Tag: Spring Carnival

Crown Oaks Preview

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It’s Ladies Day at the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Thursday and 12 fillies contest the Group 1 Crown Oaks in race 8 on the card.

If you put any faith in statistics at all, you will probably not want to look any further than the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes for finding the winner here. Remarkably, 14 of the previous 20 winners have come via that race.

Unfortunately, that only narrows the field down to six but the first three of those are likely to be the relevant runners here. Thunder Lady came out on top ahead of Godolphin’s Abduction with Golconda running on in eye-catching style in fourth place. Tommy Berry rides Thunder Lady from barrier eight and he daughter of Mastercraftsman will surely have no problems lasting this trip.

Godolphin felt that Abduction saw too much daylight that day but she looks a very free-running sort and I am not entirely sure that this longer distance will suit her. She could not have a better rider than Kerrin McEvoy to nurse her home but I believe Thunder Lady will again come out on top. She is trained by John Sargent who won the race last year with Kirramosa.

At the available odds, I will also take an each-way bet on the fourth horse Golconda. She was a long way off the pace and had to race wide into the straight. Although she was never closer than at the finish, she did not lose any ground on the winner during the final sprint. At odds of around 25-1, she looks worth an interest.

Set Square was impressive in the Ethereal Stakes while Go Indy Go will have plenty of supporters after finishing third against the colts last time out. The bookmakers are having a hard time finding a clear favourite with Go Indy Go grouped with Robert Smerdon’s Lumosty and Crafty.

Lumosty won her maiden by nine lengths but could only manage eighth in the Guineas. She bounced back to form to win the Group 2 Fillies Classic by two and a half lengths last time. Crafty was game in defeat in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the Caulfield Classic. Both races were won by Smerdon’s Fontein Ruby who is also in the field but relatively friendless in the betting after fading last time.

Thunder Lady @7.70 Bet365

Golconda @26.0 Bet365

Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3

Myer Classic Preview

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The last of four Group 1 races at Flemington on Saturday is the $500,000 Myer Classic with a maximum field of 16 headed by Sweet Idea.

Gai Waterhouse trains the tough daughter of Snitzel who refused to be passed in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield last time. Although that was only a Group 2, it does look the best form on offer here and several of her vanquished rivals are back for another crack at her here.

The bookmakers have installed Tristarc fourth May’s Dream as the favourite to gain her revenge. She came from well off the pace and was forced to run wide into the straight but never looked like landing a blow. Darren Weir trains the filly who won the Australasian Oaks and will start from barrier 11 while Sweet Idea is in the inside berth. That seems to set up a similar scenario to Caulfield with Sweet Idea likely to play “catch me if you can”.

Tommy Berry will try to make every post a winning one on the four-year-old who already has two Group 2 races under her belt. She came close to Group 1 success when runner-up in the Memsie Stakes and fourth in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.

Chris Waller’s Catkins was beaten by her stablemate Red Tracer in this race last year but looks well held on third in the Tristarc. Damien Oliver has the ride on the daughter of Dubawi who had a perfect position to launch a challenge that day and there cannot have been any real excuses.

Girl Guide finished in second place and had a good sight of the leader from a long way out without being able to close her down. The Robert Smerdon-trained Politeness finished well to take fourth and connections are convinced that she will improve with a more even gallop. The unplaced Diamond Drille and Enquare will struggle to get involved in the finish but the one that caught my eye was Girl In Flight.

The grey does not have particularly inspiring form figures but ran on well in the home straight under hands and heels. She was always running into a pocket and could arguably have finished third with a clear passage. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride on her but she has received a terrible draw in barrier 17. She is showing at around 40-1 on the Tote as a result and could be one for a little each-way on the day.

Solicit has fared much better in barrier five for local trainers Matthew Ellerton and Simon Zahra. She got no run at all in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and is better judged on her second to Dear Demi in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley.

Sweet Idea @6.50 Sportsbet

Girl In Flight @21.0 Bet365 Non runner

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

Coolmore Stud Stakes Preview

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The Group 1 action at Flemington on Saturday begins with the Coolmore Stud Stakes in which Rich Enuff bids to regain the winning thread after his narrow defeat in the Caulfield Guineas.

