Tag: tennis odds

Roger And Rafa Return To Game’s Greatest Stage

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Serena Williams is the 2017 Australian Open women’s champion after defeating older sister Venus in last night’s final at Melbourne Park. Tonight, it’s another battle of veteran rivals as Roger Federer resumes his Grand Slam rivalry with Spanish great Rafael Nadal.

Men’s Final: #17 Roger Federer (Switzerland) v #9 Rafael Nadal (Spain)

It seemed unthinkable at the start of the Australian Open that the last two men standing would be a pair of thirty-somethings who dominated the Grand Slam scene in the previous decade. With Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray dispatched in the earlier rounds, great rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal grabbed the opportunity to face-off in their first major final since 2009. On that night, Nadal prevailed and finished the night consoling an emotional Federer in scenes that cemented the legacy of their historic battles. But it’s not as if the pair completely disappeared from the rankings. Rafa was ranked no. 1 as recently as 2014, while Roger finished 2015 at no. 2 and reached the finals of Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. They arrived in Melbourne this year as the no. 9 (Nadal) and no. 17 (Federer) seeds after injury-interrupted 2016 campaigns.

A rich history of rivalry

From the French Open in 2005 to the US Open in 2010, Federer and Nadal shared a staggering 21 Slam titles between them of the 23 available to win (Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro were the only other winners in that period). But in an era where Federer was the sport’s Superman, Nadal was his Kryptonite. The Spaniard owns a strong 23-11 edge in their matches, including going 6-2 against Federer in their eight Grand Slam finals matches. The last time the pair met in a Grand Slam final was at the 2011 French Open, where Nadal won his sixth title. Federer holds the record for the most men’s Grand Slam singles titles with 17, while a win tonight would be Nadal’s 15th, and would break a tie with Pete Sampras for second all-time. Should Nadal win the title here, he will become the first man in the Open Era to win every Grand Slam title twice or more. Federer did win their last match, on indoor hard courts in Basel in 2015, but their dynamic has always favoured Rafa.

Proven performers over five sets

Federer defeated top-10 players Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka on his way to the final, with the latter two going the distance. Two of Nadal’s matches both went to five sets – his third-round battle with young gun Alexander Zverev before requiring almost five hours to dispatch Grigor Dimitrov in the semis. The Spaniard enjoyed two particularly impressive wins against top-10 players Gael Monfils and Milos Raonic where he gave neither a sniff. It’s worth noting that Federer has enjoyed an extra 24 hours of rest since KO-ing Wawrinka but it could be argued that, with a five-year age gap between the Swiss and Nadal, he needs it. An analysis of their Grand Slam head-to-head matches away from clay reveals that this duo has played six best-of-five set matches on hard courts or grass, and four have gone the distance, one decided in four sets, and just one in straight sets. We’ll be taking Nadal straight up ($1.80 with William Hill) and the +41 game-total ($1.85 with Crownbet).

Veterans Turning Back The Clock at 2017 Australian Open

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The quarter-final line-ups in the Australian Open men’s and women’s draws have been decided, and they look nothing like the expectations that most pundits held a little over a week ago. On the men’s side, unseeded German Mischa Zverev faces the giant task of defeating Swiss great Roger Federer (17) to reach the semis while another former Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka (4) takes on Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12). In the bottom half of the draw, Rafael Nadal (9) will meet the highest seed remaining in the tournament, Canada’s Milos Raonic (3) with the remaining semi-final berth going to the winner of the David Goffin (11) v Grigor Dimitrov (15) match-up.

In the women’s tournament, a Williams v Williams final is still in play but it’s Serena who faces a tougher path through the next two rounds. She plays in-form Brit Johanna Konta (9) in the quarters with Karolina Pliskova (5) taking on Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in the other quarter. In the top half, it’s CoCo Vandeweghe v Garbine Muguruza (7) while Venus Williams must defeat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to reach the last four.

Swiss on a roll

Four of the eight quarter-finals will be played today, with Wawrinka v Tsonga the last game of the day session on Rod Laver Arena with Zverev v Federer first-up for the night session. There’s not much to take from the head-to-head history between Wawrinka and Tsonga as five of their seven match-ups have been on clay. Their only clash on a hard court was a decade ago! Statistically, Tsonga has slightly better numbers on hard courts – he holds serve 91 percent of the time compared to Wawrinka’s 85 per cent while their ability to break opponents is almost identical. A four-set contest is a reasonable expectation at $2.35 (thanks to bet365).

