Tag: Toronado

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The highlight of Wednesday’s racing action is the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

My regular readers will know that I had a 16-1 ante-post interest in Kingman for the 2000 Guineas so it was very frustrating to see him beaten close home by Night Of Thunder. He reversed that form in some style at Royal Ascot after bolting up in the Irish Guineas and is clearly the top miler of his generation.

On Wednesday he is set to meet the four-year-old Toronado, a half-length winner of this race a year ago from Dawn Approach. He flopped when tried over a mile and a quarter but was back to his best when winning the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot last month.

Tactics are going to be vital here with both horses usually held up. There are only three other runners, two trained by Aidan O’Brien so it will be fascinating to see if he has any plans for Darwin and War Command. Outstrip ran much better at Ascot than at Newmarket and he is another that is suited by being dropped in behind. Providing the race does not develop into a crawl, Kingman should come out on top.

The card opens with a quick reappearance for Maid In Rio, one of our Ascot hat-trick on Friday. She was as easy a winner as you are every likely to see and gets in here with just a 3lb penalty. The handicapper would probably like to increase that by another 10 or 11lbs! The only question marks are the quick reappearance and the extra distance. She has another five furlongs to travel here but she won with her head in her chest last week and is impossible to oppose.

The Gordon Stakes is not the race it once was but still provides an interesting St Leger trial. Observational was very gutsy when winning here last time for Roger Charlton but connections would probably have liked to see a little more rain for him. Red Galileo was almost certainly flattered by his fifth in the Derby having been ridden to pass beaten horses.

I’m going to side with the Gosden and Buick team here with Cloudscape. He has disappointed before but finished to some effect at Ascot behind Cannock Chase and the likes of Snow Sky look vulnerable to a turn of foot. It would also make amends for Buick’s awful ride in this race a year ago when he was a fast finishing second.

Maid In Rio 1.55 Goodwood Wednesday

Cloudscape 2.30 Goodwood Wednesday @11-2 Paddy Power

Kingman 3.05 Goodwood Wednesday @4-7

Royal Ascot Tuesday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Royal Ascot kicks off on Tuesday and it will be interesting to see how it competes with the World Cup in Brazil. It will certainly lose some valuable column inches and I think Channel 4’s viewing figures will be down but none of that concerns the true racing fan.

The highlight of day 1 is undoubtedly the clash between Irish 2000 Guineas winner Kingman and his Newmarket conqueror Night Of Thunder. After Kingman’s effortless Newbury win in the Greenham I fully expected to collect on my 16-1 ante-post tip but 40-1 shot Night Of Thunder came to the bookies rescue.

With the benefit of hindsight, Night Of Thunder ran a perfectly good trial at Newbury but was no match for Kingman. He should not have been 40-1 but I have to favour Kingman to gain his revenge on Tuesday. Much has been made of the draw on Guineas day being a factor but Night Of Thunder did hang badly in the closing stages but still got up to win.

Tactics will play a part but there is only a small field and I’m guessing that Toormore will be allowed to dictate the pace with Kingman and Night Of Thunder held up behind. It should be a great race but Kingman can establish himself as the best miler of his generation.

Last year, Dawn Approach appeared to have done exactly that when holding off Toronado in the same race. Toronado finally got the better of him at Goodwood in the Sussex Stakes before flopping over a mile and a quarter at York. He reappears here and is the class horse in an otherwise modest renewal. He has not raced for 300 days so even money does not offer great value but he should win if sharp enough.

War Command was a brilliant winner of the Coventry Stakes 12 months ago and I doubt very much whether anything will win as easily this year. Adaay looks a nice colt and beat a speedy type in Mind Of Madness at Yarmouth. My only worry is that he may be run off his legs a bit early on and you can get some funny results in big fields here. I’m going to have a saver on Godolphin’s Portamento. He was well beaten on his debut but was slowly away and put up a much better show at Goodwood. He slammed a subsequent winner with ease that day and 16-1 is too big to refuse.

I’m not a great fan of the sprints at this meeting but the King’s Stand looks top class tomorrow. Sole Power, Shea Shea and Pearl Secret are all entitled to respect but Hot Streak won with a little in hand at Haydock and could have the legs of them. Oisin Murphy rode him that day but Jamie Spencer is back on board and just gets the verdict in a very tight race.

