Cheltenham blog – McCoy savours Ryanair Chase glory

Tony McCoy stole the headlines on day 3 of the Cheltenham festival with a pillar-to-post victory aboard 16-1 shot Uxizandre in the Ryanair Chase.

McCoy, soon to be crowned champion jockey for the 20th time, had endured a couple of frustrating days but set out like a man on a mission on the gelding trained by Alan King. Uxizandre was second at this meeting last year and went on to win at Aintree. He had beaten Simply Ned and Dodging Bullets here in November but lost his way since. King fitted a visor for the first time here and it clearly had the desired effect.

McCoy admitted afterwards that he felt Uxizandre had gone to fast to keep up the gallop but he seemed to relax coming down the hill and had plenty in reserve to hold the well-backed Ma Filleule. It was a 31st festival winner for McCoy but he may not be finished just yet. He has five rides on the final day including Hargam (Triumph Hurdle), Carlingford Lough (Gold Cup) and Ned Buntline (AP McCoy Grand Annual).

Latest Offers

A reasonable assessment of the festival so far would be day 1 to the punters, day 2 all square, day 3 to the bookmakers. With the smallest field on offer on Friday being seventeen, I suspect that this will be the toughest day yet for punters.

Any way of gaining a small advantage is welcome and we have kept you updated on various offers throughout the week. Racebets have been making some generous offers to attract new customers all week. If you still haven’t done so, tomorrow they will give you 10-1 about Nicky Henderson training the winner of the Triumph Hurdle (maximum £5 bet).

That gives you the favourite Peace And Co, Tony McCoy’s mount Hargam and Betcirca’s each-way fancy Top Notch. The Mullins pair and Beltor are the most obvious threats to spoil the party but it could give you a very nice £50 balance in your account!

Market Movers

Quick Jack 2.05 (County Hurdle) 7-1 Stan James

Black Hercules 2.40 (Albert Bartlett) 4-1 Bet365

On The Fringe 4.0 (Foxhunter) 8-1 Paddy Power

Roi Des Francs 4.40 (Martin Pipe) 9-2 Bet365

Ned Buntline 5.20 (AP McCoy Grand Annual) 5-1 William Hill

Sandown Friday Preview

The racing has been pretty poor in the UK this week with Cheltenham looming on the horizon. The action perks up a little this weekend at Sandown with the Grand Military Gold Cup and Imperial Cup.

The Grand Military used to be a matter of picking the best jockey but the standard has definitely improved over the years. Paul Nicholls looks to have a strong hand this year with Howlongisafoot and Merrion Square and the market suggests that they will finish in that order.

Howlongisafoot ran well in a couple of handicap hurdles at the start of the season, finishing fifth at Cheltenham behind Unique De Cotte. The winner is a leading fancy for the Martin Pipe Hurdle next week at the festival. He ran here over fences in December and was beaten only a length and a quarter by Generous Ransom, another horse that is festival-bound.

He was well backed last time in a minor race at Taunton and beat Freckle Face by five lengths. He is only up 5lbs for that victory and should give Jody Sole a second winner in the race. He rode Merrion Square to victory here in 2013 but that horse may be in need of the outing this time. He was well beaten at odds-on at Worcester in August on his last start.

For the double I am going for Nicky Henderson’s Lessons In Milan in the handicap hurdle. It has not been the best season so far for the Lambourn trainer but his last four runners have won including 12-1 shot Hurricane Higgins on the flat. That augurs well for his runners next week including Peace And Co and L’Ami Serge.

Lessons In Milan is a lightly-raced seven-year-old by St Leger winner Milan out of a mare by Doyoun. He won a point-to-point in Ireland and was pitched in at Ascot on his debut against odds-on stable companion Out Sam. He was not disgraced in third and then romped to a 37-length victory at Lingfield. Admittedly it was a very poor contest but the handicapper has taken a chance by giving him a mark of 126 here.

His main danger will probably be Ustica for the Jonjo O’Neill – Tony McCoy combination. He has a similar profile but was far less impressive when scrambling home at Uttoxeter from Jalingo. The handicapper has rated him on the same figure as Lessons In Milan.

