Tag: Tipster

We are treated to some lovely looking Group 1 races around Europe today, first up is the Prix Rothschild at Deauville, for 3yo+ Fillies. The second race i will focus on is the Grosser Dallmar-Preis at Munich.

Elusive Kate 2:40 Deauville 11/4 William Hill

Elusive Kate is a likeable sort who narrowly got the better of Sky Lantern last time out in a dramatic finish. Elusive Kate edged left across the entire course, taking Sky Lantern with her, after a lengthy stewards enquiry, Kate kept the race. This was appealed against by connections of Sky Lantern but eventually dismissed after a second enquiry. Elusive kate has run 4 times at Deauville and won a handicap, group 3, group 1 and came 3rd to Exelebration her last visit, only beaten a length and a quarter. She needs her first race of the season before getting off the mark, her first race this season was in the Queen Anne stakes against the boys, where she finished a creditable 4th beaten just over 3 lengths by Declaration Of War. She’s a tough, genuine sort who will put everything in to her race, guaranteed. I’d of loved for the price to be around the 4-5/1 mark as i’d of put this up as an each way bet to nothing, but at 11/4, we’re going to have to go on the nose with her.

Opposite 4:05 Munich 3-1 Ladbrokes

This powerful Dansili colt has been destroying handicap fields in France the past year and takes quite a step up to Group 1 level today. That being said, this german group 1 looks incredibly weak, with the only real threat coming from the current 2-1 favourite Hunters Light. I’m a big Hunters Light fan, he did me many favours in Meydan, but his return to Europe has seen two very poor efforts by his standards (finishing 7th and 6th respectably). If Hunters Light under-performs again, i believe Opposite is ready to pick up the pieces. That said, this is probably the easiest group 1 Hunters Light would of taken part in, so be aware of him. We saw yesterday with Cirrus Des Aigles what out of form horses can do against fields they should really be beating, and i hope the same story applies to Hunters Light today, under perform, let a young pretender take your place in Opposite.

Part of me died inside when i saw Sadiq hadn’t won. I fully expected it to build on what it had achieved thus far, but got pegged back late on, so annoying!

Bondi Beach Boy 17:25 Thirsk 4-1 Ladbrokes

Yet another Betcirca favourite racing today, although i think the last time i tipped it, it was when it came 3rd, when going for 4 in a row.. hoping for a bit of better luck with Bondi Beach Boy today. Last time out he finished 3 1/2 lengths ahead of Ingenti, who’s won since. Back in 3rd was Pull The Pin, who lost to Bondi Beach Boy twice (by an ever increasing margin each time) and then stepped up in grade to win a classs 5 race next time out. Figure that one out.

Swendab is becoming frustrating for supporters, 3 2nd places in a row, and every time he’s looked as if he’s coming to win his race. Oil Strike popped up after tumbling down the handicap to land a class 6 race last time, and is favourite today, but can he repeat that performance with a 10lbs rise? Not sure.

Azma 20:45 Newmarket 6-1 Bet365

Azma looked unlucky last time when being squeezed for room and hampered one furlong out. She’s won around here and has several placed efforts to her name over C&D. She carries top weight after landing a similar contest to this not long ago. She was then beaten in a class 3 handicap which featured the likes of Henry The Aviator and Basseterre. That form looks strong in the context of this race, and 6-1 is a massive price, especially given the each-way value on offer, i’d be amazed if she didn’t place at the very least. An each-way bet to nothing as they’d say.

My word, how disappointing was Pearl Spectre? Let down nearly every double/treble i had placed throughout the day. Things may click with him eventually, but for now he’s one to steer clear off, unless he’s dropped in grade(although he’d be pretty damn short if he did).

Sadiq 15:40 Sandown 6/4 Bet365

I tipped this up last time it ran as the Godolphin stable are on fire at the moment, now i’ll be putting it up again! the manner in which he won last time (he beat a 4/7 heavily backed favourite 11 lengths with ease) suggests a 6lb penalty might not be enough to stop him. My only real reservation is the fact he’s gone from winning twice at Brighton (down hill and a left hand turn) to a stiff uphill finish at Sandown, not to mention the 4 furlong home straight. Another thing Sadiq has in his favour is the weight for age allowance over several of todays runners.

