Tag: Tony McCoy

Grand National Blog – Going favours Spring Heeled

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The Grand National meeting at Aintree gets under way on Thursday and the excitement is already building towards Saturday’s big race.

If you have been following our regular posts, you’ll know that we have been putting together an ante-post portfolio on the race. The ground seems to be drying out with the warm spell over Easter and that is good news for Spring Heeled, tipped here at 33-1 on 4th February. All has gone well with his preparation and Nick Scholfield takes the ride.

Cause Of Causes chased him home at Cheltenham last year and was added to our list at 33-1 after winning at this year’s festival. He has almost halved in price and Paul Carberry is expected to hunt him around on the first circuit and hope to creep into the race. If you are a fan of Tony McCoy, we added Shutthefrontdoor at 20-1 in anticipation of the champion jockey seeking a glorious send-off.

Our only other investment so far was on Monbeg Dude at 33-1 and we were disappointed with him in his latest trial. He would probably prefer softer ground but got round last year in seventh and connections are still to take their chance.

All of the leading bookmakers are now offering non-runner – no bet on the Grand National. There are also some enhanced place terms on offer with BetVictor paying each-way down to sixth place. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral and Totesport are sticking rigidly to the first four places so far but this may change with pressure form their rivals.

Royale Knight is currently the last horse guaranteed a run so anything below him in the list is relying on some late withdrawals. These include the David Pipe duo of The Package and Broadway Buffalo. The former is a veteran of past Nationals and won well at Cheltenham while Katie Walsh is desperately hoping that Broadway Buffalo can sneak in. She won the Irish Grand National on Monday but looks like missing out on Saturday’s race.

Whereas Cheltenham brings the best from Ireland and Britain together for the first time, Aintree tends to revolve around the festival form. There are smaller fields and (usually) Cheltenham form stands up pretty well. We have previewed day 1 separately with selections for all seven races.

Ante-post

Spring Heeled @33-1

Cause Of Causes @33-1

Monbeg Dude @33-1

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Aintree Thursday Preview

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The Betfred Bowl is one of four Grade 1 races in the opening day of the Grand National meeting at Aintree.

Tony McCoy is re-united with Jonjo O’Neill’s Holywell after being claimed to ride Carlingford Lough in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Holywell briefly looked threatening four from home but could only plug on at one pace into fourth behind Coneygree. That was still a fine effort, particularly as the rain-softened ground went against him.

He is a real spring horse with all of his seven career victories having come between January and April. He had won at the previous two Cheltenham festivals and also won here last year when slamming Don Cossack by ten lengths in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. The obvious danger is Silviniaco Conti who was a disappointing favourite in the Gold Cup. He bounced back to win this race last year and I expect to see Noel Fehily adopt more positive tactics than at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham form is also tested in the Aintree Hurdle at 3.25 when Arctic Fire lines up against Jezki. We tipped Arctic Fire at 25-1 for the Champion Hurdle so were delighted with his run in second place behind Faugheen. He holds Jezki on that form and McCoy’s mount is prone to pull too hard for his own good. The only question mark is whether Arctic Fire stays this longer trip but his style of racing suggests that he will.

McCoy should have register a victory in the McManus colours on Hargam in the Juvenile Hurdle. He was third in the Henderson-dominated Triumph Hurdle and was ten lengths clear of Devilment in fourth place. The green and gold colours have several chances on the card, notably with On The Fringe and Ned Buntline.

On The Fringe was always travelling best in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham and Nina Carberry has a great chance of landing the double here. He has yet to tackle these fences and a huge field of thirty is always a worry. If he settles over the first few fences, he is capable of following up. Ned Buntline gets a handy pull in the weights with Next Sensation for Cheltenham. He was fancied to give Tony McCoy a winning send-off but the ground was too soft for him.

Call The Cops is up 7lbs for his Pertemps Final victory but that may not be enough to prevent him from following up in the last. Vibrato Valtat tried to go after Un De Sceaux in the Arkle and had nothing left in the closing stages. He will be ridden with more restraint in the opener where he clashes with Josses Hill.