Toronado 2.30 Royal Ascot at Evens Paddy Power

Adaay 3.05 Royal Ascot at 6-1 Boylesports

Portamento 3.05 Royal Ascot at 16-1 Totesport

Hot Streak 3.45 Royal Ascot at 9-2 Paddy Power

Kingman 4.25 Royal Ascot at 11-10 Bet Victor

St James’s Palace Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The news that Dawn Approach will, after all, be running in the St James’s Palace Stakes has created quite a stir. Those of you with long memories may recall a similar “will he, won’t he” scenario with Jim Bolger’s New Approach ahead of the Derby in 2008. He was suddenly brought back into the equation with some punters having invested at huge prices on Betfair.

The news that the 2000 Guineas winner will line up on Tuesday has certainly helped to raise the excitement ahead of the meeting. Coral quickly announced that they will be treating all bets previously struck as being “without Dawn Approach”. That was very smart thinking and shows how much more “punter friendly” the bookies are these days. It certainly has not always been the case so full credit to them for acting so quickly.

So what are we to make of Dawn Approach after his Derby antics? It appears that the possibility of him attempting to bolt during the race had not even occurred to his connections, such was their confidence in his ability to settle. Kevin Manning certainly wasn’t expecting it and had already decided that he would need to “get after” Dawn Approach quite early in the Guineas to get him into top gear. Was it simply a case of a miler running in a mile and a half race? I have seen plenty of Guineas horses run in the Derby but cannot remember any of them running as freely as that.

Magician was expected to head for Epsom after winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but Aidan O’Brien dropped him back to a mile for the Irish Guineas instead. The decision was rewarded in spectacular fashion and he looks the obvious choice. O’Brien still has three other entries in the race whilst Bolger has Leitir Mor entered as a possible pacemaker. A crawl would not suit either of the market leaders to it seems safe to assume that there will be a decent pace on.

Toronado was thought to be Dawn Approach’s biggest rival at Newmarket and it looked like being a clash between the two with a furlong or so to run. However, Richard Hannon’s colt dropped out very tamely and was treading water at the line. Connections are adamant that he is a lot better than that and he will presumably be tucked in behind the pace.

The French raiders Mutin and Mshawish don’t look up to top standard and Dundonnell has had his limitations exposed in the past. The verdict has to be to stick with Magician until he is beaten. There are just too many question marks over Dawn Approach.

Magician 2-1 Boylesports

Newmarket 2000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

I am just back from a week away and have been catching up with the news. I thought that I had selected a pretty quiet week for a break but apparently not! The Godolphin doping scandal has rocked the racing world; most particularly Newmarket as it shudders at the thought of life after Sheikh Mohammed. Fortunately it seems that there is no immediate threat to his racing empire and Mahmood Al Zarooni has been hastily despatched back to Dubai on the back of an eight year ban. That all seemed to be dealt with rather too hastily and you can’t help but wonder what repercussions lie just around the corner.

It only seems like yesterday that we were trying (in vain) to work out the Grand National winner and here we are approaching the first classic of the new turf season! Godolphin may have lost the chance to run Certify in the 1000 Guineas but they still have the favourite for the first colt’s classic in Dawn Approach. He is trained in Ireland by Jim Bolger but there is no doubt that the Godolphin operation has been tainted by recent events and it would be ironic if they collect on Saturday. He was smart enough as a two-year-old but without a recent outing I am not remotely tempted by odds in the region of 11-8.

His victory in the Dewhurst Stakes was more workmanlike than spectacular and he briefly looked in trouble before responding to pressure to run down stable companion Leitir Mor. He was well on top at the finish but it did not look a vintage renewal. In third place that day was Aidan O’Brien’s George Vancouver who closed in to challenge before flattening out again in the last furlong. He has three and a half lengths to make up on Dawn Approach but put up a much improved effort to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf next time out. He was given a perfect ride by Ryan Moore that day, holding his position on the fence before being produced between horses in the short straight.

