Tag: spring racing carnival odds

Melbourne Cup To Remain On Home Soil

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The “race that stops a nation” might sound clichéd, but it’s pretty close to the mark. At 3pm AEDT tomorrow (Tuesday), Australians across the expanse of the continent will stop work and either watch or listen to the AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup from Flemington in Melbourne. Even the most blasé will be quietly cheering on their Melbourne Cup betting pick from the office sweep, or the horse with a quirky name or wearing their favourite colours.

For those hoping to combine the day with the real thing, there are a staggering 42 TAB or picnic meetings scheduled – from Ascot to Alice Springs, Mount Isa to Morphettville and everywhere in between. Racing is big business in Sydney, but Royal Randwick’s biggest crowd of the year is Melbourne Cup Day. Meanwhile, the Flemington Lawn on the first Tuesday in November is one of the few places that you are likely to witness someone dressed as a horse watching the horses go by – it’s a day where anything goes trackside.
A Melbourne Cup deserves Melbourne weather

An iconic Melbourne day deserves some of the city’s unpredictable weather, with the forecast for a cool and clear morning giving way to afternoon showers with winds up to 20km/h. The latter is a major factor at Flemington – the wind sweeps up along the Maribyrnong River from nearby Port Phillip Bay. Astute jockeys know where it’s important to find cover from the wind, which was a huge factor here on Turnbull Stakes day.

There’s only been minimal rainfall since Derby Day so the track should again fall into the good (4) range and there’s unlikely to be an upgrade if it stays cool. The track raced very evenly on Saturday, so it isn’t terribly relevant that the rail remains in the true position. It also remains a day where it’s bloody tough to find a winner – the smallest fields contain 14 runners with the bulk closer to capacity.

Massive public money a boon for punters

The Melbourne Cup is unlike any other race of the year for serious punters. Public money floods into the betting pools like no other day, and the bookies are more than happy to let them get on. The favourites are almost always under the odds (as is the case with the top two, Hartnell and Jameka, this year) but there’s a stack of value on the rest of the genuine contenders.

The blanket media coverage and myriad expert opinions make it tough to stay objective, and as Prince Of Penzance showed in 2015, history can count for nothing depending on the circumstances of the day. But it would surprise if the winner did not emerge from this quartet – #9 Almoonqith ($31 with William Hill), #11 Grand Marshal ($34), #12 Jameka ($7.50) and #17 Almandin ($11). The Caulfield Cup winner Jameka just might turn out be in the class of Makybe Diva but can’t be seriously entertained at such a short quote.

Waller to end his Cup drought

Instead, Grand Marshal looks the bulletproof pick. Trainer Chris Waller presides over the dominant stable in the country, but the nation’s biggest prize has so far eluded him. He left Flemington gutted after Preferment fell short last year, but was buoyant after his Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) quinella of Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman. His seven-year-old gelding also won the Sydney Cup (3200m) over the stablemate in the autumn, and he’s had a generously spaced prep heading into his grand final. Notably, Grand Marshal missed his planned lead-up run in the Geelong Cup due to administrative oversight, which will make a nice headline for the local sub-editors should he pinch the ultimate prize in Australian racing. Good luck punters!

Field Locked In For 2016 Melbourne Cup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

From the moment that correct weight is announced for the final race on Victoria Derby Day, the focus shifts immediately to Tuesday’s AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m). The field was finalised today after Oceanographer, one of Godolphin’s five runners in the race, won the G3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) today.

The field of 24 runners again underlines the international interest in the world’s richest handicap race, which will be run at Flemington on Tuesday at 3pm. Just one locally bred horse, Caulfield Cup winner and second favourite Jameka ($7.50 with William Hill), will take its place in the field. A total of 10 internationally-trained runners have earned a spot in the field (eight from Europe and one each from Japan and New Zealand), with the remainder bred overseas but trained locally. So, where is the value to be found in the 2016 Melbourne Cup betting markets?

Payne’s legacy looms large

Cup Day is a wonderfully unique day on the Australian sporting calendar. It’s a public holiday in Melbourne, so the celebrations stretch will beyond the confines of the Flemington track. TAB outlets are packed as soon as their doors open, as once-a-year punters scour the form guide in search of the ultimate return for their annual flutter.

Those numbers are also likely to be bolstered after last year’s fairytale victory of Prince Of Penzance. Rated a 150-1 outsider, the six-year-old gelding scored in a massive upset. It also marked the first time a female jockey, Michelle Payne, had ridden a Cup winner. Payne’s profile now sits alongside those of the nation’s greatest sporting heroes. Katelyn Mallyon will be hoping to emulate Payne’s achievement on Assign this year.

Prince took the reign

The victory of Prince Of Penzance flew in the face of several long established trends, as the Melbourne Cup is a bloody tough race to win. Primarily, he was unproven at 3200 metres, but Payne made the most of a rails run after Frankie Dettori (on runner-up Max Dynamite) wiped out one-quarter of the field with an ill-timed shift at the 350m-mark, which earned him a fine and a one-month suspension. It’s a combination of factors that generally add up to just a handful of Cup runners having any hope of victory – the ability to run out a strong 3200 metres on firm going under handicap conditions. Some are weighted ideally, some have great staying ability and others love a hard track, but the combination proves a death knell for the bulk of the international contenders.

The winning formula

But having eliminated those without a genuine chance (the marathon trip from Europe, a long break between runs, weight, barrier and questionable Northern Hemisphere form are other impediments worth consideration), there are some proven filters to run through the remaining contenders to devise a list of potential winners. In the 24 editions of the Melbourne Cup since 1991, 17 winners had returned a career-best rating at their previous start. This tells us that the horse has been given the best possible preparation and is in the best form of his or her career. A short campaign in the autumn carnivals (in Australia or New Zealand) also suits Melbourne Cup runners. This factor has produced seven winners in the past 16 years.

First-up drought to end?

Normally, it’s worth steering clear of the international runners that have not had a previous run in Australia. Since 1993, when Vintage Crop won for Ireland, there have been more than 80 international starters entered in the Cup without a previous run in Australia. A handful has come extraordinarily close to victory but records show they all fell short. It’s actually a very weak Cup field that will again feature just a handful of winning chances – they include the Japanese runner Curren Mirotic, Wicklow Brave (barrier 24 and Dettori aboard aren’t ideal), Bondi Beach, Almoonqith (but must be ridden aggressively) and, at a stretch, Exospheric and Hartnell. Watch for our late mail update on Cup Eve.