Tag: Stormers

Super Rugby Round 5 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

No one could have accurately predicted the spanners thrown into the mix by the Lions and the Highlanders in last week’s Super Rugby action.  Round 5 shouldn’t feature as many potential banana skins, but it probably includes more games that could go either way.  Particularly, the Chiefs start to their South African tour against the table topping Stormers.

Our picks for Round 5 below:

Hurricanes v Blues

Hurricanes – $1.21

Blues – $4.50

John Kirwan is under all sorts of pressure and an away match against the New Zealand conference’s only unbeaten team is not what he needs.  Thus, the Blues could be heading back over the Bombay Hills winless and coachless after they lose to the Hurricanes on Friday night.  Coming off the bye won’t be a factor for the Canes, nor will throwing Nehe Milner-Shudder a first Super Rugby start.  Hurricanes too strong from 6-13, they’ll win by 13+.

Force v Rebels

Force – $1.62

Rebels – $2.30

The poor cousins of the Australian conference will battle it out in what shapes to be an incredibly even contest.  For once the Force are favourites (they have won just two of the eight encounters between the teams in Super Rugby history), probably because of the home advantage rather than compelling form.  Both sides have won one game thus far, both coming in the first week against more fancied opponents.  Since then though it’s been slim pickings.  The Rebels had a bye last week too, but in their last match were unlucky in a narrow loss to the Brumbies.  The Force seem to be getting worse, so we’re backing the Rebels by 1-12.

Crusaders v Lions

Crusaders – $1.09

Lions – $8.00

There’s is zero possibility of the Lions doing to the Crusaders what they did to the Blues last week.  The Crusaders will be far too strong at home, and I for one like their approach of using Dan Carter at 12.   The All Blacks will like the approach too.  Because of Aaron Cruden’s kicking woes (you can’t play him in a World Cup final at the moment), they need to see Slade at ten to see how he’s progressing, but also need Carter on the paddock because he might be the best option even with all the injuries.  The return of Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock also delivers a big boost for the home side.  Crusaders 13+.

Highlanders v Waratahs

Highlanders – $2.40

Waratahs – $1.59

We might be the only ones but we like the Highlanders in this one.  The New Zealand side have shown a resolute defence in the tournament thus far and that’s exactly what they need to contain the talented Waratahs backs.  Israel Folau is expected to spend some time in the centres, creating a mouth watering showdown against All Black Malakai Fekitoa.  Fekitoa’s defence has improved markedly since becoming an All Black and has added breakdown turnovers to his repertoire; the winner of that particular contest could determine the overall victor.  The Waratahs are unchanged and despite them having the better overall record, we’ll go Highlanders 1-12.

Reds v Brumbies

Reds – $3.60

Brumbies – $1.30

Unfortunately, this match is a foregone conclusion.  The Brumbies are the best team in the conference, and the Reds are a rabble of misfits and past performers.  They’re also badly affected by injuries with James O’Connor again ruled out, Lachie Turner sitting out due to a concussion and Quade Cooper still on the sidelines.  They were well off the pace against last week and don’t deserve much attention against the Brumbies.  Brumbies 13+.

Stormers v Chiefs

Stormers – $1.75

Chiefs – $2.10

This is the toughest game of the round to call.  The table topping Stormers against the third placed Chiefs is a dream come true for Rugby fans who are noticing their sport suddenly lose marketshare to cricket.  The fifth round rugby savour will match up two of the more dangerous midfielders in the world – Sonny Bill Williams and Damian de Allende.  The match up between Liam Messam and Duane Vermeulen is also worth the admission alone.  Both teams have opted for a significant number of changes to their teams, presumably managing the workload of a busy calendar year.  We’ll vote against the masses and pick the Chiefs 1-12.  We think they’ll be embarrassed by last week and bounce back strongly.

