Tag: Triple Crown

Kentucky Derby Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Kentucky Derby is probably the most eagerly awaited race of the season in the United States. The first leg of the American Triple Crown could see a new star emerge and it is Bob Baffert who holds the aces with both first and second favourite.

American Pharoah was made hot favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last season only to miss the race through injury. He was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes in September and the third horse, Texas Red, went on to take the glory at Santa Anita.

He reappeared at Oaklawn in March and swept to an easy six and a quarter length victory followed by an effortless win in the Arkansas Derby. His stable companion Dortmund is an enormous colt by Big Brown and is unbeaten after six races. He got the better of Firing Line by a head in December and repeated the performance in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes. He made all to win by four and a quarter lengths last time in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and it will be interesting to see how he handles this big field.

Todd Pletcher runs three here with Breeders’ Cup runner-up Carpe Diem looking the most likely. He has won both of his races this season impressively, winning the Blue Grass Stakes by three lengths last time out. Stable companion Materiality is unbeaten after three races and showed good form to beat Upstart in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Firing Line won the Group 3 Sunland Derby last time out, a thoroughly deserved success after two fine tussles with the mighty Dortmund. He is priced at 12-1 under Gary Stevens while Baffert’s horse is around 7-2 so there could be some each-way value there.

Backing Meydan form here is something of a risk but Mick de Kock’s Mubtaahij could also be worth supporting at decent odds. The son of Dubawi was unlucky to be beaten in the UAE 2000 Guineas but made no mistake last time when bolting clear in the UAE Derby to win by eight lengths. Christophe Soumillon takes the ride on him.

This looks a really competitive renewal and there is bound to be a furious pace. The draw could be a concern for American Pharoah’s supporters but he looks a straight-forward ride and is the one to beat.

Tips

American Pharoah @3-1 Paddy Power

Mubtaahij @12-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Belmont Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Coverage of American racing has never really taken off over here. It is hardly surprising given the vast amount of domestic racing we have to plough through. However, we do sit up and take notice when it comes to the Triple Crown races and the Breeders’ Cup.

Tonight sees the 145th running of the Belmont Stakes and it is being billed as a clash between Kentucky Derby winner Orb and Preakness winner Oxbow. The betting upholds the general view that veteran jockey Gary Stevens was allowed to steal the Preakness from the front and the placings will be reversed this time.

The latest weather reports from Belmont suggest that there is a real possibility of the race being run on a similarly sloppy surface to that at Churchill Downs. This should not inconvenience Orb and there seems to be plenty of confidence that he can return to winning ways tonight.

Another problem for Oxbow is that he is likely to be challenged for the early lead by the striking chestnut Freedom Child. This colt won the Peter Pan Stakes by over 13 lengths in “slop” last time out and connections have already declared their intention to try to run their rivals ragged. You have to admire their candour. All too often we are left cursing the riders of well-backed favourites for holding up their mounts and getting boxed in or leaving them too much ground to make up.

That won’t be an issue for supporters of Freedom Child at Belmont Park. I watched a video of him sluicing through the slop and he had his rivals cooked well before the turn. Apparently the track will be rolled and sealed for the water to drain off but there seems every likelihood that it will be testing. The danger is that the front two may cut each other’s throats and set the race up for Orb but he is also stepping up in trip.

The filly Unlimited Budget also has form on this kind of surface and represents the stable that sent out Rags To Riches to be the first filly to win the Belmont in over 100 years. Her pedigree suggests that she may struggle to get the mile and a half.

She is trained by Todd Pletcher who saddles five in the race, presumably he is the American equivalent of Aidan O’Brien! The pick of them seems to be Revolutionary who was third in Kentucky and has been supported into 9-2 this week. He also saddled five at Churchill Downs but is having another crack at Orb here.

Unlimited Budget will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik who is trying to emulate Julie Krone, winner of the 1993 Belmont on Colonial Affair. Napravnik has already set a new best placing for a girl with her fifth in the Derby and third in the Preakness. Win or lose, she will certainly become the first female rider to compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown in the same year.

It all adds up to an interesting contest and I’m going to put my faith in the front-running Freedom Child at odds of 7-1.

Freedom Child 7-1 Stan James