Vibrato Valtat 1.40 @9-4 Ladbrokes

Hargam 2.15 @Evens Bet365

Holywell 2.50 @15-8 Skybet

Arctic Fire 3.25 @2-1 Bet365

On The Fringe 4.05 @4-1 Bet365

Ned Buntline 4.40 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Call The Cops 5.15 @7-1 Ladbrokes

Katie Walsh wins Irish National on Thunder And Roses

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Punters will be hoping that the Aintree Grand National is a lot easier to solve than the Irish equivalent after Thunder And Roses took the Easter Monday feature at Fairyhouse at 20-1. He was followed home by Rule The World (20-1), Sizing Coal (40-1) and Band Of Blood (50-1). Tony McCoy finished sixth on Cantlow on his final ride in the race.

Thunder And Roses was an emotional success for Sandra Hughes who only took over the stables of her late father Dessie in November. He races in the colours of Gigginstown House Stud who had the first three jumping the last with only Sizing Coal’s late run preventing a 1,2,3. Katie Walsh has not ridden the horse previously and would not have taken much encouragement from his last run at Cheltenham where he unseated Jonny King.

Walsh came close to winning the Grand National on Seabass in 2012 when finishing third to Neptune Collonges but now faces an anxious wait to see if she has a ride this year. She has been provisionally booked to ride Broadway Buffalo for David Pipe but the gelding still needs five more horses to drop out. He is one of three David Pipe entries among the 65 left in with only Soll guaranteed a run. Cheltenham winner The Package is just one place above Broadway Buffalo and both could be re-routed to the Topham Chase if they do not make the cut.

It seems likely that Nina Carberry will be the only female rider in the race this year when she partners First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris. The stable will be full of hope after saddling the runner-up and the fourth on Monday, although naturally disappointed that neither could cling on for the victory. First Lieutenant is a high class performer and he will carry the hopes of a famous National double for Gigginstown in the National.

Sandra Hughes is another left anxiously waiting for the final cut with her entry, Raz De Maree. He needs just three runners to come out in order to sneak into the starting line up on Saturday. First Lieutenant is a top price 33-1 with Paddy Power while Broadway Buffalo is a general 50-1 chance. Most firms are now offering non-runner – no bet terms on the race. For the best each-way value, BetVictor are also paying out on the first six home at Aintree!

Fairyhouse Monday Preview

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We opened the Fairyhouse Sunday card with two winners but our treble was thwarted when Apache Stronghold unseated his rider in the Ryanair Gold Cup. Still, four winners out of six selections over the weekend is not a bad return.

We previewed the Irish Grand National last week and have two selections in Grand Jesture and Los Amigos. The former is entitled to run well after his fine run at the Cheltenham festival while Los Amigos has been trained for this race all season. It’s impossible to be confident in a race such as this but hopefully one of them can sneak into the money.

There is a good supporting card, kicking off at 2.45 with a four-year-old hurdle. Dicosimo is likely to start favourite here on the strength of his eighth place in the Triumph Hurdle. He led for a long way before being passed by the Henderson trio and Ruby Walsh was easy on him once his chance had gone. It is too early to say whether it was a vintage renewal of the Triumph so I’d prefer to take a chance on stable companion Whiteout at 10-1.

She has won her only start since joining Mullins from France where she was the winner of a modest claimer on the level. She had Sam Red back in third on her debut and that rival has won easily since. She has to be worth an each-way bet against the favourite.

Dedigout has won his last two races at Grade 2 level but missed Cheltenham as he did not get his favoured soft ground. He could probably do with a downpour before racing on Monday but he has won on yielding ground and should not be inconvenienced by the current conditions. Thousand Stars has not raced since the summer and could be vulnerable and I am more wary of Cheltenham runner-up Noble Endeavour. He moved well in the Martin Pipe Hurdle and was just beaten on the nod.

Tony McCoy treated his legion of followers to another fine display on Gilgamboa on Sunday and can chalk up another victory on Blair Perrone in the 4.25. He is trained by Mouse Morris and won last time without coming off the bridle. Connections considered a tilt at the Betfair Hurdle earlier in the season and he could be the value bet against some exposed Mullins-trained runners. There was little between Max Dynamite and Sempre Medici in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle and Ruby Walsh has switched from one to the other here.

Whiteout 2.45 @10-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

Dedigout 3.20 @9-4 Ladbrokes

Blair Perrone 4.25 @4-1 Bet365

Grand Jesture 5.00 @20-1 Betdaq (each-way)

Los Amigos 5.00 @ 14-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

Scoop6 Jackpot set to hit £1.25 million!