Cheetahs v Sharks

Cheetahs – $2.15

Sharks – $1.72

Two teams who are playing hot and cold rugby face off and make the final match of the round also difficult to predict.  The Cheetahs have two wins and the Sharks, surprisingly, have just one.  Bismarck du Plessis returns to lead the Sharks, and former England international Mouritz Botha also enters the fray.  Free State Stadium may give the Cheetahs an advantage if they can recover from the shock points ambush inflicted by Handre Pollard and the Bulls last week.  Cheetahs 1-12.

The Multi

A head to head multi on these selections pays $38.40

A margin mutli on these selections pays $282.64

Super Rugby Round 4 Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Rugby continues to throw up its share of surprises after a couple of absolute shockers in Round 4.  The jet-setting Chiefs suffered their first loss of the year to fellow New Zealand outfit, the Highlanders, and the Blues lost at home to the perennial under-achevers, the Lions in a match that heaps even more pressure on coach John Kirwan.

Not only was Round 4 difficult on punters, it was also a difficult watch for rugby fans.  The games were incredibly boring, and only the Bulls and Brumbies were worth watching.  Here’s our take on Super Rugby Round 4.

Chiefs (17) v Highanders (20)

An error prone performance subjected the Chiefs to their first loss of the 2015 campaign and with it costed them top spot on the Super Rugby ladder.  Friday night’s poor execution was in stark to their exemplary performance of a week ago against the Crusaders, but was somewhat understandable in the face of committed Highlander’s defence.

The sloppy loss is not worth panicking over, however it does reinforce Steve Hansen’s comments about rugby getting boring if teams continue to play a high defensive line and place too great an emphasis on killing opposition momentum rather than countering it with their own.  No heroes to point out for either side.

Chiefs: Tries – Penalty try 2, Pen – A.Cruden, Con – A.Cruden 2

Highlanders: Tries – P.Osborne, Pen – L.Sopoaga 3, M.Banks 2

Brumbies (27) v Force (15)

The Brumbies were the most efficient Australian conference side of the round.  They secured a four try bonus point win in comfortable circumstance against a trying Western Force side, who despite asking the Brumbies to make 234 tackles in the game, couldn’t find any real momentum.

The skill of the Brumbies lies in their ability to soak up vast amounts of defensive pressure, which came in spades on Friday night, but was suitably death with for the third week in a row.

Even Nick Cummins return to the score sheet wasn’t enough to spark the Force.  They did improve from a week ago against the Highlanders, but they need to get more inventive on attack to compete regularly.

Brumbies: Tries – R.Arnold, J.Tomane, B.Alexander, N.White, Pen – C.Lealiifano, Con – C.Lealiifano 2

W.Force: Tries – N.Cummins, S.Mafi, Pen – Z.Holmes, Con – Z.Holmes

Blues (10) v Lions (13)

The Blues are in crisis mode after their fourth straight loss.  They are now the only team without a win in 2015, and looking increasingly like welcoming a new coach at some stage during the year.  The Blues fell from 10-3 up to lose to one of the least successful franchises in the history of Super Rugby.

The home defeat was especially disappointing given the Blues actually dominated in every facet of the game.  Sure, they lack leadership – Kain, Cowan and Braid are asked to shoulder too much responsibility, but they have All Blacks in Piatau, Halai and Saili who need to start shepherding the backline and making more penetrative plays when offered the opportunity.

Well done to the Lions for sticking at it in Albany, exceptional resolve.

Blues: Tries – J.Kaino, Pen – I.West, Con – I.West

Lions: Tries – R.Combrinck, Pen – E.Jantjies 2, Con – E.Jantjies

Reds (5) v Waratahs (23)

Folau is inside the top five for defenders beaten, offloads, metres and carries.  The attacking weapon is one of the reasons the Waratahs have fought back so strongly from their shock first round defeat.  Him, and the rest of the backline that is.  The uber-talented backs including the likes of Foley, Beale, Ashley-Cooper and Betham were excellent against the Reds despite some moments of sloppiness.

Reds could be in for a long season.

