Just eight teams remain in the NFL playoffs and they are a mere two games away from reaching the Super Bowl, so it’s all getting excruciatingly tense Stateside. First up is an intriguing showdown between the Seahawks and the Falcons, before Super Bowl favourites the Patriots start their postseason campaign against the Texans.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Seattle made short work of the Lions in the Wildcard Round, routing them 26-6 in front of their home fans, but they face a much sterner test now. The Falcons finished the regular season with four wins in a row to go 11-5 and steal second seed spot ahead of the Seahawks, who ended up 10-5-1 after losing two of their final four regular season games. That means Atlanta have home field advantage, which could prove crucial here. These two teams met earlier in the season and it was a nail-biter as the Seahawks ran out 26-24 winners in Seattle in October. It is a source of great contention for the Falcons due to a pass interference call the referee missed when they were on a fourth down play late in the fourth. You would think that win would give the Seahawks confidence, but it is worth bearing in mind two things: on that day they had home field advantage and they had Earl Thomas. In Divisional Round they will have neither.
Thomas was a beast for the Seahawks this season. The Seattle safety limited Tom Brady and Drew Brees to just one touchdown pass combined over two games. The Seahawks defence only gave up seven touchdown passes in the 11 games he was on the field (albeit three of them were against Atlanta in that 26-24 win). Since his injury, they have lost three of seven and have not looked at all as solid. They are 3-4-1 on the road compared to 8-1 at home and it is hard to imagine them travelling all the way to Atlanta and getting the win. The best odds you can get on Atlanta are at around the 4/9 mark with Sky Bet, so for more value, back Atlanta -3.5 at 3/4 with Bet365.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
The Pats have been devastating this season, qualifying for the playoffs with the best record in the league at 14-2. The Texans, less so. They limped into the playoffs as fourth seed on 9-7 with the same record as the Titans but qualified as they had a better record against comparative teams. They benefited from a lucky draw in the Wildcard round as they hosted an Oakland Raiders team deprived of their star quarterback and his understudy due to an injury crisis, and went through. They are the weakest team left in the playoffs and this is expected to be a complete mismatch.
The Pats are 7/4 favourites to win the Super Bowl, while the Texans are rank outsiders at 66/1. The bookmakers have completely given up on Houston: the Texans are a massive 10/1 to win this with Boylesports, while the Pats are as low as 1/20 but best priced at 1/12 with Bet Victor. There is no value there, but the point spread is the largest in 18 years of playoff games, as Vegas has made Houston 16-point underdogs. The teams met earlier in the season on Week 3, when New England won 27-0 with a third string quarterback. This time Brady will be in the team and the Texans will be crushed. New England have covered some massive spreads in recent weeks and they can get the job done here, so the evens Paddy Power is offering on the Patriots -15.5 looks a good bet.
