Cricket: Carlton Mid Tri Series Final Preview

Australia’s summer ODI tri-series traditionally features a three game final series and a much longer round robin format that gives a much better indication of form for the big final(s).  This year though, in the absence of a protracted series on account of the Cricket World Cup, the final is a little harder to predict.

On the face of it, Australia have the upper hand after going through the tournament unbeaten until now.  However, if Friday night’s match at the WACA was any indication, the pitch might have a few uneven demons that could even out the fixture.  England’s familiarity with the surface could prove the only advantage they hold, that, or the weird phenomenon that sees Australia struggle after most Alan Border Medal ceremonies.

The Last Time These Two Met

Australia won both the round robin games against England.  In the first match-up of the series in Sydney, England couldn’t recover from two wickets in the opening over and eventually lost by three wickets while trying to defend just 234.  Seven days later in Hobart Ian Bell led England to 303 but once again they couldn’t stop Steven Smith (102*) and Australia running over them.  England scored 303 against a much different bowling attack and given their top order stutters in other games it’s hard to see them getting near 300 again today.

The Teams

Australia (likely): 1 David Warner, 2 Aaron Finch, 3 Steven Smith, 4 George Bailey (capt), 5 Mitchell Marsh, 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 James Faulkner, 9 Mitchell Johnson, 10 Mitchell Starc, 11 Josh Hazlewood.

Despite trialling a few different combinations in the series thus far, the Australian number one line-up is relatively settled.  The side expected to play today is likely to be the side that contests the bulk of the World Cup games, save for Michael Clarke.  Mitchell Johnson returns to action for the first time in the series.

England (likely): 1 Ian Bell, 2 Moeen Ali, 3 James Taylor, 4 Joe Root, 5 Eoin Morgan (capt), 6 Ravi Bopara, 7 Jos Buttler (wk), 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 James Anderson, 11 Steven Finn.

England will not make any changes to the side that has remained unchanged in their last three games.

The Key Players

Mitchell Johnson – Mitchell Starc’s success in the series – he has 12 wickets to top the wicket takers chart – shows just how lethal Australia could be with two genuinely quick left armers who swing it.  Therefore, Mitchell Johnson’s inclusion is important to see how Australia’s game plan develops. i.e. is there room for another left armer in Faulkner? Will they play a spinner at all during the World Cup?

England’s Bowlers – Rather than single out one English bowler who has performed well in the series up to this point, and one that will take wickets again, we have chosen to earmark the pace quartet as being crucial to this match up.  Finn has ten wickets for the series; Woakes eight; Anderson five; all averaging less than 23.  Even Stuart Broad hinted at a return to form with two against India a few days ago for his first wickets in the series.  On an uneven WACA wicket, these four could be crucial.

The Match Odds*

Australia – $1.37

England – $3.11

*Courtesy of Sportsbet Australia.

The Prediction

We’re giving England a chance only if they bowl first and take 3 or 4 early wickets.  Otherwise, Australia have too much depth and should be too strong.  Australia by 60 runs or 4 wickets.

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Cricket: Australia dominant in Sydney draw

Australia wrapped up the Border-Gavaskar Trophy with a dominant display in a drawn fourth and final test in Sydney.  The match went right to the final session as India battled bravely to avoid a third defeat in the condensed test series.  Set a final day target of 349, India looked relatively untroubled when they went into tea at 160/2 with Kohli and Viajy in command, needing a further 189 for victory.  Of the three possible results, only an Indian victory or a draw looked possible.  However, a flurry of wickets in the final session (3 for 10 at one stage when Kohli, Raina and Saha were all dismissed) ensured a tense finish for the sizeable Sydney crowd.  Ajinkya Rahane and Bhuvneshwar Kumar were able to save the match for India; lasting 12 overs, including ten with the second new ball.

