly had the race won before the home turn that day and it is going to take a very speedy sort to lower her colours. Another winner on the Roodeye was Sir Michael Stoute’s Sir John Hawkwood and it is highly unusual for the Newmarket trainer to run his horses quickly under a penalty. Ryan Moore rode Chester to perfection that day, kicking his horse in the belly to get over from a wide draw and then staying close to the pace before delivering his effort on the turn. His style of victory was not particularly impressive but the opposition does not look particularly strong.

*Incidentally, for those who like to know these things, Sir John Hawkwood was an English-born mercenary who was active in 14th century Italy, amassing a fortune in land and gold. Sir Graham Wade is named after a musicologist known for his biographies.

Stoute produced Liber Nauticus to win the Musidora on Wednesday and has another smart filly in Pavlosk who won on her debut at Newbury. She is taken to take the step up to Listed class in her stride and the stable can round off a successful day with Rye House in the 4.25. The Dansili colt only raced three times as a three-year-old and has not been kept in training for the good of his health.

Over at Newbury it is worth keeping an eye out for Richard Hannon’s Ninjago. He was held up well off the pace at Ascot on his seasonal debut but moved effortlessly up to the leaders and won with plenty in hand. I expect him to take this Listed contest on the way to better things. Another horse that may not have finished winning is Luca Cumani’s Rockalong who goes for a four-timer over at Newmarket.

Quatuor 1.45 York 11-4 Paddy Power
Sir John Hawkwood 2.15 York 5-2 William Hill
Sir Graham Wade 2.45 York (each-way) 9-1 Bet Victor
Pavlosk (nb) 5-2 Paddy Power
Rye House 3-1 William Hill

Ninjago (NAP) Newbury 13-8 Paddy Power
Rockalong Newmarket 9-4 Ladbrokes

Racing Preview Saturday 4th May

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Saturday’s feature race is the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but there are plenty of other races worthy of study. In truth, the rest of Newmarket’s card is a little disappointing. I am often surprised at the poor turnout for Group races in this country and the Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) is a case in point. Just four runners for a £100,000 race preceding the first classic of the season? I know that the authorities do their best with the re-opening of races but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a change to the programme next year.

The opening race is an interesting handicap and the betting is likely to revolve around Rye House, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He doesn’t keep them in training at four unless they are likely to pay their way and the lightly raced son of Dansili starts the season on a fair handicap mark. The Palace House Stakes is typically competitive and I’m a big fan of Spirit Quartz, trained by Robert Cowell. He won well enough at Nottingham first time out and is surely destined for a big sprint victory this season. I would have been more confident but for being drawn 15 tomorrow but he looks worth supporting at 13-2.

In the 4.25 I’ve got to side with Fils Anges who got no run at all when a beaten favourite last time out. Michael Bell’s grey colt was gaining with every stride but the post came too soon in the Nottingham race won by Mayfield Girl. The form of the race may not be anything special but the extra furlong will help and Hayley Turner can guide him to victory. Mark Johnston runs Windhoek quite quickly after winning a valuable sales race here last month. That looked a better class of race than he faces tomorrow and it will be disappointing if he cannot remain unbeaten.

Away from Newmarket there are one or two horses worth noting for the season ahead. William Haggas is sending Sentaril to Goodwood to start her campaign. She looked a smart filly last season but never quite fulfilled the promise of her great run in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. She won over a mile on the all-weather without really having the run of the race and can confirm the placings with runner-up Burke’s Rock on the way to better things.

Sir Michael Stoute runs another useful sort in Enrol in the sprint handicap at Doncaster tomorrow evening. The lightly-raced daughter of Pivotal won two of her four starts as a three-year-old and is difficult to assess on that form. Cheveley Park will be hoping she can step up from handicaps to listed class later in the season and she will be a popular choice here. There is also a good quality card at Thirsk featuring the Thirsk Hunt Cup. David O’Meara’s stable continue to churn out the winners and he is well represented throughout the meeting. However, the draw has not been kind to his horses and course regular Dubai Dynamo could represent each-way value.

Rye House 2.05 Newmarket 7-1 Paddy Power
Spirit Quartz 2.35 Newmarket 13-2 Paddy Power
Fils Anges (NAP) 4.25 Newmarket 8-1 Paddy Power
Windhoek 5.00 Newmarket 11-8 Bet365
Sentaril (NB) 4.05 Goodwood 11-4 Bet Victor
Dubai Dynamo 4.35 Thirsk 16-1 Bet365
Enrol 6.45 Doncaster 3-1 Bet365