Ducab is interesting, and rates as the only real danger. Roger Varian’s colt got his head infront last time out beating the incredily frustrating maiden from the Gosden yard, Khudoua, will he ever win? Eitherway, with a win under his belt he poses a threat, even if he did beat a horse that does everything possible to not win his races.

Devon Diva 17:00 Bath 4/1 Betfred

This makes the shortlist today for two reasons, he won last time out and the yard really fancy him. He was 5-1 last night, and is 4-1 as of 10:00am this morning, he’ll shorten all the time. He caught the eye with a 50-1 2nd place over C&D last month and followed it up with a harrow neck victory over C&D the last time. 3lbs is the penalty, which is wiped out by Michael J Murphys 5lb claim. This race has some so-so types in it and a reproduction of its last two runs will see it come close. Solid EW chance.

Consign 20:05 Sandown 5/2 Bet365

Going straight into todays selections without bothering with the light chitchat i usually bore you with. Now, this is an exceptionally tight looking handicap taking place at one of the most picturesque flat courses the UK has to offer, Sandown Park. One horse stands out to me however, and that is Consign. Three year old’s have a fantastic record in this race having won 3 of the last 4 running’s and Consign has all the hallmarks of a horse that can play a serious part in the finish. After taking a classified event at Newmarket, he confirmed that form with a win at Windsor last time out. The 6lb rise he’s been lumbered with doesn’t look harsh in the context of this race given his current form, so he’s a seriously strong contender for the race.

The obvious danger is Estifzaaz, who made all the running last time out only to get pipped on the line, and escapes a penatly for his excursions. So beware that one.

I apologise in advance for the price of my 2nd runner..

Pearl Spectre 18:55 4/5 Boylesports Sandown

I’m not usually a fan of maidens if i’m honest, but this does have one potentially world class standout runner in it. Pearl Spectre a $600,000 purchase out of the sales at keeneland (USA) made a strong impression on debut when beaten just under a length by a Brain Meehan newcomer. The horse that beat it that day unfortunately went out last time and finished 8th, but that was in a group 2 at Newmarket in a race won by the unbeaten Good Old Boy Lukey. He went off 3rd favourite that day, so was fancied to do well. His breeding suggests progress is a given for Pearl Spectre.

Possible improvement could be expected from Mabdhool on his 3rd run, but we’re happy to stick with the odds-on fav.

Sad news has just been announced, St Nicholas Abbey has had a career threatening injury while on the gallops at Ballydoyle, this obviously means he’s out of the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday. We wish him well.

From a betting perspective this opens the door for the now 13/8 (from 5/2) favourite Cirrus Des Aigles to win the race. He has 11lbs in hand on official ratings over the rest of the field and we fully expect him to go off at around 4/6 on the day. If, like us, you missed the 5/2, don’t worry, the 13/8 (with Boylesports) should look big enough come the day. If he puts his best foot forward he should be a completely different class to this lot.

Onto todays racing..

Salvatore Fury 15:00 Mussleburgh 13/8 Sportingbet (NOT BOG) – 6/4 Bet365 BOG

Salvatore Fury won easily enough last week at Hamilton and despite a 6lb penalty should put in another bold performance. He seemed to win with a bit in hand last week that suggests a 6lb penalty may not be enough to stop him.

Secret Advice is the main danger, who beat Salvatore Fury by a nose the last time they raced each other, and she’s weighted to do it again.

Cut The Cards 16:45 Southwell 11/10 Skybet (NOT BOG) 1/1 Bet365 BOG

This is a fairly unoriginal selection, so i apologies for that in advance. The Jonjo ONeill trained 6 year old has a fantastic opportunity to clock up the 3 timer for champion jockey AP McCoy. He’s improved no end in 2 mile handicapers since the cheek pieces have been applied and can defy a penalty to complete a hat-trick.