Tag: Triolo D’Alene

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Preview

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Our Cheltenham ante-post bets have done us proud this week with a 64 points level stake profit on Wednesday’s wagers. It looked for a long way as if Cause Of Causes (tipped at 12-1) was going to give us another winner on Thursday but he pecked at the last and couldn’t make up the lost ground.

A shame to see Big Buck’s go out with a bit of a whimper after such a tremendous career. The Nicholls stable really aren’t enjoying the best of luck this week but perhaps Calipto and Silviniaco Conti will change that on Friday.

Our Triumph Hurdle hopes were dashed earlier in the week when Le Rocher was pulled out. Activial was also taken out, although we backed him on NR – no bet terms so get our stakes refunded. The same applies to Rocky Creek in the Gold Cup.

Silviniaco Conti has to be our leading hope tomorrow having taken 9-1 at the start of the season. He must have been first or second last year had he stood up at the last. Ruby Walsh was reluctant to comment last year but Nicholls was “gutted”. I’m a little concerned that the going may be on the fast side because that will suit Bobs Worth perfectly but they have started watering.

We also snapped up 40-1 about Triolo D’Alene before McCoy was booked. I must admit that I have always been a bit of a jinx for the champion jockey so this is a good opportunity for him to end the sequence. I have to admit that I am slightly sceptical about headlines such as “plunge horse”. He was 40-1 NR – no bet so that was the time for anyone to back him. Why wait for Henderson to declare him a definite runner and then be happy to take 16-1?

Last Instalment was briefly 14-1 after winning the Irish Hennessy and should run a big race but the ground is also a concern for him. Kings Palace was about the shortest ante-post bet we had on the festival and I still fancy him strongly, particularly as Pipe has now trained three festival winners. Cheltenian has a chance in the County Hurdle so plenty of opportunities to top up our winnings.

Friday

Ante-Post

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1, Activial 10-1

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca 16-1, Cheltenian 14-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1, Triolo D’Alene 40-1, Rocky Creek 33-1

Denman Chase Preview

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Once again we face a week of uncertainty as regards the prospects of racing at the weekend. The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Tote Gold Trophy, Schweppes Gold Trophy) is the big race of the week. Those who remember it as the Schweppes will be half expecting the meeting to be abandoned as it used to be even money whether or not the meeting would take place.

I have just read that one forecast has estimated 70mm of rain for the Newbury area. If that is true, we could be having a raft race instead! Assuming that particular forecast is wrong, let’s take a look at the Denman Chase.

The hot favourite here is the popular grey Al Ferof who was third in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. The thing about this one is that he is yet to win over three miles and it is personally reasonable to doubt his stamina. It is worth remembering that he won the two-mile Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and he has only had three starts in the past couple of seasons.

I’m certainly prepared to take him on but the question is with what? Triolo D’Alene is my long-term Grand National fancy and I’ve noted that Nicky Henderson has pulled him out of two races recently due to the heavy ground. The weights for the National are due out next week and I can’t see him risking getting a late hike in the weights.

Harry Topper interests me after running on stoutly to finish third behind The Giant Bolster and Rocky Creek in the Argento Chase. His jumping was a bit deliberate at times and it was a bit of a stop-go effort. Newbury should suit him better and he has to be respected.

However, after last weekend’s Venetia Williams benefit, I am going to side with Katenko. He was fancied by a few people to run a big race in the Gold Cup last year before injury intervened. I wouldn’t quite put him in that class but he loves this ground and ran a stormer in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock.

He kept plugging away and was not beaten far in fourth place, a marked improvement on his previous efforts. The Williams horses last weekend ran as though they had improved a stone overnight and Katenko only needs a few pounds to go close here.

Katenko at 6-1 Bet Victor

Grand National ante-post update

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The Grand National may seem a long way off with the excitement still building towards the Cheltenham festival but the entries were announced today. 115 horses have been entered for the £1million race including Tidal Bay and Long Run as expected.

This is good news for our earlier selections Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude as it means they will get in with 11st or less to carry. There are no real surprises in the list other than perhaps the number of older horses that are still being entered. One who won’t be there is last year’s 66-1 winner Aurora’s Encore after he suffered a nasty injury last weekend.

He’s been operated on for a fracture to his off-fore and all racing fans will be hoping that he makes a good recovery and gets the retirement that he deserves. I was a little surprised that he was kept in training this year. Neptune Collonges was promptly retired after his gallant success and it would have been nice to see Aurora’s Encore given the same courtesy.

Triolo D’Alene

Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene was installed as favourite after winning the Hennessy in November but hasn’t reappeared since. He was due to run at Ascot and Cheltenham but Henderson decided not to risk him on the heavy ground. He was not that happy with the 11lbs rise in the handicap after Newbury but he seems to be making sure that it doesn’t go any higher. I’d be surprised if we see him before the weights come out on February 11th.

The Hennessy form was not exactly franked by Rocky Creek’s defeat last weekend but I don’t believe  he was at his best. Paul Nicholls believes that a setback after Newbury took the edge off him and  he probably just blew up in the closing stages.