Federer is not surprisingly priced at $1.13 to defeat Zverev, although the quote would have been way shorter only days ago. Their previous two meetings are inconsequential (Halle on grass in 2013, Rome on clay in 2009) with Federer winning both. Zverev stunned Murray with his serve and volley game but the Swiss master will be wary should he attempt this strategy again. Credit to the German for his run here after a long run of injuries but Roger gets this done comfortably (3-0 at $1.67 with William Hill).

Venus rising

Venus Williams is first up on Rod Laver Arena today against the Russian 24th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, with the CoCo Vandeweghe-Garbine Muguruza quarter-final to follow immediately after. As Federer, Nadal and Lucic-Baroni have shown, age doesn’t seem to be a barrier at this year’s Open and the 36-year-old Williams is yet to drop a set against Kateryna Kozlova, Stefanie Voegele, Duan Ying-Ying and Mona Barthel. Pavlyuchenkova is an improved player compared to 12 months ago, but her return statistics are considerably inferior to those of Williams. We’re staggered to find Williams rated the underdog here, and will be taking a fair slice of the $2.00 available at Sportsbet. Vandeweghe ($2.60) will be on a high after her straight-sets upset of world No.1 and defending champion Angelique Kerber. Meanwhile, seventh seed Garbine Muguruza ($1.50) has progressed to her first Australian Open quarter-final without the loss of a set. They’ve played three times, Vandeweghe winning twice. The market looks about right for this one with a slight lean to the American at the game-total line (+3.5 at $1.80 with Crownbet).

Another Day, Another Farce For Controversial Aussie Young Gun Kyrgios

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The 7.30pm timeslot on Australia’s Seven Network is normally home to one of the nation’s most loved soap operas, Home And Away. So it was only appropriate that last night’s Australian Open second round clash between Nick Kyrgios and Andreas Seppi was played at the same time on the free-to-air TV partner of the tournament. In a spectacular collapse, Kyrgios blew a two-set advantage to fall 1-6 6-7 (1-7) 6-4 6-1 10-8 to Italian Andreas Seppi. It featured the full gamut of drama that Aussie tennis fans have come to know, and mostly detest, about the 21-year-old.

Kyrgios, who carried a knee injury into the season’s first grand slam, appeared unhappy about apparently having to put in extra work on his day off on Tuesday and continued a verbal battle with his courtside box throughout the night. Kyrgios was then docked a penalty point after receiving a second code violation for angrily smashing his racquet into the court. Fellow former world No.1 Jim Courier described Kyrgios’s antics as “apathetic” while John McEnroe called Kyrgios’ apparent lack of effort mid-match as “black eye for the sport”.

Short shift looms for Djokovic

In the men’s draw, no. 2 seed Novak Djokovic continues his title defence against Denis Istomin, 2009 Australian Open winner Rafael Nadal faces beaten finalist Marcos Baghdatis and third seed Milos Raonic meets Gilles Muller on Margaret Court Arena. Emerging local Jordan Thompson will take on eighth-seeded Austrian Dominic Thiem. Djokovic is 5-0 against Istomin, taking 12 of the 13 sets they have contested – this one won’t last 27.5 games ($1.91 with Ladbrokes). Likewise, Grigor Dimitrov figures to have an easy time against South Korea’s Hyeon Chung, an emerging player on the verge of breaking into the top 100 thanks to some strong performances on the Challenger Tour. The Bulgarian will complete the job inside three sets ($1.80 on Luxbet). We can’t wait for the clash against big-serving duo Gilles Muller (Luxembourg) and Milos Raonic (Canada). Muller has been making quick work of opponents with his serve on-song and claim several big-name scalps on the road to the title in Sydney. Raonic is more accomplished from the back of the court but Muller has a superior game at the net. 41.5 games ($1.83 on Sportsbet) looks a given.

Konta can’t go wrong

Australian-born Brit Johanna Konta will be hoping to continue her red-hot run of form when she takes on Japan’s Naomi Osaka in the opening match on Rod Laver Arena on Thursday. Seeded ninth at the Australian Open, Konta defeated Canadian star Eugenie Bouchard and World no. 3 Agnieszka Radwanska on her way to the Sydney International title in an impressive preparation for the season-opening grand slam. With Osaka carrying a wrist injury, Konta wins this in a canter (-5.5 games at $1.91 on Crownbet). In other women’s draw highlights on day four, no. 2 seed Serena Williams faces Lucie Safarova, fifth seed Karolina Pliskova takes on Ana Blinkova and no. 6 seed Dominika Cibulkova clashes with Su-Wei Hsieh of Taiwan. Blinkova is a player to watch – just 18, she’s a talented player who is regularly reaching the latter stages of the few events she’s contested. Pliskova has only covered a line of his magnitude seven times in 20 matches so the Russian looks nice value over her Czech opponent here (+6.5 games is priced at $1.83 with Unibet).