Ken Key’s son of Written Tycoon was just run down in the closing stages by Shooting To Win after making most of the running over 1600m. The colt won his first three races in great style this spring including the Group 2 Danehill Stakes over 1200m. He was stepped up to 1400m next time in the Guineas Prelude and recorded another impressive victory but there were still a few concerns about the extended trip at Caulfield.

He is a naturally free-running colt and Michael Rodd had trouble settling him in the Guineas. He used up a lot of energy early in the race and did not quite last home. Rich Enuff has drawn barrier 10 but that is not a problem on the straight course. Barriers 8 and 9 have been the most successful in this race in the past and the only slight concern is whether the Guineas has left its mark on Rich Enuff. There has been no sign of it in his work which has been described as brilliant by connections. His form is outstanding and he is the one to beat here.

Gerald Ryan’s Rubick won the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes last time out and will start from barrier one under Kerrin McEvoy. John O’Shea’s Godolphin filly Earthquake is in the next barrier with James McDonald in the saddle. She is one of three fillies in the race and is yet to finish out of the money in eight starts. The famous blue colours will also be carried by Ghibellines.

Chris Waller’s Brazen Beau could be a danger having finished runner-up in the Group 1 J.J. Atkins Stakes. He then finished fifth in the Danehill so will have to improve to reverse the form with Rich Enuff. Earthquake is joined by Eloping and Bring Me The Maid as the fairer sex attempt to upset the boys in the sprinting division.

Eloping was third in the Group 2 McEwen Stakes behind Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee. She has since won the Group 3 Champagne Stakes and Listed Blue Sapphire Stakes and starts from barrier 12 under Stephen Baster. The dark horse of the race could be Joseph Pride’s Kuro who has won his last four races in Sydney. These included the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes but this is a step up in class.

Craig Williams rides Scissor Kick, trained by Paul Messara. He is tough and consistent and finished runner-up in the Group 1 Golden Rose over 1400m but is equally effective over this trip. He could be the each-way value but Rich Enuff looks the one to be on.

Rich Enuff @3.20 Ladbrokes

Lexus Stakes Preview

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Saturday’s Group 3 Lexus Stakes is the last chance for horses to book their place in the line-up for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. The race carries automatic qualification for the winner and all bar one of the runners still hold an entry in the big race.

Andrew Balding was forced to withdraw Side Glance from the Mackinnon Stakes with an injury but could still pick up a nice prize with Lord Van Percy. The four-year-old made his Australian debut in the Herbert Power Stakes earlier this month when he was a staying-on fifth behind Big Memory.

Kerrin McEvoy had his first ride on the gelding that day and he will have learned a great deal from the race. Lord Van Percy pulled hard early on and then had to switch wide into the home turn to make his run. He never looked like troubling the leaders but was only a length and a quarter behind Protectionist at the line. That horse was all the rage for the Melbourne Cup afterwards.

Big Memory held off Signoff by half a length and most pundits expect the form to be reversed here. That is down to Big Memory’s penalty plus the fact that he made no impression in the Caulfield Cup. To be fair, Tony McEvoy’s runner had a terrible draw that day and will find it much easier to get into a rhythm here.

Lord Van Percy, formerly “Van Percy” but renamed to race in Australia, has always been a decent handicapper in the UK. As a three-year-old he travelled well into his races but didn’t always find as much off the bridle as expected. He has raced in a hood for most of his career but seems more resilient this season, battling on well to beat Havana Cooler for a decent prize at Goodwood.

He followed that with a terrific run in the Ebor Handicap when second to Mutual Regard. The winner is a strong Irish fancy for Tuesday’s Cup and Lord Van Percy could well give the form a boost on Saturday. Lord Van Percy is part-owned by OTI Racing who almost won the Melbourne Cup with Luca Cumani’s Bauer in 2008.

Signoff also ran well in the Group 3 David Jones Cup and was under pressure a long way out in the Herbert Power. I just feel that McEvoy will be able to keep his mount closer to the pace this time and use his turn of foot to good effect.

Another horse familiar to UK racing fans is Caravan Rolls On who used to be in the care of Peter Chapple-Hyam. He won the Group 3 Geelong Cup last week but is still not certain of a place in Tuesday’s field so has one more crack at it on Saturday. Craig Williams has been booked to ride the seven-year-old who will start from barrier one. Shocking achieved the Lexus/Melbourne Cup double in 2009 but it is certainly a tall order.