Reds: Tries – M.Kotze

Waratahs: Tries – B.Foley, P.Betham, Pen – B.Foley 3, Con – B.Foley 2

Cheetahs (20) v Bulls (39)

The game of the round featured a plethora of tries and the first time we were able to bring out the drop goal on the match scoreboard below.  Handre Pollard got the entire set of point options (try, conversion, penalty, droppy) in a characteristically awesome individual display.  The Bulls now look super dangerous, and if I was going to place any Super Rugby bet this week, it would be on them to win the South African conference.

The Cheetahs have been very decent this year, and they were unfortunate to run into such an emphatic Bulls side, to end their unbeaten run.

Pollard could not have asked for a better platform from his forwards that put in an impressive shift and completely dominated their opponents.  The Cheetahs pack showed some signs of weakness that will need to be addressed before the meet the Sharks this week.

Cheetahs: Tries – R.Rhule, B.Prinsloo, Pen – J.Pietersen 2, Con – J.Pietersen 2

Bulls: Tries – H.Pollard, B.Basson, J.Serfontein, Pen – H.Pollard 5, Con – H.Pollard 3, Drop – H.Pollard

Stormers (29) v Sharks (13)

The Stormers remain unbeaten and at the peak of the Super Rugby summit after a win against pre-tournament favourites the Sharks.  The Stormers flawless start to the season is showing no signs of slowing, after an imperious display in this match.  The Sharks who we gave a real chance to, failed to get in to the contest, and are now languishing in 10th position on the ladder.

Stormers centre Damian de Allende was arguably the player of the round.

Stormers: Tries – J.Kotze, Penalty try, Pen – D.Catrakilis 4, K.Coleman, Con – D.Catrakilis, K.Coleman

Sharks: Tries – P.Lambie, Pen – P.Lambie 2, Con – P.Lambie

Super Rugby Round 3 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s that time of the week again, Super Rugby Round 3 Preview with odds from Sportingbet Australia.

Highlanders v Reds

Highlanders – $1.35

Reds – $3.25

James O’Connor’s return from rehab Europe is the major feature of Round 3’s opener at Forsyth Barr.  The Reds are the underdogs for their trip to Dunedin despite their strong performance against the Force last week, and will look to the former Wallaby to provide the inspiration.  The Highlanders have gone for Marty Banks instead of Lima The Highlanders will be without Lima Sopoaga who hasn’t trained all week.  Just one spot separates the two teams on the Super Rugby ladder so it should be a close encounter.  In the end we’re tipping the Highlanders backline to be the difference in a 11 point win to the home side.

Force v Hurricanes

Force – $2.10

Hurricanes – $1.75

The Force have an appealing record against the Hurricanes having won just 1 match in the prior 8 encounters.  However, 2015’s matchup could be a different story with the Perth franchise showing some okay form in their win against defending champions, the Waratahs.  That was balanced out with a subdued loss against the Reds.  The Hurricanes, who enter as slight favourites, had an immeasurably good run in South Africa winning both their road matches.  They haven’t found an attacking spark yet but should still be too strong for the Force.  Therefore, we’re predicting 2015 is not the year the Force get another win against the Canes.  Canes by 13+.

Cheetahs v Blues

Cheetahs – $1.65

Blues – $2.26

The Blues will be filthy the Cricket World Cup is taking away their beloved Eden Park fortress, and while New Zealand and Australia destroy the turf with a drop in pitch, the Blues will travel to Bloemfontein to try and get their 2015 campaign up and running. 0 from 2 is a poor return for a side packed with All Blacks and led by the mercurial Jerome Kaino.  They’ve moved Charles Piutau to centre, while the well-rested Cheetahs welcome back Springbok wing Cornal Hendricks.  The Cheetahs have never won their first two games of a Super Rugby season, but if they were ever going to do it this is the year.  We’re picking them to be as impressive as they were in Round 1 with a 6 point win.