The chief market rival to the favourite is Richard Hannon’s Toronado. His front-running display in the Craven Stakes has seen his price collapse to 9-4 and you can understand why. Hannon rates him right up there with the best and he goes into the race fit and unbeaten. He also looks a straight forward ride and you would expect Richard Hughes to have him right up there from the outset. Whether or not 9-4 is great value is hard to say but he looks a major player.

Aidan O’Brien also runs Cristoforo Colombo and Mars with Joseph O’Brien preferring to ride the former. He looks tried and tested and the application of cheek pieces on Saturday does not inspire confidence. Mars is obviously a colt of enormous potential but seems well down the pecking order at Ballydoyle ahead of the first classic. I am a big fan of Garswood who did this column a favour when winning the Free Handicap in great style recently. Trainer Richard Fahey admitted that he had no idea whether or not he would stay the seven furlongs that day but he is apparently now full of hope that he will last the mile. As much as I like the colt, I must admit that it had occurred to me that he was a classic contender and I am slightly mystified by his price of 12-1.

Of the remainder, I like Moohajim but his run in the Greenham suggested that he will not stay a mile. He cruised into contention but found little under pressure behind Olympic Glory. He will presumably be held up to get the trip but it is difficult to be confident that he will do so. Toronado looks the most likely winner but I’m also going to recommend an each-way bet on George Vancouver at 16-1.

Toronado 9-4 William Hill
George Vancouver (each-way) 16-1 Paddy Power

Newmarket Craven Stakes Day Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Garswood kept up the good work for us on the opening day of the Craven meeting, running out a most impressive winner of the European Free Handicap. Such is the nature of racing these days that any horse that wins a half decent race is given quotes for everything from the Derby to the Boat race! However, I was surprised to see Garswood being quoted for the 2000 Guineas.

Before the race even trainer Richard Fahey had some reservations about whether or not he would stay seven furlongs. The colt dispelled those fears by winning with his ears pricked but you have to question whether or not it was classic form. I don’t think I shall be re-investing the winnings at 25-1 for the Guineas but he certainly looks one to follow.

Talking of re-investing winnings, Wednesday’s card poses a problem with our 9-1 Doncaster winner Move In Time turning out quickly for the Group 3 Abernant Stakes. At first glance this looks like a stiff task after winning a handicap off 95 on Saturday. Even if we give him a rating of 100 for his victory he still has to find at least 7lb with Captain Ramius, Hawkeyethenoo, Jimmy Styles, The Cheka and Tiddliwinks. Of those, Captain Ramius is race fit having chased home Jack Dexter at Doncaster but he might need seven furlongs on this better ground. I tipped Hawkeyethenoo when he won the Stewards Cup last season so I have plenty of time for his chances and The Cheka usually runs well fresh. With the bookies going 5-1 the field, I think I am going to have to put this race in the “too difficult” drawer.

A field of just four for the Craven Stakes is disappointing but they are all smart colts. Richard Hannon runs Havana Gold and Toronado and the vibes from the stable suggest that the latter is a genuine classic contender. Dundonnell and Tawhid are no slouches and this could be a very tactical affair. Another potential classic colt is on show in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy when Ghurair is expected to go off odds-on favourite. On official ratings he has the best part of a stone in hand on this lot but he is untried over a mile and a quarter. There are some promising types in the field, notably Luca Cumani’s Greatwood who looks sure to relish the extra distance. The stable had a runner in the Nell Gwynn Stakes today that ran very poorly so I shall keep a watchful eye on Greatwood for the time being.

The Nell Gwynn produced a 10-1 winner in Hot Snap, trained by Sir Henry Cecil. Although she beat a good sort in Sky Lantern it seems a little early to be making her 1000 Guineas favourite. Bookies slashed her odds to 5-1 from 40-1! Connections were apparently thinking about the Coronation Stakes as her main target before the race but will presumably run her at Newmarket now. I’d rather see the other trials before wading in at those sort of odds.

I do have one bet for Thursday and it is provided by Move In Time’s trainer David O’Meara. Bet365 have chalked up Sandy Lane at 2-1 for the 4.30 at Ripon tomorrow. The horse had the race won two furlongs out last time and could have won by fifteen lengths. Enough said!

Sandy Lane 4.30 Ripon 2-1 Bet365