Lord Van Percy @7-1 Bet365 Non-runner

Caravan Rolls On @9-1 Sportsbet

Victoria Derby Preview

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The $1.5million Victoria Derby has attracted a maximum field at Flemington on Saturday but that has not stopped punters piling in to back the Gai Waterhouse-trained Hampton Court.

Waterhouse trained the winner of this race back in 1995 with Nothin’ Leica Dane and Hampton Court has followed a very similar route. Both horses won the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick prior to coming here and the Melbourne Cup winning trainer is typically bullish about his prospects.

His victory over First Seal and Sweynesse certainly reads well with the latter running a decent race to finish eighth behind Adelaide in the Cox Plate last weekend. Hampton Court is by Redoute’s Choice and this will be a new trip for him. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy will also have to plot a passage through this large field from barrier eleven. McEvoy has never ridden a Victoria Derby winner and this will be his first ride on Hampton Court so there are reasons for opposing the short-priced favourite.

Damien Oliver has won this race four times and will fancy his chances aboard Preferment from barrier 6. The colt is still a maiden after six races but Chris Waller has fitted the blinkers for Saturday following his narrow defeat by Nozomi in the Geelong Classic.

One of the best trials for this race was the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase won by Moonovermanhattan. Craig Newitt faces a similar problem to McEvoy from barrier twelve but his mount overcame a wide draw to win last time and likes to be up with the pace. He was always tracking the leaders in the Vase and kept on well up the straight. He should confirm placings with the New-Zealand trained Atmosphere who was a length and three-quarters away in second but the unlucky horse was Bondeiger.

Danny O’Brien trains the War Pass colt who was shuffled back early on in the Vase. He attempted to make up ground turning for home but was almost brought to a standstill on the bend when colliding with a rival. It was to his credit that he stayed on again to be beaten only four lengths in seventh place. He is drawn in barrier 1 with Atmosphere in barrier 4 and I fancy his chances of turning the tables on that one.

Bondeiger had won his previous two starts and has been well supported this week in anticipation of a bold showing. I think it will be difficult to keep Moonovermanhattan out of the frame despite his draw and both he and Bondeiger represent good each-way chances against the favourite.

Moonovermanhattan @8-1 Ladbrokes

Bondeiger @9-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Mackinnon Stakes Preview

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There are four Group 1 races on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday including the $1million Mackinnon Stakes.

A year ago Andrew Balding’s Side Glance claimed the prize with a gutsy run, holding off Dear Demi by three-quarters of a length. The seven-year-old is rapidly becoming as well-known in Australia as he is in the UK after finishing third in the Caulfield Stakes and fourth in last week’s Cox Plate.

His run in the Cox Plate was typical in that he kept battling on when looking certain to be swamped by those finishing in behind. At the line he was barely half a length behind Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide on the wide outside. Included in a group of eight that crossed the line within a length were Foreteller, Happy Trails and Criterion.

You could make a case for each of them but the draw has favoured Side Glance (barrier 7) while Foreteller (10) and Happy Trails (13) must come from his outside. Criterion finished second in the Caulfield Stakes but I’m not sure that barrier one will suit him. He seems to hit a flat spot in his races before running on again and he may find himself trapped on the inner. Foreteller kept responding to pressure and has to be a contender if he can get a good position from the starting gate.

He’s Your Man is bidding for a hat-trick after winning the  Kingston Town Stakes and the Epsom Handicap. The six-year-old will break from barrier five and is an obvious threat while Caulfield Cup runner-up Rising Romance will also be popular with punters.

Jamie Spencer is at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup this weekend so the ride on Side Glance goes to Craig Williams. He won the Mackinnon Stakes on Alcopop in 2012 and there is no better judge of pace around Flemington.

I would have fancied Roger Varian’s Farraaj to run a big race with a low draw but he is on the wide outside in barrier 15. Adelaide managed to overcome a similar handicap last week but Farraaj is much more of a free-running type and won’t be ideally suited by dropping in behind.

Mick Channon did well with Amralah to win nice races at Newbury and Haydock and he now makes his Australian debut for Robert Hickmott. His Haydock win over Hillstar reads well after the runner-up won the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine. The Melbourne Cup was his intended target but he is yet to prove that he stays that distance.

Foreteller @11.0 Sportsbet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

*Side Glance was withdrawn through injury