The decision to take the new ball may in hindsight have been incorrect.  Josh Hazlewood had the old ball reversing nicely, and series leading wicket-taker Nathan Lyon had it dancing out of the footmarks on a wearing surface.  While the new ball decision may have contributed to the draw, the docile Sydney pitch also played it’s part.  Lacking in pace or movement, the SCG joined the other venues in the series in contributing to a batsman friendly series that produced 5870 runs across the four tests.

Two players in particular dined out; Steven Smith for 700, Virat Kohli for 692. On the other side, Suresh Raina contributed 0 from his two innings’ in the Sydney test.

The Sydney test started, not for the first time in the series, with hundreds to David Warner and Steven Smith.  In fact most of the Australian top order got amongst the runs in a daunting first up effort of 572/7 declared.  Of note, was Shane Watsons handy half century which probably did enough to see him on the Ashes plane, but would have still irked plenty of Australian fans.  Chris Rogers missed a hundred too, but he scored six consecutive fifties to close out the series.

India’s reply was typically pugnacious.  On plenty of occasions in this series their batsman have replied well to an imposing first innings target (probably while cussing their bowlers lack of control) and this was no different.  Two test batsman KL Rahul registered a fighting first hundred; he combined nicely with Virat Kohli (147) to ease India past the follow on and make the day task much simpler.  The strengthening made to the lower order paid dividends as Ashwin, Kumar, Saha and Shami all contributed to the cause.

When they were eventually dismissed 97 behind they needed some disciplined bowling to prevent Australia from dictating the game and the timing of any declaration.  They were not able to restrict the scoring rate however, and conceded 6.27 runs per over over the 40 second innings overs.  Australia therefore raced to 251/6 with Rogers (56), Smith (71) and Burns (66) all boosting averages and strike rates against a weak attack.

Despite the late wobbles, India survived defeat in what was a fair reflection of the game.  Although the 2-0 was deserved, the Indian side showed a lot more fight than previous touring teams and have discovered some important points about their team.  Ashen was excellent in overseas conditions for the first time, KL Rahul could be a long term opening solution, and Rahane and Kohli were confirmed as World Class.

For Australia, the new captain is now one of the brightest players in the World, and while there are question marks over 3 and 6 (Burns and Marsh too) the core group of contributors all played well and got through the series injury free (Michael Clarke aside).

The teams will now compete in a Carlton Mid Triangular Series with England to warm-up for the Cricket World Cup.  The action begins January 16.

India 475 (Kohli 147, Rahul 111, Starc 3-106) and 7 for 252 (Vijay 80) drew with Australia 7 for 572 dec (Smith 117, Warner 101, Rogers 95, Shami 5-112) and 6 for 251 dec (Smith 71, Burns 66, Rogers 56, Ashwin 4-105)

Cricket: Draw settles series in Australia’s favour

Australia missed out on an opportunity to take a 3-0 lead in their series against India when the third test concluded in Melbourne yesterday, favouring instead, a safety first approach and an unassailable lead.

Much of the final day centred around Steven Smith’s declaration, and rather than give his bowlers plenty of time to bowl India out, Smith opted strangely to put the series beyond doubt (in the process possibly trying to give Shaun Marsh the opportunity to register a first home century) and ensure his side could not lose.  He declared Australia’s second innings at 318/9 to leave India a chase of 384 in 70 overs.

The total was never an option, especially as India fell to an alarming 19/3.  They did however manage to hold out.  They were six down when the game was abruptly called off by Smith and MS Dhoni; Australia running out of time but still winning the Border-Gavaskar trophy.

It was up to Virat Kohli and Ajinkya Rahane to do the bulk of the rescue work, not for the first time in the match.  The two look the most assured as Australia struggled to take the final wickets on a flat MCG wicket that produced its first draw for 17 years.  While they both fell in the final session, Dhoni, Cheteshwar Pujara and Ravichandran Aswin all took up enough valuable time to avoid defeat.  Earlier in the match Kohli and Rahane had also starred in a 262 run first innings partnership that saw India respond to Australia’s first innings 530 with 465 of their own.  Rahane had 147 and Kohli 169 in highly entertaining knocks both for their batsmanship and the confrontations with Mitchell Johnson.