Howlongisafoot 3.25 @13-8 Paddy Power

Lessons In Milan 4.00 @3-1 Ladbrokes

Grand National 2015 ante-post update

The weights were announced on Tuesday for the Aintree Grand National and there were no real surprises. As expected, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere (11st 12lb) is at the top of the handicap alongside recent Irish Hennessy winner Carlingford Lough. Both horses are on target for the festival and I don’t expect either of them to line up at Liverpool.

Many Clouds is next on 11st 9lb and his participation will also depend on what happens at next month’s festival. Paul Nicholls is quite keen on the chances of Unioniste (11st 6lb) but he could end up shouldering top weight and really needs soft ground to show his best.

After Tony McCoy announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season, I highlighted the prospect of Shutthefrontdoor being the gamble of the race. Jonjo O’Neill’s Irish National winner was 20-1 at the time and has now been slashed to half those odds. If you did not get on early, I would not rush out to take the current odds.

Our other ante-post selections were Spring Heeled and Monbeg Dude (both tipped at 33-1). The former is likely to return to action this weekend at either Fairyhouse or Kempton. Connections have been avoiding running him so as to protect his handicap mark and he has been allocated 10st 12lb at Aintree. That looks a perfect racing weight and Jim Culloty will be happy to see him jump round safely in third or fourth this weekend.

I was not at all dismayed to see Monbeg Dude well beaten in the Haydock Grand National Trial on Saturday. He ran in the same race two years ago and came from another county to sneak into the frame. He is 2lbs better off than last year when finishing seventh in the big race and will know more about those big fences this time. Although his best form is on soft, it is not essential and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking any 33-1 that remains about him.

Pineau De Re and Balthazar King are back again after filling the first two places last year. The winner is up 8lbs but you’d have to expect that. I think that everything fell into place for him last season after that eye-catching run over hurdles at the festival. He will need to show something at the meeting again this year to warrant support.

Our Ante-post Portfolio;

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1 William Hill

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power

Bookies braced for McCoy factor

A busy racing weekend was completely overshadowed when Champion jockey Tony McCoy announced that he would be retiring at the end of the season.

Although there had been rumours of McCoy hanging up his riding boots for some time, the media seemed to be taken completely off guard following the victory of Mr Mole in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. Most eyes had been on former two-mile champion chaser Sire de Grugy who had blotted his copybook when unseating Jamie Moore. Even the day’s feature race, the Betfair Hurdle, was run in a strangely subdued atmosphere as racing tried to absorb the news.

McCoy, or “AP” as he is widely known, will be crowned champion jockey for the 20th consecutive time at the end of the season. Considering the high risk nature of his job, that is nothing short of remarkable. He has had his share of injuries over the years but has kept coming back for more. He has been part and parcel of the National Hunt scene for so long that he is bound to be sorely missed.

In the meantime, the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a surge of support for McCoy’s mounts for the rest of the campaign. His win on Carlingford Lough on Sunday gave us a taste of what to expect if, and when, he boots home a winner at the Cheltenham festival and Aintree. His Hennessy win was a vintage McCoy ride, recovering from a mistake to drive back up to his rivals and grind out an unlikely victory.

Carlingford Lough has already been cut to as short at 8-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup while he remains a more realistic 12-1 with William Hill. Shuttthefrontdoor is currently joint-favourite for the Grand National at 20-1. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill is planning on running him in the Gold Cup as well but Aintree is his number one target.

When McCoy ended his 15-year wait for a Grand National winner on Don’t Push It in 2010, bookmakers estimated that the champ had cost them around £50million. If Shutthefrontdoor gets to the National with McCoy in the saddle, he will almost certainly start favourite. Were he to end his career on such a high note, it would rate alongside the greatest racing memories like Dawn Run, Desert Orchid and Red Rum. It couldn’t possibly happen could it?

