The countdown is on to Super Bowl LI and the bookmakers have made the New England Patriots clear favourites to beat the Atlanta Falcons. But this should prove to be a ferocious battle between the league’s best offence and its best defence and it really could go either way. It promises to be a great game, and we have compiled some essential information to arm yourself with before placing your wager:
Form
Without a doubt, New England has been the best team in the league this season. They were without Tom Brady for the first four games due to suspension but still went on to finish 14-2 in the regular season. New England simply breezed the playoffs, winning by 18 points in the Divisional Round and 19 points in the Conference Championship. Atlanta won their final four games of the regular season to finish 11-5 and qualify as second seeds to the playoffs. They also annihilated the competition, winning by 16 points and then 23 points despite facing two very tricky opponents.
Strengths
The Falcons have had by far and away the best offence in the league this season. In fact, their regular season offensive record is the eighth best in the history of the NFL, with 33.8 points per game. In the playoffs they kept it going, beating the Seahawks 36-20 and the Packers 44-21. New England has the league’s best defence by a considerable distance. They gave up just 15.6 points per game in the regular season, so it really is a case of unstoppable force meets immovable object.
Weaknesses
Atlanta’s defence has not been great this season. It caused them to lose five games in the regular season, and even when they were winning they were conceding a lot of points and scraping victories thanks to the strength of their offence. But their defensive form improved considerably in the playoffs and they kept two excellent offences relatively quiet. For the Patriots, there are no real weaknesses. Their defence is superb, but so is their offence. The only worry for Pats fans might be the absence of Rob Gronkowski, the record-breaking tight end who misses the game through injury.
Star Players
Leading the charge for New England is Brady, widely accepted as the best quarterback of all time. He has the experience, having led his team to seven Super Bowls, winning three of them, and he has the skill to take this questionable Falcons defence apart. Defensively, Malcolm Butler and Ron Ninkovich will make life extremely difficult for the Falcons. Atlanta’s star is undoubtedly Matt Ryan. He led the Falcons to 580 regular season points, putting them 71 clear of the second best team offensively, the Saints, and he did it with exceptional consistency and stats that lead all QBs in the league this season. But he has a lot of help from Julio Jones, who is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL and a key part of this offence.
Key clashes
The obvious clash is between the league’s two outstanding QBs. Ryan leads Brady in passing yards, passing touchdowns and pass completion this season, but Brady has that vital experience and has a higher all-time passer rating. The clash that determines it could be Butler v Jones. Butler has shut down many of the league’s best wide receivers this season and if he does a similar job on Jones the Super Bowl is New England’s. This is old hat for Pats coach Bill Belichick, coaching his seventh Super Bowl, and he has great tactical nous, but Falcons coach Dan Quinn will come at him, and that is the best way to take on New England, so it should prove a tremendous tactical battle.
History
What can the history books tell us about who might win this game? While Atlanta is the league’s hottest team right now, the Pats are historically the best team in the business. Belichick and Brady can be trusted in the big games, while there are more question marks over Ryan and Quinn. In four previous games, Brady has never lost to the Falcons, so he goes in with the perfect record. The Pats should win but expect a tight game. The favourite failed to cover the spread in five of Brady-Belichick’s six previous Super Bowls, and if you are looking at spread betting history is with Atlanta (who are -3), as the underdog has covered the spread in 13 of the past 16 Super Bowls.