Australia should never been allowed to set the first innings foundations for the fifth day win.  They were 216/5 when new boy Joe Burns was dismissed, but as there tail has done so often during the series, wagged as if it were a labrador at a dinner party.  Australia’s lower order (partnerships 6-10) have contributed 784 runs this series, India’s 389, and that difference was glaringly obvious as the Aussies recovered.  Steven Smith was yet again the hero for Australia.  He dug in for another century (third of the series, fifth of the year, seventh of career) and scored 192 important runs.  Ryan Harris was also a surprise package with the bat, enhancing his reputation as the hardest training bowler of his batting, and scoring 74.

Harris was also the most likely to take Indian wickets on the final day.  He, along with Johnson and Josh Hazlewwod, had two wickets, but he easily look the most threatening.  He didn’t have the ball in his hand at the time but he undoubtedly found Steven Smith’s decision not to bowl the final four overs of the game bizarre.

Four wickets in twenty four balls was a distinct possibility given India’s fragile lower order.  In the end, he must have determined the best retirement gift for MS Dhoni was to save him a possible loss.

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Australia 530 (Smith 192) and 9 for 318 dec (Marsh 99, Rogers 69) drew with India 465 (Kohli 169, Rahane 147, Harris 4-70) and 6 for 174 (Kohli 54)

Cricket: Australia look to overpower troubled India

Bay 13 at the MCG on Boxing Day is an institution.  Hot, rowdy, and full of Australia hundreds.  In the past Australian centuries on the 26th of December had been on the Christmas wish-lists of many Bay 13 cricket fans, and Santa almost always delivered.  This year, Warner and Smith will be leading the charge, and Bay 13 will be expecting big runs from their boys against an Indian bowling attack that last match struggled to dislodge any of Australia’s final four batsman.

A series that started with so much promise appears to be heading in the same direction as most other Indian tours of Australia – a whitewash.  It shouldn’t be though – the Indians have been competitive (rarely with the ball, but definitely with the bat) throughout and could have taken something from either of the first two games by winning the key sessions.

The viewing therefore, from Bay 13, will be of that of a dominant team against an underdog.  Powerful and confident Australia against an India side desperate to plug a leaky ship.  Either way and whoever you support, it should make for intriguing viewing.

The Last Time These Two Met

Brisbane served up an anti-climax after such a fascinating beginning to the series in Adelaide.  Although the Indians had two moments of opportunity on day one and day three the match finished abruptly and in a state of unrest.  Mitchell Johnson was the chief destroyer in the four wicket win, but it has also emerged that a dressing room spat between Virat Kohli and Shikhar Dhawan played a part too.

The Teams

Australia (likely): 1 Chris Rogers, 2 David Warner, 3 Shane Watson, 4 Steven Smith (capt), 5 Shaun Marsh, 6 Joe Burns, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Mitchell Johnson, 9 Ryan Harris, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Nathan Lyon.

India (likely): 1 M Vijay, 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Ajinkya Rahane, 6 Rohit Sharma, 7 MS Dhoni (capt,wk), 8 R Ashwin, 9 Bhuvneshwar Kumar/Varun Aaron, 10 Umesh Yadav, 11 Ishant Sharma.

The Key Players

Brad Haddin – Michael Clarke came out during the week in full support of his struggling wicket-keeper demanding he is a part of the Ashes squad next year.  However, Haddin’s form with the bat will need to drastically improve over the coming game to guarantee a plane seat.  Often the saviour for the home side, Haddin has been so short of runs in the series that Murphy (Law) is telling me he’s a good tip for top scorer in this one.

Ishant Sharma – The giant fast bowler has been in the spotlight this tour but not always for the right reasons.  There were rumours he was late to day four of the Brisbane test then had to buy food outside of the ground and wasn’t allowed back in, and he was also fined some of his match fee for offensive language.  Bowling wise he has mixed the good with the bad, and has struggled to find the consistency needed for the most experience bowler in the side.  Perhaps his three wickets in Australia’s second innings in Brisbane could turn around his fortunes.