Carlingford Lough – Cheltenham Gold Cup @12-1 William Hill

Shutthefrontdoor – Grand National @20-1 William Hill

Wetherby Wednesday Preview

Wetherby stages an interesting card on Wednesday with several promising horses in action. The big stables are only just starting to introduce their better horses but Jonjo O’Neill is wasting no time in unleashing Fort Worth for his hurdling debut.

The gelding by Presenting was bought after finishing fourth in a point-to-point in Ireland and races in the colours of Messrs Magnier, Smith and Tabor. They don’t tend to invest too much in the National Hunt game so it is usually worth noting those that do carry their silks.

Fort Worth won with embarrassing ease at Huntingdon last November under Richie McLernon in a bumper on soft ground. It is true that the horse he beat has not managed to chalk up a success in five subsequent attempts but the style of Fort Worth’s victory suggests that he is worth following. The son of Presenting will need to be half-decent to beat Lady Buttons who was second at Aintree in the spring and also makes her hurdling bow.

The handicap hurdle at 3.25 also has several interesting horses including Goodwood Mirage for the O’Neill/McCoy team. He was bought to win a Triumph Hurdle but never looked likely to justify such high ambitions. He practically up-rooted a hurdle on the way to winning at Kempton and was brought down in his diverted target race, the Fred Winter Hurdle.

I am not convinced that he is in love with this game and the one that catches my eye is the grey Fair Loch. He has only had four races for Karl Burke but he impressed me when finishing third to First Mohican at Doncaster. Alan King had high hopes for the winner at the time and Fair Loch was bowling along on the bridle alongside two from home.

Things have not quite gone so well since but he has come up against some decent novices in Oscar Hoof and Yorkist. If Burke has him in good shape for his seasonal reappearance, he could go in at a decent price. Tidal Way was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time for Charlie Longsdon and he was going well when unseating at the seventh flight. That was a costly error and punters will be hoping to retrieve their cash with interest on Wednesday. He should go well but it was only a Bangor handicap and this looks tougher.

Tips

Fair Loch 3.25 Wetherby @8-1 Betfair

Fort Worth 4.35 Wetherby @3-1 Betfair

Grand National Trial Update

The scourge of ante-post betting is of course the dreaded non-runner. Monbeg Dude has been scratched from Saturday’s Haydock Grand National Trial because his scope was less than 100%. That’s thrown a spanner in the works but don’t rip up your ticket just yet, the meeting could yet be abandoned. At least we still have 8-1 about Hawkes Point who is now as short as 5-1 in places.

The most interesting development is the booking of Tony McCoy for our old friend Merry King. You may recall that we backed the horse each-way in the Hennessy (5th) and the Welsh National (5th). The old saying about follow them over a cliff springs to mind but it wouldn’t take a lot of improvement to win this.

On his last start he looked well beaten turning for home but then seemed to get his second wind and ran on to be a close third. That was with a first time visor and the jury is still out as to whether or not it helped. He is 4lbs better off with the winner Wychwoods Brook and it would seem daft not to include him each-way at 9-1.

Another old favourite of mine, Burton Port, was taken out along with Scottish National winner Godsmejudge. I would imagine that the likely heavy ground was the reason for both. I’ve seen a couple of speculative tips for Burton Port for the Grand National.

He is certainly well enough handicapped if he returned to the kind of form that enabled him to finish fourth in the Gold Cup. Unfortunately he hasn’t shown the slightest glimmer as yet this season but Donald McCain will do his best to rekindle the flame. I am not tempted in at this stage but he’s one to keep an eye on.

The other big weekend races, weather permitting, are the Ascot Chase and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. I don’t think either will have much of a bearing on the Cheltenham festival, although it will be interesting to see Zarkandar in action against Melodic Rendezvous. Paul Nicholls is aiming Zarkandar at the World Hurdle this season but he’s racing at two miles for his prep.

Captain Chris ought to win the Ascot Chase as he’s meeting lower rated rivals at level weights. Many of those are under a cloud including Riverside Theatre and Medermit. If there is a horse capable of causing a surprise it is probably Rolling Aces. For whatever reason, he folded tamely last time out but had previously won at Down Royal and showed some decent form last year.

Merry King (each-way) at 9-1 Coral