Big Data A Big Hit With Australian Open Followers

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The amount of statistical information that should be released to fans (and, by extension, punters) is vigorously debated in the boardrooms of the major sports. Tennis had lagged behind many of those who’d embraced the concept of empowering their followers with a taste of ‘big data’.

However, the trickle of information from past Australian Opens has turned into a drought-breaking flood thanks to Tennis Australia’s creation of the Game Insight Group (GIG). Among GIG’s findings, based on data collected from the seven primary courts at the past three Australian Opens, Andy Murray had the highest work rate per shot in the men’s game and Gilles Simon the highest work rate per point.

But the stat that shone above all others was that young American star Madison Keys’ average forehand speed ranked first among the women, and ahead of all men except Tomas Berdych. Keys’ average backhand speed was also higher than any of the men. The collection and availability of such data is a huge step in the right direction for the game.
Big guns loaded for second round

The top seeds Angelique Kerber and Andy Murray, as well as Australia’s leading men, return to play on day three of the Australian Open in Melbourne. Bernard Tomic and Nick Kyrgios will close play with late second-round matches on Margaret Court Arena and Hisense Arena respectively. Tomic looks too strong for clay courter Victor Estrella Burgos, likewise Kyrgios in his match-up with Italian Andreas Seppi (a straight-sets win for Kyrgios is worth taking at $1.80 on William Hill).

Stan Wawrinka looked dead and buried down a break in the fifth set before prevailing over Martin Klizan and could face a similar grind against Steve Johnson today (take the +37.5-game total at $1.83 on Sportsbet). For our best of the day, American Ryan Harrison represents terrific value in his second-round showdown against Tomas Berdych. Berdych’s hold/break statistics have slumped dramatically over the past 12 months – today he faces a player who held serve more than 80 per cent in 2016. Harrison can keep this well inside the +5.5 game-line on offer ($1.83 with Luxbet).

Genie’s out of the bottle

The tour’s most experienced woman, Venus Williams, has been given the honour of opening play on centre court today. Williams, playing in her 73rd grand slam (an all-time record) will take on Swiss world no.112 Stefanie Voegele at Rod Laver Arena. This could turn into a real grind – Voegele has now played four successive three-set matches dating back to the qualifiers, winning all of them (take three sets at $2.75 on Ladbrokes). World no.1 Angelique Kerber’s meeting with Carina Witthoeft follows that match. Garbine Muguruza plays US hope Samantha Crawford in the night session on Melbourne Park’s main stadium court. It’s been a low-key start to the Australian Open for glamour girl Eugenie Bouchard. She made an ominous start to her tournament on Monday night with a crushing win over Louisa Chirico. Her opponent today, veteran Shuai Peng, has played little tennis on the main tour over the past two years. The Canadian should get this done fairly comfortably (a straight sets win is $2.10 with Crownbet).

Hot Afternoon Looms At Searing Melbourne Park On Day Two

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Players face reasonably comfortable conditions from Wednesday through to the weekend but those scheduled to hit the courts on Tuesday will be reminded why the Australian Open can be a sometimes-brutal test of endurance. The forecast temperature is 38°C although cloud cover may ease the impact of this extreme heat. In good news for those scheduled to play in the night session, a cool change is expected early in the evening which will drop the temperature back to the low 20s. That’s when fans will watch no. 2 seed Novak Djokovic take on Spain’s Fernando Verdasco and women’s no. 3 seed Agnieszka Radwanska face Tsvetana Pironkova of Bulgaria. But for the likes of Serena Williams (2), Karolina Pliskova (5), Dominika Cibulkova (6), Milos Raonic (3) and Rafael Nadal (9), there’ll be little respite from the boiler room conditions.

In a Nic of time

The big story on day one was the swift demise of Spaniard Nicolas Almagro. With match-fixing firmly in the spotlight at this year’s Open, Almagro was forced to deflect claims of a money-grab after he lasted just 23 minutes before retiring. Almagro threw in the towel with a calf injury at 4-0 down in the first set against France’s Jeremy Chardy but walked away with an AUD $50,000 cheque as a first-round loser. Australian doubles legend Todd Woodbridge, a TV commentator, ignited a debate when he said: “Questions to be asked. Did (Almagro) just turn up to take money?” Almagro later insisted: “I went to court because I think I can play. I was top 10, I have more than 10 million dollars. I’m not going to play for $50,000. It is not the reason.”