The Odds*

Australia – $1.56

Draw – $4.00

India – $6.00

*International Cricket odds courtesy of BetEasy.

The Prediction

The media focus this week has been on India’s shambolic Brisbane defeat and the rumoured disharmony in the camp.  Therefore it’s difficult to predict anything other than an Australian victory.  There are some injury concerns for the hosts including Shaun March and Shane Watson but any replacements should be able to build on the Brisbane momentum and send Australia three clear.

Also have a look at these BetEasy options:

Highest Opening Partnership – India $2.15

Man of the Match – Brad Haddin $34.00

Cricket: Mean Johnson inspires Aussie win

Mitchell Johnson returned to his aggressive bearded best on day four of the second Border-Gavaskar test in Brisbane with an emphatic display of angry seam bowling that temporarily reduced India to 117/6 and ultimately delivered a four wicket win.

The match didn’t follow the obvious theme established in game one.  In fact India were at several times in significant positions of strength before either gifting Australia back the momentum or having it wrestled back by Mitchell Johnson.

The imploding version happened initially during their first effort at bat.  After surviving a sweltering hot first day to finish on 311/4 the Indians struggled on day two, giving away their next six wickets for the addition of just 97 further runs.  The wickets of Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, MS Dhonia and Ravichandran Ashwin undid Murali Vijay’s sensational effort of 144.  Only tiredness managed to dislodge Vijay when he lost concentration and tried to hit Lyon out of the ground.  The same couldn’t be said for the rest of the order as they lost their advantage to Josh Hazlewood and looseness.

Despite the collapse, the tourists were still in control as Australia failed to impress in their first innings.  They themselves fell to 247/6, still 161 behind.  Cue Johnson the batsman to rescue the situation and thrash the questionable short pitch bowling tactic.  Johnson had already been reminded that he had taken few wickets in the series (and none in the first innings) which appeared to spurn him on.  His response was to remind the Indian batsmen how few runs some of them had scored as he tore into the Indian attack for 88.  His role was the aggressor in a partnership with century maker and first time captain Steven Smith, who continued his fine form for 133.  Even Mitchell Starc (52), Nathan Lyon (23), and Hazlewood (32) got in on the action to rub salt into the fast bowlers’ wounds – Australia led by 97.

India survived the night – comfortably reaching 71/1.  However, Shikhar Dhawan couldn’t bat in the morning after taking an unpopular knock in the practice nets, leaving Virat Kohli just five minutes to try and settle into his work.  He couldn’t and India lost the plot to a menacing Johnson.  His morning spell was worth 3-14 and in truth was the winning of the game.

A target of just 128 was never going to truly test Australia, and even though they did lose six wickets getting there, that was in a final session that drifted in a lazy manner until the end, rather than any great Indian bowling.  Chris Rogers guided the chase skilfully outlining his benefit to Australia in a range of conditions.  He backed up his first innings 55 with a second 55 to ease any nerves in the Australian camp.  Steven Smith narrowly took out the man of the match award from Johnson and Hazlewood for his third score in the series at a crucial time.

Once more the game could easily be classified as times of fight vs. times of one-sidedness.  We fear now that most of the fight may have left the Indians as they resign themselves to another overseas whitewash.  That and their inability to take twenty wickets means they’ll struggle in the rest of the series.  Unibet agrees with their just updated series odds below:

Series Odds*

Australia 4-0 – $2.20

Australia 3-1 – $5.50

Australia 3-0 – $3.5

Australia 2-1 – $12.00

Australia 2-0 – $13

Drawn 2-2 – $21

*Series odds from Unibet.

