The Greatwood Hurdle is the big betting race at Cheltenham on Sunday, for which the bookmakers have made Nicky Henderson’s Vaniteux the clear favourite.
Their odds are based on his excellent third behind Vautour in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the festival meeting in March. Many pundits consider Vautour a live prospect for the Champion Hurdle this season so it is easy to understand their reasoning.
It looked a good quality renewal of the Supreme with Josses Hill, a stable companion of Vaniteux, finishing in second and Irving and Gilgamboa among those well beaten. Henderson rates Vaniteux very highly but it may be worth remembering that he has only raced four times for Henderson and must carry top weight of 11st 12lb.
With the going certain to be testing, I would rather side with something at the other end of the handicap and Clondaw Warrior catches the eye. He is trained by Willie Mullins and won the November Handicap on the flat on his most recent start. That victory was off a mark 34lbs higher than his official rating when joining the Mullins stable.
He is yet to race over hurdles for his new stable but if he shows anything like the same improvement as he has displayed on the flat, he looks very leniently treated. Mullins has also declared Daneking but most bookmakers are offering non-runner/no bet on the race. He makes plenty of each-way appeal here at 8-1.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Goodwood Mirage tended to walk through his hurdles last season but showed more respect for them under a good ride from McCoy at Wetherby on his seasonal debut. He was useful on the flat but just seems too close to the top weight after a hefty 9lbs rise. Garde Le Victoire is also prone to clout a couple of flights and did so again when beaten by Hawk High at Aintree last time.
David Pipe relies on Imperial Cup winner Baltimore Rock but he is now 15lbs higher in the weights than when winning at Sandown. Pearl Swan was a promising novice for Paul Nicholls a couple of seasons ago but surely cannot overcome an absence of almost two years. His stable companion Katgary ran poorly at Aintree and will need to improve to figure here.
Vaniteux should run well but I am siding with Clondaw Warrior to make the weight tell in the closing stages and take the prize back to Ireland.
Clondaw Warrior @8-1 Bet365
Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4