Chiefs v Crusaders

Chiefs – $1.60

Crusaders – $2.36

The perennial clash of the New Zealand conference titans is at its sumptuous best this year.  A powerful Chiefs backline vs a dogged Crusaders forward pack makes for a gripping contest of contrasting styles.  The Chiefs have SBW and the form winger in the competition in James Lowe, whereas the Crusaders will rely on Richie McCaw and the improving Scott Barrett.  Dan Carter’s injury is offset by Colin Slade’s impressive form so we find this incredibly difficult to pick.  At the flip of a coin, we’ll go with the Chiefs by 5.

Rebels v Brumbies

Rebels – $3.00

Brumbies – $1.40

We’ll say it now – the Brumbies will win the comp this year.  Stephen Larkham will celebrate his elevation to the National coaching set-up with another backroom scripted win.  To do so, they’ll need to overturn a horrible run of just one win from their last four matches against the Rebels, and hope the Rebels can’t rediscover their Crusaders beating form.  Stephen Moore returns to captain the Brumbies, and Nic Stirzaker is coming back from suspension, in the two major additions to each side.  Brumbies to win by 8.

Bulls v Sharks

Bulls – $1.83

Sharks – $2.00

The bookmakers have predictably called this one to be especially close.  The traditionally strong Bulls up against the always there or there about Sharks, should in most years be the match that settles the South African conference.  But this year is different.  The Sharks have won one, the Bulls none, in surprising early season form.  The Bulls in particular have uncharacteristically dropped games at home, but get the chance to atone in Super Rugby Round 3.  The most exciting inclusion this week, is Ryan Kankowski the man mountain, who reruns from a Japanese rugby stint for the Sharks.  In a tricky decision, we will tip the Sharks by 6.

Lions v Stormers

Lions – $2.50

Stormers – $1.54

Another Super Rugby Round 3 all South African affair sees the unbeaten and table topping Stormers face off against the Lions in Johannesburg.  The Stormers have gone with a similar side to last week and are hoping to continue their unbeaten run, which has been matched by only the Chiefs and Hurricanes.  The Lions are yet to going this year, they have the worst record in the competition.  Accordingly, they’ve sprung a major surprise and dropped Marnitz Boshoff and given a start to Elton Jantjies.  We don’t think the tactical move will help them get up against the Stormers, we’ll back them by 10.

This Week’s Multi

A head to head multi on our picks pays $25.32

A margin multi pays $1597.84

Super Rugby: Round 2 Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Round 2 of Super Rugby carried on the theme of unpredictable results from Round 1.  While we’re getting a little closer to being able to predict who the major players in this season’s comp will be, there’s still a few exceptions (the Hurricanes for one) causing a bit of confusion and trouble at the bookmakers.

Here’s the wrap up of all the Super Rugby Round 2 action:

Chiefs (19) v Brumbies (17)

This match between the Chiefs and the Brumbies was always to be a close one.  On this evidence, it could be that these two will end up competing for the Super Rugby title in July.  They look two of the more accomplished sides in 2015, and neither gave an inch in this brutal New Plymouth encounter.  The boot’s of Cruden and Lealiifano were the major contributors to the action and the scoreboard, as both sides traded penalties to see-saw the scoreboard.  With their noses in front through much of it, the Brumbies committed a final play indiscretion to hand Cruden an opportunity to kick for the win which he duly grabbed.

Chiefs: Tries – C. Ngatai, Pen – Aaron Cruden (4), Con – Aaron Cruden

Brumbies: Tries – I. Vaea, Pen – C. Lealiifano (3), N White

Rebels (28) v Waratahs (38)

The Waratahs were very disappointed with their effort in Round 1, so it was no surprise they bounced back with a victory against the Rebels.  With a point to prove, the Waratahs, led by a brilliant Kurtley Beale performance, ran in four tries to secure a bonus point win and help the memories from week one disappear. Beale scored one try and set up another fro Stephen Holies in a performance that finally got him some publicity for the right reasons – not the sexist text incidents he’s been more famous for recently.

The Rebels showed enough to be dangerous for the rest of the tournament.  They backed up their win against the Crusaders with one bonus point after just missing the losing bonus point due to a late penalty.