Monbeg Dude

At the start of the season I thought that Monbeg Dude would need heavy ground to win a National and that he may be on the small side for the big fences. I changed my mind after his impressive win at Cheltenham last time out where he jumped well and won a shade cosily on good to soft ground. He is still available at 25-1 in places and that seems a fair price for a Welsh National winner.

Godsmejudge

I’d like to put up Godsmejudge as my third early fancy for the race at 33-1 with Coral. He was pulled up last time at Sandown but the stable has been laid low with a virus and it seems safe to ignore that run. He had previously run very well at Cheltenham and he could provide Alan King with his first National success.

He really attacked his fences at Ayr when winning the Scottish National and he looks a proper Aintree sort if King can get him there in one piece.

*ante-post Triolo D’Alene 20-1

*ante-post Monbeg Dude 25-1

Godsmejudge at 33-1 Coral

Argento Chase Preview

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It was heavy going at Ascot and Haydock last weekend, in more ways than one! Our selections got bogged down in the mud with the exception of Sire De Grugy who advertised his chance in the Queen Mother Champion Chase with a classy victory.

I hope that some of you managed to get the 25-1 ante-post price on him for the festival! He is now a miserly 11-4 and I wouldn’t be backing him at those odds. I still have reservations about his jumping at Cheltenham and Sprinter Sacre could yet return to the peak of his powers. I’d be optimistic of some place money even if the favourite does still make it to the race.

I’m after some more ante-post value this week with Rocky Creek and Triolo D’Alene in the Gold Cup. Both horses are due to run in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. Paddy Power have already gone non-runner/no bet on the four championship races at the festival and you have to applaud them for it. Naturally, some of their prices are a bit skinny by comparison to the other firms but 33-1 with a run Rocky Creek for the big race will do me.

He has a lot of improvement to find if he is to be competitive with the likes of Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti but Paul Nicholls is no mug and was happy to fork out the entry fee. He gave the horse plenty of work ahead of the Hennessy Gold Cup and gave the impression that he was expecting a victory. In the event he had to settle for the runner-up spot behind Triolo D’Alene but time may show that to be a fair effort.

Having tipped Triolo D’Alene at 25-1 for the Hennessy, I’m reluctant to pass him over here but I just wonder about him if the ground gets really soft. Henderson was quick to pull him out of the Ascot race won by Houblon Des Obeaux and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him diverted again here. BetVictor are also offering a refund on non-runners for Cheltenham and go 40-1 about Triolo D’Alene for Cheltenham.

I was hopeful that Theatre Guide would boost the Hennessy form when he ran at Cheltenham last time but he found Monbeg Dude in excellent form. I must admit that I had the Dude down as something of a mud lark but he looked a different horse that day and readily accounted for Theatre Guide.

Rocky Creek at 5-2 Paddy Power

Ante-post Cheltenham Gold Cup* Non-runner no bet

Rocky Creek at 33-1 (each-way) Paddy Power

Triolo D’Alene at 40-1 (each-way) BetVictor

Ascot Saturday Preview

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Irving (tipped at 11-4) gave us a profit on the opening day of Ascot’s Ladbroke Hurdle meeting. He may have had a race on his hands had Prince Siegfried stayed on his feet but there is no doubt he is Cheltenham material. Coral are offering 16-1 about him for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in March so I’m taking some of that before it disappears!

It seems that nobody has a clear opinion on the Ladbroke itself with the bookies now offering 9-1 the field! We could even have 10-1 the field tomorrow until they move in to shorten up the favourites. I don’t see any reason to desert Dell Arca (10-1) whilst Flaxen Flare should also give us a run for our each-way money at 16-1.

The pick of the supporting card is the Ascot Silver Cup in which Triolo D’Alene reappears after his Hennessy triumph. Barry Geraghty triggered a few sniggers amongst the racing hacks when suggesting a rise of 3-4lbs would be fair after Newbury. The handicapper wasn’t fooled for a moment and has lumped on 11lbs tomorrow.

The French import was always travelling well that day and the result wasn’t in doubt from the moment they turned in. I fully expect him to run well tomorrow but I’m swayed towards Houblon Des Obeaux who is now 3lbs better off with a horse that he beat by nine lengths here last time. It’s a case of my head ruling my heart as Venetia Williams’s horse is also 13lbs better off with Triolo D’Alene for Newbury.

My concern is that Houblon Des Obeaux may have lost his form a little but the evidence suggests that he loves Ascot. He was also second to Rocky Creek here last season as a novice and looks good value at 4-1 with everything in his favour. Having backed Triolo D’Alene for the Grand National, I’ll be delighted if he jumps around in second or third before taking a break until the spring.

The Long Walk Hurdle has lost a lot of interest with Celestial Halo having to be withdrawn through injury. At Fishers Cross may have struggled to beat him here but has a much easier task now and it will be disappointing if he cannot pick up Reve De Sivola and Salubrious.

I cannot get excited about the Haydock card. The Tommy Whittle Chase used to be extremely competitive but this looks a poor renewal and is best left alone.

Houblon Des Obeaux 4-1 Bet365

Ante-Post – Irving 16-1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Coral