Australia 505 (Smith 133, Johnson 88) and 6 for 130 (Rogers 55) beat India 408 (Vijay 144, Rahane 81) and 224 (Dhawan 81, Johnson 4-61) by four wickets

Cricket: Smith leads Australian team full of changes

The Gabba is the new WACA as far as Australian cricket pitches go.  It’s full of pace, bounce, and for the Indian batsmen, fear.  Fresh from a modest paced and decidedly easy batting surface in Adelaide the Indians now face a much sterner test on the more bowler friendly Brisbane strip.  The surface is expected to be much more like the surfaces the Indian batsmen have historically struggled on; the recipe is the WACA from 2012 where India were bundled out for 161 and 171.

That puts India on the back foot immediately, but there could be silver linings in the return of their inspiration leader and the vast number of changes to the opposing side.  Both sides have new captains at the helm for game two; one with all the experience under the sun, and the other with zero – thrust into the spotlight as the third youngest captain in Australia’s test history.  If Steven Smith’s batting is any indication as to captaincy ability, he’ll be fine, but the World will be watching in earnest as to whether he can command the respect of senior players like Shane Watson, Brad Haddin and Warner who all would have had their own captaincy ambitions.

MS Dhoni certainly commands respect and he’ll also bring a more conservative game plan to his teams approach; he’ll likely be a little more defensive / pragmatic than Virat Kohli.  The Gabba surface won’t only favour the home side; Ishant Sharma, Varun Aaron and Mohammed Shami could find assistance in the bouncy deck if they pitch the ball up and don’t get carried away bowling short stuff.  They will, however, need to bowl a much tighter line to David Warner if they don’t want the game to get away from them in the first session again.

The Last Time These Two Met

Game one will go down in history as an absolute classic, not only for the emotional ties to Phillip Hughes’ but also for the scintillating individual performances.  Two players scored hundreds in both innings (David Warner and Virat Kohli) and Steven Smith scored an unbeaten hundred followed by an uneaten fifty.  Then there was Nathan Lyon.  In fairness Australia were the better side through most of the game and will take more momentum and confidence into this one.

The Teams

Australia: 1 Chris Rogers, 2 David Warner, 3 Shane Watson, 4 Steven Smith (capt), 5 Shaun Marsh, 6 Mitchell Marsh, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Mitchell Johnson, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Nathan Lyon.

Injuries to Michael Clarke and Ryan Harris sees Shaun Marsh and Josh Hazlewood given a chance to prove their wares.  Marsh is well tested at this level and should suit the lower order more than his previous struggles at 3.  Exciting quickie Josh Hazlewood earns his baggy green on the back of some impressive one day form.  Mitchell Starc replaces the ineffective Peter Siddle in the other change.

India: 1 M Vijay, 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Ajinkya Rahane, 6 Rohit Sharma, 7 MS Dhoni (capt,wk), 8 R Ashwin, 9 Varun Aaron, 10 Ishant Sharma, 11 Umesh Yadav.

MS Dhoni is expected to return to captain the side.  He’ll add some middle order stability that was lacking with Wriddhiman Saha in the side.  Ravichandran Ashwin is also added at the expense of Karn Sharma.

The Key Players

Steven Smith – Everything Smith does in this test will be questioned.  The toss, the bowling rotations, the field placements and his batting.  He can probably withstand the heightened attention on his batting and the quality of the Australian team should paper over any cracks in his captaincy.  Much like the coaching of John Buchanan when he inherited such a strong side nothing could go wrong.

Rohit Sharma – For someone that has two ODI double hundreds (including a top score of 264) Sharma hasn’t exactly excelled in the test environment.  Admittedly he has been in and out of the squad and also frustratingly waiting patiently for a chance while Dravid, Laxman, and Tendulkar finished their careers.  However, his record needs to improve.  He needs to kick on from the starts.  He needs a big score.

The Odds*

Australia – $1.55

Draw – $4.25

India – $5.00

*International Cricket odds courtesy of Luxbet.

The Prediction

Australia will be far to strong on the bouncy surface.  The bounce tests the Indian batsmen techniques too much and all of them are susceptible to defending with their hands and half a bat outside off stump.  Expect the Australia seamers to have a field day and win this one by an innings.