Rebels: Tries – S.Higginbotham, L.Timani, L.Burgess, S.Naivalu, Con – M.Harris (4)

Waratahs: Tries – S.Hoiles, Ta. Naiyaravoro, K.Beale, Pen – B.Foley, K.Beale (3), Con – B.Foley (3)

Bulls (13) v Hurricanes (17)

The Hurricanes South African leg clean sweep (their first since 2006) was about as expected as an Afghanistan win in the Cricket World Cup.  Nevertheless, it was achieved with a gritty defensive display at the imperiously difficult Johannesburg home ground of the Bulls.

The Bulls again struggled to convert pressure into points, and for the second match in a row were left to rue general indiscipline, and inaccuracy on attack.  With the exception of wonderkid Handre Pollard, the Bulls look susceptible this year, and are one of only four teams yet to record a win.

The Hurricanes may be this years unexpected package.  In truth they needed a late Savea try and the boot of Beuden Barrett to get them home here, but the talented backline will only get better in weeks to come with more rugby under the belt.

Bulls: Tries- H. Pollard, Pen- H. Pollard, Con- H. Pollard

Hurricanes: Tries- J Savea, Pen- B. Barrett (4)

Highlanders (20) v Crusaders (26)

The Highlanders and the Crusaders never combine for dull encounters.  This was no exception.  The Crusaders, dominant for most of the match, had to withstand a late Highlanders fightback to take their first points of the 2015 Super Rugby season.  Colin Slade grabbed his opportunity to steer the side without Dan Carter with aplomb.  He was excellent in general play and with the boot, and will force Todd Blackadder into a tough decision when Carter’s fit.

The Highlanders were brave in the second half after trailing by 20-7 at the break.  All Blacks Aaron Smith and Malakai Fekitoa scored tries to close the gap, but it was only enough for one bonus point as the Crusaders did what they couldn’t do the week before.

Crusaders on the board, the Highlanders with some work to do.

Highlanders: Tries – A. Smith, M. Fekitoa, Pen – L. Sopoaga (2), Con – L. Sopoaga (2)

Crusaders: Tries – S. Barrett, J. McNicholl, Pen – C. Slade (4), Con – C. Slade (2)

Reds (18) v Force (6)

Cyclone Marcia meant that many of us were unsure whether this match was going to happen or not. The game did go ahead, and despite the other type of snow (read cocaine) also bearing on the match, the Reds snuck a win against a pretty weak Force side.  The game plan from the Reds was simple; boring, but it proved to be too effective for the more fancied Force.  Territorial kicking and tackling your heart out is a commendable strategy for a team under such enormous off-field pressure, and its testament to the character of the players that they pulled it off.

The Force managed just two first half penalties to the boot off Sias Ebersohn, and couldn’t penetrate the energetic defence of the Queensland side.

Reds: Tries – L.Turner, Penalty Try, Pen – L.Turner (2) , Con – L.Turner

Force: Pen – S.Ebersohn (2)

Stormers (27) v Blues (16)

The Stormers went to the top of the Super Rugby ladder with their second win of the year.  This one was pretty much over in the 24th minute when the Blues were reduced to 14 players as Hayden Triggs was red carded for an idiotic punch.  Granted the recipient was the annoying Duane Vermeulen, but the act itself was thuggish and he deserved to go.  With just 14 men the Blues couldn’t compete, and the Stormers ran out winners by 27 points to 16.

Ihaia West was one of the few bright sparks for the Blues.  We were critical of him last week, but on this matches’ evidence he is the right man to guide the Blues this season.  The Blues just need to discover a way to win away from Eden Park, something we’re not sure they can do.

The Stormers may not have enough to their game to stay at the top of the table all season.  They managed only two tries despite playing the bulk of the match with a one man advantage, and didn’t do enough to suggest they’ll be able to beat team when they travel to Australasia.