Boys to men

On the men’s side, the big guns all prevailed yesterday but, for our best of the day, we like the look of a former Australian Open boys’ champion. Alexander Zverev is on the cusp of the top 20 and looks to improve his ranking with a win over veteran Dutchman Robin Haase. The 19-year-old German should get this done in three sets, priced at $1.70 with Ladbrokes. Two more players entering the latter stages of their career are also in action today. Marcos Baghdatis is a favourite with the Melbourne Park fans but looks unders as he continues to recover from an ankle injury. It’s been almost a decade since the 34-year-old Russian reached the quarterfinals in this event but looks good value ($2.60 with William Hill) to cause the upset here.

Early tram for Sam

For one reason or another, Aussie Sam Stosur has a horrible record on home soil. She has won just 21 of her past 50 matches in Australia and has cost punters a packet with a 24-22 career record as favourite in front of home fans. The books have made Stosur a $1.80 favourite but we’ll be taking the Brit Heather Watson, who showed some decent touch in the Hopman Cup ($2.00 with Paddy Power). Likewise, Lucie Safarova’s career is in decline through a combination of injury and illness. The Czech player has managed just four wins from 15 matches on hard courts in the past 12 months. We’ll be taking her Belgian opponent Yanina Wickmayer at the +3.5-game handicap, available at $1.83 on Luxbet.

2016 US Open Betting Field Narrows at Flushing Meadows

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The 2016 US Open is well into its second week and many of the main contenders are still left standing. This represents the final Grand Slam event of the tennis calendar and Flushing Meadows is still considered one of the stellar venues in professional tennis. Some of the greatest names in the sport have been victorious there and in the men’s’ event, this was the venue that saw Andy Murray break through into the elite of the men’s game in 2012 when he secured his first slam.

Murray can now be considered a great player with three slams in total including two Wimbledon titles, two Olympic Gold medals, a Davis Cup victory and numerous other ranking titles. However, it is the threat from Novak Djokovic that poses the biggest obstacle to Murray landing a fourth slam. Murray first has to navigate his next hurdle though against Kei Nishikori, but SunBets don’t think that will be much of a problem quoting Murray at a very short 1/7.

Can Djokovic be Stopped?

Many people consider Djokovic at his best to be on a par with Federer at his peak, and given his phenomenal athletic ability, it is difficult to argue. Djokovic is rightly so the favourite and is a best priced 19/20 on Betfair in the overall winner market. With no less than 12 slams already in the bag and looking good to soon surpass players like Emerson, Nadal and Sampras to become the second highest slam winner in men’s Tennis, the question is will the 2016 US Open be slam number thirteen?

However, this tournament isn’t just about Djokovic and Murray, and there are a few who could spring a surprise in the men’s tournament should the two favourites fail to deliver. One such player is Stan Wawrinka, but that kind of depends on which Wawrinka turns up.

Wawrinka is twice a semi-finalist in New York and has two slams to his name after winning the Australian Open in 2014 and the French Open the following year. He faces Juan Martin Del Potro though, a very stiff test for him with Del Potro a firm favourite on this surface after winning here in 2009. In fact Del Potro can be backed at 8/13 with SunBets with Wawrinka at 5/4.

Overall though, the betting market doesn’t seem to see beyond Djokovic and Murray, and it’s hard to argue with that.

In the women’s event all eyes will be on Serena Williams to see if she can finish off yet another remarkable year. In what could be her final US Open she is well in contention and is 4/5 with Betfair. After winning three consecutive titles from 2012-2014 and six titles here in total, it’s hard to back against what could be the greatest female tennis player of all time.

Who Could Upset the Odds?

It was Flavia Pennetta who upset the odds last year in what was an all-Italian ladies final, and so Williams isn’t a cert here by any means. Williams faces Simona Halep next on Thursday September 8, and it is difficult to see anything other than a Williams victory. Halep has yet to win a slam, but did reach the French Open final in 2014 and the US Open semi-final in 2015. She is well respected on the ladies circuit and the price of 33/10 with Sporting Bet and 13/4 with 888 Sport may attract a few punters who may believe that Williams’ best days are behind her.

Second favourite Angelique Kerber may attract a few punters with many firms going 3/1 on her chances of landing her second slam following her win at the Australian Open in January this year. Kerber has never gone past the semi-finals here in New York and Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports and Betfair have her at an attractive 3/1 to take the tournament come Saturday. One thing is for sure though, as long as Serena Williams has a tennis racquet in her hand, she will still be the one to beat.