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The Scoop6 Jackpot is expected to be close to £1.25 million on Saturday after the win fund eluded punters for a sixth successive week. As you would expect, they have not made it easy for punters with a treacherous looking card at Haydock providing five of the six races plus one from Kempton. In truth, you will probably need psychic powers or a sharp pin to unravel this lot but we’ve done our best to provide a few pointers.

2.00 Haydock

The combination of soft ground and large fields is the order of the day at Haydock starting with a gruelling three and a half mile handicap chase. At first glance, Midlands National third Woodford County has plenty of weight but his rider takes off 7lbs, leaving him just 5lbs higher than the bottom weight. Richard Johnson looks a significant booking on Incentivise who is the only one of these to have won at the distance.

WOODFORD COUNTY, INCENTIVISE

2.25 Haydock

Hindon Road blundered away his chance in a three-mile hurdle at Newbury last time and should go well off 10 stone here for Alan King and Wayne Hutchinson. Tony McCoy will be a popular choice on Upswing who is closely weighted with Gold Futures on recent form but it may be worth taking a chance on Kim Bailey’s Net Work Rouge.

HINDON ROAD, NET WORK ROUGE

2.50 Kempton

This is the only race in the Scoop6 away from the minefield of Haydock. Queen Catrine is a big of an enigma having run a fine race at Royal Ascot but done nothing since. Lady Dutch looks an altogether more straight forward ride for the in-form Marco Botti stable.

LADY DUTCH, QUEEN CATRINE

3.10 Haydock

Back over the jumps for another marathon handicap. King Of The Wolds was an easy winner last time while Astigos makes some appeal off a low weight.

KING OF THE WOLDS, ASTIGOS

3.45 Haydock

It doesn’t get any easier later in the day with another big field for the 888Sport Handicap Chase. Bob Tucker is not the fastest thing on four legs but he keeps galloping while Canuspotit looks fairly treated on his best form.

BOB TUCKER, CANUSPOTIT

4.20 Haydock

If any of you are still standing at this point, Good Luck! Only ten to choose from here! Racing Post ratings put only 6lbs between first and last. Ustica clearly wasn’t himself last time out and is worth another chance while Royale Django stayed on stoutly at Southwell.

USTICA, ROYALE DJANGO

Totesport Scoop 6

Grand National 2015 – Aintree News Update

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The Aintree Grand National is less than two weeks away now and the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on Tony McCoy’s expected mount, Shutthefrontdoor. We forecast this over a month ago and recommended taking the 20-1 about last year’s Irish National winner. He is now as short as 6-1 in places, generally 7-1.

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been sending out mixed signals, understandably starting to feel the pressure of supplying McCoy’s final ride in the race. There have been heavy hints that the champion jockey will call time immediately on his riding career if he passes the post in front on April 11th.

All three of our other recommended each-way bets remain in contention. Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes are both now 20-1 from 33-1 while Monbeg Dude remains 33-1 after a poor prep run. Soft ground may improve the chances of Monbeg Dude, otherwise we may see him drift further in the betting.

Rocky Creek spearheads the Paul Nicholls runners and he could be joined by Unioniste, Rebel Rebellion and Mon Parrain. Last year’s runner-up Balthazar King is certain to be popular having by-passed Cheltenham this year in an attempt to go one better.

Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride the well-fancied The Druids Nephew after both Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell were ruled out through injury. It would be poetic justice for Coleman were he to pick up a spare ride and win the race, having chosen the wrong horse when Mon Mome won at 100-1 in 2009 under Liam Treadwell.

Alvarado will be bidding to continue the extraordinary run of the Rucker family who have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals, all ridden by Paul Moloney. He has had only one race since finishing fourth last year and is currently a top price of 25-1 with Coral.

I am surprised that both Lord Windermere and Many Clouds are heading to Aintree after running poorly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Leighton Aspell has been claimed to ride Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the ride on last year’s winner Pineau De Re. Lord Windermere ran a lifeless race at the festival and is burdened with top weight here with Robbie McNamara taking the ride.

Nina Carberry will ride First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris in a bid to become the first lady jockey to win the race. Katie Walsh has come closest so far, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.

Several firms are already offering five places in the National for each-way betting. They are: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Betfair and 32Red.