Stromers: Tries – N.Groom, D.Leyds, Pen – D. Catrakilis (4), K.Coleman, Con – D. Catrakilis

Blues: Tries – J.Cowan, Pen – I.West (3), Con – I.West

Sharks (29) v Lions (12)

The Sharks bounced back from a horror opening round loss to record a bonus point win at home to the travelling Lions. The match, played in driving rain, saw the Lions dominate the early possession but fail to turn any of it into meaningful points.  That proved to be crucial, as the Sharks eventually overturned the wave of possession and score four tries to none to get their campaign back on track. Patrick Lambie was the star of the show for the Sharks, kicking for 14 points and guiding his team around nicely in the difficult conditions.  The Sharks go to 5th on the Super Rugby standings while the Lions are firmly rooted to the bottom.

Sharks: Tries – A.Ndungane, C. Reinach, M.Coetzee, Pen – P.Lambie (4) , Con – P.Lambie

Lions: Pen – M.Boshoff

 

Super Rugby Round 1 Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Who would have thought the bookies could have got it so wrong?  Who could have imagined the home sides struggling so much in the opening round?

No one really.  Hence round 1 of Super Rugby surprised many with a number of interesting results.  Check out the review of each game below:

Crusaders v Rebels

The Crusaders continued their sloppy starts in Super Rugby to fall to the Rebels at home in a dull game littered with errors and disciplinary indiscretions.  When the number of yellow cards is the same as the number of tries you know you’re in for difficult viewing and that’s exactly what Friday nights opener was.  Especially for Crusaders fans who were left frustrated by a disjointed effort and another injury to the Daniel Carter.

The Rebels already look a better team this year.  Some strong off season recruitment and an unbeaten pre-season has instilled a belief that could see the Rebels win more overseas games in 2015.

Brumbies v Reds

If the Crusaders were bad, then the Reds were abysmal.  Taking nothing away from the dominant Brumbies outfit who were clinical in all facets, it has to be said that the Reds were the most disappointing of all sides on show this week.  They can’t possibly make the Top 6 on this evidence.  Karmichael Hunt was outdone by Matt Toomua, and David Pocock, Scott Sio and Robbie Coleman were immense in the massacre.

Stephen Larkham’s men are incredibly well coached.  Their set piece was incredibly organised, and their backline penetrative in a strong indication they’ll go a long way this year.

Lions v Hurricanes

Chris Boyd got his coaching tenure underway by overseeing a Hurricanes victory over the Lions at the daunting Ellis Park (Johannesburg).  This was another in the “not overly entertaining” category as the Lions failed to turn big possession into points and were eventually outdone by tries to TJ Perenara and Matt Proctor.

One of the finds of the competition last year, Marnitz Boshoff, was uncharacteristically wayward with the boot, which impacted his side’s ability to win the territory battle.  For the Hurricanes their back row took the pundits over the much fancied backline.

Blues v Chiefs 

In one of only a few matches we correctly predicted the Chiefs got by the Blues at Eden Park by 23-18.  Sonny Bill Williams picked up Rugby where he left off two seasons ago and had a hand in both of the Chiefs’  tries.  Debutant Damien MacKenzie got the better of Ihaia West in the battle of the young number 10’s, and James Lowe was terrific on the wing for the men from Hamilton.  West’s boot was the only source of points for the Blues, who in truth didn’t have that many opportunities in attack and when they did West kicked it away.  The Blues face an interesting next week on whether to go with West again or whether to entrust the retuning Dan Bowden to provide the spark at first five-eighth.

Sharks v Cheetahs

This was by far and away the best game of the round.  Both teams played with energy and enterprise and only a Marcell Coetzee error settled the match in the Cheetahs favour.  The Cheetahs bonus point win on the road is a major coup for the prior year also-rans.  This should have been a difficult game for the Cheetahs away from home, but they remained undaunted by the heavily fancied Sharks and produced an upset that highlights their credentials for the season ahead.

Bulls v Stormers

We actually thought both these teams might do alright this Super Rugby season and if Saturday’s opener is anything to go by they are both right on track.  Beating the Bulls in Pretoria is no mean feat, so fair play to the Stormers who got by relatively comfortably in the end, winning 29-17.  The Bulls were unbeaten at home last year, and will need to get back on track quickly if they are to feature in the qualifying rounds of the tournament.  Handre Pollard will ensure that though, now that he doesn’t have to face Duane Vermeulen again for a bit.

Waratahs v Force

In what was probably the single biggest shock of the round, the defending champion NSW side lost at home to the Western Force.  In a performance that mirrored the Crusaders limp effort, the Waratahs never got going and failed to shake off the early season rust in any aspect of their play.  It’s certainly no cause for panic, as early season woes have been seen across the board in round 1, but the lack of enthusiasm on display from some of the top teams is an unusual trend.  Here’s hoping the Tahs can shake of the early season woes, and the Force can continue their hard tackling and committed efforts throughout the season.

Super Rugby Round 1 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Rugby returns this weekend with most of the teams in action.  Check out preview of all the matches below, with odds from Tom Waterhouse.

Crusaders v Rebels, Christchurch, Friday 5.35pm

Crusaders – $1.15

Rebels – $5.75

This is a tough one to predict first up.  The Rebels have never won outside of Australia, but they do have a relatively strong record against the Crusaders, who for all of their success in Super Rugby competitions are slow starters.  Nonetheless, we’re going with a Crusaders win here, mainly because of the excitement in Christchurch at the moment with the opening of the Cricket World Cup bringing loads of positivity and a big crowd.

Brumbies v Reds, Canberra, Friday 7.40pm

Brumbies – $1.33

Reds – $3.40

None of the opposition teams in Week 1 are favourites with the bookmakers.  This is no exception.  The Reds are without Quade Cooper, James O’Connor and former All Black Adam Thomson, and instead will rely on Karmichael Hunt to guide them around the paddock.  That’s probably too much to ask in your first rugby game of any significance.  Therefore, we’re going with the Brumbies by a narrow margin.  Keep an eye out for David Pocock who makes a return after a long injury lay off.

Lions v Hurricanes, Johhanesburg, Saturday 4.10am

Lions – $2.10

Hurricanes – $1.75

The Hurricanes leak more points than the District 5 did before Charlie Conway joined.  Expect no different when they take on the Lions in Johannesburg early Saturday morning.  But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll lose.  If the star-studded backbone can make up for the weak forward pack the amount of points they concede might not matter.  In TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett and Cory Jane the Hurricanes have enough class to get home in this one.

Blues v Chiefs, Auckland, Saturday 5.35pm

Blues – $2.00

Chiefs – $1.80

Surprisingly, the Blues only lost one home game last year, to the Chiefs mind you, however, that was with a full complement of All Black stars who are sitting this one out.  The Blues are less affected by dubious rest policy, but we’re still thinking the Chiefs might get up and take this match out.  They have belief, they have the titles under their belt, and they have Sonny Bill Williams.

Sharks v Cheetahs, Durban, Sunday 2.10am

Sharks – $1.20

Cheetahs – $4.50

The Sharks will win easily.  They are comfortably the frontrunners of the South African Conference, and even early season rust won’t stop them from overrunning the notoriously weak Bloemfontein outfit. Unfortunately, we wouldn’t recommend considering the Cheetahs on too many occasions this year in your weekly tips or office sweepstake.

Bulls v Stormers, Pretoria, Sunday 4.10am

Bulls – $1.35

Stormers – $3.25

This might just be the closest of the opening round games.  The Bulls boast seven Springboks in their forward pack and the IRB Junior Player of the year in Handre Pollard so it’s a brave man who bets against them at Loftus.  We’ll back the Bulls by 7, only to be consistent with our majority home team picks.

Waratahs v Force, Sydney, Sunday 4.05pm

Waratahs – $1.16

Force – $5.35

The Super Rugby defending champions are heavily backed favourites for week 1.  The Force look weak on paper this year, and although we back them to win some games in Perth, the Tahs will be too comfortable at home.  Expect Izzy Folau to carve up the dry afternoon turf and set the early pace for try-scorers too.